Bitcoin 2023 nding WaysAs of now, Bitcoin is priced at $42,815, accompanied by a 24-hour trading volume of $24 billion. Its market capitalization stands at $843 billion, commanding 54% of the market share. In the past 24 hours, BTC has encountered a 0.96% decrease in price. With a circulating supply of 19.46 million BTC out of a maximum possible supply of 21 million BTC.
Bitcoin's recent attempt to breach the $44,000 resistance faced selling pressure, triggering a decline in its value. Currently, resistance is noted at $44,982, while support for BTC/USD is established at $41,784. The analysis for December 26 indicates that bears have initiated a robust selling pressure, eroding buyer confidence around the $44,000 mark. Consequently, BTC is experiencing a significant decline, setting the stage for a downward correction.
Examining the 1-day chart reveals a diminishing buying demand for Bitcoin as it grapples with this decline in value. Bio for more..................
December
A Merry Bitcoin Xmas 12 statistics for 12 historical Decembers:
December Marks pretty pivotable points in Bitcoin history. Typically the 19th-31st of December marks some decent moves, with either a slight pause for continuation or a major reversal.
12 statistics for 12 historical Decembers:
- AVG. Overall Returns +15.26%
- AVG. Positive Returns +52.73%
- AVG. Negative Returns -28.45%
- 7/12 saw Red candle closes, 5/12 saw Green. (2023 will likely be 6/12)
- 6/12 saw January close lower than Dec, whilst 6/12 did not.
- 4/12 we never saw Dec low prices again.
- 4/12 proceeded with a Jan-Feb monthly retraces (didn't close < Dec), whilst 4/12 continued higher.
- 4/12 saw lower prices proceeding more than 6 months.
- 3/12 were in mid bull markets (wave 3)
- 2/12 marked ATH's and to date 2/12 marked ATL's.
- 1/12 saw sideways action for 4 consecutive months
- 1/12 marked false low reversal signal (COVID)
In summary, for the 13th December close given the timing of cycles, this does mark a midterm turning point between cycles. Generally, at this point, it is more probable for a slight -25% retrace before continuation. Statistics on lower Dec ratios (<4/12) would suggest that in Q1 2024 we may just get the dip, but for how long will the Santa Rally continue? $48-50k high seems very likely but a close < FWB:31K in the coming months on the retrace would prove something else is at play.
Sorry for rez, here is a better screenshot
Unlocking Opportunities: Maximizing Dec. Gains Beyond TradingUnlocking Opportunities: Maximizing December Gains Beyond Trading
Introduction:
As December unfolds and the year draws to a close, it's not uncommon for traders to take a step back and assess their performance. The trading landscape experiences a shift, with many prominent investors winding down for the year, paving the way for unique opportunities for those who approach the market strategically. In this blog post, we'll explore how traders can benefit from the distinctive conditions of December, leveraging the year-end dynamics to refine their trading strategies and set the stage for success in the upcoming year.
1. Reflect on the Year:
Before diving into the specific opportunities December presents, take a moment to reflect on your trading journey throughout the year. Consider the overall performance of your trades, taking note of both successes and setbacks. This reflection is a crucial first step in understanding your strengths and weaknesses as a trader.
Take a comprehensive look at your trading performance throughout the year. Consider the following aspects:
Trade Outcomes: Evaluate the overall success of your trades. Identify the ones that were profitable and those that resulted in losses.
Market Conditions: Examine how your strategies performed under various market conditions. Note any patterns in your trading success or challenges during specific market trends.
As an example; I examine my trading performance throughout the year. I did observe that my swing trading strategy worked well during trending markets but struggled during choppy, sideways conditions. This reflection prompts me to consider adjustments to my strategy to better navigate varying market conditions.
2. Evaluate Pros and Cons:
Identify the pros and cons of your trading strategies over the past year. What worked well for you, and what didn't? Analyzing these aspects can help you fine-tune your approach, building on your strengths and addressing any weaknesses. Take note of the market conditions under which your strategies excelled or faltered.
