What Analysts Got Wrong about the Recent Volatility.Since I'm not a professional analyst, I've sunk many hours of research in the past week to understand the recent move in the market on a deeper level. Here are my findings. I hope you find this informative.
I've been hearing different analysts' opinions about the recent move in the stock market. I heard the money is moving from tech stocks to banks, or from growth stocks to value stocks. I'm here to say that neither is true. NASDAQ:GOOG is a tech stock and it's been rising. NASDAQ:COST is a value stock and it's been falling. Observe different stocks and you'll find numerous examples. The recent move is rather about companies in debt vs companies with free cash flow . It turns out that when interest rates are raised, it can be predicted with certainty that more money is going to flow into servicing existing debt rather than into productivity. Watch this talk with Brent Johnson to understand this concept, minute 50 to 60. Banks, who recently had their debts quantitatively eased, have more room to buy corporate bonds from companies like GM and Ford. This debt is used to service older debt. The big money, which understands this debt-based economy well, knows precisely where value is going when interest rates rise. Big money used their tried-and-tested calculations and decided to move their investments from free-cash-flow companies, to debt-generating companies. That's what's been happening, and that's the reasoning behind it.
However, there is a point the smart money is missing and they keep missing it and never learn. There is much more value to reap from technology and innovation than there is in loan interests. This value of tech is not priced into their tried-and-tested calculations. It's probably too uncertain for them. But realize that when companies like Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Tesla create value through technology, they are carrying the rest of the useless debt-generating economy on their backs and creating prosperity for the entire nation and for the world. Real value is in productivity. The United States has moved slowly after WW2 from an industrial exporter to a liquidity and debt exporter of sorts, which also reflected on the US's internal economy. And that weakened the industrial sector over the decades and bubbled the financial sector to an overwhelming extent that it's sucking more and more money from productive businesses and pouring it into existing debts with the purpose of buying more time. The retail investor should learn and understand this in order to position themselves with high conviction on the side of technology and simply hold stocks like Tesla for a decade. You are already benefiting the economy by saving money aside and putting it in the right place and of course the reward is high.
Let me know your thoughts. I probably made mistakes and left some statements in need of more elaboration.
Debt
10 Year Yield to Spike above 1%? Currency War Heats Up!My long time followers and readers know two things about the bond/credit markets:
1) They are by far the largest markets in the world even dwarfing the Stock/Equity Markets.
2) If you want to know where the Stock Market is going, look at the 10 Year Bond Yield (TNX).
Of course, some argue that things have changed due to central bank money printing propping assets up. 80 Billion per month in fact by the Federal Reserve. This is to ensure that interest rates remain suppressed. Many people do not know how this works. The central bank prints money by buying bonds. It buys the bonds, and then money is credited to banks/dealers etc. New money has now entered the system.
Historically, government debt made the majority of pension funds because they were the safest asset. Bonds are (were) held for yield. For example, say you owned decade plus year government debt before 2007, your 1 million would be netting you between 50-80k per year depending on the interest. Post Great Financial Crisis (GFC), that 1 million would bring in less than 30k per year and even lower today.
Pension funds need an average of 8% per year. You are not making that in bonds. Pensions have thus had to add more risk, ie: buy stocks. In fact, the average person retiring had to do the same. Since you could not buy bonds for long term yield, this money went into the nest safest asset: real estate. Back in the day, a financial advisor would not tell you to put all your money into stocks when you are close to retirement. Today you really have no choice.
Before I discuss the weekly chart for the 10 year yield and what this implies for 2021, a quick lesson on what this chart shows us.
This chart indicated the yield on bonds, NOT the price of the bond. Therefore bond yield and bond prices have an inverse relationship. When the price of Bonds drop, the 10 year yield chart moves higher (rates spike), when the price of bonds pop, the 10 year yield moves lower (rates drop).
