DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 25/07/2023Several scenarios can play out today. We are waiting for more data. Depending on what the market gives us, we see entries for both short and long trades.
DAX Index
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 24/07/2023Several scenarios can play out today. We are waiting for more data. Depending on what the market gives us, we see entries for both short and long trades.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis Higher Timeframe (22/07/2023)In our primary scenario we expect a bit more upside as a wave (5) to finish the higher level wave ((1)). In our secondary scenario, the high might be in and the pullback might have started. For investors, we are in an area to take (partial) profits. Investors do not buy here as the data shows a bearish divergence. Investors should wait for a decent wave ((2)) pullback before buying again. Traders should analyze the lower timeframe. We see opportunities for both short and long trades next week.
Trading week recap for NASDAQ, DOW, DAX & FTSE (22/07/2023)Let's look back at the past trading week and learn from it. What went well? What could be better?
This is an experiment. Educational content to become a good waver. If you like this video, please let me know by commenting. Any suggestions? Please let me know.
DAX holding the MA50 (1d) can push it to a new High.DAX has completed 7 days of consolidation on the MA50 (1d).
This kind of sideways trading on Supports is usually a technical accumulation before a price jump.
There have already been two similar price jumps that formed Higher Highs inside the 8-month Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 16600 (Rising Resistance).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is rebounding on its Falling Support, same as during the previous Higher Lows of the Channel Up (March 17th 2023 and December 16th 2022).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 21/07/2023Several scenarios can play out today. We are waiting for more data. Depending on what the market gives us, we see entries for both short and long trades.
DAX 4hour Golden Cross targeting 16550DAX formed today a Golde Cross on the 4hour time frame for the first time since June 7th.
The last 3 4hour Golden Crosses inside the large Channel Up pattern have been buy signals that targeted a little under Fibonacci 1.236.
The 4hour RSI is also having a consolidation similar to those previous fractals.
Buy now and target 16550.
Previous chart:
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 20/07/2023We are waiting for a clear ABC pullback before going long.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 19/07/2023We discuss two scenarios that could play out today. Depending on the data we get, both a long trade and short trade are possible.
DAX: Supported by the 1D MA50, ready for a slingshot.DAX is on a marginally bullish 1D timeframe (RSI = 56.008, MACD = 24.500, ADX = 26.521), which indicates that there is still significant upside potential to the rebound that started on the July 7th Low. That Low may have been a HL on the long term Channel Up but also a LL on the two month Channel Down. The 1D RSI is also at the top of its Channel Down, so in order for us to buy again, we need to see a breakout over both tops.
If that happens, then there are high probabilities of the move replicating the slingshot of April-May as they both broke out after an Inverse Head and Shoulders was formed. Consequently we will buy that breakout and set a TP = 16,800.
It's worth mentioning that a crossing over the R1 invalidates the potential of a Head and Shoulders (bearish pattern) that may be forming since May 19th.
Prior idea:
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 18/07/2023We discuss three scenarios that could play out today. We reached the area where the wave ((4)) can end. In case of a single correction, we should start to see an upside movement. In case of a double correction, wave ((4)) can retrace deeper. Finally, we also might see no wave ((4)) if the preceding three waves up are part of a larger WXY correction. In that case, a new wave 4 low in the higher degree cannot be excluded.
DAX Breaks Out Of A Downward Channel. Dax is in an impulsive uptrend since October 2022 and it can be trading in 5th wave, but there can be still room for more upside if the current drop from ATH will stay in three waves. For now we have seen some nice bounce, back above 15700 bull/bear level so it appears that bulls are still here, especially now when price also broke through the channel resistance line that can turn into a nice support this week.
So I am expecting further gains for the DAX whiel price is above wave (C) low at 15455.
GH
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 17/07/2023We discuss three scenarios that could play out today. We reached the area where the wave ((4)) can end. In case of a single correction, we should start to see an upside movement. In case of a double correction, wave ((4)) can retrace deeper. Finally, we also might see no wave ((4)) if the preceding three waves up are part of a larger WXY correction. In that case, a new wave 4 low in the higher degree cannot be excluded.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis Higher Timeframe (15/07/2023)In our primary scenario we expect a bit more upside as a wave (5) to finish the higher level wave ((1)). In our secondary scenario, the high might be in and the pullback might have started. For investors, we are in an area to take (partial) profits. Investors do not buy here as the data shows a bearish divergence. Investors should wait for a decent wave ((2)) pullback before buying again. Traders should analyze the lower timeframe. We see opportunities for both short and long trades next week.
If looking for an opportunity, this could be. Just look.I believe this will close up the gap and continue the upward trend. Siemens Energy will fix the problems and the price gap will be closed in the following weeks.
Trading week recap for NASDAQ, DOW, DAX & FTSE (14/07/2023)Let's look back at the past trading week and learn from it. What went well? What could be better?
This is an experiment. Educational content to become a good waver. If you like this video, please let me know by commenting. Any suggestions? Please let me know.
