Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JULY 20, 2023Greetings, traders! Welcome back to our daily Market Analysis. Today, we have gathered the top news and interesting fundamental analysis for your consideration. Let's dive in and stay informed!
The market digests positive earnings reports and economic optimism, driving various assets higher. Among them, the Australian Dollar surges on the back of robust employment data. Investors are analyzing corporate earnings reports and economic indicators to gauge the health of the global economy.
The Australian Dollar has seen significant gains following the release of strong employment data, indicating positive economic momentum in the country.
Key News:
USA - Initial Jobless Claims
USA - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
USA - Existing Home Sales (Jun)
On Wednesday evening, Dow futures experienced a decline, following the earlier surge in major benchmark averages, reaching new 15-month highs. Traders were closely analyzing the quarterly earnings results of significant companies reported during the session. The market was in the process of digesting this corporate financial data to assess its potential impact on future trends.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index daily chart
Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a positive outlook on the current economic conditions in the United States, which was well-received by the markets. The decreasing inflation has fostered optimism about the US economy's potential for a smooth landing. Yellen's confidence in the labor market cooling down without significant distress has further contributed to this positive sentiment.
If economic data continues to support this optimistic view, the market is likely to maintain confidence in a soft economic landing, leading to a gradual decline in the value of the US dollar. The S&P 500 index experienced a 0.7% increase yesterday, approaching levels last seen in early April when inflation concerns were more pronounced.
S&P 500 daily chart
The recent retail sales data from the US also supports the idea of a soft economic landing, with consumer spending showing growth, albeit at a slower pace. Despite this positive economic outlook, the yen is currently underperforming, as carry trades gain favor in the market. In Japan, the TOPIX index experienced a 1.0% increase, and the 10-year swap rate retreated after reaching highs earlier this month, surpassing 0.70% on Friday for the first time since March.
TOPIX daily chart
Governor Ueda's comments at the G20 summit in India have played a role in the recent rebound of USD/JPY and the decline in longer-term yields. His statement emphasized that achieving the 2% inflation goal is still a distant prospect, reaffirming the unchanged assumption reiterated in the overall narrative.
USD/JPY daily chart
The market's response to Governor Ueda's comments has tempered speculation about an immediate yield curve control (YCC) change in the upcoming week. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might still make adjustments to YCC during the July meeting based on updated forecasts. Although yields currently show no upward pressure and are within the 0.50% band limit, the upcoming CPI data on Friday will be pivotal and could reignite speculation depending on the results.
On Thursday, the Australian dollar saw a substantial surge after the release of better-than-expected employment data in the country. Australia's net employment rose by 32,600 in June, exceeding market expectations for the second consecutive month of a 15,000 increase. As a result of this positive economic news, the Australian dollar surged more than 0.9% to reach an intraday high of $0.6834.
AUD/USD daily chart
On the other hand, the British pound suffered notable losses due to disappointing inflation data that fell short of market expectations. As a result, the market's anticipation of further aggressive interest rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) diminished. However, the pound managed to stage a slight recovery, gaining 0.15% to trade at $1.2958, after experiencing a decline of over 0.7% on the previous day.
GBP/USD daily chart
The euro, on the other hand, strengthened by 0.24% against the US dollar, reaching $1.1227. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting for additional insights into the rate outlook. Recently, ECB policymakers have adopted a more dovish stance, with some indicating uncertainty about future rate increases beyond the likely 25 basis points increase expected in July.
Dailyanalysis
ADA 4HInterwal Resistance and SupportHello everyone, I invite you to review the ADA chart in pair to USDT, also on a four-hour interval. First of all, using the blue lines, we can mark the local downtrend channel in which the price is currently moving.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. And as you can see, we have the first support at $0.29, then we have a support zone from $0.27 to $0.26.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first significant resistance at $0.33, and then the price needs to break the resistance zone from $0.35 to $0.37.