Large funds and those studying to be fund managers are well versed in the asset allocation model. Percentage of portfolio's mainly in bonds and stocks. In the GFC crisis, we heard the term risk off and risk on a lot, and is still used today. A risk off environment is when investors are buying stocks and other riskier assets and dumping bonds and other safety assets. A risk on environment is the opposite: investors sell stocks to buy bonds and other safety assets.
The VIX has primarily been used to gauge when there is fear in the market and whether we are in a risk off or risk on environment. Gold and the US Dollar as well. But why not just look at the 10 year yield itself?
Back to the weekly chart of the 10 year YIELD. Currently, they are yielding 0.926, but a reversal pattern is forming. If we get a weekly candle close above 1%, we get a breakout, and we can see yields increase to the 1.33% zone. Remember: this move would mean that bonds are SELLING off. This means that money is LEAVING the bond market, and ENTERING the stock/equity markets (and perhaps other markets such as commodities etc).
Looking at the weekly set up, this move in yields is pointing to HIGHER stock markets. Again, my followers know this is what I have been predicting since markets began making new highs. There is nowhere to go for yield. Stock markets will continue higher until a black swan event occurs.
Now let us look at the flip side. Central Banks.
There is a currency war occurring between central banks, and the US Dollar and the Fed are winning. Why do nations want a weaker currency? Generally, the way to boost inflation and to increase exports to try to revive the economy was by weakening the currency. By the way, the classical economics definition of inflation is a weaker currency, meaning it takes MORE of a weaker currency to now buy something thereby increasing the price.
The European Central Bank (EBC) wants a weaker Euro. The Eurozone is largely an export union, a weaker Euro makes European exports competitive, and the ECB hopes this would boost the economy has more European exports means more profits which means more jobs etc. The difficulty is that the Euro does not weaken even when the ECB attempts to talk it down. They have increased their 'emergency' asset purchasing program to 1.85 Trillion Euro's (remember mainly to buy bonds to keep interest rates suppressed: buy bonds to drop rates)! Euro shot higher.
What option does the ECB have left? To cut interest rates deeper into the negative. Thereby making the interest rate differential between the EU and the USD larger in hopes that people would buy the USD against the Euro.
So now you are probably asking why would investors/traders still be buying European bonds when they are yielding negative meaning you will lose money for holding them for the 10 year or more term?
Bonds have now become a hold for capital appreciation rather than yield.
Remember, if central banks cut rates lower, the bonds that you were holding issued in the previous higher rate environment become more valuable than the bonds issued in the newly lower rate environment. Bond prices move up as rates drop lower!
Many are expecting this to happen next year. The ECB's next option in the currency war is to cut rates deeper into the negative in an attempt to weaken their currency. The Bank of England has made it no secret that they are also looking to go negative in 2021. Will the Federal Reserve follow tit for tat to counter the ECB? If the Canadian Loonie, the Australian Dollar, the Kiwi Dollar keep strengthening against the US Dollar, will the central banks in those nations cut into the negative to attempt to weaken their currencies? This is the currency war, and I believe money is already pricing this in. The move out of fiat: going into Bitcoin and Gold and other commodities.
Going back to our weekly chart of the Ten Year Yield, it is possible that this bottoming pattern reverses and moves lower if negative rates become a reality in the US. This would continue our long term down trend in bond yields. You see this clearly when I zoom out on the monthly chart:
To be quite frank, interest rates will have to be suppressed lower and forever. The world had a lot of debt before, but has even more due to the monetary and fiscal response against Covid. Money printing cannot and will not stop. The US passed a stimulus for $600, and talks are already beginning for a $2000 stimulus check. More will come.
Negative rates are appealing because it means that governments can service the debt at a lower rate. A weakening currency is also great for debtors because it means they can pay back debt with cheaper currency.
This is why in a very weird way many investors and traders are bullish bonds and see at least one more large move as bond prices increase due to more rate and deeper negative rate cuts. Insane but this is the kind of world we live in.
