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Debtbubble

End Game: Linear charts of USD currency, Fed BS, US DebtThese (linear) charts show end of 2023 something has to happen. I suspect that we will see a new structure/change to USD as the reserve currency and the next 30-40 year evolution of reserve currency as uncovered by Mike Malone in hidden secrets of Money. Look at the exponential growth of the USD currency supply shown on the left, the fed balance sheet in the center, and the US public debt on the right. There is an asymptotical rise limit on a linear chart by end of 2023. Thus I suspect something will have to give, which if I had to speculate will be the next evolution I the typical 30-40 year cycle of reserve currency change.
FRED:GFDEBTN
by DropDead_Fed
End Game: Log charts of USD currency, Fed BS, US DebtLOGARITHMIC CHARTS: These charts show end of 2023 something has to happen. I suspect that we will see a new structure/change to USD as the reserve currency and the next 30-40 year evolution of reserve currency as uncovered by Mike Malone in hidden secrets of Money. Look at the exponential growth of the USD currency supply shown on the left, the fed balance sheet in the center, and the US public debt on the right. There is an asymptotical rise limit on a linear chart by end of 2023. Thus I suspect something will have to give, which if I had to speculate will be the next evolution I the typical 30-40 year cycle of reserve currency change.
M
by DropDead_Fed
Accelerating Inflation is the Elephant in the Room Back in early October I posted a commodities chart. On that chart I shared my thesis that Gold's 6-year breakout in May would retest and commodities would follow on the next leg up. I later posted that "unofficial QE would add fuel into inflationary forces". With Gold breaking out of its healthy correction, inflation hitting 9-year highs, the Fed saying they will not raise rates until they see and significant and sustained increase in inflation and the fundamentals deteriorating, I see the potential for a huge surge in inflation in 2020 and 2021. Especially because its the trade that is most unhedged. Most investors are prepared for deflation - aka if stocks and real estate fall. Almost none are prepared for a rally in inflation, falling dollar, and surging commodities. Strong breakout in TIP with very strong volume. The TIP Bond ETF is a way to hedge yourself against rising inflation and as a way to visualize inflation sentiments in the market. Notice the 3 lows at support coincided with Gold's low in 2013, generational low in 2015, and then in late 2018 when the Fed was being very hawkish, talking about autopilot QT and 4 rate hikes in 2019. Additionally, the moving averages and volume are showing there's more room for growth. The more I look at the facts, rates of change, and the charts, the more I'm convinced the US dollar simply cannot maintain its current level. The Dollar has been flat at 96-97 in 2019, which is impressive given all that has happened. Fed promising to not raise rates until we see a significant and sustained rise in inflation. Federal debt is growing at an unsustainable rate. All-time high twin budget deficits. Additionally, the Fed did a massive U-turn and provided massive liquidity to the market in 2019 due to the 3 rate cuts and QE on emergency levels. Silent QE is growing faster than during official QE. The fiscal stimulus from record spending and tax cuts plus the massive monetary stimulus has helped push us to 9-year highs in rate of change for CPI inflation. Since Q4 2018, Gold has increased from 1180 to 1550 with a high correlation to the TIPS ETF and gold stocks have outperformed the S&P500. The inflation move has already started and few are seeing it, but most investors remain oblivious or unprepared for a significant and sustained increase in inflation. With the rate of change for inflation rising and the relevant fundamentals deteriorating and 2020 being an election year for Trump, this inflation or "reflation" trend that began in Q4 of 2018 looks to pick up speed in 2020. The Fed wants a cheaper dollar to satisfy the Repo market and Trump wants a cheaper dollar to "stimulate" the economy enough to get reelected. With these strong fundamental drivers and technical confirmations, look for the DXY to continue to build a downward trend as it heads to 93 and lower. Those that think central banks can do QE forever without creating inflation and devaluing the currency are wrong. Commodities have shown signs of life at times over the last few months - platinum, silver, copper, some agriculture. I just want to reiterate - with the fundamentals worsening and the rate of change for inflation increasing - in addition to a break out on the TIP chart, highly bullish breakouts in Gold, breakout in Feds balance sheet, and breakout in government spending- there's a good chance we can get big surges in inflation assets in 2020 and 2021. Things to watch out for: - Pay close attention to interest rates and the Fed. The better we can understand the Fed's intentions the better we can trade and invest accordingly. - The Fed has said they will not raise rates until they see significant and sustained inflation. Keep an eye on how fast inflation rises. If inflation surges and the Fed doesn't hike and potentially cuts, gold and commodities will fly. - The "market" needs debt expansion to keep itself sustained. Keeping rates flat and doing a certain amount of QE per month will eventually be insufficient to keep stocks and bonds propped up and rates suppressed. Over the next 6-12 months keep an eye on the Fed's operations, any changes or growth, and any liquidity crunches. The Fed may front-run any liquidity crunch by announcing an official QE program. This is bullish Gold. Watch what they do. If they are slow to act or become hawkish, they could deflate the bubble. - Watch the price action and trend shifts on the DXY.
