Get started

DAY

USDJPY LONG OPPORTUNITYTHIS PAIR IS SHOWING STRONG DIVERGENCE BUT I'M CHOOSING TO IGNORE IT FOR NOW AND FOCUS ON THE STRUCTURE. ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS PUT ME IN EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER MOVE UPWARD. MY PRIMARY FOCUS IS THE BROWN CHANNEL OF WHICH I'M AWAITING A CONFIRMATION OF A MOVE TO TOUCH MY LOWER CHANNEL AND POSSIBLE A CANDLE THAT WICK CLIMAX AT MY LOWER BROWN CHANNEL AND CLOSE ABOVE MY BLUE CHANNEL.WITH THIS SET-UP I'M LOOKING FOR TARGETS: 1ST 109.33, 2ND 109.54 (WHICH I'M MORE IN FAVOR OF). iF PRICE CLOSE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW MY LOWER BROWN AND BLUE CHANNEL, THEN IT PUTS ME IN PLAY FOR A SMALL CYPHER THAT IS SETTING UP. 108.72 ENTRY WITH TARGET AT 109.33. IF PRICE PROCEEDS FURTHER LOWER THEN THIS SETUP IS NO LONGER VALID.
Long
by DayFarrell
1
NZDUSD DAILY CYPHER i've been following this pair on the hourly time frame for some time now, and notice some inconsistencies occurring, so i went to the higher time frame and saw this setup. currently the price is trading at a strong support level(support because i'm viewing the overall structure bullish trend) so if price break past this level, i'm looking for a reversal at the 61.8% of my current structure. Patterns? patterns are just a face that represents something that is within the chart that is not usually identifiable by the average trader. I believe that a trader must learn how to identify what is within the chart first, before learning to identify a pattern. Patterns should be learnt after as an easy way of spotting what is within the chart that is actually saying there will be a reversal. What is inside the chart that one should be able to identify before a pattern? Ans: support and resistance that varies based on their strength.Using this cypher as example: An A leg can be formed by a support that's not so strong, however it is identified as the wave 3 (Elliott wave) that's a subwave within the wave 5 which went on to form the C leg of the pattern. The B leg is usually formed by a very strong support.. It is usually a Phi level which works more harmonic when the 61.8 is the retracement since this Phi correlates with the 1.27% extension (which is perfect for our C leg. math time now. If 61.8 correlates with 1.27, and 38.2 goes with 1.618, what does 50% correlates with? Ans: 1.272- .618 = .654, just as .654 + .50 = 1.154.(which is very close to our A-C which is 1.142). but lets not work with very close. lets calculate why it's 1.142 and not 1.154 we establish that the higher the retracement, the lower the extension, so therefore, our B leg is 0.516. .016 more than 50%. Next: .016 x .618 = .01. 1.154 -.01 =1.144 (which is practically our A-C. Our C leg is a combination of Phi and strong resistance, and also a 5th wave. to get to our D leg we must past B since it's our strongest support so far, {which is why one can trade from C-B in a pattern). Psychology now plays an important role in clearing our B point. Traders will realize that we just topped out at a 5th wave and will look for a 61.8 retracement. therefore, getting past B will be easier than before. One of the hardest task is identifying D. Conventionally persons will automatically assign a 78.6 for the D leg, but it should be assigned based on strong, Support (now resistance when bearish). in this case, there is a strong support at the 78.6. We also have some strong support at the 61.8 which we will not take for granted, but we put priority over a more recent support. Hope it's clear enough to understand. next is to use whatever indicators you usually use to know when to enter. With the interest rate decision pending, there should be some volatility very soon on this pair. A trade like this is worth losing, we trade worst and accept a loss, this is worth the shot. Most likely the rates will be unchanged, it's usually the statement that has the bearing due to the RBNZ (government involvement) policies.