Once again, highlighting yesterday's post: this is why you want to be in Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and other hard assets. The trade will be out of fiat as traders anticipate the next moves by central banks in this currency war.
One more message I will leave you with. There are some that believe markets have a way to correct themselves. That even with all this central bank manipulation, prices and rates will correct to true value. This would imply double digit interest rates as bonds sell off heavy and interest rates spike. What I like to call the 'cuckening', and will be my sign to short stock markets hard. Now I am not saying this will happen anytime soon, but it is something to keep in mind. If such an event would occur, it would be the largest wealth transfer in history.
Time for new resolutions or do we mess it up more?U.S. Public Debt at 127.78% of GDP... How sustainable is it?
Overall, as the U.S. Federal Debt keeps on climbing, the S&P 500
keeps on climbing... It might be great for the U.S stock market
but it is very bad for present and future generations.
Federal Debt:
FRED:GFDEGDQ188S
S&P500:
CURRENCYCOM:US500 CURRENCYCOM:US500
The U.S. Public Debt is now at 127.78% of the U.S. GDP...
How sustainable is this trend?
There used to be lots of international buyers who were keen on
buying U.S Treasury Notes and U.S Treasury Bonds, such as China.
Will China still buy happily those financial products,
thereby financing this ever-increasing debt, set on an uncontrollable path?
As we now enter a phase where each country thinks of its own survival,
how will be willing to finance the debt of other countries?
It is becoming less and less likely.
International cooperation related to unsustainable borrowing, will trickle down considerably.
And the new reality of "to each his own" will become a renewed source of conflict,
domestically and globally.
Time for new resolutions or do we mess it up more?
François Normandeau
Institutional Research Director at ADX-BRIEFING
FLIR, somewhat undervalued technology stock on trend line watchFLIR Systems makes high-tech imaging systems. The stock has been selling off since its last earnings report, despite the fact that earnings and guidance both beat analyst estimates. Perhaps the selloff was because the company failed to issue forward guidance, or perhaps it was because free cash flow took an 18% hit last quarter and FLIR announced a 2.5% debt issuance in July. Regardless, FLIR now looks cheap, and sentiment has been improving lately.
Valuation
I expect that FLIR's dividend will yield 1.9% in the next 12 months. Its PEG is about 17, so not great, but not terrible. PSG ratio is 2.72. Again, not great, but not terrible. The real case for the stock being undervalued is that it's near the bottom of its three-year valuation range in P/E, P/S, and P/D terms. Despite the decrease in free cash flow, the company has a 77/100 financial health score from S&P Global. S&P Global also rates the stock 72/100 for its valuation, meaning the stock is solidly, but not extremely, undervalued. One reason I like FLIR is its patent portfolio. Patents granted are a leading indicator of earnings growth, and over the last three years, FLIR has been granted and average of 16 patents per billion dollars of current market cap. That very respectable number puts its patents-to-market cap ratio in the same league as Intel, which ranked 4th in the nation for total patents granted in 2019. In short, FLIR is a leading innovator for its market cap size.
Sentiment and Technicals
Analysts have been steadily upgrading FLIR, and it currently has an 8/10 Equity Starmine Summary Score. Options traders are quite bullish on the stock, with a put/call ratio of just 0.29. The technicals on FLIR are still negative, but improved slightly today to "sell" from yesterday's "strong sell" reading on both the daily and weekly charts. I'll be watching for a bullish cross of the trend line FLIR has formed since February as my buying signal.
SGN.V - Scorpio Gold looks primed for a move. Up or down?I decided to clean up the chart add a bit of context. To my eye, it looks like we have a big move ahead. Is this month's Federal Reserve meeting the catalyst for either direction? In any event, every dip in gold and miners have been bought. Let's see if the trend holds.
The myth of hyperinflation series- #3. Fed's effectivenessHow effective are Fed's monetary policies and tools?
Fed has three simple goals- Grow GDP, keep inflation rate steady and keep the unemployment rate low.
