DCA
DENT/USDT - Binance - Potential channel and bull flag breakout Chart looks a bit noisy, but I'm testing out the Trend-Based FIB Time Indicator, hoping the retrace will bounce at its 1.0 marker. Further confluence of this present, as this point is also where the 50EMA, top blue CPR and a longish-term green trend line all meet.
Channel break DOWN measured move meets the 100EMA and red CPR line.
If there's further downward movement you could DCA at the lower red CPR lines.
Channel break UP measured move meets the 3.82 FIB and the 1st green CPR line (around 0.006148).
Further upward movement could lead to two potential pole moves; yellow meets the 1.0 FIB extension (0.007148ish) and white hits a green CPR (0.007382).
All eyes on BTC
OMG/USDT - Huobi - Potential Bull Flag and DCA OMG at resistance meeting top of pink channel.
If it bounces at the 21EMA step line then price could break up and out to meet the pole's measured move.
Green CPR line also meets the pole's measured move target range.
Closing below the 21 EMA steps could bring price back lower into the pink channel.
Price could bounce on the green 50 EMA and/or blue CPR ranges.
Lower still, the red 200 EMA could be good for a bounce and long around $13.88.
Could get a potential wick down to grab the $12.88 range also maybe.
All dependent on BTC as always.
BTC/USDT Finding the Dip?BTC was on an uptrend since the end of July 2021 after the massive correction between May-July. We can see BTC was very bullish with continuous green candles in the weekly chart until we hit 53k. Since that BTC started to correct. As lots of experts predicted this happen in September.
At the moment BTC broke the 42k Local support and trading below. if we refer to Demand Index it is still positive and we can see a downtrend making LH and LL (Demand Index). This indicates that Bears is in control at the moment bring the buying pressure lower.
So how low we can go?
1. Well we need a big green spike on the Volume indicator to reverse the trend and we haven't seen one since mid-August.
2. If we draw Fibonacci on weekly chat we can see the 50% correction 41k and we touched 40k. If we lose this support then the next stop is the 61.8% at 38k. Worst-case scenario next stop at 34k (78.6%)
This is a prediction purely based on technical and I'm ignoring all the FUD news.
In my opinion, 38k is the area where Whales are loading their cash and waiting to BUY. Only if the Bulls lose the battle at 41-42k.
The best strategy is to do Dollar Cost Average from 42k to 38k and accumulate much as we can. Because If we hit 38k or below then we will see a huge bullish spike in volume that will liquidate major bears and create a domino effect. This means BTC could pump from 38k (or 34k) to 48k in a short period.
This is not financial advice, please DYOR and maintain proper Risk Management strategy
The last DIP? Time to BUY?As you can see, BTC still making a higher low since few days back, and it just now testing the purple trend line BTC just broke and went upside few days before...
Right now BTC could found it support in both the purple trend line and the red fibonacci level line... this would be a very strong support if you asked my opinion...
if somehow the downward pressure is very-very big, and both of this support break, $46000 would be my first target in the downside...
But still, it it breaks to the downside, it wont surprise me if it testing lower level such as the $45K level, the most important support still would be in the $44.3K (green line)
If it breaks, then a lower price target would be in play... Final resistance would be in around 41K-42K level... Which also what the creator of BTC stock to flow model said in his tweet...
But for now, I am just accumulating/DCA in project that I like and waiting to see how it will play out...
Dont stress out!!! it's just noise until it breaks serious support and resistance... hahhaha
#Keepitsimple
#notfinancialadvice
Comparing a strategy with and without Safety OrdersOne important thing when day trading or scalping is risk management . To find the good balance between risk and reward .
So I compared the same strategy with and without Safety Orders.
Here's an idea explaining how safety orders work if you didn't know:
The strategy used for this example is a daily pivot & consolidation breakout.
Before I explain the results, a few definitions:
Net profit = Gross Profit - Gross Loss. Basically the total profit earned by winning trades minus the losing trades.
Percent Profitable = Percentage of winning trades divided by losing trades. I like to call it the winrate.
Profit Factor = Profits divided by Losses. It tells how many times your profit is bigger than your loss. A strategy becomes profitable when the profit factor is greater than 1.
Max Drawdown = Maximum consecutive losses. AKA, the biggest lose streak. A good indicator of how risky your strategy can be.
A last few details:
Both strategies have an intial capital of 10 000 €, 0.1% commission on each trade, and each order is a market one, to make sure everything gets filled.
█ STRATEGY 1 - Take Profit & Trailing Stop Loss
The strategy has a 7% Take profit and a Trailing Stop Loss that starts at 11%.
