DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 06/06/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we might see some more upside in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. For today, depending on what the market gives us, we see several options to enter a trade.
DAX Index
Elliott Wave View: DAX Pullback in ProgressShort term Elliott Wave View in DAX shows that the Index ended wave (3) at 16333.28. It is now pulling back in wave (4). Internal subdivision of the pullback is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave ((i)) ended at 16179.14 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 16224.32. Index then resumes lower in wave ((iii)) towards 15802.86 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 15872.60. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 15726.5 which completed wave A.
Index then did a corrective wave B rally which unfolded as another zigzag in lesser degree. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 15860.37 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 15726.74. Index then rallied higher in wave ((c)) towards 16079.73. This completed wave B. Index then resumes lower in wave C with internal subdivision as 5 waves. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 15925.22 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 16058.43. Expect Index to extend lower within wave ((iii)), then rally in wave ((iv)) followed by another leg lower in wave ((v)). This should complete wave C and (4). Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave A which comes at 15103.6 – 15476.8. Near term, as far as pivot at 16333.28 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
DAX Critical junction on the 1day MA100.DAX hit today the bottom of the short term Channel Up. This is inside a larger Channel Up pattern that started during last year's market bottom.
As long as it holds, especially the 1day MA100, buy and target 16600 on a +6.34% repetition of the first short term Channel Up rally.
If the price closes under the 1day MA100, sell and target the bottom of the long term Channel Up at 15150.
The 1day RSI, trading inside a Channel Down, gives a clear indication as to when that low may be achieved.
Previous chart:
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 31/05/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we might see some more upside in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. For today, we see an entry for both a long and short trade at the extremes.
DAX Trade break outs only. Neutral at the moment.DAX has turned neutral after the 16340 top and the subsequent test of the MA50 (1d).
As long as those two levels hold, it will remain sideways with no action to take.
The long term pattern is a double Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the price closes over Resistance (1).
2. Sell if the price closes under the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 16750 (top of Channel Up).
2. 15200 (Fibonacci 0.618 level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is trading under the MA trend line, consistent with the previous two bottoms of the Channel Up.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 30/05/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we probably still go up in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. For today, we see an entry for both a long and short trade at the extremes.
FDAX UpdateToday's morning pump was brought to you by the Euros because their market was oversold. PCE numbers came in high but the algos don't care....
I don't expect FDAX to bounce up to the top, GERMANY IS IN AN OFFICIAL RECESSION! I predicted it all year, and it happened yet somehow their market is at ATH which is crazy AF. One of the most absurd things I've ever seen on the stock market.
I'm expecting a gap up Tuesday for a pump and dump but there is absolutely no guarantee, FDAX really needs to head down further
Anyways, recession:
www.cnn.com
DAX: reached the 1D MA50 but can drop more if it breaksDAX has almost hit today the 1D MA50 (last time it had contact was March 29th) and reacted with a rebound. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 45.355, MACD = 76.400, ADX = 25.34&) indicating that this is a first Support level but if we close a 1D candle under it, can drop more until they turn red.
Consequently, as long as the 1D MA50 holds, we will keep our first buy open, targeting the R1 (TP = 16,300). If a 1D candle closes under it, we will buy again on the 1D MA100, which is waiting on S2 and keep it for the long term even though a max technical drawdown extendes as low as -6.60%. Those where the % declines on the previous two corrective legs inside the Channel Up since December.
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DAX Can decline more before finding a bottomDAX had an excellent run since our buy signal two months ago (March 21) but has since formed a top and is pulling back (see chart below):
The price is below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today is testing the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since March 29. The 1D RSI is still neutral around the 50.00 mark, meaning that there is still more room left on this downside. The next technical Support is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is on a significant Support cluster as it is just above the October 01 Higher Lows trend-line.
We expect a bottom to be made at 15500, it offers a solid R/R ration for buying and that is what we will go, targeting 16300 and the previous High, which was the first target of the late March rebound.
An addition signal to help with taking the best buy entry possible, can be the 1D RSI. A Double Bottom at least (especially as close to the 37.80 Support as possible) would be ideal.
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DAX primary trend still remains positive.GER40 - 24h expiry
Daily signals are bullish.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Short-term momentum is bearish.
A lower correction is expected.
The 1-day moving average should provide support at 15980.
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
We look to Buy at 15981 (stop at 15896)
Our profit targets will be 16191 and 16241
Resistance: 16090 / 16150 / 16230
Support: 16059 / 16000 / 15930
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX to find sellers at market?GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A higher correction is expected.
A break of the recent low at 16190 should result in a further move lower.
We look to Sell a break of 16188 (stop at 16268)
Our profit targets will be 15988 and 15948
Resistance: 16270 / 16333 / 16400
Support: 16190 / 16140 / 16000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.