Some argue that Fed's perceived power over the market was exposed during several occasions-
#1. During the 2008 in the midst of sub-prime mortgage crisis, the market continued to plunge despite the Fed's efforts to bail out Fannie & Freddie and other financial institutions, implement the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and issue $800b stimulus package. The market finally stopped the bleeding in early March 2009.
#2. When Fed ended the QE3 in 2014 by announcing its attention to raise the interest rate and slash the Fed balance sheet, many people believed market would crash. Instead, market shot up to ATH in 2015.
#3. This year during the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, Fed started out by cutting the rate by half percentage to no avail. Afterwards, Fed intensified its intervention effort by reducing Fed fund rate to zero. Nonetheless, the market tanked another 15% before it hit the bottom.
One can point to the Fed-induced booming housing market in early 2000 as the major factor for the fast economic recovery after the Dot.com bubble and uses it as the counter example.
Market is driven by crowd sentiment, but crowd sentiment, which in turns, is partially driven by Fed's decision. It is a chicken and egg conundrum. They both influence each other, but the degree to which each influences one another is impossible to discern.
The safe conclusion to draw is that it would be overly optimistic to rely on Fed to get us out of the next financial crisis unscathed as it will take more and more stimulus package to get the job done. The best it can do is to mitigate the severity of damage.
Next, let's examine some of the conditions and criteria that are related to inflation.
Splitit ready yet to take over the IPO high? 2+The high that was created by the hype during its IPO is ready to get taken over by the hype that's created from a cashless society.
TA,
- MACD daily golden cross
- MACD volume increasing
- Demand volume increasing
- Broke out of bullish pennant
- Bullish Moving averages
Hoping for some consolidation at this level due to 2 massive supply tails at 1.915.
Watch for the break of 1.915 and 2.00
FA,
- BNPL hype
- Pent up demand over the weekend. No, really that's a thing now. People hate weekends cause the casino is only open from Monday-Friday.
- Visa, Mastercard, Stripe partnerships
- Founder Brad Paterson :Former VP marketing at Intuit, Director for emerging products ANZ for Visa, Head of new ventures for Paypal
- 460% revenue growth
- MSV 260% (Creating win-win situations for merchants and SPT)
- Gives the customer more options with 3,6,12,24 months unlike other BNPL's.
- Allows the use of existing credit without interest rates. Less credit risk and easier to integrate with Visa/Mastercard ?
Walmart looking bullish heading into earnings.Great price action, exactly what we want to see.
Pumped into earnings with incredible price action, and a strong follow-through the 20dma. Slightly under the 20dma would certainly be my stop.
I think there are much better positioned for breaking through this topping point here.
Earnings are on Tuesday. I think we see a beat.
Will be interesting to see if there is any risk off into earnings.
P/E 25.22
Debt/Eq 0.85
Profit Margin 2.8%
EPS this Y +114.9%
EPS Q/Q +5.2%
Insider Own 36.1%
Institution Own 30.8%
Short Float 0.91%
USD's pain is the WORLD's, and CRYPTO's gain !If we break below the black multi-year support line, and if we test it's underbelly successfully by bouncing off the white 0.25 level of the Schiff pitchfork, which we seem to have done already, we need to fall below the white 0.25 level and turn it into resistance.
If this happens and if we stay decisively below it, for several weeks, after multiple unsuccessful tries to break through and up.
In that case...
...the coming bitcoin bull-run will leave in the dust pretty much every bull-market we've ever seen in the financial world people will be stunned.
In the very long run, on a ten to thirty year horizon, the world is going to de-dollarize further. This is bad for the value of the dollar, and very good for the Emerging Market's massive volume of dollar-denominated loans, as the dollar will weaken, those loans will be way easier to finance.