The CHOP index indicates that there is a lot of energy harvested. The MACD indicator indicates a transition to a local uptrend. On the other hand, on the RSI we are in the middle of the range, which makes it difficult to turn the direction of the price, but adding the collected energy and entering the uptrend on the MACD, we can see an attempt to increase the price.
BTC Daily Review 4HIntervalHello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on the BTC pair to USDT, taking into account the four-hour interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the downtrend line from which the price has moved sideways.
Now we can move on to marking the places of support in the event of a correction. And here, in the first place, it is worth marking support at $29248, but when we go lower, we still have a strong support zone from $28696 to $28266.
Looking the other way, in a similar way, using the trend based fib extension tool, we can determine the places of resistance. And here the first resistance is at $30,242, then we have the resistance zone from $30,758 to $31,114, however, before any major increases, the price must break the resistance at $31,581.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that there is a lot of energy for the upcoming move, the MACD indicator indicates entering a local uptrend, while the RSI is moving in the lower part of the range, which may bring the price up in the coming hours.
BTC/USDT 1Hinterval support and resistanceHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on one hour time frame, the price is trading below the local falling trend line.
To check the supports, we will use the trend based fib extension tool and as you can see, the first significant support is at $29,481, and then we have strong support at $29,306.
Now let's move on from the resistance line, as you can see the price fights the resistance at $29783, then we have a strong resistance zone from $29930 to $30038 and then resistance at $30172.
The CHOP index indicates that there is energy for further movement, the MAC maintains a downward trend, and the rsi is moving under the downtrend line, only when we exit it can we see the price increase.
ETC/UST 1D ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to review the ETC chart on the one-day interval. As we can see, the price did not manage to stay on the downtrend line and was quickly reversed.
After unfolding the Fib Retracement grid, we see that the price is holding just below the support at $19.19, the next support is at $16.69, then the third support at $14.84, and when we go lower we have a fourth very strong support at priced at $12.57.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the first significant resistance is at $21.67 with the downtrend line, then resistance at $24.15 and then the price will move to resistance at $27.26.
At this point, it is worth including the EMA Cross 200, which indicates that the ETC attempted to return to a strong uptrend, but it was a false break and a quick return.
The CHOP index indicates that there is a lot of energy for the upcoming move, the MACD indicates the continuation of the downward trend, while the RSI has approached the middle of the range, so the move will be based on BTC price jumps.
Hello everyone, I invite you to review the BNB/USDT 4H ChartHello everyone, I invite you to review the BNB chart against USDT, also on a four-hour timeframe. First of all, using the blue lines, we can mark the uptrend channel in which the price is currently moving in the lower part, it is also worth marking the local downtrend line with the yellow line.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the trend based fib extension tool to mark support, and first we will mark a strong support zone in which the BNB price is currently located, but when it falls below this zone, the next support is at $ 233.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first strong resistance at the price of $ 249, and then it is worth marking a very strong resistance zone from $ 257 to $ 262, only when the price breaks out of it and then positively tests, we will see further increases.
The CHOP index indicates that the energy has been used. The MACD indicator maintains an ongoing downtrend. On the other hand, on the RSI we have a strong rebound to the lower part of the range, which creates room for a future price increase, but it is worth being careful because there is room for the price to go a little lower.
BTC/USDT 4HInterval ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on the BTC pair to USDT, taking into account the four-hour interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the local sideways trend channel where the price is at its lower border, while using this line we can mark the downtrend lines in the current channel where the price is higher with a sideways move.
Now let's move on to determining the resistance, for this we will use the trend based fib extension tool and as we can see the first significant resistance is at the price of $30705, then we have a strong resistance zone from $31220 to $31591, and only then the price will move towards the resistance at priced at $32,052.
Looking the other way, we can also mark support places for BTC, as you can see the first support is at $29687, and then we can mark a very strong support zone from $29227 to $28897.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index, which indicates that there is a lot of energy for the upcoming move, the MACD indicator remains in a downward trend, but is close to changing the trend, and after reacting, we have a sideways movement on the RSI with the place for the price to move towards the first resistance.
Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 17, 2023Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 17, 2023
Key events:
China - Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Eurozone - ECB's Lane Speaks
USA - NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul)
Friday witnessed a modest dip in US stocks, yet investor optimism prevailed amidst signs suggesting a prolonged era of disinflation. With contemplation on interest rates, market performance, and Federal Reserve decisions, the prevailing sentiment remained buoyant.
NASDAQ Indices daily chart
S&P500 Indices daily chart
Dow Jones Indices daily chart
Market sentiment reflects a growing confidence in the potential for a smooth economic landing. Yields have witnessed a notable decline, particularly towards the week's end, driven by factors widely regarded as favorable. Investors are recalibrating their expectations by removing inflation premiums, rather than assuming imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as a response to inflationary pressures.
The unexpected decrease in US CPI has triggered market reactions, resulting in a narrowing of US-EU front-end rate spreads and a deepening inversion in US front-end rates. However, with the alleviation provided by the inflation drop and indications of progress towards a gentle economic landing, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current stance and refrain from significant rate adjustments for the next 12 months. Consequently, the US Dollar is not expected to undergo a substantial depreciation.
US Dollar Currency Index
In terms of the rates outlook, there is limited divergence observed within a significant portion of the broad Dollar index. Many policymakers in emerging markets (EM) are already taking action in response to the lower inflation environment. The Eurozone is anticipated to follow suit, aligning its rate adjustments accordingly.
While US rates were predominantly influenced by domestic factors, there were indications towards the end of the week that Eurozone rates were starting to respond. This suggests that developments in the US economy and relief from inflation are beginning to influence global rate trends, including those in the Eurozone.
The upcoming second-quarter earnings season is set to commence, with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) being the first among the prominent growth and technology companies that have been the driving force behind the US stock market's performance this year. Tesla's earnings report is scheduled for Wednesday.
Tesla stock daily chart
Tesla is a prominent member of the "Magnificent Seven," a group of colossal stocks that includes Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META). These companies have experienced remarkable share price surges ranging from 40% to over 200% this year, playing a significant role in driving the overall rally of the S&P 500.
While the market rally appears to be extending to other sectors, it's crucial to acknowledge that these substantial gains have been accompanied by high earnings expectations. Failure to meet these expectations by Tesla or any of the other megacap companies during this quarter's earnings reports could have a severe impact on equity indices.
In addition to Tesla's earnings report, several other major companies are scheduled to disclose their results in the upcoming week. The banking sector's earnings season continues, with Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) announcing its results on Tuesday and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) on Wednesday.
Tuesday will also see the release of US retail sales data for June, with an anticipated 0.5% increase attributed to a recovery in auto sales and higher gasoline station sales. This indicates that consumer demand remains resilient despite certain challenges.
Investors will also closely monitor reports on regional manufacturing activity, which is expected to remain sluggish. Furthermore, the weekly data on initial jobless claims will provide insights into the current state of the job market.
US Retail Sales
Wednesday will see the release of the UK's June inflation data, a significant factor that will impact the potential magnitude of the Bank of England's next interest rate increase.
It is expected that the headline consumer price index will moderate to 8.2% year-over-year, down from May's 8.7%. This easing is mainly attributed to a decrease in food and fuel prices. While core inflation is anticipated to show a slight decline, the services component is expected to remain stable at a post-COVID high of 7.4%.
GBP/USD daily chart
In the minutes of the June meeting, the Bank of England emphasized the potential need for further tightening if the economy demonstrated sustained inflationary pressures, particularly in the services consumer price index (CPI).
Consequently, the upcoming August meeting of the Bank of England is expected to be closely contested. Should there be an increase in the services CPI, it would likely strengthen expectations for another 50-basis point rate hike. Conversely, a lower reading would likely shift the balance towards a more modest 25-basis point increase. The inflation data will hold substantial sway in shaping the central bank's decision regarding future adjustments to interest rates.