Each order buys with the total capital without compounding (fixed 10k €)
With 52 trades closed, the strategy has a profit % of 147 . It suffered a max % drop of 15.5% . The profit factor is of 2.19 . And finally, the winrate is 76.9%
█ STRATEGY 2 - Take Profit & Safety Orders + Stop Loss
The strategy has a 7% Take profit, 10 Safety Orders, each spaced by a 1% step, and a stop loss at 11%.
Now the base order will only buy 100 €, while each safety order will buy 990 €. This is to ensure that the total capital is used and not more.
Also note that the take profit is based on total trading volume. As the safety orders get filled, the target drops a bit lower.
With 263 trades closed, which is due to the safety orders (5 per trade in average), the profit % drops to 79 . That is almost half of strategy 1. But, the max % drop is divided by more than 2 : only 6.9% ! The profit factor almost doubled , as it is now at 3.8 . Also, the Percent profitable increased to 83.6% .
█ CONCLUSION
This comparison is just an example. I did this little process over hundreds of strategies and the outcome is always the same: safety orders reduce the risk, even though they also reduce the net profit a bit, the overall profit factor is increased .
So should you use them? It is up to you, but my answer is a big yes .
Tips on automation:
The simplest way to automate this is to place the safety orders using limit orders when the entry alert is received. Then close all deals upon take profit.
If you want to use market orders, you'll have to place each safety order as the price drops through the steps.
Indicators used in this example have restricted access. See my profile signature for more info.
The backtest results for this pair are shown below.
DCA on Bitcoin during 10 years: what's the profits ?The DCA (dollar cost average) consist to buy an amount of a value weekly or monthly without consideration of the price. Applying this method on Bitcoin you can analyse the last 10 years
Each arrows show you the buying average of one whole year, moving to the next average there is the % of profit year by year
It is interesting to notice that only 2 years was negative and less than 5%
While the OBV converge nicely with the price, which means that more and more people hold bitcoin
The profits of the first 10 years cycle of bitcoin is almost 500 000 %
Is it look profitable ?
Ripple XRP DCA Long and Short PositionsThis is a simple strategy to trade, with excellent risk management. The green lines are good entry points for taking a Long position and the Red Lines are good entry points for taking a short position. This is for educational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice.
$LINK: Multi-year pitchfork providing clarityWhat's up frens. We got a REALLY nice reversal here with what looks to be a clear break of the multi year pitchfork prong that has been acting as a SUPER strong level of resistance.
- Light Blue arrow: Strong looking V reversal pattern with 2 back to back daily buy signals from True Vibration 2.0 indicator. That' major bullish right there and if you bought that dip? You're up 100% since then. I bought that dip, because I buy every week and DCA like we've been talking about.
- Orange arrow: After a strong rally, price action closes well outside the Bollinger bands on the daily. This also coincides directly with the same blue 1.0 deviation pitchfork prong that we talked about above. HUGE S/R line acting as resistance here.
- Red arrow: Multiple fakeout dips straight off of that S/R line. Quickly bought up with good volume. One last major dip before the final break through of the trend line.
- Green arrow: Clear break above multi year trend line. We'd like to see this daily close well above it, and we'd expect it to be tested? But the weeks of pushing against this resistance trying to break through? Might result in a more explosive move upwards.
I'm targeting the next two pitchfork prongs, as they align well with previous major S/R levels. I'd obviously expect it not to be a straight line. We'd like to see it retest and hold at S/R on it's way up.
As always though. I'm going to just keep buying and focusing on building as big a stack as I can before Super Linear Staking drives price out of my comfort zone.
$LINK will reward patience.
Covered DIP Buying - An economic sleight of handSo, I have some coins I bought in the big dip, that have remained underwater since this latest dip. It has been annoying me.
Like many others, I don't like selling for a loss. But it's such dead capital, and it seems they are a little too high to regain their old levels any time soon, so they just sit there annoying me.
I could DCA, but that is quite frankly a sunk cost fallacy problem and I think they are both pretty overvalued. I only like to DCA on undervalued stuff, because you are improving your deal even further.
But anyway, while the crypto market is 20-30% down across the board I thought I'd finally get out of these two (OMG and ETH).
Simple sleight of hand at a new bottom if you have a little bit of spare capital.
Re-buy the same AMOUNT (quantity) of the coin at the new bottom price.
You have got a DCA if you so choose OR wait until the market recovers a bit and sell the more expensive pile after it recovers a certain amount.