Long
by DayFarrell
GBPUSD GAINS NOT OVER, DON'T PULL OUT !this morning i posted a trade on this pair stating that we are looking for targets at the 1.618. however we are seeing a slight pull back that may scare a few folks into pulling out too early. this morning i mentioned a bit about pattterns always completing, so i'll show you what i mean and why you should stay in till target. look where i placed the black arrow. Measure from the top to bottom of that small move (red trend line, and place it at the high of the current pull back and see it lines up perfectly at the 1.618. this little move never had it's pair and it's now being completed.
Short
by DayFarrell
1
GBPUSD 100+PIPS IS FLIRTING This is one of those trades that most persons will love, the type that jump out at you. Price moved last night from the previous high 61.8 retracement and fell exactly to the 1.27 extension. then we are now having a pull back. Measure AB=CD and you will find that price lines up exactly at the 1.618 extension. know this about AB=CD, they always complete, i don't care If persons tell you that's not true, take my word for it and look at my trades for proof, they always complete. 61.8= 1.27 and 38.2 =1.618, so we expect a pull back to the 38.2% of the current low before the AB=CD is completed. As usual, i'd wait for a confirmation, why, because they were AB structures before this one thats pending completion, so i'd wait for confirmation before entering. What i mean by AB structure? Whenever a pattern is pending completion, it usually will find its completion in the 3, 5, or 7th wave. PLEASE NOTE!! WHEN AN AB IS PENDING COMPLETION IT DOES NOT MEAN THE PAIR IS GOING TO RETRACE FURTHER, RATHER IT MEANS THE RETRACEMENT WILL BE SHORTER. SO IN OTHER WORDS, DON'T BE SURPRISE IF YOU SEE A TURN AROUND AT 23.6. THE REASON I HAVE A BIAS TOWARDS THE PRICE GOING TO 38.2, IS SIMPLE THIS, AB=CD, JUST AS BC=a (BC) IN THE FUTURE WHICH WILL ALWAYS PRESENTS ITSELF IN THE FUTURE AT THE 3, 5, OR 7 WAVE. OK I'VE SAID TOO MUCH. DIVERGENCE IS ON THIS PAIR AND BIASED TOWARDS THE UPSIDE, BUT DIVERGENCE IS NOT THE SHERIFF IN THIS TOWN NOW, SO WE CAN'T BASE OUR DECISION SOLELY ON IT, IT'S OUTGUNNED. HAVE A GREAT DAY, WISH YOU MUCH SUCCESS. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT I JUST EXPLAINED FEEL FREE TO ASK.
Short
by DayFarrell
USDCAD (TESTING STRATEGY)I tested some aspects of this strategy on the NZDUSD pair, and it went really well. i'm now testing it out on another pair to see if it's a pair specific strategy or overall. Even though i consider this trade a strategy test, or any other test, the first move is always something that is most probable above all others, i would trade this first move, but i'd wait for candle confirmation. Since it's the weekend i'm pretty sure price will not be consistent with Friday's close, therefore i'd determine based on where the price starts and try to get in on a smaller wave outline in yellow with my stops the same place. the overall success on this move still depends on whether the price goes up or down, but i have a downward bias, but i still see signs of up. i chose down because of another EMA strategy i'm testing within this trade also, i use a 76 High {High when the price is trending down, and Low when the price is trending up} EMA to determine when price is overbought or oversold. If price pierce my EMA i usually start looking for a move lower. this rule cannot be applied on an overall pair, because there are moments when price trends sideways, and during such time EMA 76 fluctuate between LOW and HIGH, it has to be used on a clear trend. The price is going through a trend change so i'm trading on bears. I use a few types of EMA, i use regular fibonacci EMA's, and Percentile Fibonacci EMA, (i will explain some other time). the 76 is a combination of all. a simple explanation of my set-up: red horizontal lines are ranges and some can be targets, the blue horizontal lines are possible reversal points,(which are only associated with the first move) red trend lines are price action and the yellow trend lines represent price action also. I HAVE NOT DRAWN THE TRENDING WITH REGARDS FOR TIME ONLY PRICE. though it can be done, its not necessary. i use the 4 hour chart because this pair don't really have a large price range. Economically this is not the best week for this pair, which i think is better for my expectation. I WILL POST A FEW TRADES LATER THIS EVENING, i had a bad GBPUSD trade and i'm reviewing what i did wrong. I call it bad not because of money lost, but usually i can always predict price action whether bulls or bears on a first move, but it went against my plan. Some will say accept loss and move on because it's apart of the business, which i accept, but i'm not going to make a prediction which went wrong and not recheck to see where my analysis was premature. HAVE A GREAT AND SUCCESSFUL WEEK!!! TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK, I'D APPRECIATE IT, PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT :)