AMEX:TIPLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
9
S&P500 History: 1987 and 1995 Parabolic AttemptsIn July of 1982 the S&P 500 bottomed and began its next bull market. It made a parabolic attempt in 1987 but was smashed down. Notice how orderly and well-respected the 13-year rising trendlines were. The SPX then made a 2nd parabolic attempt in 1995 but this time it was successful and lasted for 5 years. I'm sharing these analyses of previous parabolas in the S&P500 because it is extremely useful for comparison to today's 2009-2020 expansion in the SPX. The SPX at present is making a 2nd parabolic attempt and this one looks a lot more convincing. Its good to remember that bubbles can grow to unimaginable sizes and last for years. Also notice on the top chart how a rather significant decrease in the Federal Funds Rate correlates to expansions in the S&P 500 Like and Follow to see my 1900-1943 expansion -> unsustainable parabola in the S&P500 and a look at the present 2009-2020 expansion and how that relates to monetary policy and the gold and silver markets
SP:SPXLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
2
Silver Junior Miner Value Hunting - SPA / SPAZFSpanish mountain has very little debt and is highly leveraged to the price of silver. Very little downside here, tons of mid & long-term upside potential. Intrinsically undervalued company & assets. They're sitting on a literal mountain of silver trading well below their 2016 peak. Conservatively I see SPA / SPAZF increasing 150% in 2020. All this requires is SPA getting back to its 2016 high when silver was at $19. If we get $21 or $25 silver, which I believe is highly likely in 2020, then a 1.5 bagger in Spanish Mountain is pretty much guaranteed. It could fall from 9 cents to 6 or 5.5 cents, which is a 30-40% loss, and it could easily rise 150%. That's an extremely favorable risk-reward. If silver were to rise to $30, SPA could rise 400%. 50$ silver would give us close to 1000% gain in SPA. And eventually, when we get 3 digit silver. Whether that's $100 silver or $500 silver. Juniors such as Spanish Mountain could become 20-100x baggers. Think long-term ;)
TSXV:SPALong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1
AUD/USDThis is just to track my purchase of AUD today. I expect it to appreciate vs the EUR and USD over the coming months; Australia is significantly exposed to commodity prices, which as showing signs of recovery, and Australia has government debt at lower levels than most of the rest of the OECD (I have seen % levels ranging fro 40.5 to 66% - depending on the source) esp Canada, the U.S., U.K, and Japan and will be better positioned to react in a global economic downturn. Just reading an interesting report based on a late 2018 survey of 140+ financial advisors (www.invesco.com.au). At that time 77% expected the markets to change direction within the following 2 years. I find it interesting that stats.oecd.org does not update publicly available government debt levels any more. The number 1 concern was sovereign debt, #4 corporate debt levels, #5 consumer debt levels, #2 & 3 were an emerging market crisis and china debt levels respectively. 4 out of the top 5 reasons for an expected downturn were explicitly based on excessive debt levels (of course it could be 5/5 as an emerging market crisis is expected to be caused by debt levels also). Despite my general aversion to fiat currencies I have chosen AUD notes as a worthwhile, relatively safe, and liquid hedge. Enjoy and protect those funds everyone
Long
by flyinkiwi10
The American dream is a nightmare - Trump cool aid running out.In this screencast I review briefly some headline issues that point to deep troubles affecting the American economy. I look at the Dow Transportation Index which appears to be leading Wall Street in a southward direction. My list of troubles for America is not exhaustive - so I may well have missed something of greater importance. Do share other facts if you know more. If others know of reasons for optimism on the US Economy I would be willing to learn more. So far, I've not been able to find anything of true substance to support optimism. This post is compliant with Tradingview's house rules on text-based posts.
Education
by Captain_Walker
5
Month-End Continuation & MoreSame idea as in previous chart. This is zoomed in to show the main points of resistance. 2 areas of concern with rising wedge in these recent times and stretched RSI. Very likely turnaround point in the next week or so. If it breaks past the fib line, then there will assuredly be snubbing right at the resistance line set by the previous peaks. The overall trend aims downward still just with greater range for volatility. The broad chart shows areas of potential bounce from the long term trends set from the previous 10-20 years. Intruding beneath these points will violate extremely long term sets of support. 2 are depicted here from the 'line 1' and 'line 2'. I'm making a "why not" prediction as far as the timing with the green line I'd crudely drawn in our future. Seems as though that historically, the steeper climbs give steeper falls, and the more gradual inclines will mirror a gradual descent. We are in an era of just the opposite. Short periods of time with rapid ascent. So, I'd imagine just the same with the coming down from our highest high at nearly 27,000 pts for the DJI. Though I have no crystal ball, and I could be painfully wrong, this seems passable to me. Consumers still have the power to extend themselves for longer than we can predict, and the mere culture of my country can exhaust every bit of leverage capacity in ways not seen before. It very well could be that we climb out of these slows and right up past the highs to reclaim new territory and keep this sick machine turning for another half-decade, and I would be equally unsurprised, but I have no doubt that what we are doing now has incredible consequences.
