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Stock Market Logic Series #4The Puppet Master in his best work. Once you see him, you can't unsee him. Whether you are a day trader or a stock investor, you should know where the bigger player that plays the stock intends to buy or sell the stock. If he intends to buy the stock, the stock will eventually go UP. If he intends to sell the stock, the stock will eventually go DOWN. You should always have in mind the following perspective: The bigger player AKA the Puppet Master, has unlimited amounts of money. He controls the market. If you view the market in this way, you will get the insight that if you think of yourself as having unlimited money to use, what would you do??? - You should make an experiment in TradingView Demo, and play as if you have unlimited money. You will get a lot of insight to the mind of the puppet master, just from this experience only. - You would try to buy out, all the other players and seduce them to sell the stock to you. - You buy out other people, by increasing the price up by pressing on the ASK, so people will take small profits. - You would try to shake out, using fear, to make other players sell the stock to you. - You shake people out by stopping buying on the ASK, and only willing to buy what other people willing to sell, you have time, you know you at any time can move the stock up, no matter how hard it went down. You move the stock up at any time by pressing hard on the ASK buy button. - Having unlimited money does not create stocks, it has to come from someone else. You need volume, so you could buy stock from weak players. As stated you have your ways of doing the above. -There is no selling and buying simultaneously, you have your campaign of buying and then of selling. Never do both at the same time. You thinking big, making serious money from the markup and the markdown of the stock. Once you understand this perspective, by looking at the volume, you can have a very good guess of what the bigger player or Puppet Master is doing. You see where he creates volume and where he has no volume, so he needs to respond (by buying aggressively on the ASK, and pushing the stock up). Chart is also self-explanatory Follow for more Stock market logic, volume analysis, chart patterns :)
NYSE:AIEducation
by ZoharCho
1
USD/JPY Pair Poised for Bullish Momentum, Targeting 142.000Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair experienced a decline to around 139.00 but has since shown signs of recovery. Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates further in order to combat persistent inflation in the United States. As a result, there is optimism that the asset will surpass the significant resistance level of 140.00. Interestingly, despite discussions surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's consideration of moving away from an ultra-dovish interest rate policy, the Japanese Yen has not gained strength. According to Bloomberg, experts monitoring the BoJ anticipate no policy adjustments in June, as Governor Ueda consistently supports the need for monetary stimulus to maintain inflation above the 2% target. In light of these factors, our outlook suggests a new bullish momentum with a target of 142.000.
Long
by FOREXN1
18
AUD/USD Pair Climbs to One-Month High, Faces Consolidation AheadOn Tuesday, the AUD/USD pair reached its highest level in a month at 0.6807 following the release of US economic data. However, it later retreated, reducing its daily gains. The Australian dollar struggled to stay above 0.6800. Although the upward trend remains intact after rising in eight of the last nine trading days, it appears that some consolidation or correction is overdue. The latest data revealed that the Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence increased by 0.2% in June, in line with expectations. On the other hand, the National Australia Bank reported a larger-than-expected decline in the Business Conditions Index from 15 to 8 in May, along with a drop in the Confidence Index from 0 to -4. The most significant economic report of the week, which includes employment numbers, is scheduled for release on Thursday. It is expected to show a positive change of 15,000. The decision by the People's Bank of China to ease short-term policy rates contributed to the positive sentiment towards the Australian dollar. This move by Chinese policymakers could potentially lead to further rate cuts. Specifically, on Tuesday, the 7-day reverse repo rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.9%. However, the impact on commodities and Chinese equities remained limited. In the US, data indicated that consumer inflation eased in May, with the Consumer Price Index rising by 0.1% and the annual rate at 4.0%, the lowest reading since March 2021. These figures reinforced the Federal Reserve's decision to pause. On Wednesday, the FOMC will release new economic projections, and Chair Powell is expected to provide a message that might signal the possibility of more rate hikes despite recent numbers. Additionally, the US May Producer Price Index is due before the FOMC statement. The US dollar and risk sentiment will continue to be the key drivers in the next few hours. Market participants will closely analyze the inflation figures from the US ahead of the FOMC statement. If a positive tone prevails in equity markets during the Asian session and commodity prices continue to rise, the Australian dollar could strengthen. The performance of the AUD/USD pair after the FOMC statement will be crucial in determining its trajectory, particularly in the 0.6800 area. From a technical standpoint, we anticipate a potential reaction and drop to the 38.2% or 50% Fibonacci level from the previous swing low before resuming growth.
