DAL
October 11 Earnings: Delta Airlines - Fuel, Fuel, FuelAll major airlines have enjoyed solid financial upbeat since Oil $USOIL has remained under $50/barrel.
Delta Airlines has subsequently hiked their dividend throughout the quarter and increased share buybacks.
The company is also committed to paying down debt while financial conditions allow for it.
The ITIA's latest data reports a Load Factor of 84.7% - Optimistic readings for airlines.
Traffic growth remains high at 6.8% as more people take to the skies and shipping increases.
I believe this quarter will be bullish for airlines following the summer season.
I'm starting Delta Airlines with a $55.00 PT for the post-earnings price action.
Bearish Doubling Down For Delta AirlinesOn April 26, 2017, Delta Airlines ( DAL ) crossed below its 150 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 41 times and the stock drops a minimum of 0.194%. It has a median loss of 6.485 % and maximum loss of 40.441% over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 52.8562. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock recently moved up into a more neutral movement state.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -17.9842. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0188 and the negative is at 0.8566. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving up, but the positive is dropping and negative is rising after today's session.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 71.7501 and D value is 61.2473. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is approaching overbought territory and should cycle down soon.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 3.82% over the next 15 trading days.
Just two days prior to our current downward DMA cross, Delta crossed over its 150 DMA. When the downward cross occurs a few trading days after an upward cross, the stock always drops. Since the end of the financial crisis in 2009 this has occurred in January 2011, October 2011, December 2011 (3 times), October 2012 (4 times), November 2012, July 2015, and April 2016. The stock dropped 6.369%, 12.993%, 5.483%, 3.879%, 2.317%, 3.535%, 4.814%, 5.100%, 5.572%, 3.560%, 1.261%, and 13.494% respectively. The median drop of these 12 occasions is 4.957%.
Airline CooloffHistorically when the vortex negative hits this level the stock drops at least 1.21% with an average drop around 13.57%. A drop around this average is possible, but DAL has not been trading at large enough daily spreads to make this likely in the next few weeks. A more conservative drop would be near the 47.56 mark which has been a pseudo support/resistance level.
DOW Transports To Retest Recent Lows(Note: DOWT is no longer in a bear market after rallying the last two weeks)
2015 was suppose to be just another year of the epic bull market created by reckless central banking policies. Some Wall Street estimates for the S&P 500 were as high as 2,300. Me? I projected a contraction to 1,810 in mid-January.
Whether or not the SPX will reach my target within the next 10 weeks, or so, is uncertain; but what has been quite clear is the scaffolding holding with risk assets around the global has been crumbling for sometime.
In " Is A Storm Brewing? How History is Repeating Itself ," I was clear and concise in what 2015 had in store (posted Jan. 13, 2015):
I support the idea that we are on the precipitous of something disastrous.
Those who constantly look at underlying factors and notice the shifts in the FX, commodity and economic data are witnessing that the latest boom cycle is on its last leg.
In essence, the post was a summery of the marco trends few wrote about because everybody indulged in the feel-good of rising stock prices.
The post ended quite ominously: "2015 is going to be mercurial…"
On March 26, I indicated that the DOW transports looked technically weak. Price action had been consolidating early in the year, much like the SPX. The index made several lower highs, higher lows and finally broke support at 8600.
Nobody was even looking at the transports as a potential catalyst to drag the broader markets lower, even though that is historically the case.
For instance, Cowen Group's Head of Sales, David Seaburg, said, as late as June 25 (after the the transports already began weakening underneath consolidation), "Everyone is up in arms about the transports, but the underperformance has very little to do with a weak economy and has more to do with the structural issues within the sector."
Seaburg also said that "I DEFINITELY don't see any downside (broader markets) necessarily." Almost a month-to-the-day, not only did the DOW and SPX hit their first 10 percent correction in four years, the DOW transports fell into bear market territory. Awkward.
Those that live by subjectivity, die by subjectivity.
