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GER40 swing trade(UPDATE)Last week we were looking for a sell from 18500 with many technical confluences. We also had a 11 day straight bull run without any meaningful retracements. This is a continuation to the previous idea, as the price did not react from our level of interest and kept pushing higher. Currently waiting for 18800, which is the Weekly 0.786 fib level drawn from the all time high. We target 18500-18450 for our TP1. Will update next week. As always, trade safe and wait for confirmations before entering a trade. Fractals Trading Community, Mei
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by martinmei
European Shares Gain as DAX Holds Bullish Momentum Ahead of CPIEuropean Shares Rise, Led by Tech and Resources Sectors European shares opened higher on Wednesday, with gains driven by the tech and basic resources sectors, as investors await a key U.S. inflation report for insights into the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. The DAX remains in a bullish momentum zone as long as it trades above 18,180, with potential targets at 18,520 and, beyond that, 18,645. The trend is expected to remain bullish ahead of the inflation data, and if the data aligns with expectations, this momentum is likely to strengthen. However, a break below 18,180 could signal a downturn, with the price potentially falling towards 17,960. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 18300 Resistance Levels: 18520, 18640, 18780 Support Levels: 18180, 17970, 17740 Expected Range: 18180 - 18780 Trend: Bullish as long as the price stays above 18,290 and 18,180.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by SroshMayi
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Neutral. Won’t be running into any more traps again. Both sides have reasonable arguments but bulls closed last week at the highs, so bulls are slightly favored. Best pattern currently is probably the big bull wedge we are in. Bulls want a retest of the ath 18990 and bears below 18000. Bullish above 18750 and bearish below 18200, neutral in between. Quote from last week: comment: Selling is already too strong for a pullback in a bull trend. We are in a big trading range and on our way to test the lower range somewhere between 17000 - 17500. Do we get there in a straight line like we went up in August? Highly unlikely but so was the climactic selling and the insane reversal over the past 5 weeks. comment : Disappointment bar on Monday, bears tried again on Tuesday and Wednesday but market held above 18200 and bears then quickly gave up. My bearishness last week was a bit too strong but slightly profitable until the reversal on Wednesday. So, not much harm done. Market formed a bull wedge and if bulls can close the bear gap to 18750 on Monday, we will very likely see 18990 or 19000 over the next days. Bears have nothing until they can get below 18200 or we reach 19000. I don’t think that many traders will be interested in buying above 19000 but let’s see next week. current market cycle: big trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls did not do much on Monday and Tuesday but enough to make many bears take profits early and stall the market and bears were not having that, so they gave up. Bulls are favored if they get above 18750 but I think it’s very close to 50/50 if we make a new ath. Market is undecided to the max and we see many traps on any time frame. We are above the daily ema and the bull trend line from the wedge, so bulls are slightly favored. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears gave up on Thursday and do they want to fight it at 18700? I don’t think so. Thu + Fr was strong enough that we can expect a retest of the ath next week and there I expect stronger selling to happen again. Since we did not print 19000 so far, it’s an obvious magnet and market’s rarely touch those big round numbers and reverse from there. We will likely overshoot some before big bears come around. Make no mistake, this buying here is purely absolutely atrocious from any reasonable valuation level given many German macro indicators but that stuff will only destroy your account so let’s not go there. Market is overvalued and we will likely see 17000 again this year. Invalidation is above 18750. outlook last week: short term: Bearish but only on momentum again. Any pullback has to stay below 18700. Next targets for bears are 18000 and below that is 17500. Fun times ahead. → Last Sunday we traded 18301 and now we are at 18699. Bears fumbled it on Wednesday and then quickly gave up. Bearish momentum was there on Tuesday but they barely made a new low. Anyhow, bad outlook. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 18750 for 18900+, bearish below 18200 and neutral in between. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Cut those shorts on Thursday and will try again around 19000 if bears come around. chart update: Added a bull wedge again and made the bear gap smaller.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