Short
by DayFarrell
5
Bitcoin 50, 100-Day SMA, Keltner Channels Point to Lower PriceBitcoin is in process of moving lower. You can see this pretty clearly and simply by looking at the 50 Day SMA, 100 Day SMA and Keltner Channels. Essentially this is an action-reaction process. Looking at the March-April time period the Bitcoin price fell below the Keltner Channels (most or all of one candle body) for 17 days. During May and June the Bitcoin price rose above the Keltner Channels for 20 days. Bitcoin price now has fallen below Keltner Channels. If similar to past two instances where price rose above or fell below Keltner Channels, then Bitcoin will stay below channels for 17-20 days. Price fell below on 7-27-14 so price could stay below Keltner Channels until 8-15-14 or so. At this point, would not worry too much about up and down price swings. In other words, don't get sucked into buying just because of a $50-60 price swing. Wait for move lower to play out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TerryKinder
10
Short until I'm long againSo we've just touched the 1 day 100 Moving Average on all exchanges. Traditionally it could be a place where we do the hokey cokey for a bit, but given the circumstances with RSI being very high and the OBV OSC divergence we've seen for the last 3 legs up here - I believe it's time for a retracement. We are currently in the 1 day cloud and have come close to touching the top just before the 1 day 100MA got in the way. I don't believe we will breach this area in the next 5-7 days but we will retrace. Looking at bottom targets, the 50% retrace is at 476.73, which also happens to be price of the first launch point from the bull 1st flag of this phase and has a target of 633.32. This also will likely coincide with support from the bottom of the cloud and also the 9/41 day MA's.
BShort
by SunnyBOT0
2
A correction is due whether it's a Secular Bear or notThe chart shows the Dow Index and its 50-day Moving Average since 1915. I have encased the Secular Bears that occurred in the period in amber boxes and used purple boxes to highlight corrections that have happened when the share price moved sharply above the Moving Average. Perhaps the recent Secular Bear ended in 2008 and we are now in a Secular Bull Market. Even so, history shows that, when the share price moves sharply out of line with the 50-day Moving Average, a significant correction is due. This correction will, no doubt, happen before the end of 2014. Analysts disagree as to whether we are still in the Secular Bear (i.e., a long-term bear market) that commenced in 1999/ 2000, or whether we have emerged from the Bear Market into a Secular Bull. My argument is that, whichever view applies, since share prices have risen sharply above the 50-day Moving Average, a severe correction is due before the end of 2014. The Stock Traders' Almanac predicts that the Dow Jones will fall to $12,000 (from its present c. $16,500) this year. It will then recover to $18,000 by the end of 2015, but fall back to $10,000 by the end of 2018, before the next Secular Bull will start, which will see the markets rising continuously for 15 years.
DJ:DJI
by KrunchieKilleen
Fairchild Semiconductor caught in a pinchFCS has been pinching since July 2011. Though I wouldn't recommend any day trading, I'll be interested to see if it can break out of the trend and bring back the bull. Please excuse the poor zoom. - - - - - All opinions expressed by Emuffn3 on this website are solely Emuffn3’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of TradingView, or their affiliates. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Emuffn3 as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Emuffn3’s opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither TradingView nor its affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Emuffn3 is not under any obligation to update or correct any information provided on this website. Emuffn3’s statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Emuffn3 nor TradingView guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than invested. Investments or strategies mentioned on this website not be suitable for you. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned. Before acting on information on this website, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser. Cheers!~ & Happy Trading!
F
by Emuffn3