Voila, it is as if you sold out of your position during a big dump, and bought into the bottom again, but slightly less stressful.
To be clear through example.
I bought 0.06 Eth at 2100 EUR for 126 eur a month or so back.
I just bought 0.06 at 1580 EUR for 94.8 eur yesterday
I would expect to easily be able to resell (my 0.06) for at least 2000 USD, or about 1750 USD, or 105 eur.
This is the inverse of selling on the way down and buying back in at the bottom.
(Bought 0.06 at 126 euro, sold at 1750 euro for 105 eur, and then bought the bottom for 94.8 ... thus winning 10 euro)
To be honest, I mainly want to get my shit off of Uphold because it is expensive and useless, but this seemed a useful mental trick.
Defensively aggressive laddering dips - "Knife Juggling"
I contest that Crypto is currently not bull and bear, but pigeons and eagles.
"Just buy the dip" and "HODL" are two bromides of wisdom for the pigeons, kindly given by the eagles.
Ways to keep skittish retail from panic selling and causing even more volatility.
But clearly in a volatile market with big swings (10-20% within hours), buying dips is a good strategy. But we are sagely warned against 'catching knives' - get confirmation before buying. Great, but whenever Bitcoin shits itself the market drops with it, and Bitcoin is more erratic than modern politics, which means you can timidly wait a long time for a good entry... and still catch a knife in the hand.
HODL is also cute. "Just buy whatever the market is doing, don't try to time the market". Michael Saylor, gigachad himself, bought 500 million worth of Bitcoin for 37.6k average... within a week it was trading consistently under 32k. The circumstances there are a bit different, as held in fund etc, but one can't help but think a bit of timing the market would have been wise.
If you bought Bitcoin at 65k, and it slumped to 55k, and then it was clearly heading down, why wouldn't you sell 'at a loss' and buy back in later? More satoshis for the same amount as the original investment, even if the first cash out was less money than you originally put in. Stressful and with some risk, I grant you, but not dumb. This is what all money managers do, but we are told dilligently not to do it - one rule for the pigeons, one rule for the eagles.
But one great idea from HODL is the Dollar-Cost Averaging... If you are 'under water' on an investment, you can keep buying back in as the price craters. There is a horrible amount of sunk cost fallacy to it - throwing good money after bad - but you can reduce your break even sale price quickly that way.
How does this fit in with catching a falling knife, or rather knife-juggling , you ask?
Well, if you keep track of your DCA, and you are using an exchange with lower fees (eg Kraken) rather than something with a high spread (eg Uphold), you can buy dips and sell tops slightly safer.
IDEA
This is more for swing trading than 'investing'. Invest in bear markets, sell in bulls... let the pigeons get that backwards.
With this technique you are still able to aggressively buy dips, as long as you believe the market is in an overall uptrend.
It relies upon laddering in (multiple buying points) on the way down, and taking decent profits sensibly on the way up (don't sell all in one go, but take some off the table whenever there is a big move - do not sell below your break even price (BE)). If you are tracking your DCA, as you take profits on peaks, your BE.
As your BE price drops, you can use that for your new stop loss limit level, and use BE*1.05 for your stop loss trigger... ensuring you get 5% return whatever. You could also split it, so half your remaining bag stops at that level, whereas the other is stopped as high as possible but decently below a key support to allow retracement.
You can then set limit order buys on a small amount above good support lines, which should provide a base in times of market fear. You will often snipe a good deal and it will roar back up. If it is being pushed down by BTC price action, it often recovers quickly, regaining that support level, reducing your risk.
NB: If you buy into further dips on the way up, your BE will also rise, so be careful if your BE is close to market or has no support cover.
NB: If you buy into further dips below your BE price, because the market has dropped since your first entry, your BE will also drop, thus making it easier to get out of your position without a loss (especially if you bagged some profits when possible) when it next upticks.
It does rely on eventual market upticks, but that's crypto. Keep your head, don't panic sell, and try to clear out of your holdings now and then to reassess the market. Be clear what you are investing in, and what you are trading in - they are different strategies.
And no shit half the battle is good entries and exits. Sell into strength, buy at peak fear etc, but try to get the meat of the move.
Good luck.
HOW
No Pro, no Show :'( - See comments
In arrange QUANTITY and PRICE in two columns, and just copy the trade numbers from Cryptowatch etc. BUY is simply quantity, but SELL is the negative of quantity. (eg 50 | 0.10 ; -50 | 0.15 )
Sum the quantities, which should give you your current holdings (check!)
Then use =SUMPRODUCT(B8:B24,C8:C24) to add all the multiplied quantities and prices.