2024-09-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - What a bear trap that was. Many decent double bottoms and then straight up melting. Many markets did not even touch the 3m 20ema on the move up. Bulls took full control again imo and I expect the highs to be retested, if not broken. SP500 the strongest of the ones I trade. Very very low chance of this being a bull trap after a bear trap and we reverse hard tomorrow but at this point of the chop, I won’t rule anything out. dax futures comment: Dax is not looking that strong like the sp500 does. Technically it’s currently just a two legged pullback to the daily ema and odds still favor the bears for another leg down. If the bulls break above 18550, that changes and bulls are favored to trade back to 18800 and above. Very important day tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range until either 18550 or 18200 broken key levels: 18200 - 18550 bull case: Strong reversal after the double bottom around 18220 today. If bulls generate follow through above 18550 tomorrow, many bears could give up and we see an acceleration upwards. Invalidation is below 18400 (not sure about the invalidation level as of now). bear case: Bears need a bit of a miracle tomorrow to prevent the bulls from breaking above 18550. The bear channel is gone and the 4h ema too. What arguments do bears have? Well, the current price action is wild in both directions. Since Friday we are in a 400ish point trading range. Technically, on the daily chart, it’s still just a two legged pullback to the daily ema and bears could try to get another leg down, I just highly doubt those arguments are better than the bullish ones. Invalidation is above 18550. short term : I wait for the breakout above given price. Bears would need to trade below 18400 before I think about shorts again. 18500 is a bad spot to enter new positions. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day : Short near the 4h ema was once again a very good trade. Buying the double bottom bar 4 Tuesday and bar 4 today.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
DAX - BEARISH CORRECTION BEFORE CPITechnical Analysis DAX The price remains within a bearish zone as long as it trades below 18,520, with potential targets at 18,290 and, below that, 18,180. Ahead of the inflation data, the trend is expected to remain bearish. However, during the release of inflation data, a reversal to a bullish direction is possible due to potential rate cuts. Stabilization above 18,520 would support a rise towards 18,640 and 18,780. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 18520 Resistance Levels: 18640, 18780, 18970 Support Levels: 18345, 18260, 18180 Expected Range: 18540 - 18260 Trend: Bearish as long as the price remains below 18520.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by SroshMayi
2024-09-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Dax puked hard but bulls are also making money there. Rest of my followed indexes were mixed. Bears still expect a bigger second leg down when you look at the daily charts. Add the bull trend lines to the current bear flags and wait for a break below. If we get it, I do think most bulls will cover. I am not too fond of buying currently. dax futures comment: 4h ema is your guide. Saw multiple rejections there again and sold off hard. Market is going straight up and down, bears are in control but both sides make money. We have a decent bear channel but bears were not strong enough to touch the lower trend line again, before bulls bought it aggressively. I think they can get it above 18420 or higher. If not, the bear trend could accelerate downwards but I doubt that. Overall markets are too two sided currently. current market cycle : bear trend key levels : 18200 - 18550 bull case: No close above the 4h ema, no breakout above previous highs but market is two sided enough for bulls to make money. No better arguments for them until they make higher highs and higher lows again. I think 18000 is probably the next bigger support where it could happen but bears already had 3 pushes down and pullbacks. Chances for a 4th or 5th leg down are very small so bulls could try to keep it above 18210. Invalidation is below 18440. bear case: Lower highs, lower lows. Bears are in control. No more magic to it. We have the 4h ema as a good sport to short and the upper bear channel line. Market did bounce 10 points above my calculated 50% pullback for the bull trend and tomorrow will be interesting if bears can do a lower high again and break below 18200. Much easier to trade this currently, if you look more at higher than lower time frames, which leads me to the argument for the bulls about the 3 pushes down. On the daily chart bears see one giant leg down and want another one. We are currently in a bear flag and if bulls fail to trade above 18700, odds favor the bears for a giant second leg down. Invalidation is above 18523. short term : Bullish for 18440+ but problem is the stop. If you would short 18303, where would you put it? Only good one is 18209 but that could easily get tested again. Best to not trade in the middle of the channel or only on very strong momentum. Above 18440 I favor shorts again, if we stay below 18523. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Closed the shorts too early. Bad trading on my part. Read was good though. Also expected the bounce but got stopped out badly because I entered too early and market dropped way deeper than expected. trade of the day: Short near the 4h ema.