Get started

Dailymarketupdate

Ready for another ATH? 📈The SP500 manages to break the 2 important resistance lines at 3550 and 3588 points. The way for higher quotations is now paved and we expect prices to rise to 3800 points. Another imminent hurdle the bulls are facing is however the current all time high at 3674. Still the bulls reamin strong and as long as market stays above 3550, we expect the SP500 to rise. Should we break below 3550 the chances for wave alt.ii will accumulate. At the moment we consider this alternative scenario with a probability of 35%. What do you think? Happy Trading! Happy Holiday! 🦃
OANDA:SPX500USD
by MarketIntel
That escalated quickly! 🌋Since our last update, the bulls manage to break the two important resistance levels at $12067 and $13764. This results in a further escalation to higher quotations. After the market only reached minor correction targets, we entered another long position at around $16000. We expect wave 1 in light blue to continue. The target is around the current all-time highs at 20k. After wave 1, we still anticipate a bigger correction to lay a long-lasting fundament. Happy Trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarketIntel
3
Daily Market Update for 11/13Trend lines drawn from the 10/13 pivot day (25d), 10/30 bottom (11d), 11/9 (5d), and today 11/13 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 13, 2020 I walk alone, I walk alone Facts: +1.02% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: 26% Good: Closing range near intraday highs Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long lower wick, thin body, nearly an inside day. Advance/Decline: 2.89, almost 3 advancing stocks for every declining stock Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq was left out of the all-time high close party where the other indexes celebrated today. It was still a good day, but the focus was on sectors other than Technology, which is heavily represented in the Nasdaq. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in higher then expected while Core PPI (which excludes Energy and Food) came in lower than expected. Investors seemed to attribute that to the Energy sector, which was the top performing sector of the day. The Nasdaq index rose +1.02% and ended the day with an 85% closing range and a 26% green body in the upper half of the day. Volume was lower than the prior day. The longer lower wick was formed from morning lows which were not revisited through the rest of the day. A short upper wick formed near close as investors exited positions heading into the weekend. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock in the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX -1.36%), Dow Jones Industrial average (DHI -1.37%) and Russell 2000 (RUT +2.08%) all had all-time high closes. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial are still below the intraday all-time highs they set on Monday. The RUT closed near its intraday all-time high and is up almost 13% from a bottom on 10/30. All sectors ended the day with gains. Energy (XLE +3.64%), Real Estate (XLRE +2.29) and Industrials (XLI +2.22%) are the biggest winners of the day. Health (XLV +1.26%), Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) had gains but lagged the S&P 500. The VIX volatility index decreased -8.88%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds, Greenback and Commodities Treasury Bond yields increased slightly for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also increased while the 30Y-10Y spread continues to tighten over the past week. The US dollar (DXY -0.26%) weakened. The Produce Price Index is a bullish indicator for the greenback, but the Consumer Confidence data released from University of Michigan is a bearish signal for the currency. Gold (GOLD +0.65%) and Silver (SILVER +1.49%) both increased. Timber (WOOD +2.76%) returned from losses yesterday to end the week at a high point. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL -3.71%) dropped but is still up over 18% since the end of October. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps had gains for the day. Only Google (GOOG +1.55%) outperformed the Nasdaq. Apple (AAPL +0.04%) closed nearly even for the day. Microsoft (MSFT +0.50%) and Amazon (AMZN +0.6%) did better but still underperformed the market at open and close and lagged the intraday movement. Growth stocks continued the mix of gains and losses that have been the hallmark of this week. Fiverr (FVRR +4.97%), JD.COM (JD +6.60%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.59%) were among stocks that had did well. Zoom (ZM -5.85%) and Peloton (PTON +7.29%) were among the stocks that continued to slide as the potential for a new vaccine could change the growth characteristics for these businesses that benefited from lockdowns. Draft Kings (DKNG +3.85%) beat expectations and gave a great forecast. It gapped at open but dropped nearly 6% in intraday trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Daly and Clarida, members of the Federal Open Market Committee, will speak on Monday about the economy which usually drops hints about monetary policy. Tyson Foods (TSN +2.50%) will release earnings on Monday, kicking off a week or consumer and retail earnings releases for next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend line from the 10/30 bottom has consistently pointed to a new all-time high, as prices moved mostly sideways this week. That would be a +2.38% increase and welcome the index to the group of other indexes trading at all-time highs. Continuing today’s one-day trend line would result in a +0.29% gain. The five-day trend line is still on a negative slope and pointing to a -1.15% loss for Monday. The longest trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -2.59% loss, right at the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Friday continued the week of rotations, causing a lot of damage to investors favorite watchlists. Its hard to find setups with good entry points when heavy rotations are occurring. Hopefully next week will bring some more resolution around issues impacting the market and give more indication of direction. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
The Bulls love Biden! 🗳️Or do they? In an impulsive wave, the bulls manage to push above the 3550 mark. A major resistance that makes us abandon our primary expectation, as indicated in our last post. This scenario is now our alternative count, which has to be considered with a 42% probability. To further strengthen the upwards move, we need to see a quotation of 3572 and higher, plus a break out above the current all time high. If the bulls manage to deliver, the way is paved for 3800 points and higher. We are at a crossroads to see if the breakout caused by the election results will be sustainable. As long as we hold above 3500, the SP500 is set up for higher notation.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by MarketIntel
DOW 30k! 💨After the election results, the Dow jumped to new record highs on Monday, marking its high just shy of the 30k milestone. Our primary expectation is a breach of the 30k mark and a continuation of wave iii in orange. To confirm the outbreak, the Dow must break above the 30k mark. Should the bears send the market on a detour, and the support at 28781 is broken, we expect the further downward movement towards the next support line at 27648. One way to play the current scenario is to place entry orders above and below the mentioned decision levels. The upcoming days will be filled with suspension!