The broader markets did receive a massive bounce following the largest NYSE short-interest since the Lehman Brothers collapse, but the transports has been rejected twice from 8,250, or the 23.6% Fib. retracement from the 2012-lows.
It's important to note that central bank credibility is fading fast, and traders will become more wary as the year winds down. Structurally, the index looks weak as earnings have been lackluster to not good at all.
EMAs are showing bullishness on the daily, as they are sloping upward. However, a close above 8,250 will be needed to garner any significant technical buying in my opinion.
Price action is within a large symmetrical triangle with price support of 7,970 cutting through the middle. This key, near-term support level could determine whether the index will test triangle support, which is supported by price support of 7,790.
A confirmed close below the triangle support will cause transports to retest the 2012 ascending trend line. I expect fundamentals to continue to deteriorate into 4Q, and the transports to challege 2011's trend (between 7,200 and 7,300).
Conversely, a close above triangle resistance could cause a rally to 8,500.
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Is it going to run out of Fuel? Bearish Bat completionWith the drop in oil prices, $JETS, the new ETF that holds airline companies like Delta ($DAL), American Airlines ($AAL) and southwest airlines company ($LUV) had a very nice rally during the month of July.
The $ETF rallied all the way up to the 88.6 Fib level to complete a bearish Bat pattern and declined from there.
The pattern's targets are 23.5$ and 23$ which also come with daily support zones.
The current price level offer about 1:1 R/R ration for the short position with stop loss above X and 23.5$ as initial target zone.
This might work with the bullish scenario I posted earlier for oil
Delta Airlines -DAL - Weekly -Touched 1x's sales in 2014Delta is just off of an extreme level of valuation as it backs down to $43.36 today, May 22, 2015.
If you look at the Total Revenue chart, you can see that revenue gains were steady and have increased by 42% since 5 years ago in May. Over the same time frame, however, the stock price has risen by 267%. After-tax margins went from losses to profits and margins briefly climbed over 20% (after-tax).
Next questions: Did DAL use up all of their tax-loss carry forwards? Will the drop in oil prices lead consumers to spend more on travel? Will people fly on vacations more or will driving still be the best choice.
DAL has been a monster winner for any portfolio up until now, but Airlines are a cyclical business and the business cycle hasn't been outlawed. Consolidation and efficiencies have driven up profitability, and shareholders have been richly rewarded. It looks like there are more "shareholders" than "share-buyers" at this level and the recent price action is alerting us to sellers unloading shares. $46 seems to be the common price where the sellers are unloading shares and the strong buyers are down at $34-$30. So, from $43.30 here, the upside seems less than the risk to the downside.
Here's hoping you look at the fundamentals too when you examine a chart and not just the "technimentals"....
Cheers,
Tim 5/22/2015 2:02 PM EST 43.31 last DAL
PS - Note - I have been picking a top in DAL over the past year +. Check out my charts.
DAL Next leg up? 1:3 Risk/Reward tradeI have identified a bullish flag pattern on DAL weekly chart. Flag patterns are a reliable trading pattern which gives you clear entry and selling signals. Flags are a quick to meet targets usually completing in less then 3 weeks time. DAL had a straight $20 run up from its' lows (creating the pole) and then proceeded to consolidate for several weeks (creating the staff). This weeks close above the staff indicates a breakout thus signaling a buying opportunity. you can reasonably take an entry here at 47.07 and place a stop at 45.07. Target for this trade would be 53.30. giving you better then a 1:3 risk reward trade. The sound fundamentals with DAL and the continuing drop in oil prices further validates this breakout.
What chart should I analyze next? Comment Below!
DAL- The Most Fundamentally Sound Airline DAL is hands down my favorite airline stock. I can't justify executing a long position here as the risk is to great for me right here. I'm a buyer at 42, I'm a thief at 38. But with oil plummeting, it wouldn't surprise me to see DAL hit 55 before pulling back any significant amount. DAL sits atop of my watchlist