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#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax xetra - outlook 2025 comment: We look at the chart from the beginning of the current bull trend in 2022-10. Dax has gained 71% while German GDP is now negative for two consecutive years. The bull trend has 3 clear and big legs up. The upper and lower trend lines were respected and we have seen an acceleration upwards in the last leg. This is not the start of a new and stronger one but the climactic ending which traps the weak & late traders. These are the people who started gambling with Bitcoin as it hit 100k because they wanted some of that fairy dust. A healthy correction would be around 20% which is very close to the 50% retracement of this whole trend, the 2023-11 previous ath and the big bull trend line from the Covid lows. More than enough magnets to test down to that price around 16000. How will we get there? Absolutely no idea and all of my drawings with a potential wave series, are just rough guesses how I think it could potentially play out. Sometimes those are accurate and other times they are way off. It’s a good habit of anticipating what markets could do and take the trade if they do it. Final thoughts. Buying the dax above 19000 hoping for a new and stronger trend upwards because surely this time it’s different, is as unwise as can be if you want to invest your money. Meaning buying and holding or trading on a daily/weekly chart. The odds of this breaking above two major trend lines while we already made 70%+ without any meaningful correction, are so slim that the only reason your are doing it is because of FOMO. current market cycle: Bull trend of the past two years has likely ended and new lows below 18780 will be the confirmation. key levels for 2025: 16000 - 20000 (decent chance we will see 20000 only in the first couple of weeks and then only in a couple of months or years again) bull case: 2 years, 70%+. What more can you dream of? No matter how you draw your technicals on the chart, you can only see this as bullish, if you think we can break strongly above the two upper trend lines and go for 25000 or more. That is trading on hope and nothing else. If you have bought any dip the past two years you were never wrong and that is why we have so many articles about “this time it’s different”. In a bull trend, everyone is a genius. I can not come up with any legitimate reason why this should go meaningful above 20600. The absolute best I can do for this section is that we will likely see a lot of sideways price action at the big magnets. 19000 will be the first over the next days/weeks and at this point, we can’t expect the bulls to just give and let the market melt through those prices. BTFD mentality has been profitable and it will take a while or a huge drop, before it ends and we shift to STR (sell the rips). Invalidation is below 14600. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 12000 again. bear case: Peak bullish sentiment and option positions over the past weeks can only go on for so long before the market reverses big time. It’s perhaps because there is literally no one left to buy because everyone and their dog went max long. The chart is clear and the downside risks are much greater than any coke-induced perma-bull argument on why the markets will break higher another 10-20%. Bears short term targets are the weekly 20ema near the small bull trend line around 19000. There we can probably expect more sideways movement before we get another impulse down to the huge support around 17700. My chart is a best guess about price but the timing could be way off. My biggest target for 2025 is the 2011-11 previous ath 16290, which is very close to the 50% retracement of this bull trend. There is also the big bull trend line from the Covid low and I expect this to be tested in Q1 or Q2 2025. Invalidation is above 20700. short term: The year end rally could give us another new ath or lower high. It does not matter because the upside will probably be very limited. My highest price is 20700 give or take. I fully expect 19000 to be hit over the next 2-6 weeks. medium-long term: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None but I think any short ETF, levered or not, is reasonable. Short term is 19000 and medium term (2-5 months) is 17000-18000.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
2
DAX - short term correction currently very Overbought!Hi guys, we are following up with our next opportunity DAX : Currently it has been perfoming fantastic as being part of the biggest Economy in Europe, and it reached a glorious All time High, following up with the western Indices , SP500,NASDAQ100 and Dow Jones. Currently the price has reached a very overbought level based on the RSI check on 1H time frame and 4H time frame, so for the time being I am looking into a short term correction with a follow up to maybe break down the current all time high and get passed it. Entry : 20,400 Target : 19,916 Let's see how things are going to formulate and move from there. As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
XETR:DAXShort
by DG55Capital
4
2024-12-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bears confirmed the sell-off and bears are hoping for a second leg down. I lean to closing tomorrow near 20000 instead of a big second leg down tomorrow but I am open to surprises. Anything above 20150 would surprise me. comment : Bear confirmation and I got 2 measured move targets between 19750 and 19800. Can we get there tomorrow? Possible but not likely I think. We saw decent buying above 19900 and I think it’s more reasonable to expect a close of the week around 19950 - 20000. If bear gap from 20100 - 20200 stay open for the whole 100 points, it would show great bear strength and we could expect a bigger second leg down. Base case for me tomorrow is chop from hell. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19800 - 20200 bull case: Bulls tried multiple times and market still closed the US session at the lows. Best bulls can hope for tomorrow is to prevent the second leg down and stay above 19900. Invalidation is below 19900. bear case: Follow-through selling by the bears which is nice. For now I think it’s more reasonable for bears to take profits going into quad witching and that’s probably why we saw a bigger trading range today. Look at the 1h 20ema and if it continues to be resistance. Invalidation is above 20200. short term: Neutral around 20000 and very bearish below 19900. I expect this week to close a bit below 20000 and anything below 19900 would surprise me. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Chop chop. Best trade was probably selling the double top bar 54 (prev high was bar 35).