A November to RememberThis is one of those charts that do not make people happy, because its not based on delusion. I keep looking through charts and saw people predicting $45,000 - 200,000 bitcoin. I ask, what are those charts based off? I have called them "just because" charts.. as the authors usually say "because BTC has continuously rallied in price". But you never hear of good, solid fundamentals on why Bitcoin will rally over 1000%. There is no ground breaking breakthroughs in Bitcoin tech. There is no new mass adoption or utilization.
Let's face the facts:
Bitcoin utilizes an exorbitant amount of energy.
Bitcoin has consistently followed the stock market moves (which is overdue for another March style selloff)
Crypto-Currency Market is in a massive bubble, with over 7,000 coins all competing with each other. They all claim to do what they do, faster, cheaper, and better than the next.
I predict that between August and November you will see the following:
Rise in unemployment.
Rise in defaults, bankruptcies, foreclosures.
Rise in civil unrest and crime.
The largest sell off of equities ever seen.
Facts:
The EuroZone entered the Covid Pandemic already in recession. The Bloc economically is far worse than the United States, and the Euro Zone will be the first to fall.
The United States economy is by far much worse than 2008, even matching or eclipsing Great Depression levels in certain sectors and statistics.
All countries have pressed Maximum Print on their fiat printers, and will cause inflation world wide. We may see a short period of deflation, followed by hyper-inflation. Keep in mind, it took Zimbabwe to go from $1 denomination to $100,000,000,000,000 notes in just one year.
Proposed changes to society and laws will have a negative impact on society, causing further division and unrest.
We have studied not only economics but also demographics. And all I can say at this point is, it's been fun, those who made money with Bitcoin and stocks, congrats. November will be a time like we who are alive have never experienced before. Demographics and current events point to a calamity soon to take place not only in the United States but around the world. We will be a part of a global depression, in which we will see major fiat currencies like the US Dollar, Euro, Yen, and Yuan fail. The elite at the World Economic Forum have called for a global reset on money. I believe we will see a new world monetary standard established out of the crisis, as fiat will be a thing of the passed. China has already digitized their Yuan. We will see digital money, but, it will NOT be crypto-currency. We believe that crypto has been the worlds largest test of digital money. The creator coincidentally happens to be unknown, but, based on how crypto required extensive identification requirements and taxation, we can safely say this was a united government creation.
Just keep an eye out, remember this chart and prediction. This isn't a doom and gloom chart, or prediction.. this was taking a step back, monitoring current and passed events, adding demographics into the mix, as well as seeing what world leaders are calling for and making this prediction. Take it with a grain of salt, out right refuse it, it doesn't matter. Watch and see!
Seasonal weakness has likely arrived as MACD makes bearish crossSeasonal investors who follow the "Stock Trader's Almanac" approach to investing use June's first downward cross on the MACD indicator as their signal to exit the market until October. We got that all-important signal this week, which suggests that we have now entered the period of seasonal weakness. My experience is that there's money to be made by investing in July, August, and September, but it takes a different mindset, because the dips are a lot bigger than they are the rest of the year, so you have to wait a little longer before buying dips.
I think we'll see some mid-month doldrums here in June, as coronavirus case counts continue to rise. Arizona is facing a crisis because it's out of ventilators and ICU beds, and Twin Cities, MN and Dallas, TX are on the verge of a similar crisis. LA County expects to run out of beds in 2-4 weeks. The public pressure is all toward reopening, but I suspect that some of the big liberal cities will actually tighten distancing rules this month to slow the growth of new cases.
A bigger problem for the stock market is that we're probably headed toward some kind of reckoning for debt. Deferment periods have lulled us all into a false sense of security, but those deferments are now ending, and we're seeing rising numbers of defaults, layoffs, and bankruptcies. I wouldn't be surprised to see a housing market crash or a weakening of the jobs recovery in the coming months. Unfortunately I can't guess when it might hit.
In early July we will probably see a rally, as Congress considers another stimulus bill, movie theaters look to reopen, and the first vaccine human trials get started. We could see more volatility in August as the first trial results come in. There's probably about a 75% chance that one of the vaccine candidates passes in human trials, in which case the market could rally very strongly into the end of the year.