You then divide that by the sum of your current holdings (repeat the sum equation or call that cell)
Voila. That will give you BE, and *1.05 will give you BE + 5%, giving you your SL price to ensure a profit.
Figuring this out has helped me deal with swing trading the schizophrenic BTC/Alt market the last week or two.
---
Let me know if it helps, or if you think it is ridiculous/sophomoric/dangerous. I'm also fairly new - but not doing terribly.
Plug Power back on the trend linePLUG is a long term play, tesla hedge (10 Years)
As long as PLUG is on this trend I will continue to dollar cost average daily
- for beginners this literally means start off slow on cashapp with $10/day
- for advance traders DCAing at levels you feel comfortable buying and buying BIG #getwrecked
If it dips below the parallel stop DCA and find another trade u might want to participate in
IF it rises above feel free to take profit and buy other assets or go on amazon and treat yo self
trading is about YOU and not your personal life finance
communities make it about the community
never feel ashamed to profit off a great trade
people that bully are those that have lost and have broken their own rules time and time again
#notonmighwatch
The Power of Dollar Cost Averaging in a Bull TrendMy friends,
Here is an example, of Dollar Cost Averaging an asset that you believe in longterm. All the vertical blue lines are times I bought every month. This example happens to be Microsoft stock MSFT. But you can do this with anything. If you wait for an asset to drop before you buy or you think you can time the market good luck with that. In this case MSFT has been in a bull cycle since 2015 so you probably would have never even got in.
My point is, don't wait for a major pull back because it might never happen. Instead invest in something you believe in and Dollar Cost Average.
DCA for BTC is the way to invest? Trade #2Hello to everyone. I believe that DCA is the way to go in crypto and taking profits (TP) is a must. No one really knows where the price of bitcoin will go, but we all love it. I’ve tested this strategy for some time now and want to share it with you. The concept of DCA could be applied to any crypto currency and could by applied to accumulate a fiat or cryptocurrency.
Trade placed with small tp and 6 additional buy orders. Every time price moves lower, I purchase more and move my tp lower. I also have trailing stop activated for tp in case if the price just goes parabolic.
Current trade:
Bought @ 57033.30
TP: 57832.09
DCA for BTC is the way to invest?Hello to everyone. I believe that DCA is the way to go in crypto and taking profits (TP) is a must. No one really knows where the price of bitcoin will go, but we all love it. I’ve tested this strategy for some time now and want to share it with you. The concept of DCA could be applied to any crypto currency and to accumulate a fiat or cryptocurrency.
Trade placed with small tp and 6 additional buy orders. Every time price moves lower, I purchase more and move my tp lower. I also have trailing stop activated for tp in case if the price just goes parabolic.
Current trade:
Bought @ 54887.80
TP: 55656.54
The Bitcoin DCA Strategy Easily ExplainedIn this post, I want to go over a strategy that beginners can implement with any asset or commodity that have solid fundamentals.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Explanation
- A lot of people have a hard time timing the market, and buying the exact bottom of a dip.
- In this post, I want to explain a strategy that the average joe can use, in order to optimize their average entry price of their position
- DCA, or Dollar Cost Averaging, is when investors divide up the total amount of capital they're willing to invest in, and simply invest a portion of it regularly, regardless of price action and volatility.
- So for instance, buying Bitcoin every Monday regardless of whether it has formed a new all time high, or has corrected 30% from its local top, is an example of DCA.
- We can apply this idea with a slight twist, and aim to buy the local dips.
- Above, we see Bitcoin's daily chart on the logarithmic scale.
- The 5 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is marked in blue, 20 SMA in green.
- A very simple DCA strategy would be to buy at the 20 SMA when the 5 SMA is at a downtrend.
- Looking at the price action of the past, we can roughly backtest this strategy.
- The points marked by the red circle would be regions where we would have entered a position for Bitcoin.
- Given that we enter $10,000 for each position, we would have entered a total of $50,000 at $25k.
- Giving us 140% returns, this would amount to $120,000 today.
Conclusion
If you're struggling with technical analysis and you're having a hard time educating yourself on buying the right dips, refer to this idea, and try to think of your own way of dollar cost averaging through a simple strategy, as simple as referring to the moving averages.
If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content!
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
BTC: a bullish scenario🚀Fast your seatbelt and prepare to the takeoff.
According to oscillator version of the indicator I published a while ago we're about to cross the slow moving average with the fast moving average, both computed on the difference of emas plotted on the original version of the indicator.
Let's see 🍿