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
1
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion. Can the selling continue and accelerate? Yes. Can we also see a bigger bounce from 20000? Also yes. Not as easy to trade as you might think because bounces can be big and you have to trade really small. Huge volatility is not the time to swing for the fences. 19802 is the next target for bears (breakout retest) and chances are good that we get there. 20000 is a very important number and that is why the path leading down to 19800 could be choppier than your account is comfortable with. comment : Bull trend is likely over and I will give my bigger outlook on the next weekly update. US session closed it around 20000 and that price is the obvious magnet. 1h close below brings 19800 in play but it’s also possible that we bounce from here. Selling was strong enough that the best bulls can get over the next days is some sideways movement. Don’t short the hole. We have quad witching this week and markets can always do a huge pullback. current market cycle: bull trend is very likely over - expecting more sideways until end of 2024 before the real selling can begin key levels: 19800 - 20400 bull case: Bulls could be running for the exits to secure the profits. It’s hard to tell in quad witching weeks because prices tend to get distorted. In any case the upside will very likely be limited now. Best bulls can hope for tomorrow is sideways around 20000. Any bounce above 20200 would surprise me. Invalidation is below 19800. bear case: Huge day for the bears and they want to accelerate this down to trap many late bulls. 19800 is the breakout retest and their next target. If we drop below, this could get really nasty. 19600 is close to the big bull trend line and other markets have already broken theirs, so it could happen this week. If you still have long positions, I would not hope for a huge year end rally and just get out. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: Neutral around 20000. Bears need follow through down to 19800 and they can get it but always remember, markets can have huge pullbacks and huge volatility comes with big risk, so trade small. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Choppy EU session and it closed near the open. FOMC totally changed the markets and now it comes down to tomorrow’s follow through by the bears. No trade of the day. You could not have known what Jpow says and how markets react. Don’t fool yourself.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-12-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Third consecutive bear bar on the daily chart but the selling is weak. Bears barely push the market down and we are still 200 points above 20000. The bear channel held but chances are decent that it breaks tomorrow and we either go more sideways 20200 - 20400 or test 20500 again. comment: Bears made new lows, which is nice but the pullback is still minor on the daily chart. Anything below 20200 would surprise me and then we could see some acceleration down to 20000. Much more likely is a break of the bear trend line around 20300 and a retest of 20500+ current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20500 bull case: Bulls buying all the dips and it’s probably just a matter of time when the bears give up again. All bear bars below 20300 look weak and bears have tried 6 times now to break below the channel and have failed. Bullish targets for tomorrow are 20300, 20370 and then 20500. Invalidation is below 20200. bear case : Bears are trying but getting nowhere. Best they can hope for tomorrow is sideways between 20200 - 20300. How likely is it that Jpow grows some, tells the markets they are insane and no more rate cuts? Yeah. Invalidation is above 20600. short term: Neutral 20200 - 20300. Bullish above for 20400 or higher. Bearish below 20200 for 20000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the open and then selling at the bear trend line. The move down accelerated at a weird time and price, so I cut my profitable shorts too early. FML.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
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THINKMARKETS:GER40Education
by fxtraderanthony
19
DAX H1 | Bearish downturn to extend further?DAX (GER30) could rise towards an overlap resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 20,321.48 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 20,380.00 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 20,200.37 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxtl;dr dax xetra: Market has printed the most shallow two-legged pullback imaginable and this is as bullish as it gets. Are bulls getting stopped by at least 2 upper trend lines which could continue to be resistance? I highly doubt it. If we get above 20600, there is no reason to not just go to 21000 or higher. I have two potential measured moves above 21000 but until we have a daily close above 20800, there is no reason to look for targets that high. Bears can only begin to dream again with a daily close below 20000. Quote from last week: comment: Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday. comment: Since the market did not go down