DE40
DAX continues to break into new all time highs.GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 16823.
There is no indication that the rally is coming to an end.
Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 16715.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our outlook is bullish.
We look to Buy at 16715 (stop at 16615)
Our profit targets will be 16965 and 17025
Resistance: 16823 / 16900 / 17000
Support: 16767 / 16700 / 16650
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX CEEPS CLIMING AMONG UNIMPRESSIVE ECONOMIC DATA European stock markets rallied today amid indications that major central banks might have concluded their tightening cycle. The DAX index in Germany edged up by 0.1%, fueled by growing investor optimism about the European Central Bank's pause on interest rate hikes despite bleak economic data.
The Eurozone faces a potential recession in the last quarter of the year, with German factory orders plummeting by 3.7% in October. As consumers grapple with high interest rates and prices, European retail sales are expected to rise marginally by 0.2% on the month, showing an annual drop of 1.1%.
ECB's Isabel Schnabel's comments hint at a halt to rate hikes, triggering a decline in the euro against the dollar. Speculation on impending rate cuts has propelled the DAX to record highs. The uncertain market awaits the Fed's meeting next week and the ECB's final rate decision, crucial factors in determining the EUR/USD's next move. For now, a dovish Fed or an upturn in European data could signal a potential turnaround for EUR/USD bulls.
On the technical side, MACD is still showing Buy signals, while RSI is deep into overbought territory.
If the price continues to climb, it might reach levels of 16880, but if it drops, it might fall to the support level of 16277. As a pivot point might be considered 16493
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
DAX's new All Time High sends a message to indices globallyDAX hit a new All Time High level, leading world stock indices on this rally and sending a clear message to markets globally: This rally has only just started.
As you see on this 1M (monthly) time-frame, with the obvious exception of the COVID crash anomaly (Black Swan event), the index has been trading within a very stable Channel Up pattern since the start of the 2008 crisis. The 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) has been the absolute Support during this time, holding even during the COVID market crash.
The recent November rally after October's bottom on a 3 month straight decline, is completing a very rare but powerful bullish signal that has only happened another 3 times during this 16-year pattern (5 if we count smaller occasions). As you can see, every time the index broke above a dashed Lower Highs trend-line of a correction wave, it then pulled-back to test it and after it held, it initiated a strong and lengthy rally.
There have been two major Highs on this Channel Up pattern, and those are displayed perfectly on the Sine Waves peaks (April 2015, January 2022). Both have been exactly on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension since the first correction following a market High (July 2007, April 2015). Those occasions that are matched with the current rebound more accurately based on the 1M RSI are marked with a blue circle.
The minimum % rise that those 5 events have delivered is the +22.10% of February 2020, which of course could have been higher if it wasn't cut short by the COVID crash. In any case a +22.10% rise from the October 2023 Low would match perfectly the top of the Channel Up and will make a technical Higher High for the pattern. As a result, our target is 17800 on DAX.
What the blue-print of the Sine Waves show though for long term investors is that the Cyclical Peak therefore target around the end of 2028 - beginning 2029 is 20500. Those that patiently wait for corrections to take advantage of and buy, will get rewarded based on this historic behavioral pattern.
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DAX: Approaching the All Time High for a low risk short.DAX has turned vastly overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 80.023, MACD = 247.400, ADX = 61.180) with the 1D RSI reaching the highest levels since April 5th 2021. It is fast approaching R2 (16,535) which is the index' All Time High, technically a low risk short opportunity. We are looking to take it on next week's opening and target the 1D MA200-0.382 Fibonacci band (TP = 15,800).
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DAX Buy the pull-back and target the All Time HighDAX eventually broke to the upside following our previous trade idea (see chart below) and hit both our 15635 and 15995 targets:
The index is now approaching Resistance 1 (16535), which is the All Time High (ATH) but the 1D CCI shows a Bearish Divergence and potential short-term pull-back. That would serve as an excellent accumulation opportunity for an end-of-the-year rally. We are waiting for a buy at 15800 (1D MA200) in order to target 16535.
