Gold: Break of Rising Structure, AgainThe gold has consolidated for more than a week since it broke new high at the beginning of last week.
The price has made another attempt to break new high as it broke the top of the consolidation but came down quickly as it lost its buying strength at the previous high of 1555.
There's a repeating pattern which shown the price fell as much as 300 pips once it broke below the rising structure (break of a rising trendline/bottom of a rising channel etc).
Also, the gold price was already seen resisted at the to of a 3-month rising channel since it reached the highest price of 1555.
The recent fakeout is very likely to cause a big amount of buy orders to be trapped and that's an indication that the price may continue to fall further.
Traders may look to look for short-tern/intraday sell at the moment, stop loss set about 30-50 pips just above 1543 would be sufficient and targetting the demand zone around 1530.
Dailyforecast
USDCHF: Repeating Bearish HarmonicsAn interesting repeating bearish harmonic pattern has presented itself and the bearish trend has just begun.
According to the past development of the bearish trend after the completion of the bearish harmonic pattern, the price will fall steeply with shallow retracement and very little support.
Sell USDCHF whenever the price retraced to the previous low in the smaller timeframe (H1 and below)
As for now and should the price starts to retrace, look to sell at 0.9860, stop loss set at, or above, 0.9882.
EURCAD Monthly/Weekly OutlookFirst off, there is a monthly Ascending triangle. The orange lines represent monthly zones. The circles show the touches of the trendline zone. So the monthly has some uptrend structure. When we look down at the Daily chart, we see at the market is currently in a downward parallel channel. However, I'm looking at it bouncing off of one of the bottom two green support zones with confluence of the trendline to continue that monthly uptrend and make it to the monthly resistance that the arrow stops at on the monthly chart at least. For now, I'm looking for it to possibly push back up to the top of the resistance line on the channel then come back down to one of those bottom 2 green supports then go up, or to break the resistance of the parallel channel retest it and start the uptrend now. Either way, I'm seeing that push up for the monthly ascending coming soon. I don't see this downtrend going down past those two bottom supports. But, we know these markets do what they want. So I could be horribly wrong. We will see.
Trade at your own risk, I am not a professional and this is not professional advice. I just read some books and think I know a little something.
PatiencePays
EURUSD: Awaiting Retest of Previous LowEURUSD continued to retrace for the 3rd trading day with little sign of rebound.
As observed, the price has formed lower highs and lower lows throughout the last 3 trading days and thus the price is expected to retrace further.
The price will soon retest the final demand zone near the previous low at 1.1050.
Look for buying opportunity from 1.1065 onward with a stop loss 30 pips below the previous low.
EURUSD: Supported at 618 Level, Broke above ConsolidationEURUSD has retraced significantly since the beginning of the trading week.
The price was seen supported at the 618 level which lasted from last night and through the Asian session.
The price has also rebounded off and broken above the minor consolidation when it was first seen supported at the 618 level.
It is a good time to buy the pullback, targetting at 1.1150 (previous high) and then 1.1185.
EURUSD: Watch for Rebound at Previous LowAs boring as this week's market is, I think that every good trader should cultivate a high level of patience.
Imagine trading within the tight range throughout this week, chasing after every rebound at the range bottom.
Either you have spent a great amount of time to make very little profit or you have made losses due to impatience and impulsive trading.
It's already the last trading day of the week and the market calmly awaits Powel to deliver his speech.
If the market does give a chance and EURUSD retest its previous low, I think it's a fairly good trade to buy the low on the first retest.
As long as the Fed doesn't shift away from a near-term rate cut, EURUSD should stand a good chance for a significant rebound after all the accumulation throughout the week.
EURUSD: Awaiting Completion of Bullish BatThe EURUSD is getting ready to inch lower as it failed to break above 1.1111.
Once the price dip lower, a bullish bat will be completed.
There is a good chance for the price to rebound stronger near the previous low of 1.1026.
And based on past pattern, EURUSD is likely to rebound higher again before it's able to break new low again.