even the slightest, we can not hold any other thoughts than bullish ones. I won’t do anything other than small scalps on this though. On my chart I have marked the most extreme cases to either direction for the next 3 weeks. I give the bearish one a chance of at max 30% while the bulls are heavily favored to either move higher or at least sideways only. I can’t really imagine reaching 21500+ but that’s the biggest measured move I have calculated. I do think 21k and then sideways is the most reasonable outlook. current market cycle: Bull trend - parabolic rally which is the very end. key levels: 20000 - 21000 bull case: Bulls send a strong message, closing Opex above 20000, so they remain in full control and 21000 has become a possibility for the next 3 weeks. We are still trading near at least 2 upper bull trend lines but since market is not showing big reactions to the downside, we can only expect higher prices. A daily close above 20500 brings 21000 in play. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: The pullback did not manifest at all and even if bears get this down to 20000 next week, I think we find way more buyers then sellers at that price. Bears really have no arguments at all on their side, besides the upper trend lines which are above us but at this point, I doubt they will be much resistance going into the next 3 weeks. Only thing that would make me more neutral would be a really strong bear bar closing below 20000 tomorrow. If bears somehow manage to do that, we could test down to my C target from last week, which is the breakout price around 19670. For now, I won’t look for shorts unless we see a huge volume increase on strong follow through-selling. Invalidation is above 20500. outlook last week: short term: No more bullish outlooks. I want to see big juicy red bars and people posting on x about “buying opportunity of a lifetime” while they double down all the way back to 19000. Neutral until bears come around. No interest in buying anything above 20100 as of now. 20k might be a decent long scalp for a quick bounce. → Last Sunday we traded 20384 and now we are at 20405. Perfect outlook, given I was neutral until bears would come around. They did not and market went nowhere on the week. short term: Given that we are in the most bullish season of the year and bears could not even get the market to drop into Opex, I can not hold any bearish wishful thought anymore and I will only look for small long scalps over the next 3 weeks. Daily close below 20000 would make me reevaluate. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade : None chart update: Added potential measured move higher.
XETR:DAXLong
by priceactiontds
2024-12-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bulls tried 4 times to push above 20450 and failed. Bears did not take advantage and we printed higher lows. As of now it looks like 20400 is the neutral price for tomorrow but I expect a bigger range to both sides before we settle probably somewhere around 20400 again. Any close at the extremes to either side would surprise me. comment: Clear trading range 20300 - 20500 until we strongly break above or below. For tomorrow I think we can do a retest of the ath 20506 and maybe even a breakout below the channel and test 20350 or lower. I do not expect the week to close to at either extreme. 20400 is the 50% of the current range and the biggest magnet for now. Tomorrow is quad witching. So don’t mess up your trading week getting trapped. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20500 bull case: Market is not finding enough buyers above 20450 but bulls are still eager to not let the market make lower lows. Invalidation is below 20300. bear case: Bears are content with selling 20450 and that’s about it. We are far above the daily 20ema and bears have only printed 2 daily doji bars. That’s as weak as it gets. Higher prices are still possible. Only a daily close below 20k would help their case. On the 1h chart one could argue that we had 3 legs up inside the current bull channel and market is free to test lower but where are the consecutive strong bear bars? Bears are weak. Invalidation is above 20520. short term: Mostly neutral but we are making higher lows and higher highs. Expecting a bigger range for tomorrow but any close above 20500 or below 20380 would surprise me. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low sell high inside range or just don’t trade at all. Atrocious day.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
5
DAX Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Amid CPI VolatilityDAX Technical Analysis: The price reversed from their ATH, and now has a bearish momentum as long as trades below 20350 will touch 20220 and then should break 20220 to continue the bearish trend toward 20020 and 19910. Otherwise should break the ATH closing 1h or 4h candles above it to be a bullish area toward 20575 The market will be volatile due to the Result of CPI. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 20350 Resistance Levels: 20460, 20580 Support Levels: 20220, 20020, 19910 Trend Outlook: Bearish Momentum
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by SroshMayi