by FOREXN1
5
GOLD Consolidates Within Range, Rejection at $1,970 - 61.8% FIBOGold is currently experiencing a period of consolidation, trading within a specific range. However, it faced a notable rejection near the $1,970 price level, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This Fibonacci level is a significant technical indicator that traders often monitor for potential reversals or strong resistance. During this consolidation phase, the price of gold has been unable to sustain a breakthrough above the $1,970 level, suggesting selling pressure or a lack of bullish momentum in the market. As a result, the precious metal remains within its current range, potentially awaiting further market catalysts or a decisive move in either direction. The modest rise in US government bond yields has prompted some buying interest in the US Dollar (USD) on the final day of the week, allowing it to recover from its overnight decline, which was the lowest since May 24. This has become a hindrance for gold, priced in USD, as a stronger dollar tends to suppress its value. However, the impact is being somewhat mitigated by the prevailing risk-averse sentiment, which favors safe-haven assets like gold. Concerns about a potential global economic downturn persist, fueled by disappointing Chinese inflation data released earlier today. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% contraction in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced its sharpest decline since February 2016, dropping 4.6% YoY. These figures underscore the slower post-COVID recovery in the world's second-largest economy, reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Gold is also receiving support from expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will refrain from raising interest rates at its upcoming June 13-14 meeting. This sentiment has curbed the bullish momentum of the USD and has provided a tailwind for gold, which does not offer a yield. In fact, market participants have fully priced in a temporary halt to the Fed's rate hike cycle. This belief was reinforced by last week's US data, revealing a surge in Initial Jobless Claims to a 20-month high. Attention turns to next week's crucial FOMC meeting Nevertheless, futures tied to Fed funds suggest the possibility of a 25 basis point rate increase at the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As a result, traders are cautious about taking aggressive bullish positions on gold, particularly in the absence of significant economic data that could sway the market. Investors are likely to stay on the sidelines, awaiting the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and the outcome of the FOMC meeting next week.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
26
EUR/USD Surges Amid Soft US Employment DataThe EUR/USD faced downward pressure, remaining below the 1.0800 level. However, it experienced a notable upswing on Thursday, delivering its strongest performance in weeks, primarily driven by a weakened US Dollar. The Greenback faltered across the board as softer employment data from the US emerged ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. This favorable outlook suggests the potential for further gains in the near term. Despite downward revisions in Euro area Q1 GDP, the Euro remained unaffected. The growth rate was adjusted from 0.1% QoQ to -0.1% QoQ. Growth varied across countries, with Italy and Spain displaying a 0.5% expansion, France at 0.2%, and Germany experiencing a contraction of 0.3%. These figures did not significantly alter expectations for the upcoming European Central Bank meeting. Market pricing already accounts for a 25 basis points rate hike. However, the updated macroeconomic forecasts may carry more significance. Thursday's rally in EUR/USD was propelled by a combination of factors, including a weakened US Dollar, increased risk appetite, and technical considerations. In the US, Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly rose to their highest level since October 2021. These figures further tempered expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. However, the crucial report to watch will be the release of the May Consumer Price Index next Tuesday, just a day before the FOMC decision. Interestingly, Wall Street responded positively to the negative employment numbers, boosting risk appetite and exerting additional downward pressure on the US Dollar. As we approach Friday, the highlight on the economic calendar will be a speech from ECB's Guindos. Currently, the US Dollar appears weak in the lead-up to the Asian session, potentially extending its losses after some consolidation. However, it's worth noting that a shift in market sentiment could limit the upside potential and potentially favor a sharp correction. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is now approaching a series of resistance levels, particularly around the 1.0800 mark, where a reversal may occur. Based on this analysis, our recommendation is to consider a short setup.
by FOREXN1
20
AUD/USD: Approaches 0.6700 as USD Index extends downsideThe AUD/USD pair remains in a downward trend as the price continues to rise. Although the AUD/USD climbed to its highest level in almost four weeks, surpassing 0.6700, it later dropped to 0.6650 due to the stronger US dollar overpowering the initial boost from the hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia. The pair's upward momentum stalled after a four-day consecutive rise, facing challenges from a resilient US dollar and market concerns about the global economic outlook. In a recent statement, RBA Governor Lowe emphasized that while preserving gains in the labor market is important, the board will not tolerate persistently high inflation. This hawkish stance has led to speculation in the interest rate market of another rate hike at the July meeting, which was previously not anticipated. First-quarter data from Australia showed lower-than-expected growth of 0.2% QoQ, compared to the market consensus of 0.3%. The annual growth rate also slowed to 2.3%, the slowest since Q1 2021. Despite this data and the gloomy global outlook, the RBA made it clear that its primary focus is to control inflation, which is still below the target. Trade data for Australia is scheduled to be released on Thursday. Although China reported weak trade data for May, with a 7.5% drop in exports (higher than the expected 1.8% decline) and a 4.5% decrease in imports (less than the anticipated 8.0% decrease), the AUD/USD still managed to climb above 0.6700 during the European session. However, the pair corrected its course due to a stronger US dollar during the American session, supported by higher US yields. The likelihood of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting has slightly increased, and investors are reducing their expectations of rate cuts by the end of the year. Attention is now focused on the upcoming US Jobless Claims data on Thursday, as well as the Consumer Price Index and the FOMC meeting scheduled for next week.