DJ:DJIShort
by thehoplite
Stocks, Dollars, and GoldContinuing my look at currency value (see ), here's several ways of looking at "How much is that asset worth?" The green/red price bars are the S&P 500 . The green line is M2 money velocity , one measure of value and dilution of the US dollar. It's basically how many times our GDP could "buy" our money supply . It's interesting to notice how public sentiment about national debt aligns with this index. I'm not taking a stance on that policy, just noticing that shortly after a presidential campaign made had the public up in arms about national debt, the value of money, as measured by M2V, rose, as did the market. Conversely, shortly after a later campaign that had the public up in arms about government surplus, that same measure went down. The hypothesis I'm trying on is, does money velocity--the ratio of money to goods--and everything that says about the value of US Dollars correlate with trend changes in the equity markets? The market dip that started in late 2000 would put equity investors entering at that time in a loss they wouldn't recoup, if they stayed in the markets, until mid 2007. By that time, money velocity had been trending down for over a year, and very quickly the market dipped again, causing losses that a long-term position wouldn't recover until Q1 2013. So far, M2V seems a fair predictor of market turns, but this doesn't hold true after the 2008 crash of the housing and mortgage bubble. Money velocity continues down, but the market takes off. Some would argue that a bigger crash is setting up; others, that the correlation is meaningless. What's a safe investor to do? How about gold? I've added gold as the yellow line in the chart. This isn't the actual price (spot price) of gold, because I couldn't find that symbol on TradingView. Instead it's the nearest contract, the price traders think gold will have in the near future. I add gold to the chart because it's often seen as a safe haven against market and currency crashes, and because gold maven Adam Baratta writes about the sort of money supply issues I've written about in his 2018 book, Gold is a Better Way . It's an interesting (and very bearish) look at the equity and debt markets--just remember it's written by someone who sells gold and whose final words in the last chapter of his latest book are, in bold, "Buy Gold Now." What I'm asking myself is, if I've got a lot of retirement savings in equities and I'm getting nervous about the stock market, how do I play it safe for awhile? Notice how gold did better than the SP500 during the latest crashes. That sounds promising...until you look at how it also trended positively with stocks during their recoveries. If you're looking for a non-correlated asset, this doesn't look like it. Instead it looks like a way to miss out on whatever benefits current fiscal policy and market bias are giving--note how gold missed out on the S&P's gains once it was back at pre-2008 levels.
SP:SPXEducation
by bradobro
Is th NASDAQ, S&P and Economy to experience a HUGE reset soon? This is the NASDAQ graph ranging back from the late 1980's. We are due for a HUGE market correction. Prepare for one of the worst financial and economic crashes the U.S. has ever experienced with the next year or 2. We will see a lot of market upside for the next few months - year. Once this over extended market completes its cycle, phase 5 should take place and as fast and extreme as it went up. Remember that when President Obama was first elected in 2008, the U.S. debt was approx. $8 Trillion. We are currently at about $21.3 Trillion in debt today.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by KennySniper
5
Gold still looks cheap, when we look at it this wayBeware the appearance of the wave lengths as this is a semi-log chart. As far as historic data allows it, I can count the rallies as impulsive. From the bottom of the chart (251.90) up to I (1920.70), there are $ 1’668.80. Multiplying this by 1.618 ($ 2’700), and adding them to the bottom of II (1046.33), we find a minimum target for wave III at $ 3’746 ! On a shorter term basis let’s do the same to find the minimum target for wave 3. As wave 1 equals $ 328.71, multiplying this by 1.618 (531.85) and adding them to the bottom of wave 2 (1122.57), we find 1’654. Buying now at 1’346 with stop/loss at 1’269 (below top of what I consider to be a wave i) with target at 3’690. Once 1’654 is reached, trail the stop/loss from 1’269 to breakeven (the top of wave 1 at 1’375 shouldn’t be overlapped by the future wave 4). Initial reward/risk ratio close to 31. Once the stop/loss is trailed there will be no risk of loss anymore. So people still not long Gold don’t have missed the train yet, there is still plenty of potential upwards I think. Better to buy it physically and vs USD though as safe haven. As the proverb says: invest 10 % of your portfolio and hope it goes down. Of course it is not real to consider selling on stop/loss a physical position, only because of the spread, so start with CFDs. If the following levels are taken out, my scenario will take shape: 1’532 and 1’921. Start switching your CFDs for physical as this would not be a good sign for the economy.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by montanniv