Gold & Stocks what's in store for the next yearSome have asked me my opinion on gold & the stock market.
I sort of already wrote it in other ideas a bit here a bit there but I'll make a clean separate one.
I'll be able to show this to the bagholders that joined late and rage at me telling me I am sore I missed out, in a year or two.
Make sure to replace "will" by "I think the probability of this happening is higher than the probability of the opposite happening".
If you are looking for certainty I know a few "legends" and day traders who would be happy to tell you what they are certain will happen :)
I heard an anecdote about a TA day trader in a firm, firms have day traders coming in waves especially around market tops, and alot of people hate them. The technical expert in question was an overconfident "know-it-all".
If 400 lots rekt this analyst he had to be a day trader. In this example the day gambler was not even profitable. After years (before joining the firm) he lost all of his money and alot of other people's money. Imagine being an arrogant know-it-all without even making any money.
The person telling the story says he was a good analyst, I guess he could call levels oh great! Takes way more than this.
Day traders start to infest the financial world every time a market goes into euphoria. It is absolutely amazing how they are not aware the market conditions are not the same as 95% of the time, they think going up 100% in 3 months is just regular old growth? Too busy looking at their 5 minutes charts to be aware of the cycle the market is in?
They have a tendancy to be cocky, without having earned it. They mistake luck for talent. What these "technicians" and "day traders" fail to grasp is that all they did was being long beta in a very volatile (high stdev) uptrend market (in or close to euphoria). Might as well just have bought the SnP & the VIX.
On the other hand "investors" (you know what I mean) that will soon say "I am in for the long term", in particular "OGS", also mistake luck for genius but how they made money is being permabulls in a raging bull market.
The laggard "investors" will probably be around bagholding in a year or two, but how many of the day traders will still be around?
How many are smart enough to stop day trading and do something else when the conditions change? Less than 1% in my opinion.
We are in the era of "investors" and "day traders". Dave Portnoy "Captain of the ship" is the picture they should use in books about bubbles in the future.
They add nothing of value, both. All the do is make bubbles worse. Go up more and then drop more too. If they were somewhat useful they would make money even after the bubble exploded.
From my little experience with stocks and crypto I would say noobs (let's sum up both groups in 1) join in what we can divide in 2 waves.
The "OGS" and the top buyers. After those there is a 3rd wave, the "dip buyers", but it is not relevant to this idea.
I will show on a chart those groups.
Soooooo
I covered gold in many ideas before. Here is one of those:
The "hot pick" will be the stock market. Gold won't go up for this reason, as well as because it is at all time high extended without much buyers and price usually hesitates for a while around this area (gold at previous ath, bitcoin at 1k, the stock market with all the bears in 2015, etc).
I think gold has a high probability of staying sideways for a few months and of visiting $1700 and this would be a decent price looking to hold until at least 3k.
The stock market (but tech in particular) in my opinion has a high probability of remaining in a range for a few months, well 2 or months, you know what happens in 2 months. And then skyrocket up for at least 6 months.
I would buy the nasdaq around 10900. I have no idea what I am doing thought. If I lose it's just 1R gone big deal.
Good thing I do not work for a firm. I can imagine how it would go 😄
"So you are ultra bearish on the stock market but you want me to extend you some limits for buying stocks is that right?"
"Yes sir"
"Why?"
"Because I'm not an idiot"
Stares at me with a traumatized look mixed with disgust
"Also lost my last couple stock trades"
In term of experience (live backtest reading) I got a couple hundred hours in stocks, a few hundreds in Bitcoin (2000 but most of it was generic stuff or screaming it will go to zero for fun so I do not count it) and already about 10000 hours with Forex Gold Oil Copper (mostly FX) + what I learned about money at skewl (After 2 years of associate degree equivalent in math & 1 year of learning about computers security programming etc) and during my first job as a "swift expert". I'd say I learned more useful things in math (logic, reasoning, proof by the absurd) & stats (I don't even like stats but if it is the basic things it is ok) than in banking/currency classes or helping banks as the swift guy lmao, useless.
Not counting those years in the 10000 total.
Ye so basically don't listen to me. I'm just making educated guesses. I know about as much about stocks than Davey day traders. But I am usually right. I have been for a long time.
I have no proof and nothing to show for it but I called the bitcoin bottom in 2014 I think it was the last 1/5 of the retrace which I called. Bottom area anyway. Could have bought the very bottom lol.
I have old calls but that's in FX so doesn't count. And then Bitcoin again. Was I ever right about stocks? Like right as in precise? I can't even remember 😂
I think I sort of understand them but mmmm idk. We will see. I was right about Tesla I thought it was too crowded by bears and it was bad to short it. It's something. Perma bear on it but doesn't mean I don't think it can go up.
I was dead right about Facebook and it gapped down massively back in 2018 buuuut I sold too early and got stopped at the top (:
Most people, that do not understand probabilities, want certainty, it comforts them. Really the majority of people can't stand uncertainty it drives them nuts and they'll do anything for certainty (that's where speculators come in - they absorb short term risk for profit over the long run).
But there is a secret trick! No joke. There is 1 hidden secret way to have certainty. Well 2 if I count insider info.
The trick is value investing. You are certain the stock is historically expensive or cheap. Now the way stocks are valued can change and the old expensive can become the new cheap (HAHAHAHA can't help laughing while typing this), it never does and casuals think it is happening in every bubble and always get rekt, but in theory it is possible. Could change by a little bit this is very possible, by alot thought seems highly unlikely.
So ye this is pretty high certainty. Cheap stocks, expensive stocks. An investor doing his research can be certain a stock is cheap when he buys it.
The country can still collapse, the currency can explode (cough cough usd), Warren Buffet says "the usa survived everything" it kills me to hear anything that stupid by the king of survivor bias he was a permabull during the usa biggest secular bull in history (the usa of which history is only really 200 years btw, 400 at best). If Mr permabullfett was born in 1800 and invested between 1820 & 1900 I doubt he would say this.
I'll get into stocks as a value investor. Or never. I'll just look for several diversified low risk funds to put my money in, not looking to get any returns.
Any way to invest in tradingview? They're going to get a wave of new accounts like in 2017-2018 with crypto.
About gold I will short it if it drops down, really quickly, and then I'll have a long bias as it goes up.
