German DAX minimum target at 11655Expecting a bear rally from today (@ 13330 level) and later to print a lower target @ 13655
Green arrow ---> expected bear rally
Red arrow ---> crash to minimum 13655 level
INDEX:DEU40
XETR:DAX
VANTAGE:DAX40
DAX Index
DAX: Overbought and in need of a technical correction.DAX is almost overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 69.159, MACD = 322.400, ADX = 30.730) and heavily on the 1W (RSI = 76.198), which suggests that the long term trend is massively bullish but on the short term a pull back below the 1D MA50 is needed in order to harmonize the supply and demand equilibrium. The index has already been rejected at the top of the HH Zone, which is a first sign for a potential pullback. Even though in the first two quarters of 2023 it spent considerable time inside this Zone before making a correction (even under the 1D MA200), this time the 'necessity' for a short term correction is greater. We are aiming for the pattern minimum of -6.42% (TP = 17,450).
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DAX weekly forecast from April 2nd, 2024Situation assessment XETR:DAX
1. We have reached another trend reversal zone
2. In our opinion, “much” after “above” is no longer possible in the future
We would like to apologize for the inaccuracy of last week's forecast {wink} when we headlined as follows:
1. Weekly UP peak: between 18,406 and 18,518 (Bonus: 18,630)
2. In perspective, EUREX:FDAX1! The next striking decision zone is 18,777 (+/-) in focus.
The weekly XETR:DAX peak was reached with 5 points less at exactly 18,513.83 and to create this forecast the FDAX reached 18,776 in late trading ;-). The rest of the forecast is also impressive...
Be that as it may, at the beginning of April we will be flooded with some standardized purchase orders (funds, savings plans, etc.) until the April expiry, which will give the DAX a slight further boost. Professional traders use this as an opportunity, especially at the end of the quarter, to take antagonistic positions and carry out a latent “rebalance” at the next quarterly end in June.
In perspective, we see the round 18,650 / 680 in XETR:DAX as a potential high point before we could take corrective measures. This would be equivalent to approximately $18,995 EUREX:FDAX1! points.
For the homeopathic Waver faction among us: … we see the 3 of the running 5 at the final end, before we get the 4... . As you have probably already noticed, we don't like "mystical wave predictions" - although we do take the "waves" into account in our models, just as emotionless and interpretation-free mathematical functions, e.g. in the form of adaptive signal decomposition . In addition, other factors often play a much more crucial role for professional traders than the “Bloomberg” faction is trying to sell us.
As long as XETR:DAX 18,535 can be validly overcome on a daily basis as of April 2nd over the course of the week, the gates are open for us to achieve even higher goals via 18,613 / 683. For this it would be necessary to overcome the 18,726 valid on a daily closing price basis over the course of the week. If this happens, nothing stands in the way of the ~18,900 to 19,095 / 209 until the April monthly witch dance.
From a standard pivot perspective, the XETR:DAX weekly-monthly comparison shows 18,646 / 679 as a valid resistance zone. Furthermore, the R2 annual pivot is at 18,597, which will not have an exact braking effect at this point, but will have a braking effect in this region.
Unless an exogenous black swan emerges, it is not worth paying much attention to the downside for the coming week. On the one hand, the hedging needs (VDAX, SKEW, ...) speak against this and, on the other hand, our trend barometer and the general momentum currently show no reason to worry. On the contrary: setbacks will be bought (!).
Nevertheless, the XETR:DAX Magistrale (MoB) is at 18,247 for the coming week. Only when it is validly below... is it time to consider a short strategy and set an anchor point again (did you remember? ;))
However, don't forget: we are in a shortened trading week in the western-oriented world with lower sales in the future and the associated volatile uncertainties (!) So don't be disappointed if the high in March has already been marked with the April contract change .
If you value this article and the work involved, follow us and give us a thumbs up - it doesn't hurt (:-)
It is worth mentioning “by the way” that in terms of chart technology we have achieved an extension from 2000 – 2008 with ~18,485.
We forecast based on mathematical models for XETR:DAX as follows:
1. Trend barometer: UP
2nd week UP peak: between 18,613 and 18,683 (Bonus: 18,726)
3rd week DOWN peak: between 18,357 and 18,287
4. Arithmetic mean: between 18,384 and 18,586
5. MOB technical price mark: 18,428
6. Pivot fluctuation range: 18,216 / 18,722
7. Fair Value GD / Low / High: 18,440 / 904 / 935
8. VIX Zones: 11.58 / 12.66
Notes
=====
Stock market rule: Markets can behave irrationally longer than you can remain solvent (John Maynard Keynes)
Forecasts are what they are: A look into the future taking into account the past, which can change dynamically, positively or negatively, from the time of publication
To create this forecast, a trend-following system (TM) developed in-house using, among other things, mathematical, statistical, rolling, volume-based, differential analysis methods is used and accordingly shortened and simplified in an informative, non-indirect manner here on Tradingview in the generally accessible public area free of charge for personal use.