Dig deeper into the strengths and weaknesses of your trading strategies:
Successful Strategies: Identify the aspects of your trading approach that worked well. This could include specific indicators, timeframes, or types of assets that consistently yielded positive results.
Challenges Faced: Analyze the reasons behind unsuccessful trades. Pinpoint any recurring issues, whether they are related to strategy execution, risk management, or market analysis.
Adaptability: Ask yourself, "Is your strategy working for you?" If there's discomfort or a sense that your current strategy is not aligning with your trading goals, consider your options:
- Explore New Strategies: Are you considering a shift in strategy? Perhaps there's a new approach or methodology that better suits your risk tolerance and market outlook.
- Give More Time: Alternatively, are you planning to invest more time in your existing strategy? Sometimes, patience and fine-tuning can enhance the effectiveness of a proven approach.
As an Example; I identified that my strengths lie in thorough technical analysis but acknowledges a weakness in managing emotions during periods of heightened volatility. I realized that implementing stricter risk management protocols could help mitigate losses during turbulent market phases.
3. Journal Your Trades:
If you haven't already, start journaling your trades. Documenting your trading activities provides valuable insights into your decision-making process. Review your trades and identify patterns, both in successful and unsuccessful scenarios. What emotions were at play during specific trades? This self-awareness can be a powerful tool for refining your trading psychology.
Initiate or revisit your trading journal, documenting each trade along with additional details:
Decision-Making Process: Record the factors influencing your decisions for each trade. This includes technical and fundamental analysis, as well as any emotional factors that may have played a role.
Emotional Reflection: Explore the emotional aspect of your trading. Note instances of fear, greed, or overconfidence. Understanding your emotional responses can help you make more informed decisions in the future.
As an Example; I started a detailed trading journal, recording the rationale behind each trade and the emotions I’d experienced. Upon review, I noticed that I tend to become overly cautious during winning streaks, leading me to exit profitable trades prematurely. This awareness prompts me to work on maintaining discipline during profitable runs.
4. Statistical Analysis:
Dig deeper into the statistics of your trades. Examine metrics such as win-loss ratio, average gain/loss, and drawdowns. These quantitative measures can offer a more objective view of your performance, helping you identify areas for improvement. Look for patterns in your trading data and consider how adjustments to your strategy might enhance overall profitability.
Delve into the quantitative aspects of your trading performance:
Win-Loss Ratio: Calculate the ratio of your winning trades to losing trades. A higher ratio indicates more successful trades.
Average Gain/Loss: Evaluate the average profit and loss per trade. This metric helps you gauge the effectiveness of your profit-taking and stop-loss strategies.
Drawdowns: Identify periods of significant drawdown. Understanding these downturns is crucial for risk management and improving overall stability.
As an Example; I analyze my trading statistics and discovered that while my win rate is respectable, I experience larger drawdowns than what is comfortable for me. I decided to adjust my position sizing to limit the impact of losing streaks on my overall portfolio.
5. Spend Time in Backtesting:
Utilize the quieter period of December to engage in thorough backtesting:
Strategy Validation: Test your strategies against historical data to validate their efficacy. Identify any potential adjustments needed to align with current market conditions.
As an Example; Taking advantage of the quieter December market, I dedicate time to backtesting. I test variations of strategies against historical data, identifying adjustments that improve performance. This process gives me the confidence to implement refinements in the live market.
6. Set Goals for the New Year:
As you assess your trading performance, set clear and realistic goals for the upcoming year. Define what you aim to achieve, whether it's improving your win rate, reducing drawdowns, or exploring new trading opportunities. Establishing these objectives provides a roadmap for your trading journey in the year ahead.
Establish clear and actionable goals for the upcoming year:
Specific Objectives: Define precise objectives such as achieving a target percentage return, improving risk-adjusted returns, or expanding your trading skill set.
Realistic Targets: Ensure your goals are realistic and achievable within a given timeframe. Unrealistic expectations can lead to frustration and poor decision-making.
As an Example; Reflecting on past years, I acknowledged that setting overly ambitious goals led to frustration. This year, I’d set realistic expectations, aiming for a modest increase in overall profitability. This approach allows me to focus on consistent improvement without the undue pressure of reaching unrealistic targets.
