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Will the rising tension in the Middle East boost Oil prices?Macro theme: - WTI hovered around 72.50 dollars per barrel on Thu, attempting to recover from previous losses as markets considered potential supply risks due to rising tensions in the Middle East. - The Fed also implemented a larger-than-expected 0.5% cut, which could stimulate economic activity and boost oil demand. - However, worries over China’s slowing economy and an expected supply increase from OPEC+ continue to pressure prices in the medium term. Technical theme: - From the 4-hour chart, USOIL is recovering and trading within its ascending channel. The price was retraced to retest both EMAs and bounced up to close above the key resistance at around 70.20.  - If the price can maintain above 70.20, it may continue to rise to 71.50. In the medium term, 73.00-73.80 is the potential area for USOIL to reach upon breaking 71.50, as it is the technical confluence area. - Meanwhile, the price may retest the broken level 70.20 before resuming its upward short-term movement. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by DatTong
2
Will Today's CPI Report Ease Crypto Pressure Post-Debate?Macro theme: - Fears of a global recession are weighing on Bitcoin as a risky asset, though the US economy remains on track for steady growth. - Investor engagement with exchanges has decreased, with lower trading volumes reflecting reduced interest. - Bitcoin's recent gains were impacted following the first debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with odds favouring Harris. - All eyes are now on today's CPI data; if inflation falls as expected, a short squeeze could ease the recent price pressure. Technical theme: - From a 4-hour chart perspective, BTCUSD is hovering around EMA21, indicating that the sideways mode persists. EMA21 has not crossed up EMA78 yet to create a complete shift of the current sideways structure despite that BTCUSD broke its previous descending channel.  - If BTCUSD extends its gain beyond 58200, the price may continue to reach the psychology level 60000. - On the contrary, if BTCUSD breaks below 55660, the price may retest the 54600. 
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DatTong
Will the theme of weak demand and oversupply dampen oil prospectMacro theme: - Oil prices have declined since last week as investors expect an OPEC+ supply increase in Oct and a potential deal in Libya to resume production, possibly adding over 500,000 barrels per day. - Weak economic data from China, including Tue's ISM Manufacturing PMI, highlighted the country's sluggish recovery, fuelling calls for more stimulus. - Concerns over China's weak demand and the prospect of increased supply are likely to keep oil prices under pressure in the short term. Technical theme: - USOIL tested EMAs' area confluence with 77.00 resistance before breaking below 71.50 support to maintain a bearish structure. - If USOIL maintains below the 71.50 level, the price may continue to decline to test 67.80 support. - On the contrary, if USOIL can close above 71.50, the price may retrace to retest its EMA21 along with the upper bound of its descending channel.
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by DatTong
Will EU CPI support a quick rebound of DXY?Macro theme: - The dollar hovered near its lowest in over a year but downside momentum is fading as markets have already priced in Sep easing. - A short-term rebound is possible if the EU CPI continues its downward trend this week. Technical theme: - DXY formed a small double-bottom pattern around 100.50 in the 4-hour chart and bounced up to retest its neckline, which is confluence with EMA21, indicating a potential trend shift. - If DXY closes above its neckline around 100.90, the index may retrace further to retest the previous swing high around 101.60. - Conversely, DXY may retest the bottoms again if it closes below 100.80.
TVC:DXYLong
by DatTong
Will the revision of the NFP help support the Gold price?Macro theme: - At the Jul meeting, most policymakers suggested easing policy in Sep would be appropriate if the data aligned with expectations. - Bets on more rate cuts grew after US Nonfarm Payrolls were revised down to 820K, raising doubts about the labor market's resilience to higher rates. - Investors are now waiting for Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday for guidance on the interest rate outlook, keeping markets stable for now. - Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to drive gold prices higher. Technical theme: - XAUUSD is still trading above the EMA21, indicating solid upward momentum persists. - If XAUUSD extends its gain, we can watch the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is around 2555. - On the contrary, if XAUUSD retraces before continuing, we must watch for 2480 and a lower level at 2431 before attempting any go-with-trend trades.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DatTong
Will the Dovish Tone from Shinichi Uchida Help Calm the Market?Macro theme: - The BoJ's 0.25% rate hike last Wednesday, the highest in 15 years, sparked a global stock rout. The surge in the low-yielding yen, widely used for acquiring high-yielding assets like stocks, led investors to unwind their positions in currency carry trades. - Global equity markets rebounded after BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the central bank would not raise interest rates during financial instability. This assurance pushed the yen lower and boosted market sentiment. - It is crucial to remember that panic sell-offs are often short-lived. Historically, markets have rebounded as new funding sources emerged. Currently, significant funds are parked in banks as cash or treasury bills, poised to invest in high-quality assets affected by the global panic. Technical theme: - USTEC recovered from its key support around 17300 and bounced back to close near its resistance at 18440. The index broke its ascending channel and closed well below both EMAs, indicating a potential mean reversal. - If USTEC closes above 18440, the index may retrace further to retest both EMAs and the broken ascending channel before resuming downward movement. On the contrary, if USTEC cannot close above 18440, the index may retest support around the 17000-17300 area.
