GBPUSD: Three Dive Down and UPGBPUSD has begun the process of retracement since the beginning of this week after it has surged as it turned bullish after breaking above a 7-week falling trendline.
It has completed 3 waves of retracement, or what some people called as three-dive down, and the price is now back to the sentimental price of 1.3000.
This would undoubtedly be a worthwhile trade to make a critical price level and which credible reversal pattern such as three-dive.
Most importantly, goo traders find good levels to trade but phenomenal traders react quick enough to changes as the best price and setup does not guarantee us a winning trade.
Dailyforecast
AUDJPY: Post-RBA Rate StatementAUDUSD didn't make it for proper completion of ABCD but AUDJPY did.
Selling the aussie against the yen instead of the dollar might be a better choice at this time as safe haven assets have started to gain in demand.
This is a near-perfect technical setup if we try not to complicate too many factors into a trade.
AUDUSD: ABCD Pattern, RBA RateThe RBA will release its rate statement in less than an hour.
The fresh new threat of the US-China trade war is very likely to be reflected in the statement which is most likely to be bad for its currency.
The aussie has plunged since the market opened this week.
While the price has retraced significantly, the gap has yet to be covered.
Therefore, if the price decides to cover the gap before the aussie continues to fall, an ABCD pattern will be completed at 0.7020 during/after the rate statement.
Should the gap be left opened, the price may attempt to break new low but unlikely to have a lasting effect.
Gold: Continuation of the Bulls but Pay PatienceThe gold jumped in the first hour when the market opened but fell into consolidation immediately afterwards.
This move showed the intention of accumulating buy orders at the top what would be the best to do now is to wait.
Wait for the price to retrace lower, wait for the patience of those who chased at the top to run out of patience.
The first point of re-entry is seen at 1279 which will close up the gap.
The extreme low for re-entry is seen between the price of 1276 - 1273.
USDJPY: Break Above of Falling Trendline amid Strong ReboundUSDJPY is about ready for a fresh new bullish trend after a hawkish FOMC.
The price saw itself surging as it rebounded off from a key demand zone supported by a 4-month rising trendline and after the completion of an ABCD pattern.
The price has now closed above the falling trendline and stands above the previous high of 111.55, thus affirming a new bullish trend to carry on.
The price is now in the process of consolidation before the next bullish wave.
For a long position, we will wait patiently for the price to retrace below 111.40 to 111.20.
A stop loss just below the previous low of 111.03 should be sufficient, provided the retracement completes without any signs of strong selling pressure.
Gold: Second Retest at Top of RangeThe gold has been consolidating downwards since the price has jumped over the top of the range at 1280.
It has taken 2 waves of downwards movement and the price had two successful retests at the breakout level 1280.
Therefore, we are expecting the price to rise from here as it embarks on its second wave of an uptrend and face strong resistance at 1294 (see chart).
USDJPY: ABCD in Progress Towards Key Demand ZoneUSDJPY came down strongly after a fake breakout of 112 since last week.
We can clearly see a falling channel is forming since the first wave of bearish movement has ended and as the second wave is still in progress.
In an ABCD pattern, it is important to watch for the break of point C before we can conclude that it is able to form D and that's what's happening now.
So let's wait patiently for the price to complete the ABCD pattern as it enters the key demand zone around the price of 111, sitting on a 4-month rising trendline.
This demand zone is strong also due to the fact that many sellers might have been trapped after the breakout of a falling channel in 11th April.
EURUSD: Broke New Low, Sell the PullbackEURUSD has broken new low in 2-months and price has already begun its retracement.
As the dollar has recently broken anew high in 5 months, it is expected to climb further which gives a bearish EURUSD an advantage too.
Wait for the price to retrace further into the supply zone at 1.1190 which coincides with a falling trendline for a selling opportunity.
USDJPY: Trend Reversal, Broke of Rising StructureJust when we are ready to follow the trend and continue to buy, a strong supply came in and near the 4-month supply zone.
The price has broken below a 1-month rising trendline as well as the bottom of a range, and it is even clearer if we look at the strong bearish candle in the Day chart.
The structure has changed into a bearish market and the price has also retraced to the bottom of the range which is a good price to sell now.
USDJPY: Follow the Trend and Buy the RetracementUSDJPY has broken out of consolidation and price managed to close above 112.
The price retraced significantly today and is seen supported now at a rising trendline.
Given enough space to climb, USDJPY is expected to rebound and climb again soon.
We are expecting the price to reach 112.50 and face a strong supply zone.
AUDUSD Buy - Strong Support on Bullish TrendWhen was the last time you have taken a look at the monthly or weekly chart of AUDUSD?
If you do so, you would realise 2 things:
1) AUDUSD is way undervalued.
2) Price is already at the bottom of a 4 years range.
Under these 2 conditions, there's very little reason for us not to focus on buying AUDUSD.
Previously, the price has already broken above a 4-month falling trendline, signalling for a turn into a bullish trend.
The price climbed and retraces within a rising channel and it is now about to reach the bottom of the channel.
Furthermore, the price will also find support at the previously broken falling trendline, as well as the 50% Fibonacci level, just enough for a bullish trend to resume.
EURUSD Sell - Retracement Channel Under CompletionSince EURUSD has broken below both rising trendline and bottom of a range with a strong bearish candle, the price went into consolidation since last Friday.
