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GOLD:Pressure Mounts with Expected Interest Rate Hike - SHORTIn the early European session, the price of Gold found temporary support around $1,943.00. Although there has been a short-term decline in the value of this precious metal, further losses are expected as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to raise interest rates to address persistent inflation in the United States. S&P500 futures have recovered some of the losses experienced in the Asian session, suggesting an improvement in market participants' risk appetite. Despite the release of better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday, US equities continued their bullish trend. Following a strong rally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading sideways around 104.00. This indicates that the index is consolidating before potentially moving higher. The likelihood of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve has also boosted US Treasury yields. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen significantly above 3.74%. After the seventh consecutive contraction in US factory activity, investor attention is shifting towards the upcoming release of the US ISM Services PMI data. While the US Manufacturing PMI has struggled to surpass the 50.0 threshold for the past seven months, the Services PMI has been performing relatively better. The preliminary report suggests a decline in the US Services PMI to 51.5 compared to the previous release of 51.9. However, the New Orders Index, which reflects future demand, is expected to improve to 56.5 from the previous release of 56.1. Considering our technical analysis, which indicates a bearish channel for gold, we are currently seeking a short setup with a target of $ 1,920.00
PHILLIPNOVA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
25
NZD/USD Vulnerable to Bearish Pressure: A Closer LookThe NZD/USD pair initially reached a five-day high at 0.6111 before declining to around 0.6065. This movement was driven by strong labor market data from the US, which indicated robust employment growth and potentially prompted a reevaluation of additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). As a result, the US Dollar gained traction, supported by increasing US bond yields. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employment in the United States exceeded expectations, with a 339k increase in May compared to the consensus forecast of 190k. However, the Unemployment Rate slightly rose to 3.7% instead of the expected 3.5%. Average Hourly Earnings, which serve as an indicator of wage inflation, registered a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, slightly below the projected 4.4%. While labor demand shows signs of deceleration, the strong employment growth and mounting inflationary pressures make a case for the Fed to reconsider a 25 basis points (bps) hike in their upcoming June meeting. Consequently, US bond yields have been trending upward, with the 10-year yield rising to 3.68%, a daily gain of 2.70%. Similarly, the 2-year yield stands at 4.51%, marking a 3.64% increase, and the 5-year yield is at 3.84%, up by 3.81%. The Federal Reserve's ultimate objective is to achieve full employment and price stability. Therefore, the release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) next week will be crucial in shaping the expectations and considerations of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding future interest rate decisions. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that markets are still assigning higher probabilities to no rate hike in the upcoming June 13-14 meeting, but the possibility of a 25 bps hike has gained some relevance. When examining the price action using technical analysis, it becomes evident that there was a notable retracement occurring at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which coincided with the previous resistance level. This confluence of factors indicates a significant area of interest for traders. Presently, our focus lies in identifying a new bearish setup, aligning with the observed price movement and potential resistance, to potentially capitalize on a downward market trend.
by FOREXN1
16
GOLD Retreats Amid Market Uncertainty Technical + Fund.AnalysisThe price of gold (XAU/USD) has recently pulled back from its weekly high, signaling a tentative stance from buyers. This retreat aligns with the uncertain market conditions, where conflicting factors are at play. On one hand, there is optimism surrounding the US debt-ceiling deal and a diminishing hawkish sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed). On the other hand, caution prevails ahead of crucial top-tier US data releases. Notably, the positive China Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) bolsters the upside momentum for XAU/USD. However, the probability of a 25 basis points rate hike by the Fed in June, standing at 40.0%, encourages gold buyers, further adding to the market dynamics. Looking ahead, the focus will be on the US employment indicators and flash PMIs for May, as they will provide clearer guidance for market direction. Additionally, the final round of talks by the Fed before the pre-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period for policymakers will be crucial. Furthermore, close attention should be paid to the voting by US Senators on measures to avert default conditions, even though the bill is expected to receive substantial support in the Senate, where Democrats hold the majority. If the slightly less hawkish bias from the Fed continues, supported by mixed US data, we may see a potential recovery in the gold price. However, if data releases remain positive and optimism for the US economy persists, XAU/USD bears may maintain their confidence. From a technical standpoint, the price continues to follow a bearish channel, with lower highs and lower lows, aligning with a pure swing trading strategy and the formation of ABCD patterns. Yesterday, after rebounding from the 61.8% - 78.6% Fibonacci area, the price experienced a new pullback in line with the bearish momentum. We anticipate a continuation of the bearish trend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
12
EUR/USD Remains Below 1.0700 Amid USD Index Strength Policy Div.The EUR/USD currency pair is currently experiencing oscillations below the 1.0700 level, primarily influenced by the USD Index surpassing the immediate resistance level of 104.30. This development reflects the strength of the US dollar and its impact on the pair's movements. Financial markets are witnessing a state of chaos due to the conflicting views among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding interest rate guidance. This divergence of opinions is causing uncertainty and instability in the markets, adding to the complexity of the current situation. European Central Bank President Müller expresses confidence in the central bank's plan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on multiple occasions, emphasizing the persistent nature of core inflation. This stance implies a potentially more aggressive approach from the European Central Bank. At present, the EUR/USD pair is consolidating within a narrow range below the significant psychological resistance level of 1.0700 during the early European session. Traders anticipate heightened market activity as the release of Eurozone inflation and United States employment data approaches. In the Asian session, S&P500 futures have recorded substantial gains, indicating a recovery in investor risk appetite. However, caution prevailed among market participants on Wednesday, leading to a sell-off of US equities. This cautious sentiment arose from mounting expectations of an additional interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Our analysis suggests the possibility of a potential pullback at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous swing, which coincides with the dynamic trendline of the bearish channel and the resistance area. This confluence of factors presents an opportunity for the formation of a new AB=CD pattern, with the D leg extending at 1.272%.
by FOREXN1
8
How to Day Trade or Swing Trade S&P500 Part 2Hey Traders, So this is part 2 of the previous strategy I talked about with the stock indexes. I used to trade the Forex, Commodities, Crypto and other markets. But in my opinion these stock indexes are the best markets of the all to trade because they move daily with strong volume and give you multiple trading opportunites. So lets look at now how we can truly fine tune this strategy and turn it into a great method. In the future I believe I will only focus on trading the stock indexes S&P500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000. Enjoy! Trade Well, Clifford
CME_MINI:ESM2023Education
by TradeTheIndex
4
US30 (Week of May21st)The previous idea for US30 still holds. I will still be looking for buys to the upper supply area for temporary or major sells.I will be looking for minor breaks of structure then a retest of the current demand zone to continue higher. I would prefer to get this entry at my trading session (New York), but if price moves up without me, I will look to take sell positions if market presents it self for that condition. Updates will be provided later. Good Luck!
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by TheDream20