Bitcoin [ TA ] 08.10.2022Welcome to my daily chart of Bitcoin - this is a series of technical analyses
Think of it as a standard trade "newspaper"
#DYOR
Comment:
In the wake of yesterday's data, bitcoin did not feel too well and reacted perfectly to our liquidity zone and orderblock.
Accumulation in this area can be seen over the weekend or early Monday
DATA
QUANDL DATA S&P 500 Earnings by Month vs S&P500 INDEXQUANDL DATA S&P 500 Earnings by Month vs S&P500 INDEX
A recession is NOT a buy indicator. Many times in the last 2-3 months I have heard from much larger funds that a recession is a great indicator to buy equities. This is historically untrue and the idea should be frowned upon. Do not fall for the tricks of these people only searching for you commissions. Buy QE sell QT. You will thank me later.
$JPY - WHERE TO NEXT?ST Trade idea
A break to either direction, we do have US data coming in the afternoon that could perhaps shifts gears for yen and we have BOJ's Kuroda will be at Jackson Hole:
Joins the confirmed CB list of Bailey and Schnabel. No Lagarde appearance though apparently. Full agenda will be released tomorrow evening.
Keep an eye out and alerts at the ready!
Best,
TJ
How to make quick 40 pips in USDJPYSince the FED last week went from an ultra hawkish stance to a more data dependant one it is clear that US data will now become even more important and volatile for USD pairs and also for the whole market.
And thats great news! It means we can now extract pips from the market every time there are important US news like for example the ISM manufacturing data today.
If you want to participate you can enter to my group trough the link in my bio.
For the ISM report yesterday it was really easy to get 30-40 pips out of USDJPY:
1. The ISM came better than expected with 52.7 vs. 52.1 consensus.
-> go long USDJPY immediately
2. Algos drove USDJPY higher for 40 pips
3. Take profit immediately when the first impulse of the move weakens.
4. Market participants realize that the most important subcomponent of the ISM, -> prices paid <- , came much lower than expected (60.0 vs 75.0 consensus)
5. USDJPY falls all the way back again
I made easy peasy 40 pips and so can you next time.
Risk:Reward Ratio. What is it?Risk to reward ratio. What is it? What does it mean and how do we use it?
Now, if you made it to the point where you're here on TradingView, there's a good chance that you have heard about Risk to Reward ratio. Today, I want to dive into what it really means and how to actually utilize it. I see so many beginners missing out on huge profits and opportunities because of their risk reward ratio and I want to share my knowledge of this tool and how to actually use it in the future.
Firstly, let's dive into what is the risk/reward ratio? The RR ratio is a tool that can accurately predict by expected returns based off of previous results. This tool measures how much reward you are estimated to gain based off of the dollar amount you risk. For example, if you have a risk to reward ratio of 1:3, it means for every $1 you risk, you will gain a return of $3 in the event of a positive trade. Using the same example in the FX market, let's say you're risking 10 pips on EURUSD, your take profit is at 30 pips. This means you gain 30 pips in the event of a win, lose 10 pips in the event of a loss, giving you a 1:3 risk/reward ratio.
This is a very powerful tool because compared with the win rate and in correlation, you can actually predict based off of your previous results, you're expected returns on investment. Being able to predict what you're expected returns are are great way of giving you milestone targets, but also when you're looking at getting funded with prop firms, you also know what you are actually able to achieve in what time frame.
Now, it goes without saying, the higher your risk to reward ratio, the less you need to win in order to maintain profitability. The opposite, the lower your risk reward ratio, the higher win rate is required to maintain profitability.
But this is where we get into where I find beginners struggle. A lot of people will base their strategies on their risk/reward ratios, which is understandable if you're building the strategy from scratch. If you're using a prebuilt strategy or something that doesn't really correlate with risk/reward ratio. Then it makes it obsolete and just confusing. Going back to my first point, risk to reward ratio is a tool that you can use to estimate future potential returns based off of previous results. Let's say you have 100 trades worth of data. You can accurately have a look at what is your risk to reward ratio is and compare that with your win rate. From there you can make a decision whether or not that is a profitable strategy. On top of that, you can then start to look to improve either your win rate and risk to reward ratio, knowing that that is an area that needs improvement.