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-09-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Green across the board. On the daily charts it’s mostly a small to normal bullish inside bar, so nothing to get excited about yet for the bulls. Tomorrow will be very important for the bears. If they fail to test the lows again or stop the pullback, many bears could give up and let the bulls test the highs again. In my weekly outlook I wrote that the 4h ema is currently the most important one and almost all markets respected it and closed below. Will look for early weakness and want to short for retest of the Friday lows. dax futures comment: Market closed below the 4h ema so bears remain in control. I think the odds favor the bears for a retest of the lows and some more sideways movement before we get another impulse. On the 15m chart there is a clear bull channel which is good to trade for now. Will probably see a contraction in Globex and early EU session before a breakout above or below. current market cycle: trading range - below 18260 we know we are in a bear trend inside the bigger trading range. key levels: 18260 - 18600 bull case : Bulls need a 1h close above the 4h ema and the next target above is 18638 which is Friday’s high. If they get above it, most bears will give up on the bear trend pattern and we likely see acceleration upwards. Bulls need to defend the current bull channel where the lower trend line is currently around 18440. Invalidation is below 18440. bear case : Bears currently have 2 decent bear gaps on the daily chart. If they can keep the market below the 4h ema, that would help their case big time. Bear targets are 18400 and then 18300. Invalidation is above 18550 (daily 20ema). short term: Bears are still in control and the odds favor a second leg down. The pullback need to stay below 18550ish, give or take. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Swing short since 18454 with SL 18600/18650. Will add higher if necessary. trade of the day: Buying 18400 was decent today. Bulls defended that price and market was two sided enough for a couple of scalps.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
DAX H4 | Overlap resistance at 50.0% Fibonacci retracementDAX (GER30) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 18,658.25 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 18,900.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 18,269.64 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Full bear mode. Bull trap and of August after making a new ath. Market is clearly in a hurry to go down again. Stairs up, elevator down. Most likely the bear gap to 18750 will stay open and every short sl has to be around that price. 1. tp is 50% pullback 18000 and as of now I expect a pullback there or more sideways movement. Below 18000 we will see 17400 fast. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls printed a new ath and if you would look at the RSI, which I don’t, it would show a divergence. You really really don’t need the RSI to tell you that. Even so, market could go higher and there is no reason to short this yet. I am 90% certain this is not a W1 of a new bull trend that will break above the bull wedge but rather a retest of the highs, in this case a higher high, and it will reverse soon enough. A bigger pullback is overdue but that does not mean you can short this yet. comment: Selling is already too strong for a pullback in a bull trend. We are in a big trading range and on our way to test the lower range somewhere between 17000 - 17500. Do we get there in a straight line like we went up in August? Highly unlikely but so was the climactic selling and the insane reversal over the past 5 weeks. current market cycle: big trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: As expected, the first decent selling on Monday and bulls are running for the exits. Climactic buying, followed by climactic selling. I don’t expect the bulls to fight this, like the bears did not fight anything from 17400 to 18990. The 50% pullback at 18000 is a decent target where the bulls could try to stall it and hope for a bounce. At this point it’s useless to try to call a top or anything beyond the next 2 weeks. If anything, it’s 50/50 if we make another ath this year or not. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears came around right below 19000 and produced strong enough selling to trigger many stops. Bulls are fearful that we test all the way back down to 17000 and that’s why we don’t see much resistance from them. In any bear case over the next weeks, the bear gap to 18730 has to stay open. On the weekly chart it’s now an expanding triangle which is a form of a trading range. To hit 17000 over the next 1-2 weeks would be amazing for the bears again but I highly doubt they could get the market below, without any serious deterioration of macro schmackro stuff. Something has to break for this market to trade back to not maximum overvalued bubble territory. If you don’t think dax above 18000 is bubble territory while gdp is -0.3% for 2023 and flat at best in 2024, I can’t help you. Invalidation is above 18700. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. I’m confident we will reverse soon but it’s too early to be looking for shorts. Bears need to start making lower lows and lower highs before I start. What do I need to go long? Only scalps after pullbacks for me. Very little interest in buying up here because I do not see this going to 19200. → Last Sunday we traded 18906 and now we are at 18301. It was too early for shorts last Sunday but during Tuesday’s session it became clearer that the market wanted to go down. short term: Bearish but only on momentum again. Any pullback has to stay below 18700. Next targets for bears are 18000 and below that is 17500. Fun times ahead. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Decent to be in swing shorts now. Stop has to be 18700 or even 19000. Will join the bears on Monday, if they go straight below 18270 or on a decent pullback to 18500. chart update: Nothing. Removed the bull wedge and added the bear gap.