DAX to breakdown?GER40 - 24h expiry Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes. A higher correction is expected. A break of the recent low at 20259 should result in a further move lower. Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high. We look to Sell a break of 20245 (stop at 20365) Our profit targets will be 19945 and 19845 Resistance: 20396 / 20474 / 20600 Support: 20259 / 20200 / 20119 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
1
DAX Strong probability for a technical pull-back here.DAX (DE40) hit last week our 20000 Target, which we established 2 months ago (October 04, see chart below): That Target was near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Up that started on the week of the October 03 2022 bottom. As you can see, this pattern has topped both previous Bullish Waves on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level and after a pull-back consolidation phase (red Arc), it started the Bearish Legs that bottomed and made Higher Lows on Support 1, which was the previous Resistance level. Having now already hit its 1.618 Fib ext, we expect DAX to pull-back a little and turn sideways as per the pattern, which we will short, targeting 19000 (Support 1). If however we see a 1W MA200 (blue trend-line) hit and immediate rebound and weekly closing above it, we will book our sell profit earlier. Notice also the high symmetry on those Legs, between their 1W CCI fractals. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by TradingShot
GER 40 Trade Log GER40 4H Long Setup Trade Idea: - Long in the 4H FVG post-CPI wick grab, following a potential exhaustion of the ongoing short setup. Confluence: - FVG Zone: Price retraces into the 4H Fair Value Gap, providing a strong discounted entry point. - Liquidity Grab: CPI wick likely cleared liquidity below, setting the stage for a bullish reversal. - Dynamic Support: 4H Kijun aligns with FVG, reinforcing the zone as a high-probability support. Risk-Reward: - Tight stop-loss below the 4H FVG. - Targeting 1:2+ RRR with initial profit-taking at 20,400 and extended targets toward 20,500 . Quick Take: If CPI triggers downside liquidity sweep, this setup offers a clean bullish reversal opportunity. Watch for confirmation before entry!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by Fondera
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 1H Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short position initiated within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) after a confirmed bearish structure and pre-market rejection. - Confluence Factors: - Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price retraces into a bearish FVG for a high-probability short entry. - Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed bearish break supports downside continuation. - Kijun Resistance: 1H Kijun line aligns with the FVG, reinforcing dynamic resistance. - Liquidity Grab: The price action indicates a sweep of liquidity above the FVG, creating strong rejection signals. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): - Stop-loss set just above the FVG zone for tight risk management. - 1:2.35 RRR as per chart, targeting liquidity zones below. - Targets: - TP1 near 20,309 , aligning with intermediate liquidity. - TP2 around 20,250 for a deeper liquidity sweep. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: GER40 shows bearish signals with a weakening broader market sentiment. - Volume Profile: Declining buy-side volume within the FVG zone signals limited bullish interest. - Pre-Market Behavior: Rejection from the FVG aligns with pre-market bearish tendencies, further supporting the setup. Execution Plan: - Short entry within the FVG zone, managing risk with a stop-loss above the FVG. - Strict adherence to the 1:2.35 RRR with partial profit-taking at TP1 and remaining at TP2. - Monitor market conditions and invalidate if price reclaims the FVG or breaks the Kijun level. Extra Note: Keep an eye on macroeconomic triggers that could cause sudden volatility, particularly during the European session. Let me know if further adjustments are needed!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
DAX forming a top?GER40 - 24h expiry Sequence of 7 positive daily performances broken. We are trading at overbought extremes. Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains. Short term MACD has turned negative. A higher correction is expected. Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high. We look to Sell at 20415 (stop at 20535) Our profit targets will be 20115 and 20025 Resistance: 20350 / 20474 / 20600 Support: 20260 / 20200 / 20000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 1H Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) following a clear bearish shift in market structure. - Confluence Factors: - Break of Structure (BOS): Price confirms a bearish break, with a clear Change of Character (ChoCH) reinforcing downside bias. - FVG Rejection: Anticipating rejection within the 1H FVG as price retests this imbalance area, providing an optimal entry point. - Kijun Resistance: Kijun line on the 1H timeframe aligns as a dynamic resistance level, further supporting bearish continuation. - Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2 