The continuation of the bullish market and then the wave degree Dear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him.
Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
Mr. Nobody
GBPUSD Based on my analysis, I recommend not taking a trade on GBPUSD as it is likely to reach the resistance level. Buying at this point would be risky as it goes against the current trend. However, if you do decide to take the buy trade, please be sure to respect the stop loss and exit the trade if necessary.
DAX H4 | Approaching overlap supportThe DAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 18,131.66 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 17,850.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 18,779.98 which is a level that aligns with the 100.0% Fibonacci projection level.
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DAX Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
>> USE PAGE DN to go DOWN To the LATEST Post <<
--------------------
2-25-2024
Strong Upside Momentum with wide GREEN TrapZone established now and GREEN UMVD continues. Class A Entry at the top of the TrapZone.
DAX (DAX Index): Waves of uncertainty 🌊DAX (DAX Index): XETR:DAX
We recognize that our analysis might diverge from other analysts', but our assessment clearly indicates that the DAX is currently in an overarching Wave 4, visible on the weekly chart within a multi-year scenario. This holds unless we surpass the 18,000 level. If we move beyond 18,000, a reevaluation and recount would be necessary. Until then, we anticipate a decline in the DAX over the coming weeks, months, and possibly years. The exact timing, whether it rises or falls, cannot be pinpointed to a specific year. However, it's important to note that as long as the DAX doesn't exceed 138%, or the 18,000 mark, we expect to be in an Expanded Flat scenario. This aligns well with our expectations for Wave C or the overarching Wave IV, which should fall below Wave (A), fitting the pattern where both B and C waves overshoot in an Expanded Flat.
Examining the 4-hour chart, we encounter the same scenario. Without flipping this key level, no significant change is expected. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts suggest an imminent rise, not immediately obvious on the daily or weekly charts, predicting a climb to around 17,500 euros before a downturn in the DAX. We do not anticipate an immediate reversal today or tomorrow but expect a final upward impulse before a corrective move downwards.
DE40 DAX sell scenarioDax de40 have been in a crazy bull run since few months and i think its time for a slow down. oblique support have been broke, index is oversold in weekly and we can see it loosing bull power and forming flat top in lower timeframe. I think we can see it make a last push up in the 18100 area and then start a correction since the market like to sell high. i will try a short in this area after a good final push. i will five SL and TP 1 once we reach the potential selling area.
Resistance overhead?The DAX (DE40) could rise towards a resistance level at 18,263.22 which has been identified as a pivot point. Could price stall around this level before potentially making a bearish reaction to drop lower?
Pivot: 18,263.22
Support: 18,005.20
Resistance: 18,431.16
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DAX up until yield curve reverses upwardSurrounded by bears > i thought I'd post a bullish view.
On the weekly chart SMA 7, 20, 50 & EMA 200 all pointing up...
SMA 50 about non crossing EMA 200 will be the confirmation the trend i snot over... we'll see end of week with NFP.
If bull is confirmed Targets are on chart... Estimated ATH summer/sept 2023
Red line invalidate the concept !
#DAX, #GER30 is ready to fall.-----------DAX DOWNSIDE MOVE IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN-----------
DAX index shows a few signs that it is ready to deep dive. The course is at all time high. Economic indicators like GDP, interes rate, emloyment don't support that optimistic behaviour. Weekly RSI is at overbought territory. And daily RSI shows divergence. I think it is time to re-consider the long positions at least or rather start to build a short position on German stock index.
Potential bounce to new ATHs?The DAX (DE40) could fall towards an overlap support at 17,903.18 which has been identified as a pivot point. Price could potentially bounce off this level to make a new all-time-high (ATH).
Pivot: 17,903.18
Support: 17,659.90
Resistance: 18,263.12
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DAX, will the next crisis end the current phase?Hello everyone,
this is not a usual trading analysis. So don't take any trades from monthly levels, as you can't manage the risk at all. What you can see is my try to figure out how the DAX went through different states of price development and really interesting to see is, that every big crisis ended one phase and opened a new one.
In my point of view we are currently at the way to the upper boundary of the recent phase and should reach it within the next year. The question is, where will the price finally find a solid ATH and start to correct? According to my last daily analysis a strong zone could be around 17.600, but if the economy is holding really strong into next years, higher prices are possible of course.
If you want to be in the big short trade, that I'm anticipating from the upper boundary, you have to wait patiently for a fundamental crisis, which has more impact than the banking crisis, energy crisis or the current wars, as they didn't stop the price for a long time.
The only reason I can anticipate for now is a comeback of high inflation with even higher interest rates, that end up in a big recession and the consequences for the banking and financial system. I will monitor this scenario next year, especially the month february and march are likely to offer crisis potential.