Long
by FOREXN1
17
EUR/USD Gains Momentum, Approaching Last Week's HighUnexpectedly, jobless claims in the United States have experienced a sharp increase, reaching the highest level since October 2021. This development has had a negative impact on the US Dollar, causing it to weaken across the board. The DXY, a measure of the dollar's strength against a basket of other major currencies, has dropped below 103.50 as a result. EUR/USD Approaches Previous Week's High In response to the US employment data, the EUR/USD currency pair has gained momentum and is steadily approaching the high reached last week, nearing the 1.0800 mark. The pair's upward movement has been fueled by the broad decline of the US Dollar. US Employment Data Sparks Euro Strength Following the release of the US employment data, the EUR/USD pair has experienced a surge in upward momentum. Currently trading at 1.0770/75, it has reached its highest level since the previous Friday. The weakening of the US Dollar against other currencies has provided support for the euro's rise. Dollar Suffers from Negative News The latest weekly report from the Labor Department revealed a significant jump in initial jobless claims to 261K for the week ending June 3. This figure surpassed market expectations of 235K and represents the highest level since October 2021. Consequently, the US Dollar has weakened further, dropping to new daily lows against most major currencies, while US yields have also declined. The DXY has tumbled, testing weekly lows below 103.40. Impact on Federal Reserve Rate Hike Expectations These employment figures have dampened expectations of a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week. With the FOMC's decision set to be announced on Wednesday, the consensus among analysts is that the Fed will maintain interest rates at their current level. Eurozone Economy Contracts, ECB Rate Hike Expected In separate news, data from Eurostat revealed that the Eurozone economy contracted by 0.1% in the first quarter, revised from an earlier estimate of 0.0%. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still expected to announce a rate hike next Thursday, despite the weak activity figures. ECB President Lagarde and other members of the Governing Council have emphasized that inflation remains elevated, reinforcing the case for a rate increase. EUR/USD Breaks Away from 1.0700 Level The EUR/USD pair has struggled to consistently move away from the 1.0700 level in recent days. However, on Thursday, it appears to be breaking out to the upside, driven by the strong momentum of the euro. The pair is now approaching the highs reached last week around 1.0780, and if it surpasses that level, attention will shift to 1.0800/05.
by FOREXN1
13
EUR/USD: Persistent Bearish Channel with Potential ReversalThe EUR/USD currency pair continues to be confined within a prevailing Bearish channel, indicating a downward trend. Although there has been an increase in trading volume over the past two days, the main trend remains downward. Within the channel, a Shark pattern has been identified, suggesting a potential reversal in the near future. Additionally, the current price is approaching the critical 61.8% Fibonacci level, which often serves as a significant point for reversals. Considering these factors, we are actively seeking a short setup for this pair.
Short
by DAY_PROFITS
12
GOLD Price Continues to Drop, Investors Remain Cautious.Gold remains within a bearish channel, and the price is expected to continue dropping after a rebound at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Our target for the price is around $1928.000. The fundamental analysis of gold indicates that it attempted a recovery after reaching near $1,940.00. It has extended its rebound to around $1,950.00, mainly due to a sharp drop in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The fluctuating nature of the USD Index has made investors cautious, and the absence of significant catalysts this week has limited its movement. S&P500 futures have fully recovered from their previous losses and turned positive, indicating a recovery in market participants' risk appetite. It seems that investors have started dismissing concerns related to potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Although the USD Index has found intermediate support around 103.80, its situation appears vulnerable as market sentiment has become optimistic. Despite the short-term correction, the USD Index is expected to remain strong as the Fed is likely to maintain a hawkish stance. Furthermore, a survey by Reuters suggests that significant weakening of the currency would require rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Additionally, the Fed is expected to pause in June for the first time in over a year and maintain its key interest rate at 5.00%-5.25% for the remainder of the year.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
12
AUD/USD's Sharp Recovery Despite Consolidation BreakdownThe AUD/USD is currently experiencing bullish momentum, and we are looking to capitalize on the next upward movement using a trend-following setup. However, in terms of fundamental analysis, the AUD/USD pair is facing difficulties in sustaining its current rally above 0.6680. This rally was initially sparked by the unexpected announcement of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). RBA Governor Philip Lowe raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%, despite the fact that Australian inflation levels are significantly below the desired target. As a result, the policy divergence between the RBA and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has narrowed. The S&P500 futures are exhibiting a subdued performance, lacking any significant triggers. The overall market sentiment is cautious as investors hold differing opinions regarding the June monetary policy meeting by the Fed. After a decline driven by weaker-than-expected United States ISM Services PMI data, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has found some support around 103.80. Interestingly, the AUD/USD witnessed a strong recovery despite breaking down from its consolidation range of 0.6563-0.6808 on a daily basis. The lack of sustained selling pressure on the Australian dollar following the consolidation breakdown contributed to this notable rebound.