RRR with a tight stop-loss above the FVG zone. - Target: TP1 near liquidity at 20,306 ; TP2 at deeper liquidity grab around 20,260 . Confluence Factors: - Market Context: Indices showing signs of pullback after extended bullish momentum, with GER40 leading a potential retracement. - Volume Signals: Declining buy-side volume during recent highs, indicating exhaustion and paving the way for downside. - Liquidity Levels: Price action aligns with tapping liquidity from equal highs before driving into lower demand zones. Execution Plan: - Place short entries within the 1H FVG. - Maintain tight risk management with a stop-loss just above the FVG zone. - Reassess trade if price closes above the Kijun or invalidates the bearish structure. Extra Note: Monitor macroeconomic news or EUR-related sentiment for potential catalysts that could impact volatility in GER40. Let me know if you'd like any additional details or adjustments!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Pre-Market Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short position initiated within the pre-market bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), targeting the defined downside liquidity zones. - Confluence Factors: - Pre-Market Gap: Price retraced into the FVG formed during bearish pre-market movement, offering a low-risk, high-reward entry. - Break of Structure (BOS): A confirmed bearish structure break reinforces downside momentum. - Kijun Resistance: 1H and 4H Kijun levels align with the FVG, acting as strong dynamic resistance. - Liquidity Grab: Recent liquidity sweep near the highs sets the stage for further bearish continuation. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): - Stop-loss set just above the FVG to maintain a tight risk. - 1:3.83 RRR as per the defined target zones on the chart. - Targets: - TP1 near 20,267 , aligning with local liquidity. - TP2 at 20,240 , deeper liquidity grab zone for full target execution. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: Pre-market signals and reduced buyer strength suggest increased selling pressure ahead of European market open. - Economic Indicators: Risk-off behavior in broader markets supports bearish bias. - Volume Profile: Weak buyer volume within the FVG zone adds confluence for downside continuation. Execution Plan: - Place short entries within the FVG zone with a stop-loss just above it. - Strictly adhere to the 1:3.83 RRR, with partial profit-taking at TP1 and the remainder at TP2. - Monitor the European open for any shifts in momentum that could invalidate the setup. Extra Note: Stay updated on economic news or key macro triggers that could influence GER40's short-term price action. Let me know if you'd like further refinements!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
2024-12-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Weekly outlook on point. 20506 was the max and we have seen the start of profit taking today. I expect 20200 to be hit tomorrow or Wednesday but it will be a choppy way to get there. We have an ugly head & shoulders on the 30m/1h tf and the measured move goes to around 20200. Close is always close enough. It’s possible that we retest 20500 before another leg down, so don’t short the lows, unless there is a clear and strong break below. dax futures comment: Clear trading range 20300 - 20500 until we strongly break above or below. Bears closed at the lows, which is good for them and fits with my weekly outlook. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20500 bull case: As long as bulls keep it above 20300, they are good. They want to keep the market in a tight trading range near the ath. That’s about it. Got no higher targets for you. 20500 is beyond insane but we can go higher if we see another Santa rally after the pullback. Invalidation is below 20280ish. bear case: Bears want to print lower highs and trap late bulls. If they strongly break below 20300 tomorrow, we could see some acceleration to bigger support. The poor structure between 19700 and 20300 is one giant spike that wants to be filled. For now I take it level by level. 20300 and then see if we can do 20200 and 20000 after. Invalidation is above 20520. short term: No bigger interest in shorting now lows but rather pullbacks, as long as we make lower highs. 20200 is my first target and if we go above 20400 again, I would only short 20500 again or on really strong momentum. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: 20478 was previous resistance and the open was 20480. Shorting it was the trade of the day.