XETR:DAXShort
by priceactiontds
2024-09-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bears are selling the rips but most markets are contracting. Will most likely see a big move tomorrow but I don’t have a strong opinion on the direction. Very slightly favoring the bears for a bigger second leg down. dax futures comment: Y close was 18625 and today’s close was 18624. We oscillate around this price. Every time market does this, you are in a trading range and should not over analyze it. Look at the daily chart and get a sense of what the market is trying to do. Right now bears are in control but with every day of sideways movement, their control vanes and market becomes more neutral and I do think that if bears do not get their big second leg down started tomorrow, the chances of a break above or below are equal. current market cycle: trading range - wait for a clear breakout above or below given key levels key levels: 18500 - 18700 bull case: Bulls are making higher highs and higher lows but it’s still a tight bear flag on the daily chart. The bear gap to 18800 is still open and as long as that’s the case, bears are in control. Best bulls can do is make the market go sideways more until both sides are unsure about the next impulse, which means market is in balance. I think below 18500 most bulls will give up. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears are selling the rips but are not fighting for new lows right now. Market had is probably waiting for tomorrow’s US data to find more liquidity. No opinion on that data or the direction we will break out, other than I think bears are still favored for a second leg down. Should you be short right now in hopes of that? Clear no from me. Always better to get confirmation before entering the trade, unless you are good at scaling in and already rich af. Invalidation is above 18750. short term: Bears are in control and the odds favor a second leg down. Above 18700 I get more neutral and below 18570 I expect 18500 to follow soon and if bears break that, we will likely get the big second leg. Nothing changed in my short term outlook. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. Maybe tomorrow but only interested in shorts. trade of the day: Buying the open was by far the best one. Again. Don’t get bearish at the lows or bullish at the highs in trading ranges. Betting on breakouts is a losing strategy when market is this undecided.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today. dax futures comment: Bears kept the 140 point gap to Tuesday’s close open and that shows strength. Bulls could not get a bar above the 1h ema today and I’d be surprised if it stays that way. Bears are in control and they want a second leg down. A measured move would bring us to almost exactly 18000. Absolutely favoring the bears to do that instead of bulls getting above 18800 again. current market cycle: huge trading range (below 18500 the minor bear trend inside the range is confirmed) key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case : Bulls can be happy if they can keep the market going sideways. Today’s open price was not tested and we closed above the daily ema, which shows some strength by the bulls. For higher prices bulls need a strong 1h close above the ema and that’s all I can come up with for the bulls right now. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears have the big round number 18500 to break for lower prices. They are clearly in control again and they want to stay below the 1h ema for a measured move down to 18000. Below 18570 I expect many bull stops to be hit and we will test 18500 and there I expect bulls to come around more strongly again and trying to hold it. We already have a decent looking bear channel or wedge on the 1h tf. I want to see what the Globex session brings and then I will decide tomorrow morning if I do a swing short for 18000 with a stop 18800/18850. Invalidation is above 18750. short term: Bears are in control and the odds favor a second leg down. Above 18700 I get more neutral and below 18570 I expect 18500 to follow soon and if bears break that, we will likely get the big second leg. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Will decide Thursday morning if I do a swing short. 18000 would be my first tp and stop at least 18820. trade of the day: Buying the open was by far the best one. Otherwise shorting 18670 the next best thing.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
DAX H1 | Potential bearish breakoutDAX (GER30) is falling towards a potential breakout level and could drop lower from here. Sell entry is at 18,488.94 which is a potential breakout level. Stop loss is at 18,700.00 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance and a descending trendline. Take profit is at 18,248.14 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