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by MarketIntel
The end is near! 🔚 🌍 The earth is turning against us, and it's time for us to board the spaceships leaving for Kepler-186f. Just kidding, it's not that bad! However, we still have to expect another -15% in the S&P500 for the upcoming weeks. Our target area for the correction lies between 2900 and 2650. From there, we expect major support by the bulls and a turnaround towards higher quotations. The next hurdle the bears face on their way down is the last low at around 3200 points. This support has to be broken for a final confirmation of the correction. What's your expectation for the upcoming weeks? Stay save and happy trading!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by MarketIntel
Another -10% be prepared! 🌧️Another Iceberg ahead! After breaking our support line at 12199 points, the slump in the DAX accelerates further. With the step below 12199, we have adjusted our primary expectation. We are now looking at values around the 10000 - 106000 points area. From this region, the bulls might have a chance for a turnaround. Should we break below the 10k mark, so help us god, the DAX is geared for a reunion with the lockdown lows of March. What do you think? Happy trading!
EUREX:FDAX1!
by MarketIntel
Almost ready! 💣 Ethereum is almost ready for its next corrective wave. We expect prices to reach the area between $400 - $450 before another sharp decline occurs. We defined a potential turnaround zone in which we consider a short entry. Under no circumstances should the bulls break above the $450. Otherwise, Ethereum would most likely rise above $500. After completing wave 2 in blue, we expect prices to reach the area of previous all-time highs. What are your expectations? Do you see a direct break out above $480?
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarketIntel
Crucial decisions ahead! Bitcoin reaches our turnaround zone, and we see the first reaction. The bears bring us down below the $11500 mark, and we are very curious about what the upcoming days will get. Primarily we expect the start of a greater decrease in price, the target of which lies in the $8000 area, as indicated on the chart. Prices above $12067 must be avoided at all costs. Otherwise, our primary expectation is no longer valid. In this case, we would see new highs above the $13000 mark. However, the bigger correction in wave 2 in blue is essential for a sustainable upwards move to regions around the all-time high. What do you think? Happy Trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarketIntel
Classic wave 4️⃣ action! The DAX opens Wednesday's trading session flat, while concerns about the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the economy continue to dominate among investors. U.S. President Donald Trump had instructed the government and his party the evening before to refrain from negotiating with the Democrats on further aid measures to deal with the virus crisis until after the election. In both scenarios we are assuming a further imminent upward movement in the direction of 13,000 points, but at 40% we still have to take into account that the market will slump again afterwards. As long as the DAX is trading below 13304 points, the underlying downward scenario remains valid. Direction: 11500 - 10500 points.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by MarketIntel
Gorgeous! 🦄 Looking at the Gold Chart, there isn't much we could add. The chart says it all. We think that wave 3 in green is completed, and at the moment, the corrective wave 4 is underway. After wave 4, we expect the downtrend to continue. The target is the area at around $1800. Our scenario is valid as long as we do not reach prices above $1908. Should the bulls break this resistance, prices at around $2000 have to be considered. Take a look at our last update and how beautifully price action followed our indications on the chart. We are always amazed at how accurate Elliott Waves can be. What are your targets for Gold? ✌️ Happy Trading! ✌🏾
COMEX:GC1!Short
by MarketIntel
Just a hick up on the way to 4k? We think not. Our primary expectation is, that the SP500 is geared for a bigger correction as indicated on the chart. Our target is the region around 2900 points. From there we expect new all time highs in the long run. Right now the bears should keep the index below 3502 points. If we see a break out above this resistance our primary scenario is no longer valid. The outcome would be quotations above 3600. The following days will be crucial as we are approaching the target area for wave B in orange, where the resversal should happen. What do you think, new ATHs or drop below 3k? Happy Trading !