Long
by FOREXN1
25
GBP/AUD:AU GDP Growth Slows in Q1, Capital Expenditure Picks UpThe Australian AiG Construction Index for May registered a reading of -6.6, showing a slight improvement compared to the April figure of -12.4. Additionally, the AiG Manufacturing Index came in at -5.1, while the AiG Industry Index recorded -10.9. Comparatively, in April, the AiG Manufacturing Index was reported at -20.2, and the AiG Industry Index at -20.1. Turning to the Australian GDP for the first quarter, the growth rate stood at 0.2% on a quarterly basis and 2.3% on an annualized basis. Economists had anticipated a slightly higher increase of 0.3% and 2.4% respectively. In comparison, the GDP for the fourth quarter of the previous year had experienced a quarterly growth of 0.6% and an annualized growth of 2.6%. Furthermore, Capital Expenditure for the first quarter showed a quarterly increase of 1.8%, the Chain Price Index rose by 1.8% on a quarterly basis, and Final Consumption expanded by 0.2% quarterly. The economist's forecasts were for a decline of 5.6% in Capital Expenditure, a rise of 4.3% in the Chain Price Index, and an increase of 1.4% in Final Consumption. By comparison, during the fourth quarter, Capital Expenditure had decreased by 1.4% on a quarterly basis, the Chain Price Index had risen by 0.6% quarterly, and Final Consumption had expanded by 0.4% quarterly. Moving to China, the Trade Balance for May amounted to $65.81B, significantly below the economist's prediction of $92.00B. In April, the Trade Balance had recorded $90.21B. Exports for May experienced an annualized decline of 7.5%, while imports saw a decrease of 4.5%. These figures differed from the economist's forecast of a 0.4% decrease in exports and an 8.0% decrease in imports. Comparatively, in April, exports had surged by 8.5% annually, while imports had dropped by 7.9% annually. In the UK, the Halifax House Price Index for May remained flat with no change at 0.0% on a monthly basis and exhibited a decrease of 1.0% on a tri-monthly annualized basis. This reading aligned with economists' predictions of a flat monthly reading and a slightly smaller decrease of 0.9% on a tri-monthly annualized basis. Looking back to April, the Halifax House Price Index had contracted by 0.4% monthly and experienced a slight tri-monthly annualized increase of 0.1%.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD Slips Below 1.0700 as US Dollar Gains GroundEUR/USD slipped below the 1.0700 level during the early European morning, driven down by a strengthening US Dollar and a lackluster risk sentiment. The pair faced additional pressure from mixed German Industrial Production data. Market focus now turns to ECB-related announcements. Yesterday, the price broke the dynamic trendline of the bullish channel, invalidating the potential bullish impulse from the ABCD pattern and causing a renewed decline in bearish momentum. The next target to watch for is around the 1.06450 area and 1.06100. From a fundamental perspective, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with the possibility of another hike in July. While the June hike is already priced in, future decisions will depend on data outcomes. Recent economic figures reveal that retail sales in the Eurozone stalled in April, showing consumer caution with a 2.6% decline compared to the previous year. Additionally, Germany reported a weakening in April factory orders, down 0.4% month-on-month. The ECB's monthly survey indicated a decline in inflation expectations to 4.1% in April. On Wednesday, German industrial production data will be released. On Tuesday, the US Dollar experienced modest gains against other currencies as Wall Street saw a slight increase. Traders remain cautious ahead of a significant week, marked by a gloomy global outlook and expectations of higher interest rates. The Federal Reserve is currently in a media blackout period leading up to the next FOMC meeting. Analysts warn that the upcoming May Consumer Price Index, to be released next Tuesday, will play a crucial role in determining the outcome.
Short
by FOREXN1
18