BTC/USDT Short-Term 1HInterval ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart in one hour time frame. As you can see, the price has broken out of the local downtrend line.
After unfolding the trend based fib extension mesh, we see that the price has bounced off the strong resistance at $30,442, and when it breaks the next resistance is at $30,550.
Looking the other way, we see that the first support is at $30,318, then you can mark a strong support zone from $30,238 to $30,182, and then support at $30,114.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we can see that the energy is almost used up, the MACD confirms the local uptrend and the RSI has a significant increase, however, there is some room for the price to go a little higher.
BNB 4HInterval ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the BNB to USDT chart on a four-hour time frame. As you can see, the price has moved above the downtrend line.
After unfolding the Fib Retracement tool, we see that the first support is at $247.82, then we have a strong support zone from $245 to $243, and then support at $240.97.
Looking the other way, it is worth first marking the resistance zone from $ 253 to $ 256, and then the support at $ 261.37.
The CHOP index indicates that there is energy for a further move, the MACD remains in a downtrend, and the RSI has a sideways move around the middle of the range, which may result in a slight upward move in price.
ETH/USDT 4HInterval Daily ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, also on a four-hour interval. First of all, using the blue lines, we can mark the uptrend channel in which the price is currently moving at its upper border.
When we turn on the EMA Cross 200, we can see that it held the price nicely at the time of the correction.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. Here the first support we should take into account is at $1973, then we will mark the strong support zone from $1935 to $1911, however when the price breaks down from it we have another support at $1877.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first very strong resistance at $2063, then we have a strong support zone from $2110 to $2144, only when the price goes up, it will move towards the resistance at $2188.
The CHOP index indicates that the energy has been used. The MACD indicator confirms the uptrend. However, on the RSI we crossed the upper limit, which gives us moments of recovery.
BNB/USDT Short-Term ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the BNB to USDT chart on a one hour time frame. As you can see, the price has broken out of the local downtrend line.
After unfolding the trend based fib extension mesh, we see that the first support is at the price of $ 239.8, the second at the price of $ 236.5. third at $233.3, and fourth at $228.7.
Looking the other way, you should first mark the resistance zone from $247 to $250, and then the second zone from $254 to $257.
The CHOP index indicates that there is a lot of energy to move, MACD is on the verge of returning to the downtrend, and we have a rebound on the RSI, but there is room for the price to go lower.
ETH/USDT Daily Review 4HIntervalHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, on a four-hour interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the downtrend line from which the price went up. It is also worth mentioning that after turning on the EMA Cross 200, we can see that the moving average of 200 held the price before falling further.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark the supports, and as you can see, we have the first support at $1843, the second support at $1801, and then we can mark a very strong support zone from $1760 to $1701.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here the first strong resistance that the price is currently fighting is $1882, then we can mark a very strong resistance zone from $1944 to $2030, and when it manages to break out above, the price will be able to move towards the resistance at the previous high of $2140.
The CHOP index indicates that there is still energy to continue the movement. The MACD indicator confirms the local uptrend. On the other hand, the RSI is moving around the middle of the range, which may indicate that there is still room for the price to break out of the first resistance.
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LTC/USDT Review 4H Analysis Hello everyone, welcome to the LTC review on a four-hour interval. Currently, with the help of blue lines, we will mark the downtrend channel, from which the price is fighting for an upper exit.
Now let's move on to marking the support spots for the price and we see that the price is currently holding a very strong support at $94.76, however when it leaves the support below, we can see a drop to the second support at $82.24.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the first resistance is at $99.53, then we have the second resistance at $104.49, and then price needs to break a strong resistance zone of $108 to $112.
The CHOP index indicates that most of the energy has been used, the MACD is struggling to return to the local uptrend, while the RSI is moving in the lower part of the range, which may also affect the reversal of the uptrend.