Gold: Bullish Structural Break, Awaiting Next Bearish WaveThe gold fell over 550 pips on Tuesday and the price has gone through a full day of retracement on Wednesday.
Price is now seen resisted constantly at supply zone around 1523 and has just made a 150 pips of bearish wave.
Wait for a better price in the smaller timeframe to sell.
EURUSD: Wait for Pullback to BuyThe EURUSD turned out accordingly to what was forecasted in the weekly forecast.
The price broke out of the consolidation for the first time but pulled back immediately.
Based on the current structure, the EURUSD will continue if it doesn't break and close above 1.12.
Wait for the price to fall and pull back further into the immediate supply zone at 1.112 to buy.
US30: Intraday Sell Upon ABCDUS30 has been consolidating for the past 2 weeks and the closing price of the daily candle is also getting lower.
Putting aside fundamental and just trading with pure technical analysis for the short-term, selling the US30 near the range high could be a good opportunity.
The price is now retracing higher from the bottom of the consolidation while an ABCD formation may form if it continues to retrace higher.
Look for sell opportunity if ABCD forms around 27250 and aim to take profit either at the previous low or within the key demand zone just below 27000.
Gold: Buy near Key Demand ZoneAre you one of those who were trapped by the recent breakout?
You are definitely not alone and many are still trapped and hanging on to their buy orders.
And what's very worrying for the buyers is that the gold has retraced significantly and beyond the 618 level which will definitely cause some form of panic.
This is the part where it matters the most because this is exactly what the institutional traders want to see.
Well, if you still have some bullets left to buy, wait patiently and observe the price action as it gets closer to the demand zone below 1410.
Gold: Long Continuation from 1140 OnwardThe gold has broken new high again after close to a month of consolidation.
Those who chased after the trend when the Asia market opened this morning would have found themselves trapped by a sudden pullback lasted till right now.
The dilemma here is whether the price will retrace deeper but one thing for sure is that gold will continue to climb.
The question is whether is it the right time or the best price to go for re-entry to catch the bullish trend before its too late.
From the technical perspective, the price is in the midst of the 2nd wave of retracement which looks exactly the same as the previous round of retracement before the breakout.
On the other hand, the key demand zone is seen at 1430 just below the 618 level but what're the chances to buy again at this price? Honestly, we don't know.
Oh, and those buyers who were trapped at the peak, where would they set their stop loss? Probably slightly below the previous high?
In my opinion, any price between 1440 to 1427 will probably provide an opportunity to buy again.
So, how would you plan your trade?
EURUSD: Trade Accordingly to StructureEURUSD consolidated further one the first trading day but has started to turn bearish as it broke below a minor rising trendline.
According to the current structure, the price may soon break below the current range and fall towards the demand zone just above 1.12, supported by a rising trendline.
Traders can choose to do a short-term sell at the demand zone which is formed after the breakout of the minor trendline.
Otherwise, wait for the price to fall further once the price is supported at the demand zone above 1.12, traders can choose to long with a tight stop loss just below 1.12 with a target profit as high as 1.135.
EURUSD: Reversal Confirmed; Buy the PullbackDuring Fed Powell's testimony last night, the market was certain that a rate cut will happen this month.
The dollar fell and EURUSD gained steadily after it broke above a falling trendline.
The falling structure has broken and a rising structure just started to form.
Wait for a pullback and look for buy opportunity around 1.126.
Gold: Long at Range BottomThe gold price was seen support at the range bottom and a rebound has caused the price to break above a falling trendline.
And in that process, the market has also completed 2 waves of retracement from range high to the range low.
However, the market is still mixed due to the FOMC meeting minutes tonight but holding a long position at range bottom could still prove rewarding and trading risk is lower as well.
If the FOMC is dovish and the gold jumps, it would be recommended to take the partial profit when it reaches the range high or even if it breaks new high.
The gold price could potentially pull back just before the market closes to avoid paying too much for a 3-days swap.