CITYINDEX:USTECH100CFD
by DatTong
Will BoJ support Yen with a rate hike today?Macro theme: - On Wednesday, the BoJ announced an interest rate increase and a bond tapering plan, reflecting confidence in the domestic economy's recovery and concern over the weakened yen. - The BOJ raised the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 0.25%, marking the second rate rise this year after the Mar 19 increase, which ended negative interest rates, equity purchases, and yield curve controls. Technical theme: - USDJPY shifted its structure downward after breaking its support at 151.90. The price is trading below both EMAs, which is about to have a dead-cross signal, indicating that bearish momentum persists. - If USDJPY cannot sustain above 151.90, it may extend its loss to 150.80 and 146.50. - On the contrary, if USDJPY finds support at 151.90, the price may perform range trading within 151.90-155.80 till an apparent breakout occurs.
by DatTong
Will a higher printing of PCE impair Gold bull?Macro theme: The market is anticipating that the Fed will cut rates three times this year following the release of lower CPI numbers, which have fueled optimism that inflation is under control. Investors expect rate cuts in Sep, Nov, and Dec. This outlook is quite optimistic, given that the overall state of the US economy may not be dire enough to necessitate such aggressive measures immediately. The market is also awaiting the PCE data at the end of this week to confirm the disinflation trend further. Technical theme: - From a technical perspective, after topping at 2483, Gold had a significant correction to close below both the ascending channel and key support area 2420-2440. The price established a trading range of 2384-2440 and waited for an apparent breakout. - If Gold closes above its resistance area around 2420-2440, it may retest its last swing high at 2483. - On the contrary, if Gold extends its loss to below 2384, it may decline to 2330-2350 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DatTong
6
Will the Disinflation Trend Reinforce DXY Downward Momentum?Macro theme: - The highlight of the past week was inflation data. US Jun headline CPI slowed to 3% YoY (vs. 3.1% expected, 3.3% previous), and core CPI was 3.3% YoY (vs. 3.4% expected and previous). - The core service component has been declining, and rental prices may continue to fall due to delayed contract renewals. With this inflation trend, markets expect the Fed to make its first rate cut in Sep and another this year. - The dollar is likely to weaken, depending on the pace of monetary easing by other countries. If all major economies cut rates simultaneously, currency pairs may remain stable. Technical: - From a technical perspective, DXY broke its ascending channel and closed below both EMAs, shifting to bearish momentum. The index is right above its key support at 104.00. - If DXY extends its decline below 104.00, it may aim for a nearby support area around 102.75-103.00. - On the contrary, if 104.00 can hold the index above for a while, DXY may correct up to 104.90 before resuming its downward movement.
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
2
BTCUSD - Need 2 months to make TOPSIf you go back top of Dec 2017 and Jun 2019, you can notice that whenver BTC made the top, it always need 2 months for making Top. - The first month is always the last push (as far as possible). This is shown with a very long white candle with a noticible wick from above. - The second month is the confusing month after the last push and people have no ideas on what to do next. This is shown with a black candle can be medium size or small (size is not important here as it all shows that the Top is in place) So if we are on the last push of BTC for this month. This means the next month should be in Black candle. We will experience some confusions during next month but it ends up with a close < open. Then it's the reliable sign! If next month works like that, what we expect then? TIME: I expect 9-15 months of correction PRICE: I expect 50% correction at least (then BTC is about 30,000 or less) Altcoin: ??? Not a single Altcoin can survive with more than 50% value. Should we wait for the bottom? Yes, we should off the computer and wait for the bottom, then diversify 30% into BTC and 70% for Altcoins which are alive with around 10-20% values left. It's great time for shopping. Discuss below, thanks! :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DatTong
6
AUDUSD(DAILY): POSSIBLE UPTREND MOMENTUMOverview: We are presently on all-time major support on 0.70800 (Buyers' Zone) and it appears that price is finding it difficult to breakthrough hence a possible uptrend rally is imminent. This can also be confirmed with the present character of price not willing to continue the downward channel ABCD trend as you can see price not settling in comfortable at 0.67480 (on 3rd of Jan '19) as Buyers were quick to push price up to close @ 0.70050. Following this, we can see price bouncing off the support of the channel EFGH confirming the formation of an upward channel. However, there are two ways to view the price action on this pair. A possible downtrend or uptrend depending on how price relate with Resistance Q (0.71390). Signal/Entry confirmation: We shall sell if price rejects the resistance Q @ 0.71510 significantly (i.e. a bearish engulfing candle cutting through the major support @ 0.70800) which doesn't seem likely with the present look of things. However, if price breaks the Resistance Q and the resistance @ 0.71510 simultaneously to the upside with an engulfing bullish candle; we shall wait for a retest on Resistance Q to join the rally up. Uptrend Speculation: Potential TP @ 0.75260 (385pips) and SL @ 0.70340 (105pips) Downtrend Speculation(appears to be unlikely): Potential TP @ 0.68170 (445pips) and SL @ 0.72240(135pips)
Long
by darcsherry
GOLD(DAILY): UPTREND CONTINUATIONOverview: Price has broken through the flag pattern formation to the upside indicating an uptrend continuation. The channel EFGH (upward range in green) emphasizes a channel continuation to the upside as well. Note that price was unable to break the hidden range ABCD the last time it was there (15th May 2018). Now it is back into this range 9 months after with a potential to break it to the upside. Signal/Entry confirmation: We wait for a significant break through the major resistance @ 1320.00 for precise entry to join the rally up. Speculation: Using Fib Ext at QRS a maximum TP projection falls on 1365 (Fib Ext 1.272). Potential TP @ 1365.00 (440pips) and SL @ 1303.00 (190pips)
FX:XAUUSDLong
by darcsherry