The next two years will then be a period of seasonal weakness, as the first couple years of a presidential term usually are. The market will also be reckoning with the lingering effects of high unemployment and a loss of consumer confidence and consumer demand.
Debt cycle blowoff topThis is why fundamentals don't matter anymore.
Can this end well?
I think it's time to collect debt and use it to accumulate assets...
End game: USD currency fiat supply, Fed BS, US Public Debt RED DASHED PARABOLA IS ON LINEAR CHART. I will publish Log charts next.
These charts show end of 2023 something has to happen. I suspect that we will see a new structure/change to USD as the reserve currency and the next 30-40 year evolution of reserve currency as uncovered by Mike Malone in hidden secrets of Money.
Very very bullish.Hello, spirit of Robert Mugabe here.
I have to congratulate Mister Donald Trump.
He has managed to hurt the american citizen without them noticing that he did, because they do not learn economy & finance at school and do not care.
What an amazing sneaky politician! As the american people get more angry, and since they are financially illetarate and do not understand how the scam works, they will vote for him, hey he is giving free stuff and convinced people he fixed the economy before the "crisis that is 100% caused by the virus".
I know Mister Donald took example on me, everytime anything was bad I blamed it on the west, what he does is he blames every thing on the political west meaning the left. Haha good one, yes people fall for this!
Let's look at germany & century ago. The debt to gdp started at 20% in 1914 then went up and by 1923 it had ballooned to 180% thanks to the amazing Baron Rothschild which was running the private central bank, supported by german politicians. The debt stayed up there until 1933 when Adolf Hitler got elected, he arrested the Baron, and the debt declined from the year he took office. This allowed Adolf to gain alot of power and he was able to satisfy his lust for torturing & killing millions of poles homesexual jews jehova witnesses etc, as well as start a war with literally all of europe.
The left is even starting to like Trump as he is doing very bad decisions that they really love. He actually might able to start a bipartisan alliance, the nationalists and the socialists! I do not think I have to explain what this means.
A relief package is not bad, it is one of the tools to fight a crisis.
To many, Trump was supposed to be the hero, and after flattening the debt, it was supposed to revert, like during the clinton era.
But now, if the banking cartel - having dozens of exchanges with the governemnent on a daily - is to be believed, they are going to print endlessly!
The USA are ranked 4 as the worse Gini coefficient in the world, after taxes and everything, with Mexico Chile and Turkey above them (only looking at the 34 world roughly developped nations). The Netherlands & France are doing pretty well in this list at rank 21 & 22.
This is the bottom of the list:
25 Hungary
26 Austria
27 Belgium
28 Finland
29 Sweden
30 Slovak Republic
31 Czech Republic
32 Norway
33 Denmark
34 Slovenia
So if you are wealthy and would like to not get your head cut off when the people revolt, I would strongly recommend moving to one of those in the future, France and the Netherlands are also ok in my opinion, France had their yellow vest episodes, workers tore an airline boss clothes, but this is actually safety i believe.
First the yellow vests revolted against an unfair tax based on the climate hoax which no one with common sense can believe in (there is 12 years left for the past 30).
And the fact that the french revolts against greedy corporate people means it is unlikely the situation can worsen to a point where people want blood! The banking cartel will not have the opportunity to do what they do best.
Now if NA decides to nuke europe we are done but where can we be sure to be safe?
So about the list (Mugabe here), of course we african dictators do not reveal our numbers post taxes, but pre taxes & benefits the CIA & other organisations have managed to get hold of them.
The World Bank & CIA do not have the exact same numbers but basically it is the same, the ranking is dominated by neighbourg collegues of mine in South Africa & Lesotho.