However, if the price falls and breaks below the range bottom due to a hawkish FOMC, simply wait for a retracement to sell again and the breakout level.
Gold: Intraday Short upon Completion of ABCDHalf of the first trading day has passed and the gold price has been climbing gradually towards the middle of the current range.
The gold is expected to consolidate throughout the first half of this trading week while anticipating for the Fed's decision.
The completion of the current ABCD formation could just determine the top of the day range for today which will then provide an intraday short opportunity.
If you choose to sell, be sure to take profit when the price drops and retest the demand zone near the range bottom.
On the other hand, if you are reluctant to sell the gold, you will have to wait patiently for the price to retest the range bottom the same before you go in for a buy.
GBPUSD: Bottomed with Completion of Bullish BatThe price has bottomed within a 1-year range with multiple signs of reversal.
A bullish bat pattern was formed while the price has broken above an immediate falling trendline.
Besides, the current price could also be the beginning of the 2nd shoulder of an inverse head and shoulder.
Aside from the technical aspect, the pound is simply undervalued for a long time and BOE hasn't shown any signs to consider cutting rate.
The pound will always stand a chance to rally as long as 1.25 doesn't break.
EURUSD: Short the Pullback, AgainAs the U.S. called a truce with China on the trade war, the dollar has begun to recover together with a technically oversold dollar.
EURUSD since peaking at 1.1410 has retraced close to 10 cents after the 2nd wave of bearish movement has begun early this morning.
Since the US-China trade war has temporary halted and while the market is still anticipating whether the Fed will cut rate this month or in September later this year, the dollar is most likely to recover further thus we will probably see EURUSD dip lower below 1.13.
For intraday trade, we can wait for the price to pull back from the current bearish trend and look for sell opportunity at 1.135 which is around the bottom of the previous consolidation.
EURUSD: Day Short the PullbackAfter forming 4 consecutive days of bullish candles, EURUSD was resisted at the top of a rising channel as it completed an AB=CD pattern.
Just as I shared in my weekly forecast for this week, the upside for EURUSD is already limited.
The price has fallen and yesterday, forming a bearish engulfing, showing that the price may continue to fall and pull back further.
More take profits may happen as today is Wednesday and institution traders may look to exit more buy orders to reduce cost for swap rate.
Wait for the price to climb back to 1.1377 for selling opportunity.
EURUSD: Awaiting 2nd Wave of PullbackEURUSD fell into consolidation after the most recent bullish run.
The price has pulled back once and the rebound followed was not strong which may lead to another wave of pullback.
From the current structure, we are most likely going to expect the 2nd wave of pullback (probable AB=CD).
We will wait for the pullback and look for buy opportunity at 1.126.
EURUSD: Awaiting Retracement to Long @ 618EURUSD gapped down, covered the gap and continue to retrace lower.
The break above of 1.13 has already shown that price is most likely to climb further.
Taking reference from the previous wave of retracement before the breakout, the price will retrace just below 1.13 and reach the 618 level.
Wait for the price to retrace further to buy EURUSD between 1.128 and 1.13, target profit seen at 1.138 and 1.145.
Gold: Consolidation Before the Next Bullish WaveThe gold has gained tremendously since last Friday and continue so for the first 2 trading days this week.
The fell into a consolidation after a strong pullback since it reached the highest at 1344, a strong supply zone in the weekly chart.
At the same time, the dollar also showed strong support at 97 and further pullback is expected which will cause the gold to retrace further too.
Wait for the price to retrace towards 1322 demand zone to look for a buy opportunity.
AUDUSD: ABCD Pattern; RBA Rate DecisionAUDUSD has completed 2 waves of retracement which formed an AB=CD pattern.
It was completed within a supply zone defined by a previous low turned resistance.
RBA is expected to cut rate but AUDUSD has climbed for the 3rd consecutive week.
Besides, an inside bar break down has just happened in the H4 chart and the price has retraced back into the inside bar.
Thus, this would be a good price to sell and a good opportunity to take.