Overall:
December offers a unique window for traders to step back from active trading, assess their performance, and strategically plan for the future. By leveraging this period of reduced market activity, traders can gain valuable insights, refine their strategies, and set achievable goals for the upcoming year. Make the most of this opportune moment to position yourself for success in your trading endeavors.
Overview of Cryptocurrency Volatility - 1M, December, 2022.Analysis of the volatility index in December. Time interval - 1 month.
Currency - USDT or equivalent to BUSD .
The selection is carried out according to the lists of cryptocurrencies that are represented on the spot and futures markets, with a total of more than a hundred coins.
Top 15 Coins (December):
1. BNX /usdt - 49.14% (High&Low: 65.79%)
2. MASK /usdt - 47.33% (High&Low: 61.79%)
3. WAVES /usdt - 44.89% (High&Low: 55.32%)
4. ANC /busd - 44.34% (High&Low: 67.58%)
5. FLOW /usdt - 42.31% (High&Low: 46.47%)
6. GMT /usdt - 41.27% (High&Low: 51.34%)
7. REN /usdt - 40.58% (High&Low: 52.78%)
8. LPT /usdt - 39.79% (High&Low: 53.85%)
9. CHZ /usdt - 39.47% (High&Low: 47.98%)
10. DYDX /usdt - 37.51% (High&Low: 52.18%)
11. SUSHI /usdt - 37.01% (High&Low: 39.06%)
12. HNT /busd - 36.51% (High&Low: 40.66% )
13. AR /usdt - 36.33% (High&Low: 39.32%)
14. KNC /usdt - 36.13% (High&Low: 37.96%)
15. GALA /usdt - 35.85% (High&Low: 48.96%)
The coin showed the worst result: DGB /usdt - 0.13% (High&Low: 47.46%).
Full list of analyzed coins: www.tradingview.com
Analysis information for all coins: docs.google.com
Thanks for your attention!
Overview of Cryptocurrency Volatility - 1D, December, 2022.Analysis of the volatility index in December. Time interval - 1 day.
Currency - USDT or equivalent to BUSD .
The selection is carried out according to the lists of cryptocurrencies that are represented on the spot and futures markets, with a total of more than a hundred coins.
Top 15 Coins (1 day):
1. LEVER /busd - 251.2% (High&Low: 635.82%)
2. BNX /usdt - 183.02% (High&Low: 343.03%)
3. ANC /busd - 176.6% (High&Low: 411.33%)
4. HNT /busd - 136.36% (High&Low: 278.36%)
5. MASK /usdt - 132.25% (High&Low: 291.44%)
6. REN /usdt - 129.4% (High&Low: 297.18%)
7. PHB /busd - 125.71% (High&Low: 291.05%)
8. MTL /usdt - 121.76% (High&Low: 260.94%)
9. DYDX /usdt - 116.42% (High&Low: 241.06%)
10. AXS /usdt - 113.71% (High&Low: 256.93%)
11. WAVES /usdt - 107.4% (High&Low: 267.02%)
12. AMB /busd - 106.3% (High&Low: 262.63%)
13. OP /usdt - 103.7% (High&Low: 208.85%)
14. SFP /usdt - 102.03% (High&Low: 225.66%)
15. JASMY /usdt - 100.49% (High&Low: 197.88%)
The coin showed the worst result: BTC /usdt - 31.8% (High&Low: 68.19%).
Full list of analyzed coins: www.tradingview.com
Analysis information for all coins: docs.google.com
Thanks for your attention!
Overview of Cryptocurrency Volatility - 1h, December, 2022.Analysis of the volatility index in December. Time interval - 1 hour.
Currency - USDT or equivalent to BUSD .
The selection is carried out according to the lists of cryptocurrencies that are represented on the spot and futures markets, with a total of more than a hundred coins.