BNB/USDT 1DReview Resistance an SupportHello everyone, welcome to a review of the BNB vs. USDT pair, taking into account the one-day timeframe. First of all, using the blue lines, we can mark the sideways trend channel in which the price is currently approaching its upper limit.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark support, and here we will first mark the strong support zone from $234 to $228, however, if the price falls below this zone, we can see a drop to around $220.4.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we see that the price is moving towards the upper border of the channel, where we have a strong resistance zone from $244 to $250, only when we exit it upside, we can attack the resistance at $256.8.
Index CHOP indicates that there is still energy to continue this movement. The MACD indicator, despite corrections in the channel, maintains an upward trend. On the other hand, on the RSI we approached the middle of the range, despite everything we can see an attempt to attack the first resistance zone.
XRP/USDT 1D Review ChartHello everyone, welcome to the XRP chart review on a one-day timeframe. As we can see after defining the uptrend line, the price has fallen slightly below, but remains close to this line.
Let's start by marking the support areas for the price and we see that first we have a support zone from $0.45 to $0.42, which is holding the price so far, but if the zone is broken, the next support is at $0.39.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the price is currently bouncing off the $0.48 resistance. Then we can mark a resistance zone from $0.51 to $0.52, and a second very strong zone from $0.54 to $0.57.
The CHOP index indicates that a lot of energy has been collected, the MACD is struggling to return to the downtrend, while the RSI has a further rebound, which may positively affect the change of the price direction to an upward one.
ETH/USDT ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the ETH to USDT chart on a single day time frame. As you can see, the price has fallen below the local uptrend line.
After unfolding the trend based fib extension grid, we see that the price stayed in the first support zone from $1864 to $1828, and then there is the second support zone from $1793 to $1742.
Looking the other way, we will check the resistances in the same way and here we see that the price must first break the resistance zone from $1909 to $1959, when it breaks it it will move towards the second zone from $2041 to $2101.
The CHOP index indicates that there is a lot of energy for a move, the MACD is on the verge of returning to a downtrend, while the RSI has a pullback to the middle of the range, which may translate into an upward price move.
XRP/USDT Review 1DayInterval Hello everyone, I invite you to review the BNB chart on a one-day timeframe. As we can see after defining the uptrend line, the price has fallen slightly below, but remains close to this line.
Let's start by marking the support areas for the price and we see that first we have a support zone from $0.45 to $0.42, which is holding the price so far, but if the zone is broken, the next support is at $0.39.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the price is currently bouncing off the $0.48 resistance. Then we can mark a resistance zone from $0.51 to $0.52, and a second very strong zone from $0.54 to $0.57.
The CHOP index indicates that a lot of energy has been collected, the MACD is struggling to return to the uptrend, while the RSI has a further rebound, which may positively affect the change of the price direction to an upward one.
Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY JULY 07, 2023Key News:
USA - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun)
USA - Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)
USA - Unemployment Rate (Jun)
During Thursday's trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a decline as robust job market data sparked expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This development subsequently led to a surge in Treasury yields, which raised concerns among market participants. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a notable decrease of 1.1%, resulting in a loss of 366 points. Similarly, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 also faced declines of 0.8% and 0.8% respectively.
NASDAQ, SPX, and DJI indices daily charts
Amidst the broader market decline, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) bucked the trend and achieved a gain of nearly 1% driven by optimism surrounding its advancements in artificial intelligence (AI). Morgan Stanley, a prominent financial institution, expressed confidence in Microsoft's position within the software industry, particularly in relation to the projected $90 billion growth opportunity in generative AI by fiscal 2025. In light of this positive outlook, Morgan Stanley increased its price target on Microsoft from $355 to $415, indicating a favorable investment potential for the company.
