S&P500 - Yellen, Start The Printing Press No liquidity, no volatility, Debt ceiling...
Long Term Short
Debt
DollarIndex Dangerous test of support - Things are getting dicyWill the Dollarindex manage to hold this crucial level or will it continue down from hitting the top of its long term downtrend channel ( formed since 80's )
XAU/USD 3x divergence to resistance over 1260 or down -> 5th legThis is not a clear sell. Even tho the price has been around 1292-1295 this time around there are some room for it to continue higher.
If price falls down below 1260 and through the 7 year triangle line that then becomes resistance again --> strong sell signal to the 5th leg at 1200ish.
Trump would be in big trouble if the stock market crashed so he will do everything he can to prolong the process. In late september the balance sheet/debt ceiling trouble is coming up.
Unrealized Projection of the US Outstanding Debt History (alarm)US Outstanding Debt History
Since 1790 (data from quandl)
Gold could bounce higher - Dollar/debt bubbles everywhere How long can they manipulate the market before a new inevitable monetary system arrises from a complete wipe out?
Eur Usd long 09-03-2017hello dear traders & welcome to growing Forex
All eyes on M.Draghi. As of tomorrow the EU said that all the 28 countries economy are growing at a faster rate from the US. Still political uncertainty in Europe its about Greece debt its about France elections it looks like Germany is all alone. Germany minister Wolfsgang said Germany alone cant handle the pressure from the US. For the US tomorrow comes the NFP & later the interest rate decision.Looks Like the pair is trading in a consolidation where a boast is needed to confirm a trend.
$NTFU breaks channel. Heads higher on elimination of all debt.Latest news www.otcmarkets.com . With the removal of all debt, shares of $NTFU popped today after trading in a fairly tight channel throughout the month. This has traded over $2/sh recently and I expect to see us back in that range near term as the company continues to execute its business plan.
Oil Price stress on Banks with energy exposureOil price recovery has been mostly driven by USD related factors and so the fundamentals are still not where they need to be and the chronic oversupply continues. The banks with the largest energy debt exposure have felt the squeeze as a result and remain relatively risky.
This chart shows the performance of the banks with the largest declared Energy debt exposure in the US vs the XLF ETF and wider S&P 500 Index, the backdrop is the Oil price.
Short Petrobras based on an unsustainable rallyFundamentals
Petrobras has seen an 80% rally through March, which is unsustainable. The reason for this is because the rally is based on the possible [ impeachment of president Dilma Rousseff, whose policies adversely affected the Brazilian oil market. While this is good news for the Brazilian oil company, the fundamentals of the company simply do not fit with such a rally.
It still has the largest debt level in the entire oil industry at about £75 billion; it will continue to have legal costs incurred from a corruption scandal; oil prices are still too low to be strongly profitable, and in my opinion will move lower to about $30, which will further fuel this rally to be pared.
Technicals
The stock price has hit a very strong level of resistance in the 4.50 and 4.75 price range, as indicated by the horizontal black lines, and is likely to rebound off this.
There has also been very strong bearish divergence on the RSI, which is all indicated by the thin black arrows.
High Yield in Trouble... AgainI want to start this year with a market I have been watching closely recently, and for good reason. The HYG, which is the most liquid high yield corporate bond exchange traded fund, has taken a beating over the past few months and looks ready to make another move lower. Not only is this trade attractive from a technical perspective, but the fundamentals are on our side as well given rates are poised to move higher this year.
We can see on the hourly chart below that a breakout over 81 failed to materialize and we are now coming off of near term resistance on a pivot bar. Additionally the momentum indicators are showing more room for downward movement, while volume profile needs to be filled in to the downside.
Based on the technicals, I would like to get short at current levels with a stop up at the bottom of the supply area at 80.68 and a target of 79.00 (3:1 r/r). I will give this trade no more than a week.
@AKWAnalytics
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US DEBT COST IS AT HISTORIC LOWSDue to continuous demand for US Treasury securities over the last 30 years and due to global deflationary pressures, triggered by globalization (cost optimization of global businesses) - the yields of 10 and 30 year Notes continue to decline along their long term descending trend line
The result of such a development - is the current cost of US debt is lower than ever, which in turn allows larger external debt to be held by the States.
As one can see in Monthly Treasury Statement - Net interest is the lowest type of Outlays in the US Budget
higgs.rghost.ru
(scource: www.fiscal.treasury.gov)
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US REAL DEBT DOUBLED SINCE 2009US debt to foreign investors has doubled in volume since the start of 2009 (which was the height of the financial crisis). This indicates that despite the fact that the crisis occurred and was initiated in the US, the demand for their debt not only did not vanish - it actually spiked. In mu humble opinion, it is a very strong indicator of the actual strength of US economy.
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Please note, that the level of debt that US actually owns to the rest of the world is much lower than 100% of GDP. Actually, as long as the debt COST is affordable (and it is affordable now) - debt is not much of a problem.
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For more detailed info (very interesting stuff), please see: www.treasury.gov