The USA are only ranked 27 out of 178 countries, behind all the "fair socialist nations" of Africa & South America ;)
Haha the electorate is either too lazy or too stupid to notice that all the "fair socialist nations" are the ones the most unfair ;)
As Ford said "It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."
Now let's look at a very interesting list. THE WEALTH GINI! (2018) (lower is better)
At the same time, european & asian (you know which ones obviously) countries & the USA are on top of the HDI.
Here is the 2018 inequality-adjusted HDI (higher is better):
Americans don't have it that bad, but I don't think they want to be behind Poland, and fairness is a big factor, people can deal with poverty if that's the way things are, they don't want to be asked to tighten their belts, stay locked in small appartment during confinment, while underserving idiots that got rich by some miracle are relaxing on their huge yacht or giant mansion telling them to suffer in silence.
Japan has the highest debt to gdp in the world, the gov debt to gdp is at over 200% I don't even know exactly, BUT they have the biggest cash reverse in the world (I think), they have deflation and huge savings, they caused the AUDJPY huge rally, they caused (I speculate) the Bitcoin mega rally of 2017.
They can afford to print print print take huge debt and force inflation aggressively if this is how things are.
The majority of americans live paycheck to paycheck can barely afford rent, and their standard of living has crumbled tremendously.
The USA has been able to print money without total collapse because they have a the world reserve currency which is in high demand, but they push it!
If you want to research this "Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons"
Income inequality:
And the standard of living chart is simple:
The USA are going for the good old days of the 30s I see :)
I hope the US cartel is bluffing. I have no confidence in them and sure won't invest.
I don't even think I want to short.
I don't really trade indices anyway, they are central to everything so I end up spending more time on this than FX & Commodities (I am very active with the USD thought and all of this obviously impacts it very directly).
Climate alarmists have a point: humans are very good at reacting in hindsight & very good at postponing issues "we'll deal with it later" let it grow let it grow like a cancer.
Maybe the dismantelement of europe is very soon and this will cause investors to flock to the USD, allowing them to print print print and dump on foreigners?
But just watching the FED chairmans talk they sound like complete madmen, honestly even Mugabe wasn't like this. If they are not bluffing and go full insane... yikes...
I already said much for a single idea (and just scratched the surface). History keeps repeating itself, so I suggest learning more about Zimbabwe there are alot of different fundamentals, but the root, the heart of the matter is the same (IF the USA keeps going the same way & there isn't a huge demand for USD for some reason - if they can print 500 trillion USD without devaluing the currency a ton and use this imaginary money to buy real goods & services from other countries well then gg for them they scammed the world).
Only efficient way I know to survive is watch the world evolve like a hawk (and in my case go as far as to do active trading)! People "just want to mind their own business".
Well this is planet earth, this is life, you don't get to just mind your own business and relax.
If you were in the jungle, infested of tigers and crocodiles would you just mind your own business?
Would you go for a swim in hippo territory? I think not. Those that "mind their own business" get scammed and end up the biggest losers.
The Rothschilds watched very carefully the rise of national socialism in germany and they got away early!
The herd of jews got their weapons consficated by Hitler, and started trying to all migrate out of the country but it was not possible!
And they were not enough to fight back. Entire boats got rejected at US ports.
Not saying things will be that bad (not impossible thought), but I'd rather be careful and alive than not have a worry in the world and die.
Being aware of this and "worrying" actually allows me to not be too worried (also huge ego & feelings of invicibility helps).
BTCbugs which so didn't read this, would enjoy knowing that Zimbabweans got so desperate they bought Bitcoins aggressively.
$DXY a signal for corporate bonds? NASDAQ:VCLT INDEX:DXY
I think there is some negative relation between $DXY and $VCLT.
Therefore watch out what the $DXY is doing Since it seems that when it goes up $VCLT goes down.
Dollar strength not good for long term corporate bonds it seems.
I imagine that it's because the market goes into short term treasury or longterm government bonds and avoids corporate bonds.
if anyone knows more let me know in the comments.
Rabbi.