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DEATHS_US

SPX and the Covid Death NumbersTechnical introduction I don't know who is going to read this so I am going to be a bit more detailed than normal to explain some of this indicators. The moving average convergence/divergence indicator, also known as the 'Mac D" defaul calculations is to that the differnce between the 12 period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and subtract the 26 period EMA. So if the MACD reads 5 then the 12 EMA is 5 units above the 26. That doens't mean alot of the difference is between 100 and 105 but it does mean a lot if the difference is between a 1 and a 6. Likewise if you have a negative number it means the 12 EMA is below the 12 EMA, a sign price is decreasing The average of the MACD is called the signal line and the default is set to a 9 period look back So when the MACD is above the signal line the change in momentum is positive for nine periods and when it is below 0 the change in momentum is negative, and when the reading is zero the change in momentum is flat. If you minus the MACD from the signal line you get the MACD Histogram. You can use both the MACD proper, the signal line, or the Histogram to look for divergences. Time for the Divergence primer: Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator Hidden (Trend Continuation) Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator COVID Analysis Beginning with the Covid Death Numbers on the right The death count can only go up but the MACD and histogram can give us some idea how the momentum can change. When the 12 and 26 EMAs are furthest apart the MACD has its highest score, which we see happens around May 9th. When the MACD and Signal line cross its a sign that the rate of change has been roughly constant for 12 to 26 periods. As the MACD dips below the signal line it means the rate of reported deaths is decreasing. Deaths are still going up, but the rate is decreasing. At our current date we see the MACD looks very close to crossing the signal line. That means that death rate is going to be increasing. And because there is so much averaging going on between the 12, and 26 EMAs and the signal smoothing for 9 periods we know this change in rate isn't random fluctuation. In other words, a stained MACD Signal Cross predicts or suggest the reported number of COVID deaths is going to pop. Probably in a big way. If we start to see the MACD histogram rounding off positive we can get some sort of idea if there is going to be some divergences and what that means for the death rate. SPX Technical Analysis The divergence primer tells us that a lower high on price action but a higher high on a indicator is Hidden Bearish Divergence. This suggest strongly that the trend is a continuation of a downtrend. Both the MACD and the Histogram are showing this Hidden bearish divergence. The orange chart formation is a rising wedge positioned as a bull trap. The blue line shows where previous support at the years open turned into resistance at the top of my proposed bear trap. The MACD appears to be finding something resembling support on the Signal Line. This means that there has been some considerable sideways action. Sideways action ultimately has to pick a direction and the hidden bearish divergence suggest it will be to the downside. All of this is on a 3d intra week chart. Fundamental Analysis An increase in the rate of COVID death numbers may behoove a government response and/or a change in optimism in traders and investors. We can see the hot spotes a shifting in the US away from the Easter Seaboard down the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere. Mass human psychology means there were always going to be another wave, if not a third. How to adapt to that broadly isn't the question here, it is what one should do financially. I am not a financial advisor, and i am not your financial advisor even if I was one. I am taking a short position against SPX. www.npr.org
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DEATHS_USD. P-Modeling Pt 2. Black Death of Cajuns Wave Two What a fucked up time we are about to enter.. Welcome to the Paradigm Shift. I wish you the best of luck in these upcoming months.. not in just trading but in your physical, and mental health. I hope I am wrong. Please Read this chart very carefully. I have way to many things I can not ignore. I will spare you the lecture. You may not understand. But.. Do not underestimate the power of this second wave. It will be one of the biggest global crisis of the our time. I really hope I look like a fool on this chart. Please for the love of nature. I hope I am wrong. because if I am even remotely right.. The second half of 2020 will make the first half of 2020 seem like a cool summer breeze on a crisp fall day. ____________________________________________________________ The storm has arrived. Which way will the wind blow... If you are a doubter of covid-19, you won't be soon. Store Shelves will be empty again soon. Emergency rooms will be bursting at the seams. Backup hospitals will be bursting at the seams. 12% increase of deaths per week at onset of parabolic death rate. Mandatory Lockdowns for another 3 months. Civil Outcries. Civil Unrest. Market Capitulations. Economic Collapse. and most importantly... Chaotic Change.. Change that will shape the next 10 years. Wave Two of Covid-19 will be in the history books someday. We are beginning the transition into the 4th industrial revolution. The Cybernetic One. So what path do we take folks.. The best case scenario or worst case scenario.. What side of history will you be remembered by? Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
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