Microsoft stock daily chart
Despite the launch of its Twitter competitor app called Threads and the announcement by Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg that it had garnered over 30 million sign-ups since its recent introduction, Meta (formerly known as Facebook) faced a reversal of its early-day gains. The company's stock failed to maintain its upward momentum, and the gains dissipated as the trading session progressed. The market response to Threads and Meta's overall performance suggests that investors and traders may have reacted differently to the news, leading to the subsequent decline in the stock price.
Meta Platforms stock daily chart
In the Eurozone, inflation expectations for the medium term experienced a decrease in May. The gauge measuring the 12-month expectation dipped from 4.1% to 3.9%. Despite this decline, the long-term (three-year) inflation expectations, which hold greater significance for the European Central Bank (ECB), remained unchanged at 2.5%. This level is notably higher than the ECB's target inflation rate of 2%.
The latest flash core Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimates for June further strengthen the argument for proponents of tighter monetary policies within the ECB. These estimates provide substantial justification for those who advocate for a more stringent approach to monetary policy, given that inflationary pressures persist in the Eurozone.
The ECB, as the central bank responsible for maintaining price stability, closely monitors inflation expectations and aims to keep them in line with its target. The fact that long-term inflation expectations remain above the ECB's target suggests that there may be a need for increased vigilance and potential policy adjustments to curb inflationary pressures.
The divergence between medium-term and long-term inflation expectations underscores the complexity of managing inflationary dynamics in the Eurozone. The ECB will need to carefully assess economic data, including CPI estimates, to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy and strike a balance between supporting economic growth and maintaining price stability.
EUR/USD daily chart
Today, the economic calendar in the Eurozone is relatively light, implying that the movement of the EUR/USD exchange rate will primarily be influenced by the market's reaction to data releases from the United States.
The market's response to US data is of particular significance, as it has a notable impact on shaping the direction of the EUR/USD exchange rate. Positive data releases from the US could strengthen the US Dollar and potentially lead to a decline in the EUR/USD pair, while weaker-than-expected data could exert downward pressure on the US Dollar, potentially favoring an upward movement in the EUR/USD pair.
Additionally, the market remains highly sensitive to price-related developments. In this context, there is ongoing concern regarding the Bank of England's aggressive tightening expectations. Speculation suggests that the BoE could implement a significant 140 basis point increase in interest rates by January 2024. This projection, if realized, raises the possibility of a reassessment in the market. If investors revise their expectations and perceive the tightening as too aggressive or potentially detrimental to economic growth, it could pose downside risks for the British Pound. Consequently, the GBP/USD exchange rate could experience downward pressure.
GBP/USD daily chart
The EUR/GBP pair has witnessed a decline over the past two sessions; however, it may find support at its current levels and potentially make a move towards the 0.8600 mark once again. This shift in the pair's direction could be driven by the potential threat of a repricing of the previously overbought British Pound, influenced by the actions of the Bank of England.
The recent weakening of the EUR/GBP pair suggests that the Pound has gained strength against the Euro. However, the current levels may act as a support zone, potentially leading to a reversal in the pair's direction. If the support holds, it could provide an opportunity for the EUR/GBP pair to regain some ground and move towards the 0.8600 level.
The potential repricing of the Pound is a significant factor that could influence the pair's movement. If market participants perceive that the British Pound had become overbought or overvalued in relation to its fundamentals, they may adjust their positions accordingly, leading to a corrective move in the currency. This adjustment could contribute to a potential reversal in the EUR/GBP pair, benefiting the Euro and causing the pair to move higher towards the 0.8600 mark.
EUR/GBP daily chart
Yesterday's market sell-off was primarily triggered by the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve, which revealed a greater inclination for further tightening of monetary policy than previously anticipated. This direction gained further momentum with the release of strong employment-related data, namely the ADP payrolls and ISM services reports, which indicated that the US labor market remains robust and is expected to continue performing well.