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Upward Momentum For The DAX Amidst Economic Data Release The DAX in Frankfurt exhibited robust performance, closing at 16,150.17 with a 1.10% surge, largely fueled by positive market responses to German Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and Federal Reserve hints at potential rate cuts. German CPI figures for November indicated a substantial easing of inflationary pressures, favorably impacting investor sentiment. Throughout the trading day, the index fluctuated between a high of 16,167.94 and a low of 15,989.91, surpassing its previous closing value of 15,975.22. Key players like Infineon Technologies saw a 4% spike in shares, while other notable performers such as Zalando, Sartorius, and Siemens Energy registered over 3% climbs. Additionally, the automotive sector depicted strength with Vonovia, BMW, and Mercedes Benz Group securing gains exceeding 2%. However, not all DAX constituents experienced positive momentum, with Covestro and Munchener Ruck facing declines greater than 0.5%.
Amidst the market upswing, the euro slightly retreated against a strengthening dollar, trading within the range of $1.1018 to $1.0969. The Dollar Index, measuring the dollar's strength against major currencies, increased by 0.15% to 102.90. Simultaneously, German government bond yields mirrored the global trend of declining yields, closing at 2.4510%, a 1.7% drop from the previous session. This decline aligns with softer inflation data and potential prospects of a more accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy, including probable rate cuts to stimulate economic growth.
Technically, the DAX's monthly chart indicates an ongoing upward trend, but the index faces critical junctures. Despite retesting previous highs, the index hasn't broken out, while recent weakness challenges price support. A breakout would signify bullish prospects for both Germany and the United States, whereas a failure at price support could convey a negative message for both economies. Supported by indicators like MACD and RSI, a continuation of the bullish trend might propel the price towards levels around 16,295.42, considering a pivot point at 16,170.56 that could lead to a return to 16,129.73. Investors are advised to closely monitor these pivotal levels as they could dictate the index's future trajectory and signal broader market implications, not only within Germany but also for global markets, particularly in the United States.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses
DAX Strong sell opportunityDAX extended its almost 1 month rise and is about to hit Resistance (1) at 16065. We've had two rejections there in August.
Over this Resistance lies the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, a key technical Resistance during recovery rallies.
Besides those obvious bearish bias, the current rally can be compared to the pattern from March 7th to May 19th, which ended with a -4.33% pull back to the MA50 (1d).
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 15550 (the 0.5 Fibonacci level, on top of Support Zone (1)).
2. The MA50 (1d) on a -4.33% drop can be targeted only if you see the pull back to aggressive by its second (1d) candle as on May 23rd.
Tips:
1. The CCI (1d) is posting a Bearish Divergence, which has been an absolute (100%) sell signal during the whole year. Most pull backs on that signal have been greater than -4.33%.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
: European Equities and DAX: Navigating Bullish Sentiment Amid EEuropean equity markets, especially the German DAX, are poised with a bullish sentiment despite concerns about a potential economic slowdown in 2024. Analysts surveyed anticipate a moderate increase in European benchmarks, projecting a 4.1% rise for the pan-European STOXX 600 index and a 2.5% increase for the Euro STOXX 50 index by the end of next year. Amid worries over economic headwinds and the possibility of a recession, the markets remain cautiously optimistic, attributing the potential growth to expectations of a more dovish stance from central banks and a potential easing in energy prices.
Despite Germany's position as the bloc's industrial powerhouse facing challenges due to its reliance on energy-intensive industries and external demand, the German DAX is expected to rise by 5% by the end of 2024, building upon its 14% gain in 2023. Analysts emphasize the importance of key levels for the DAX, suggesting that a breakout from current resistance levels could signify a bullish trajectory for both Germany and the broader U.S. markets. Technical indicators such as RSI and MACD also align with this bullish sentiment, providing buy signals.
Investors are cautiously optimistic, considering the potential for a year-end rally in the U.S. to positively impact European equities due to increased risk appetite globally. However, concerns persist regarding a possible economic slowdown's impact on European markets, particularly in the latter half of 2024, posing challenges for sustained growth.