OANDA:SPX500USD
by MarketIntel
Another 20% for the bears! 🐻 We updated our target for the correction in silver. Due to the breach of the $23 area, we have to expect further downward movement. The new target for a turnaround is between $19 and $15.50. A yellow box indicates the zone. This bigger correction leaves us with more potential to the upside after the current correction. We think that we are now ina major wave 2 in blue. This means that after completing the correction, a bull run to prices over $30 could start. Share your opinion in the comments! Happy Trading!
COMEX:SI1!Short
by MarketIntel
6
-30% Drop expected! 📉 In the end, everything will be alright. Otherwise, it's not the end! In the Long run, after the current correction, we expect prices in Ethereum to rise significantly. In this rise, we might even break out to new all-time highs. Before that, however, we have to deal with another major drop in price. This drop might come earlier than expected. In our alternative scenario, we have to consider that the wave in red is already completed. In this case, prices would only rise to about $360 before another impulsive drop occurs. As soon as we reach the target area for the alternative wave alt.2, we consider a short trade as long as the indicators signal a downturn. The alternative scenario would also mean that prices will drop to $180 instead of $240. Take care and happy trading!
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarketIntel
Goal: 20k ! 🏁 If our plan pans out, Bitcoin is gearing up for much higher levels, in the range of the previous all-time highs. Nevertheless, we need completion of the correction before the bulls are strong enough for the next rally. This current correction in wave 2 in blue should at least bring prices in the area of $8200. From there, we expect strong support and bullish action returning. We highlighted the area with a yellow rectangle, indicating a potential turnaround zone. The $7243 shouldn't be broken as chances for a bigger correction increase below this mark. In the short term, we expect prices to go up slightly. The target for wave in red is between $11500 - $12000. This area marks a strong resistance from where the next sell-off may start. Alternatively, we have already seen the high of wave , and the sell-off will continue right away. This, however, ist hard to tell at the moment. Primarily we expect prices to reach the $11500 - $12000 area. If the mentioned conditions will be fulfilled, Bitcoin is paving the way for prices at around 20k. What are your expectations for BTC? Feel free to share your opinion! Happy trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarketIntel
Apple - US Tech worth more than entire EU Stock Market! 🐂 According to Bank of America, the US tech sector is now worth more than the entire European stock market. Although, in the wake of the recent setback in the tech sector, the main concern seems to be massive overvaluation as a reason for the latest selloff. We, however, see arguments against a pessimistic view. Many tech stocks are seen as profiteers of the virus crisis due to the increasing pressure to digitize. Stocks like Apple or Amazon are already showing greater resistance to the fear of the second pandemic wave and new lockdown measures. Apple, for example, had rallied the previous evening after an early approach to the 100-dollar mark and went out of trading three percent higher. Since the recent high, the market has reached the yellow target box for the current pullback. Even though the ideal target was breached to the downside by $2, we expect the bulls to step back in very soon, taking Appel to new all-time highs. Under $128.78, the alternative scenario should still be taken into consideration. We give this scenario a 30% probability, which would pave the way towards $95, bevor the current decline is completed. To summarize, both scenarios are pointing to new all-time highs in the medium-term perspective. What's your opinion on the tech sector?
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by MarketIntel
3200 are coming! The fear of a new corona wave swept through Wall Street on Monday, and the S&P500 fell back to levels from early August. The downward trend that has been going on for weeks since the high in the 3600-point range is thus continuing and reached our target zone. However, further turbulence must still be taken into consideration. On the one hand, expectations regarding the resilience of the US economy are partially too high. On the other hand, the risks posed by the turmoil through the upcoming presidential election in early November are often underestimated. Further, the dispute over the successor to the late Constitutional Court judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg (aka Notorious RBG) could occupy the Senate so much that an agreement on a new economic stimulus program that has long been hoped for could be delayed for weeks. Even though the Market reached the first target box, a lower level in the 3200 points range still needs to be expected before the S&P500 climbs back up. In both scenarios, we anticipate a bounce to at least 3440 points. Should the bulls not push through the resistance between 3434 – 3501 points, significantly lower quotations in the range of 2800 points become the next target. In summary, we expect the S&P500 to bounce back toward 3430 points. Should the bulls not push through 3434 – 3501 points, a significant downward move towards 2800 points must be anticipated, bevor the decline since the highs is completed. What do you think? Are you a buyer or a seller? Feel free to share your work and let us know in the comments section! Wishing you all successful trades.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MarketIntel
+50% from now? 🚀WTI on the rise! After confirming our turnaround zone in yellow, oil is poised for higher prices. The end of wave 3 in green is expected in the area of $60. However, we do not want to see prices dipping below $38.45. Below this support line, chances accumulate that further correction is on the way, as the bears are gaining in strength. Should oil trade below $36.49 a barrel, our primary expectation is no longer valid. In this case, we see prices dropping to $30. All in all, we're at a major inflection point, and we need to break the indicated resistance zone to continue the upwards move. Watch the mentioned marks closely! What are your expectations for WTI? Feel free to comment below!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by MarketIntel
1