When it comes to improving your risk to reward ratio, one thing that always grinds my gears with traders, is when they enter a trade, they'll set their stop loss and take profits based on their risk to reward ratio not based on the actual analytics of the trade. While I understand this and with some strategies, this can work. For most, they end up setting those take profits in areas that is just realistically is going to be really hard for the price to get to. What professionals do when trying to improve the risks of reward ratio is only take those setups where a good take profit is viable around that level of risk to reward.
For example, in this chart, we are looking at buying the USDCAD over the next couple of weeks. We like this setup. We've had our entry signal and we're going to place a stop loss below that recent low, which was created early last week. We are not happy with our risk to reward ratio. We think we're leaving too much profit on the table and want to increase our overall results. So I'm only taking trades that have close to a three to one risk to reward ratio. But as you can see by this chart that dotted lines are areas of resistance which we are going to have to break in order to achieve that level of profitability. There are 5 different zones we are going to have to get through in order for my take profit to be hit, it is fair to say the odds are not in my favor.
Now a beginner Trader will still enter this trade with the same take profit and the same stop loss and just hold on. The reason they'll do that is because they want the 1:3 risk reward ratio. They don't care where the profit target is. What matters is it is 3 times worth what they're risking. On the other hand, A professional trader will actually either let this trade go and not enter it, or look for another entry point later on on smaller timeframes to where you can fit that risk to reward ratio and you're not going to hit the high levels of resistance.
To sum up what my point is, risk to reward ratio is a very powerful tool to understand what you are capable of the trader and also where you can improve. It is not a valid take profit selection strategy. Yes, it can definitely help with guidelines on where to set your take profit, but it should not be the sole reason your take profit is set at a certain price just because it is X amount whatever you are risking. Have a look at what the chart is telling you and what your analysis is telling you. Then, only take the trades which coincide with the risk to reward ratio. You want to achieve.
I hope you enjoyed this insight and I hope it was beneficial to you. I recommend highly diving into your previous trading data. Have a look at your win rate. Have a look at your risk reward ratio and understand what your profitability expectation really is and base your future decisions off of that data. Have a fantastic trading we can I look forward to seeing your comments.
- Jordon
DOW JONES WILL GO ABOVE 31800dow jones at 1 hr time frame looking bullish setup as per fixed range volume profile maay attemp above 31250 towards 32500 and that journy may trigger todayy evening with u.s. gdp data will come so if anything positive out come is coming then big rally will come and it may trigger our market expiry trending as well.
its just a view and probablity so thats why we took this 33600 ce as btst if their is any chanses for gapup and shortcovering we will in that trend early with small risk as 12k is whole risk for just 4 lots lets see.
DOWJONES SKILLING:DJ30
109% Mapped Short-Term For Streamr DatacoinHello my fellow cryptocurrency trader, another beautiful day today.
Looking at Streamr Datacoin, one of the many low market capitalization altcoins, we have some interesting signals.
While the big market capitalization altcoins printed a lower low after 12-May, the smaller ones are printing higher lows... Giving us a very important and revealing signals.
It will all grow.
We have an ascending triangle, bullish RSI with a break above EMA50.
These are the signals, the rest is on the chart.
Namaste.
$SPY BB OptimizationUsing @KioseffTrading BB Optimizer on SPY, really loving the data I am seeing on this. SPY is seeming to have a hard time currently at $410 and the BB optimizer has an exceptionally well win rate %, will be eyeing this down for an entry in the near future using this optimization tool!
Must Watch For TradingView Futures Traders!OKay, this video idea is neither Analysis or a Tutorial. So "I won't be mad if my idea is hidden," but hopefully you catch it first, or it sneaks through uncensored, since it is super valuable for any, and all, TradingView users that trade futures, want to learn to trade futures, need access to real time futures data, and like the TradingView supported broker Tradovate.
Links to the firm mentioned and details are in the links below the video idea. DM me with questions.
$NLSN pop on earningsSometimes less is more. Simply said, this is basically a data analysis company.
When the Keltner channels breach the Bollinger bands, it usually signifies a large move, the direction is unknown, but I believe this violation will take it even farther up since the average pop on the last two big breaches is about 46%.
Also, this has been popping up on unusual call option activity over and over again.
Data on ETH pair giving us clear signal of pump incomingEasy setup chart for Data but on ETH pair
Does not matter how you trade Data. However, we are using Data/ETH to show us where is it possibly heading as sometimes it is hard to determine the target by only looking at fiat pair. I prefer sometimes to look into crypto pairs
Data/USDT targets:
T1: 0.22
T2: 0.26
T3: long term holding : 0.562