The current outlook for DAX hints at a continuation of its upward trend, potentially reaching resistance levels around 16,060. However, analysts also note the possibility of a drop towards support levels around 15,860 should a pivot point at 15,962.66 be breached, reinforcing the importance of monitoring key levels for cues about future market directions.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
DAX: Overbought and approaching August's Resistance.DAX turned overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 71.962, MACD = 124.900, ADX = 41.751) as it closed its 9th straight green 1D candle and is approaching the R1 level (16,050). This has been the Resistance since the start of August. The index is in need of a technical pullback otherwise this rally won't be sustainable. We will short next week's opening near the R1 and aim for the 1D MA200 (TP = 15,670), which is at the top of the S1 Zone. That is a Symmetric Support Zone holding since April 5th, only broken downwards in September's selloff.
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DAX to continue in the upward move?DE30EUR - intraday
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the high.
A lower correction is expected.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 15694.
We look to Buy at 15705 (stop at 15605)
Our profit targets will be 15955 and 16005
Resistance: 15869 / 15900 / 16000
Support: 15778 / 15712 / 15650
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Watch this low risk November trading plan.It's been a bit long since we last took a trade on DAX (DE40) but it didn't disappoint as it hit both our buy and sell targets (see chart below) within the 3-month Channel Down:
The rebound took place within the 6-month Support Zone and slightly under the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), similar to the March 20 rebound. The fractals are identical as they both rebounded aggressively, indicating strong demand inside the Support Zone. Both also formed a strong 1D MACD Bullish Cross straight after they bottomed.
The price is now on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at the top of the Channel Down, and the last two days failed to close the 1D candle above the MA50, despite breaking it. The Resistance pressure is getting stronger since this is also the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the July 31 top.
As a result, we are willing to sell the Lower Highs top of the Channel Down and target 15050 (can go even to the 0.618 Fib level but we seek short-term exposure for now) but only as long as the candles close below the 1D MA50. Upon the first 1D candle closing above the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and resume buying, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 15635.
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DAX to get back on the old tracks?GER40 - 24h expiry
Daily signals are mildly bearish.
Negative overnight flows lead to an expectation of a weaker open this morning.
A break of the recent low at 15070 should result in a further move lower.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Short term momentum is bearish.
We look to Sell a break of 15058 (stop at 15158)
Our profit targets will be 14808 and 14758
Resistance: 15150 / 15230 / 15270
Support: 15070 / 15000 / 14900
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
GERMAN40 BEARISH OUTLOOKGermany, a European economic powerhouse, is facing the threat of a technical recession as its industrial production, particularly in the automotive sector, has experienced a significant decline. In September, industrial production fell by 1.4%, surpassing the projected 0.4% drop, and the third quarter saw a 2.1% decrease in total production. The automotive industry, a crucial part of Germany's economy, reported a 5% drop in vehicle production from the previous month, alongside declines in other vital sectors like electrical equipment and pharmaceuticals. While there was a slight increase in factory orders for September, primarily due to large-scale orders and backlogs, economists remain cautious about the potential for future economic growth.
This economic downturn is worrisome for Germany, as it may be heading toward a technical recession, characterized by two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Policymakers and economists are likely to closely monitor the situation and may consider measures to support the economy, such as fiscal stimulus or incentives to boost consumer spending and business investment. However, the situation is not isolated and may be influenced by global economic trends and factors, making it essential to keep an eye on international economic developments to gauge Germany's economic prospects in the coming months.
On a technical note, the daily graph had produced an Evening Star pattern that is reliable pattern for a downtrend. RSI is still on the neutral site, but MACD is already showing sell signals.
If this trend continues the price might reach levels of 14 977.5. In the opposite scenario the price might reach levels of 15 315.21
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses
DAX: Approaching the 1D MA50. Buy the pullback.Target achieved on DAX (chart at the end) as the price made a straight rebound at the bottom of the Channel Down. The 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSi = 52.756, MACD = -158.600, ADX = 30.783) and being that close to the 1D MA50 without being bullish already, makes a short term pullback possible. On the long term, we expect a bullish breakout over the Channel Down as the current rally originated after an (almost) one month long 1D RSI Bullish Divergence. So as long as the price gets rejected under the 1D MA50, we will wait for a 4H MA50 pullback to open the new long and target the R1 level (TP = 15,575), a candidate to make contact with the 1D MA200 as well.