DAX to continue in the upward move?GER40 - 24h expiry Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 18973. There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. 20 4hour EMA is at 18886. We look to Buy at 18885 (stop at 18765) Our profit targets will be 19185 and 19265 Resistance: 18973 / 19100 / 19200 Support: 18900 / 18770 / 18700 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
DAX(GER30), nuke is coming?I explained the fundamental part in my EURUSD post. Check it out here: Now, let's talk about the technical part: At the London opening, we saw significant manipulation downward with a liquidity sweep from the previous day's low (PDL) and other swings. Now, I would love to see an aggressive movement upwards toward the all-time high (ATH), where I'll be looking for a short setup. However, if the price closes on the 1-4h time frame with a big fat candle, I won't touch the GER40 (DAX) for a while because there won't be any targets ("sky is the limit") to get liquidity from. There's one possible scenario: a move into premium after the first market structure (MS) shift today, followed by a second shift (break of structure, BoS). Bearish order flow will be confirmed, with the final target being the 4h fair value gap (FVG).
FOREXCOM:GER40Short
by Almenio
#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr 4th consecutive bull bar closing on it’s high. Low volume but who cares. Can only be bullish on this price action. Futures are close to the ath while xetra already made a new ath. 19000 on xetra will most likely be hit next week. Will bears come around there to trap late bulls? Maybe but I would not bet on that. R:R (risk:reward) is on the bear side here but it’s too early to short. Could even go up to 19200 before turning. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls went mostly sideways until Friday which means that bears are still not doing much. Friday produced another breakout for W5, where my target is still 18800ish. Low probability the bear trend line from the ath will hold again. If bulls can get this above 18800, there is no reason to not print a new ath. Bears would need consecutive bear bars below 18500 to stop it. Bulls should not have the illusion that this is something other than a short squeeze. This is not buying on higher volume due to more market participants wanting in on the next bull run to 30000. This will crumble soon enough but for now it’s only going up and you should never fight the trend. comment : Bulls printed a new ath and if you would look at the RSI, which I don’t, it would show a divergence. You really really don’t need the RSI to tell you that. Even so, market could go higher and there is no reason to short this yet. I am 90% certain this is not a W1 of a new bull trend that will break above the bull wedge but rather a retest of the highs, in this case a higher high, and it will reverse soon enough. A bigger pullback is overdue but that does not mean you can short this yet. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. Will reverse soon. key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls closed the month at the highs while making a new ath. It’s a buy signal but the move is so climactic without any pullbacks, that most bulls will probably get out on a decent bear bar. The first pullback will most likely fail and it will probably be a decent buying opportunity but buying 18900 right now is bad any way you look at it. What upside do you expect? Strong breakout above 19200? Where do you put your stop? The whole move up happened above the 1h 20ema. So if bears finally break it and trade consecutive bear bars below, bulls might start thinking about taking profits. Invalidation is below 18750. bear case: As mentioned above, 1h ema held for 3 weeks now. Only objective for the bears is to stop the market from making higher highs and breaking below the 1h ema. 19000 is the best area for them to achieve that. If they don’t come around on Monday, we might es well see 19200 or higher. Invalidation is above 19050. outlook last week: short term: Absolutely neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion. → Last Sunday we traded 18633 and now we are at 18906. Neutral was wrong again since bears touched the 1h ema once last week and that was on Monday. 1h on xetra and on futures you’d have to take the 2h 20ema. short term: Neutral again. I’m confident we will reverse soon but it’s too early to be looking for shorts. Bears need to start making lower lows and lower highs before I start. What do I need to go long? Only scalps after pullbacks for me. Very little interest in buying up here because I do not see this going to 19200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Nope. Not yet. chart update: Nothing. Bull wedge is still valid.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