German Index DAX (The Bull is still in control)
View On German Index DAX (14 July 2023)
DAX is in
* Bullish in short term (Intraweek)
* Neutral in Mid term (1 to 3 months)
* Neutral Long term (3 months onward)
We had a great swing back in the DAX in the recent days.
It shows that the market is not ready go lower anytime soon.
We may see a temp pull back right now but I do not think it will last.
15,900 will be a good support region.
Sooner or later, I expect it to go UP higher to retest the high of 16,300 region again.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 14/07/2023We need a bit more data but traders can prepare for a short trade. In case of an impulse, we wait for 5 waves up that end with divergence. Keep in mind that we do not necessarily need the 5 waves up, 3 waves in the form of an ABC is also possible. If we stick with the three waves, a new wave 4 low cannot be excluded.
Addendum to “The Turning Tides”Following our initial publication, we've received some astute feedback that warrants further and more in-depth discussion. A reader correctly noted that the DAX and Euro STOXX 50 differ in their treatment of dividends - a detail we initially glossed over for simplicity's sake. The DAX is a performance index, including dividends, while the Euro STOXX 50 is a price index, excluding dividends. Understandably, it's a distinction that does play a role in their historical performances. It's also worth noting that a more apple-to-apple comparison to the DAX Index future might be the Euro STOXX 50 Index Total Return future (TESX). However, we originally chose the more popular FESX future due to its better liquidity and much longer history (TESX was only launched in 2016). In addition, the availability of Micro future contracts also makes it more retail friendly.
Our primary exploration focused on overarching macroeconomic factors and sectoral shifts, which are pivotal to understanding the relative performance between the indices. However, dividends' contribution to long-term performance is undeniably significant. Therefore, it is prudent to revisit our DAX-to-STOXX50 comparison, this time adjusting for dividends.
For this purpose, we've chosen the SPDR® EURO STOXX 50® ETF (FEZ) as a proxy for a dividend-adjusted STOXX50. The ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, generally correspond to the total return performance of the STOXX50 Index, and it has been around since 2002. One thing to note about FEZ is that it’s USD-denominated; therefore, we need to consider EUR/USD exchange rate move over the years in order to get as close a proxy as possible.
Here's an updated chart of the DAX vs. the dividend and exchange rate adjusted STOXX50 ETF. The revised perspective still affirms DAX's relative outperformance over the past decade, although less pronounced than the FDAX vs FESX futures comparison suggests.
On a closer look at the ratio between the DAX and the dividend-adjusted FEZ, a clear and massive topping pattern emerges, and it has arguably broken the neckline support. In other words, it appears that the DAX is likely going to continue underperforming the STOXX50 on a dividend-adjusted basis. (Due to certain technical limitations on TradingView, the following chart is presented as dividend and exchange rate adjusted FEZ/FDAX but on an inverted scale. Effectively, this means we're still viewing the FDAX/FEZ relationship.)
This finer detail serves as a reminder of the multifaceted complexity within financial markets and the multitude of factors influencing asset performance. It also underscores the invaluable contribution of reader feedback, enabling us to deliver deeper, more nuanced market analyses. We deeply appreciate your active engagement and eagerly anticipate further enriching discussions.
DAX above the 1D MA50, has already started the new rally.DAX broke yesterday above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again after rebounding at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the December 2022 Bullish Megaphone pattern. This is the new technical bullish leg that will aim to form the next Higher High. On a similar way with the previous bottom rebound on March 20, the Low was also priced after the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) broke.
Their RSI patterns are also identical, with the current attempting to test its Lower Highs trend-line before breaking it. The MACD Bullish Cross that was just formed is also in line with the previous two (March 29 and January 03). Every Cross below 0.0 is a long-term buy opportunity.
Our target is just under the Internal Higher Highs trend-line at 16800.
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 13/07/2023We need a bit more data but traders can prepare for a short trade. In case of an impulse, we wait for 5 waves up that end with divergence. Keep in mind that we do not necessarily need the 5 waves up, 3 waves in the form of an ABC is also possible.
DAX Index Rallies after Ending 3 Waves Corrective PullbackShort term Elliott Wave view in DAX suggests the Index ended wave (3) at 16427.42. Wave (4) pullback unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave ((i)) ended at 16069.1 and wave ((ii)) ended at 16184.30. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 15733.12 and wave ((iv)) ended at 15874.90. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 15713.70 which completed wave A.
Rally in wave B ended at 16209.29 with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 15998.67, pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 15920.33 and final leg wave ((c)) ended at 16209.29 which completed wave B. The Index then extended lower in wave C towards 15453.08 which completed wave (4) in higher degree. The Index then turns higher in what looks to be impulsive structure. Up from wave (4), wave i ended at 15755.44 and dips in wave ii ended at 15659.10. Expect the Index to soon end the 5 waves rally from 7.7.2023 as wave (i), then it should pullback in wave (ii) to correct that cycle before it resumes rally. Near term, as far as pivot at 15453.08 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7 or 11 swing for further upside.