DAX: Overbought on 1D and in need of a technical correction.What makes us expect a technical correction this time, is the similarity in terms of RSI with mid February 2023. It took another 3 weeks for the price to decline but not before the RSI completed a Cup and Handle pattern. That was a -8.00% decline, we are aiming from the current levels for a -6.40% decline, which happened another 2 times, so our target is near the S1 level (TP = 16,900).
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Dax Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
DAX H4 | Falling to pullback supportThe DAX (GER40) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 17,658.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 17,451.85
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that sits under the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 18,255.53
Why we like it:
There is a resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection level
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DAX Correction very likely. Target 17100.DAX (DE40) is extending a very strong Bullish Leg, which started after the previous short-term correction ended on January 17 2024 with a contact on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is part of an overall Bullish Wave that emerged on the latest Higher Low (October 27 2023) of the 1.5 year Channel Up.
However as the 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross (which has been a sell signal within this pattern) while the price is already on the -0.382 Fibonacci extension level (which is where it was rejected on the previous Bullish Leg on March 07 2023), we are turning bearish on DAX on the medium-term, targeting the previous Resistance at 17100.
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DAX to find support at market price?DE30EUR - 24h expiry
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 17904.
We look to buy dips.
50 4hour EMA is at 17685.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Offers ample risk/reward to buy at the market.
We look to Buy at 17690 (stop at 17590)
Our profit targets will be 17940 and 17990
Resistance: 17760 / 17907 / 18000
Support: 17710 / 17618 / 17500
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If Germany is the sick man of Europe. #Bayer looking deathlyThe #EU is Marxist, Socialist, and is involved in Price setting
That didn't work out too well for USSR as economic powerhouse
and so too we see the once great German economy being brought to it's knees.
It is being de-industralized and being brought down in a great economic levelling of the union
Such a shame
Bayer Pharmaceutical is arguably a company we could do without .. so this chart does not upset me too much ...
But it is major component of the #DAX and highlights the economic pain that Germany may indeed go through in the next recession.
#202411 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daGood day and i hope you are well.
There is a theory of markets, that the ‘Generals’ usually lead the way for the next impulse. I have no idea about the proven probabilities of that but let’s just talk about some big stocks here, which supports my bigger bearish market thesis, that this still might be the blow-off top at the end of a very long ongoing bull trend which is exhausted and will turn around soon.
Apple: Just broke below or is at the monthly 20ema; -15% from the ATH; 2 consecutive red months and the third is forming; clear sell signal below 160
Google: below the weekly 20ema; -15% from ATH; increasing volume on bear days; will become clear sell below 120
Nvidia: The peak bubble of bubbles -11.18% on Friday with very high volume; bulls will take profits for their lifes below 800
JP Morgan: holding strong at the highs - might be the last to turn around - just printed 2 bad looking bars for the bulls
dax
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000.
Not much new happening compared to last week. Bulls broke above a bull channel, got a retest of that breakout trend line and made a new ath.
bull case: Bears printing a small pullback on the daily chart which probably will be bought up to 18000 and maybe higher. Market gives no signal to stop buying for new highs so algos won't stop. Adjusted my wave outlooks a bit. Nothing bearish about this at all, 18000 is the next logical target and my bullish wave thesis is still going strong. My target was 18400 for this bull leg but ofc it could be that we over/undershoot. If bears manage to get it down to 17700, that was support last time and i expect bulls to buy it again.
bear case: Everything in here is very low probability. Bulls are in full control and odds favor the bulls then. Best bears can get here is probably a trading range 17600 - 18000. Bears have not done anything to close this enormous bull gap 17150 - 17670 on the daily chart.
outlook last week: “sideways to up is the high probability but bad r:r trade. if bears get a strong beginning of the week, my exhaustion thesis might be correct and we drop below 17000 again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 17775 and now we are at 17791. Ok outlook. Bears created very weak bear bars on the daily chart, which made every bear cautious and scalping. Bulls took over on Wednesday where they stalled the market and bears then gave up on Thursday.
short term: up is the only way and it will take way more from the bears to stop it. should only look for longs or very big consecutive bear bars with follow through before shorting
medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. —unchanged
#EWG German Market Index ready for a retracement?We seem to be reversing off the top of this multi-channel area at 31.25. In Addition, RSI has bearish divergence and we also recently had a demark13 countdown which could signal an exhaustion in trend. Watch for a reversal to take place off the current area. Perhaps a move back to the 50day moving average which currently sits at +- 29.60 and rising daily, is a potential short term target.
DAX Remains In UptrendDAX has seen some deep pullback in 2023, but it was A-B-C drop into the important 14400-14600 area. We can see nice and clean impulsive recovery from that support area and back to new highs, so bullish trend is back and it's very strong one; a move that can resume even higher after recent consolidation. Ideally that's wave 4 that can be now completed with current sharp and impulsive bounce, so be aware of a continuation higher for wave 5, especially if breaks 16800 bullish confirmation level.