Top 15 Coins (1 hour):
1. LEVER /busd - 1002.31% (High&Low: 2274.3%)
2. ANC /busd - 784.61% (High&Low: 1519.88%)
3. BNX /usdt - 639.54% (High&Low: 1369.09%)
4. REN /usdt - 593.44% (High&Low: 1249.88%)
5. MASK /usdt - 580.46% (High&Low: 1281.46%)
6. PHB /busd - 574.7% (High&Low: 1326.25%)
7. OCEAN /usdt - 545.74% (High&Low: 1196.13%)
8. HNT /busd - 543.13% (High&Low: 1220.3%)
9. AMB /busd - 537.81% (High&Low: 1220.83%)
10. RLC /usdt - 514.08% (High&Low: 1087.3%)
11. BAND /usdt - 509.97% (High&Low: 1036.89%)
12. ANT /usdt - 505.74% (High&Low: 1059.93%)
13. DYDX /usdt - 483.25% (High&Low: 1051.11%)
14. WAVES /usdt - 475.18% (High&Low: 1080.01%)
15. LIT /usdt - 468.61% (High&Low: 1041.93%)
The coin showed the worst result: BTC /usdt - 122.62% (High&Low: 291.98%).
Full list of analyzed coins: www.tradingview.com
Analysis information for all coins: docs.google.com
Thanks for your attention!
January EffectHello guys! Have you ever heard of the "January effect"? It's a pattern that has been observed in financial markets where the prices of small cap stocks tend to go up in the month of January. Some people think this happens because of tax-loss selling (when investors sell stocks that aren't doing well in order to reduce their tax burden) or because more people are interested in buying small cap stocks at the start of a new year. It's important to remember that the January effect isn't a sure thing and shouldn't be the only reason you make investment decisions.
What do you think about this effect?
LINK - The Castle Is Standing Strong! 🏚Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
LINK has been stuck inside a big range in green between 5.0 and 10.0
And as per my last analysis (attached below / related ideas), we know that now the bulls took over from a short-term perspective after breaking above the orange zone.
What Now?
As LINK retests the orange zone, we will be looking for short-term trend-following buy setups.
For the bulls to take over from a long-term perspective, we still need a break above the upper bound of the range and round number 10.0
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Dec. Gold, will it breakout? Gold appears to be approaching a key zone of interest, but this time I am long and looking for a breakout. As shown in the charts we can see that gold is heading right for a trendline resistance + golden pocket and it is starting to top out on the oscillators. This tends to be a banger recipe for a rejection but I think this time around could be different. This time could be different if the dollar manages to stay below it local high of $9.28. I can see that the dollar will likely retrace back to around $106.27-42. I plan to hold onto my longs from $1,750 until at least the GP + Trendline. I plan to watch and observe reaction at this area and set a stop in the money. If it breaks out, great, if it gets rejected, sounds good, I'll have my stops set in profit.
With my target on the dollar, I think gold will likely reach $1,788 minimum, if not breakout. Lets get it.
Sidenote, I use 20x leverage trading Gold. This is a good way to amp your trading profits in a slower moving market such as metals. Please use proper risk management when using leverage.
Corn Shortage! Blah Blah BlahThis week has brought about news on the projected corn yields dropping marginally, which in turn, is pushing this beast into higher territory. As we check out the chart we can see we have a significant golden pocket that will act as the Berlin Wall for corn. Prices below the golden pocket will act as East Berlin, controlled by the soviets during the Cold War. Trapped in a descending trend. If corn manages to push past the golden pocket + trend line resistance, corn will now be on the west side of the Berlin Wall. Free to explode into the June highs of $7.5.
In this analogy, I personally think that the soviets will maintain control and rule over corn until harvest is over. Corn harvest has started in the south and will continue into Nov. As we harvest we will have more corn in the bins and ready to use. Which will lead to lower prices IMO. Simple supply and demand.
Based off of the chart technicals, I am even more confident in saying that corn will be rejected because of where the GP and trend resistance lays. Once price reaches those levels I am expecting to see a bearish divergence on all three oscillators, and then I will go short big time. This could be a multi-month trade. But as always take profits on your way at key targets.
Major short target: $5.70-$5.30