The ADP payrolls report for June showcased an impressive addition of 497,000 new jobs. However, it is important to note that a significant portion of these positions were in lower-paid service roles, which could have implications for wage growth and overall economic recovery.
In addition to the employment data, the prices paid component of the ISM services report indicated a slowdown, reaching its lowest level in three years. This decline in price pressures suggests that inflationary pressures might be easing, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding future monetary policy actions.
The combination of the Federal Reserve minutes highlighting a stronger inclination for tightening, along with positive employment data and easing price pressures, contributed to the market sell-off observed. Investors and traders reacted to these factors, reassessing their positions and adjusting their expectations accordingly.
US Employment Change
The resilience of the labor market presents a challenge for the Federal Reserve in its pursuit of achieving its target inflation rate. Despite the possibility of a potential decrease in headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 3% in June, the task of returning inflation to the desired level becomes increasingly difficult.
Today's release of the US nonfarm payrolls report for June has the potential to further reinforce optimism about the US economy. A strong jobs report would provide evidence of a robust labor market, indicating economic strength and potential future growth. However, there is also a concern that such a positive report could lead the Federal Reserve to overestimate the economy's resilience and prompt them to raise interest rates more aggressively than necessary.
The market has already priced in these expectations, as reflected by the recent rise in yields. The anticipation of a stronger economy and the possibility of more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have contributed to an increase in yields. This pricing-in of expectations suggests that there is a level of caution in the market regarding the potential actions of the central bank and the impact they may have on various sectors.
Balancing the need to support the labor market with the goal of achieving the desired inflation rate remains a challenge for the Federal Reserve. The nonfarm payrolls report for June will be closely watched by market participants and policymakers alike, as it has the potential to shape future monetary policy decisions and market expectations.
As always, it is important to monitor economic data releases, central bank statements, and market sentiment to gain a comprehensive understanding of the current landscape and make informed decisions regarding investments and trading strategies.
ETH/USDT Short-Term Review 1HIntervalHello everyone, let's look at the ETH to USDT chart taking into account the timeframe of one hour. As we can see, the price leaves the local downtrend line sideways.
When we unfold the trend based fib extension tool, we see that we first have a support zone from $1872 to $1859, but when the price goes lower, then the support is at $1836.
Looking the other way, we can mark a resistance zone from $1879 to $1889 where the price is struggling to break out, then we have a second zone from $1904 to $1915 and then strong resistance at $1930.
The CHOP index indicates that the energy has been used, the MACD indicates the continuation of the local downtrend, and the RSI shows a significant rebound that may change the direction of the price to an upward one.
BTC/USDT Short-Term 1HInterval ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a one hour time frame. As you can see, the price is bouncing off the local downtrend line.
After unfolding the trend based fib extension grid, we see the first support zone from $30,309 to $30,138, and then the second support zone from $29,856 to $29,658.
Now let's move on to the resistances, and here in the first place the price has to break the zone from $30661 to $30804, when it does it has a second strong resistance zone from $30949 to $31150.
The CHOP index indicates that the energy is starting to gather strength, the MACD is on the verge of returning to the local uptrend, and the RSI after a strong recovery shows that there is room for price growth.
ETH/USDT Long-Term Review 1DIntervalHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. Using the yellow line, we will mark the uptrend line, which, as we can see, holds the price nicely in corrections.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark support, and here in the first place it is worth marking the support zone from $ 1845 to $ 1662, however, when the price drops below, we can see a return to a very strong support zone from $ 1363 to $ 1150.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first very strong resistance at the price of $2237, before which the price once again turned back, the next resistance is at the price of $2552, and then the third resistance at the price of $3007.
When we turn on the EMA Cross 50 and 200, we can see the place of transition into a strong uptrend and how far the price stays in this trend.
The CHOP index indicates that we have a lot of energy to use. The MACD indicator is in an uptrend. On the other hand, we have a rebound on the RSI, however, looking at the fact that we are in the upper part of the range, the price may go down to a lower level.