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DAX: Amazing Channel Down symmetry calls for a buy.DAX hit (even breached) the bottom of the Channel Down on the 1D timeframe and reacted with a rebound. It is not a strong one yet as the 1D technical outlook is still bearish (RSI = 34.478, MACD = -177.100, ADX = 34.069) but the remarkable symmetry with the two bearish legs prior, calls for a currently undervalued price for the short term.
Technically the two rebounds after making LL inside this Channel Down, reached a little over the 0.5 Fibonacci level. The buy signal becomes even stronger if we take into consideration that we got the first 1D RSI Bullish Divergence. We are buying having a modest target on the 0.5 Fib (TP = 15,100), which depending on how aggressive the current reaction is, can even reach the 1D MA50.
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Will DAX turnaround today?DE30EUR - 24h expiry
We are trading at oversold extremes.
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Bullish divergence can be seen on the daily (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
A break of the recent high at 14920 should result in a further move higher.
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to Buy a break of 14922 (stop at 14822)
Our profit targets will be 15172 and 15232
Resistance: 14920 / 15000 / 15100
Support: 14780 / 14700 / 14600
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX continues in the downward move.DE30EUR - 24h expiry
Our short-term bias remains negative.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
15100 has been pivotal.
Bespoke resistance is located at 15100.
The preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
20 4-hour EMA is at 15080.
We look to Sell at 15098 (stop at 15198)
Our profit targets will be 14848 and 14788
Resistance: 14981 / 15100 / 15200
Support: 14916 / 14800 / 14700
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX: Rebound expected to test the 1D MA50.DAX is trading inside a Channel Down since July 31st and lately has been on the decline after a rejection on the 1D MA50. Naturally, its 1D technical outlook is bearish (RSI = 38.140, MACD = -103.800, ADX = 23.717) but also low enough to justify a short term rebound.
We expect one last 1D MA50 that will decide the long term trend and based on the previous -6.50% pre-bearish leg, this should be on the 0.786 Fibonacci level. That is marginally under the top of the Channel Down and that is our target (TP = 15,450).
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DAX Short term sell signal on the MA200 (4h).DAX got rejected on the MA200 (4h) and is pulling back.
This is heavy pressure as it took place near the top of the 2 month Channel Down.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the first green (4h) candle.
2. Buy if Resistance (1) breaks.
Targets:
1. 15230 (Rising Support and -2.20% decline like the September 5th pull back).
2. 16000 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) just formed a Sell Cross. This amplifies the short term selling momentum.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DAX is topping short term. Fast profit opportunity.DAX trade excatly as expected last time (chart at the bottom) making a new Low in the established Channel Down.
The price reached the 0.5 Fibonnaci level today, a reading which formed the August 31st Lower High on the other -6.50% bearish leg.
Sell now and target 15150 (Rising Support) but close if it reaches first the 1day MA50 as the MACD Buy Cross can completely reverse it long term.
Previous chart:
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DAX has started the new Channel Down bullish legDAX hit last week the bottom (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down that started after the July 31 High. Technically that is a short-term buy signal, aimed at the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the top of the Channel Down. Our current target is 15500 (also on a +3.70% symmetry with the previous bullish leg of the Channel).
A 1D candle close above the Channel Up will be a bullish break-out signal targeting 15920 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement level). But until it does, the trend will remain bearish within the Channel Down, targeting the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) at 14750.
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DAX: Channel Down bottom buy to 15,500.DAX touched the bottom of the Channel Down today and immediately reacted positively. The 1D timeframe is bearish technically (RSI = 33.050, MACD = -53.850, ADX = 44.059) but the RSI double bottomed inside a Zone same way it did on the August 18th LL. We are long, aiming at a +3.73% rise (same as August) as so far the bearish legs at least have been symmetrical. We may see a 1D MA50 test there (TP = 15,500).
Prior idea:
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