2024-08-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bulls bought the big after hour dip yesterday and had a big rally but damn that was some big and fast selling in the last 2 hours of the US session. What did we learn today? Shift into Dax and DJI, since they just melted again and new ATH on both (dax xetra, not futures though) and rest of the markets made lower highs and lower lows. Still absolutely neutral imo but if bears get follow through tomorrow, the highs are probably in for this bull leg. dax futures comment: 3 clearn pushes up to a new xetra ath and volume is picking up again. Time for a reversal. Can you short this yet? I think so but stop has to be 19050ish and we are still above many bull trend lines. If you want higher probability, wait for bears to make lower lows again. Absolute ripper of a bull leg since early August and given the atrocious volume, had to be a short squeeze. I expect the next 2000 points will be made to the downside over the next 10 weeks. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels : 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls were relentlessly buying this but now with a new ath and all the remaining bear stops hit, market is free to do whatever. Bulls could do a blow-off top 19100/19200 before strongly reversing but i favor a retest of 19000 tomorrow before sideways to down movement. Bulls want to stay above 18800 as long as possible. Invalidation is below 18800. bear case: Bears want to trap as many late bulls as possible but before more bears come around and more bulls begin to take profits, we would need to start breaking bull trend lines and producing consecutive bear bars on higher time frames. The daily chart tells you everything you need to know as a bear right now. Below 18800 bears start to have some arguments but as of now, expect BTFD to continue until it has clearly stopped. Invalidation is above 18800. short term: If you get bullish at a new ath, no one can help you. Trend is your friend and all that but betting on another leg up is gambling at best. Scalp long if the momentum is there but get out early. This can and probably will turn soon. Absolutely neutral as of now and only touching it if one side is clearly in control. Caught a 60 point drop today, very happy with that. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nope but long term shorts are looking juicy. trade of the day: Buying the open was again very profitable. Long above bar 29 was very reasonable. Shorting below bar 72 was also a good trade, one which I took.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
DAX H4 | Strong bullish momentumDAX (GER30) is looking to make a bullish break above a swing-high resistance and could potentially rise higher from here. Buy entry is at 18,855.31 (wait for the 1-hour candle to close above this level for confirmation). Stop loss is at 18,700.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support. Take profit is at 19,008.06 which is a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Long
by FXCM
DAX ahead of a mega 1W Bullish Cross.Last month (July 15, see chart below), we made a bold Megaphone prediction on DAX (FDAX1!), which delivered both an excellent sell opportunity and a bottom buy entry: The situation now is more difficult as despite DAX's recovery, the U.S. markets are under a certain degree of volatility. We need to zoom out to the 1W time-frame to answer that and get a better understanding of the long-term trend. The key development will be the upcoming formation of a 1W MACD Bullish Cross. It will be the first since November 20 2023, which was in fact the last time the index hit and rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), forming the previous Higher Low of the 2-year Channel Up. As a result, having already tested and rebounded earlier this month on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 9 months, we believe that the current 4-week green rally will be extended. The last two Bullish Legs of the Channel Up initially rose by +16.74% and +23.84% before their first corrective pull-back. As a result, our Target on the medium-term is 19800 (+16.74% rise from the recent bottom). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingShot
DAX H4 | Falling to overlap supportThe DAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 18,579.74 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 18,400.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support. Take profit is at 18,760.14 which is a swing-high resistance.0 High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Long
by FXCM