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: 20425 is the ath. It’s a parabolic blow-off top at the end of the bull trend. We will likely see a deeper pullback next week. My first targets below are 20000 and then the breakout retest around 19700. We can obviously print another higher high but the upside will probably be very limited next week. I have drawn 3 upper bull trend lines that fit the current structure and no matter how sloppy I draw them, I can’t see this going much further than 20500. Always keep in mind that this is not an exact science, especially when you try to determine tops. We could easily go 21000. At this point it’s just very unlikely compared to a pullback, given the structure and Opex next week. Quote from last week: comment: Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday. comment: 20500-20600 is my max on this. You will not get any bullish outlooks from me anymore. I could be wrong on this for weeks and would not care. The chart shows my preferred path and the only I will be willing to trade. Market will most likely test the daily 20ema this year again. Currently at exactly the breakout point around 19660. There we will see a decisions if bulls can do another retest of the highs into year end or if profit taking and sideways movement will close this year. current market cycle: Bull trend - parabolic rally which is the very end. key levels: 19000 - 20600 bull case: Bulls can keep this going as long as not many start to take profits and bears not doing anything. If the momentum stays on, there is no reason why this could not go up to 20600 or higher. Is this likely after 800 points last week? The first pullback after such a leg up is probably getting bought and a good buying opportunity for many bulls. Until we begin to see a bigger pullback, bulls have all the arguments on their side, no matter how overbought it is. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Just the fact that this is overbought beyond anything ever before, does not help any trader. My preferred path forward is a deeper pullback to at least 19700 but as of now, we have not seen a single daily bear bar for 7 trading days. Anything in this section is dependent on bears actually building bigger selling pressure and breaking below prior lows. We are trading at the top of multiple multi-year or monthly patterns and that should be enough to at least stall the market for now. Best case for the bears would be a quick move down to 20000 on Monday, to open up the possibility of a decent two-legged move down to 19700 or more. At 20k, I expect buyers to step in hard and produce another bounce first. Invalidation is above 20600. outlook last week: short term: Max bullish for 20k. Can we chop some before we get there? Sure but I don’t think bears can get this below 19300 again before we hit 20k. → Last Sunday we traded 19626 and now we are at 20384. 700+ points on the week. short term: No more bullish outlooks. I want to see big juicy red bars and people posting on x about “buying opportunity of a lifetime” while they double down all the way back to 19000. Neutral until bears come around. No interest in buying anything above 20100 as of now. 20k might be a decent long scalp for a quick bounce. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Converged all major upper trend lines around 20400-20600 and added a potential two-legged correction for next week.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
The Coming EU Recession into 2028, Mercedes BENZ $MBG Triple TopThe principal pillar of the European economy is Germany, recognized as its wealthiest nation. A parallel can be drawn to the adage regarding America: when it experiences a minor setback, the global economy often faces significant repercussions. It is often asserted that the essence of "Deutschland" is deeply rooted in its automotive industry, leading to its moniker as "Autoland." German automobiles have consistently been esteemed as the finest globally. In fact, the most thriving economic engine in Europe has been heavily dependent on the automotive sector, and the initiatives aimed at addressing climate change have been likened to the act of vanquishing a vampire—driving a stake through its heart. Volkswagen, the biggest car maker in Europe, is warning that it might have to cut thousands of jobs and close some factories in Germany. This is happening because they are having tough talks with unions about rising costs. The push for climate-friendly cars has really affected how many people want to buy new vehicles, and they are also facing strong competition in the electric car market. The news about job cuts and possible factory shutdowns is causing a big stir around the world. Other car companies like Mercedes Benz, BMW, and Ford are also making cuts and letting employees go. Volkswagen is planning to lay off tens of thousands of workers and is even thinking about closing some factories, which is a big deal. Bosch, the largest auto parts supplier in the world and a major employer in Germany, is also cutting hours and pay for around 10,000 workers. Even Meyer Werft, a shipbuilding company that has been around since the 1800s, recently needed a huge bailout of $423 million to stay out of bankruptcy. The economic strategies implemented by Brussels have significantly weakened the overall economy of the European Union. Germany has remained committed to the traditional Mercantile economic model, maintaining elevated tax rates to curb inflation while producing goods for export to generate profits. In 2023, the automotive sector is projected to represent as much as 17% of Germany's exports. This sector has created over 750,000 jobs. However, German manufacturing has struggled to achieve a full recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, currently reaching only about 90% of its pre-pandemic output.
XETR:MBGShort
by BallaJi