The consolidation has carried on till now where the 2nd wave of retracement is most likely to be completed by the US session.
Once the retracement channel is completed, we can look for a sign of a stop for any further upward movement and look for selling opportunity at 1.1258 - 1.1270.
If price persists to consolidated further upwards, we will wait for 1.1280 which is the breakout level on the bottom of the previous range.
EURUSD Sell - Lack of Demand, Poor Euro DataEURUSD plunged through the bottom of its current range a well as a rising trendline as weak euro data caused euro to weaken.
It was also probably due to the lack of demand to support the price after a second retest of the breakout level.
Based on the current movement, the seller is clearly in control of the trend and will most likely fall further.
During the U.S. session later, we can wait for the price to pull back towards the breakout level at 1.128 for a retest and look for a reversal signal to sell.
Gold Sell - HnS Neckline Broken, Sell the PullbackGold has finally broken below the neckline of an HnS which has been forming since the beginning of the year.
This is a clear sign of a bearish trend but we always avoid chasing after the trend whenever a breakout happens.
Instead, wait for the price to pull back and retest the breakout level (neckline) to see if there's any more demand left and if there's more supply to keep pushing the price lower.
Let's wait for the retest from 1.284 and we can look for a selling opportunity if there's a clear sign of a stop.
USDCAD Sell - Top of Sym Tri and Supply ZoneUSDCAD rebounded strongly yesterday after strong demand appeared at the bottom of a 1-month symmetrical triangle.
The price closed above the middle of the whole ranging structure signalling that the price may climb further.
The price is likely to climb higher with some remaining demand and will retest the top of the symmetrical triangle where the price will face with very strong resistance.
Wait for selling opportunity within the supply zone at 1.3420.
EURUSD Buy - Continuous Range Breakout and RetestEURUSD has reached the bottom at 1.1188 and fell into a range.
The range was broken above last week and the price fell into another minor range while sitting on to of the previous range.
On the last trading day, the range was broken once again and therefore we will most likely experience another short-term range.
As long as the price is seated on top of the range, it will most likely rebound higher as it gets closer to the rising trendline.
Look for buying opportunity between 1.1288 and 1.1276.
USDCHF Sell - Ending 3 Consecutive Days of RetracementUSDCHF has stubbornly climbed for the past 3 consecutive days.
Yesterday has however shown that price has met with strong resistance within the supply zone.
It is important to note that the price is considered to be very high as it is getting very close to a 27-month supply zone.
It is also obvious that the buying strength is not particularly strong as compared to the previous downtrend.
Therefore, today which is also the last trading day of the week, there's a high possibility that institutional traders will begin the process of distribution.
In conclusion, whether is it the technical patterns or the consideration of supply and demand, the price is most likely to proceed into a bearish trend.
USDCHF Sell - Supply Zone at 618 LevelUSDCHF diverges from the dollar during the euro session and continues to climb within a rising wedge when the dollar starts to fall again.
If we compare both dollar and USDCHF in the D1 chart, we will see that both are trading within an ascending triangle and that sellers are more in control then the buyers.
The dollar has already started to fall while USDCHF is seen completing its retracement and will soon reach a key supply zone at 618 level.
Wait for the price to pierce through the top of the rising wedge and look for strong signs of sellers.
EURUSD Buy - Awaiting Pullback to NecklineAfter the dollar has climbed for the past 3 weeks, the price has started to drop from a high since the beginning of this trading week.
EURUSD has managed to close above a 1-week range yesterday and that signals for the price to climb further with the dollar starting to drop.
Therefore, we can look for intraday buying opportunity should the price pulls back, which in this case, the neckline around 1.1240.
Gold Buy - H1 Inside Bar Break UpRise and shine, and the gold climb and break above the range.
In that process, an inside bar was formed in the H1 chart and then broken upwards.
It seems that the gold has chosen to run one more wave of bulls.
Wait for the price to pull back to 1293 - 1290 to look for a buying opportunity.
Gold Sell - Breaking Through Neckline of HnSGold has ranged above the low of 1283 for the past 4 trading days.
And last night, there was an attempt to break below the range which it did so base on the smaller timeframe from H4 onwards.
The price made a strong pullback but it still failed to stand above the range or make a higher high.
Thus in this case and with the head n shoulder formation, the price, today, is most likely to plunge.
This daily forecast is also inlined with my weekly forecast.
USDJPY Short - Bearish Bat Pattern, Dollar OverboughtAs the dollar reaches beyond 97, it is technically entering an overbought zone and may be vulnerable to selling pressure.
So the USDJPY has climbed pretty much through the Asia session and stands above 111.
A bat pattern is on its way to completion where the final point is expected to end in the supply zone around 111.50.
Therefore, if the dollar continues to climb further into the overbought zone while the USDJPY climbs too to complete the bat pattern, we are expecting there's going to be some strong selling pressure.
USDCHF Long - Price may Climb Amid Weak SellingThe price consolidates for the 3rd day as the price continues to retrace.
There hasn't been any significant selling and the price has yet to reach any strong supply zone.
Therefore, the price is expected to retrace further and climb towards the supply zone near 1.00 which overlaps with a previously broken rising trendline.
For intraday trade, traders may consider to long around 0.9930 but bear in mind that dollar is fundamentally weaker after dovish FOMC last week.