December
DAX 9/12/2016 This is my idea to 9/12/2016. Although I do not trust the bullish movement that is running the DAX, tomorrow I will enter long to meet the following goals marked in the chart. Anyway .. we are in a control zone that could easily cause us to drop the price. Therefore, I insist that you do not cling to an idea. Have a good trading.
DAX 07/12/2016Tomorrow we can see the start of the last rise of the DAX before short. I do not think we see any kind of GAP but we can see that the movement is much slower. Reaching the 10900 should be possible during the day tomorrow ... then to reach the 11000 point I think we will not get to see it until Friday. Have a good trading.
Sell ahead of NFPBased off of current conditions I am expecting a fall in EUR/USD ahead of the US NFP witch is expected to surge will further push the EUR downward. Although I have some concern based off of trend line breaks but this can be expected due to higher market volatility. I plan on shorting the pair sometime tonight or tomorrow morning and taking a hefty profit w/ a R/R ratio of 3.5-1. Let me know what you guys think. :)
DAX 1/12/2016The operation would do it in the following way. If it had not entered even short it would enter around level 10630. If we reach the first target we would draw 50 pips. If the price moves according to the diagram then I would make a long entry to take advantage of the 30 or 40 pips that would give me the pullback. At the end of the pullback, he would make a second entry to target 2, drawing about 60 more pips. In total you could get about 140 pips from this operation by making 3 entries.
Looking to sell strength on cableThe cable continues to consolidate in the relative calm following the October flash crash. Pair is currently hovering above a minor trend-line, extending off of the October 28 low and may find support here and continue to range over the short term. Over the medium term; we're looking for a move lower, followed by bearish continuation and seeking to position ourselves appropriately. We'd like to sell any bounces towards 1.25; or if we are not so lucky, a 4h close below 1.239.
Initial support is the 1.2360 - 1.239 zone; with a break below there targeting 1.3, followed by 1.2150. Initial resistance is the 1.25 - 1.255 zone; with a break above there invalidating our bearish bias and targeting the November highs above 1.2650.
Bitcoin Megabull Cycle - Resumes December 7-8My last few charts failed to pinpoint the exact Bitcoin top. Their were several potential tops at $680, $715, $750-760 to consider from. In the end Bitcoin formed the exact ascending triangle(s) we had seen in the $465 - $360 range. This pattern is not new for Bitcoin, as a matter of fact, the same ascending triangle pattern formed prior to the Megabull of 2012 after reaching a top at $14 as seen in this chart:
Back to the current setup if you choose to take it: Bitcoin hit $750 roughly on November 2nd on all exchanges forming another ascending triangle, and it started consolidating for 36 days in a wide range of $765 - $650.
The expected break out date and start of the Megabull rally is: December 7-8 2016
From there we will be able to continue our journey way higher as we head to the "moon". If we manage to hit $1100 Bitcoin could get higher due to increased media coverage and more interest / hype that will bring new money in to the market.
Conservative targets are: $1,150, $2,800
Medium targets: $4,200, $8,800 per Bitcoin
Extremely high volatile targets: $10,000 - 15,000
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My Idea on FOMC USD rate hike decision for EURUSDSo the time is coming, this is the last chance for the FED to demonstrate that the US economy is strong enough to withhold an interest rate hike and continue to show improvements.
there are many political and idealogical factors behind this decision and this is a worry to investors and speculators that think this rate hike should not go ahead and that is only happening because of NON economical influences.
lets see first, prior to the 16th meeting >>>
the pair could well continue its bullish momentum, revisiting the high of 1090 and even penetrating all the way to the 1200 area where the down trend of this year has been established.
also prior to the result and news release, some big brokers and desks will take positions to ensure they have enough liquidity to provide dollars to those who will buy it, so this will produce a few big EUR orders.
Take a look at the CME options expiring at the NY cut, this will give you a good idea of what level is the market expecting.
WITHIN THE MEETING/DECISION
the key word here is VOLATILITY, while traders and brokers decide whether the statement is hawkish or dovish, you will probably see some spikes up and down as they hedge/cover and close their positions currently open.
no one will open brand new positions during the event unless is to cover their large contracts to prevent losses
here is when you need to be careful with your SL, if this is hit during the event then stay out until you can clearly asses the decision. bear in mind that experts analysts have great tools that electronically analyse the statement and is capable to identify different words and highlight this for the banks so their capacity of response is going to be pretty big nevertheless unlimited.
AFTER THE DECISION
here is when new positions will be opened, as liquidity returns and new players enter the market, big banks will look to find out how the decision affects their long term outcome and new positions could be undertaken over the next few days.
looking at where the initial spike ends up you can get an idea if the outcome was scenario A B or C but still.. this may not probe to be the case and the pair may reverses within a few days of the initial euphoric move.
SO IN SUMMARy
- Prior to the event, keep an eye on positioning
- during the event, volatility could kill your positions, ensure you are covered
- after the event, reach the same conclusion than the big traders is essential, load yourself up with good news provider
- if you are not sure, or you have no capital, or you feel insecure about trading in historic events, please do not trade this event.
HAPPY TRADING
HAPPY XMAS!
any questions, please ask below :)
FED POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR EURUSD (Dec Meeting)Hi All!
As I did back in August with the september meeting, I have decided to create a possibility of different Scenarios for the EURUSD pair for the month of December.
I have outlined 3 scenarios based on the price range seen and recheable so far this year, this would give you a good idea of where to buy, sell or hold positions if you are thinking about trading in Dec.
As ALWAYS! please be careful what you do, this is not for beginners but Im sure it would be a great time to try a few things with demo money as well.
In a nutshell...
IF THE FED RAISE THE RATES - the question here is not will you?, or, will your not? The question is, how much? and for how long? - investors will have to digest the FOMC minutes to make sure they understand how much the FED is prepared to raise and what is it going to be the path of increases. in every outcome there is an idea of what would happen if the rate hike is symbolic, when I say Symbolic I mean so small that is just to show they are taking some action but not enough to make Institutional investors change their mind about the Euro.
IF THE FED HOLDS ON THE RATE HIKE - this would just take us to the same place we are at the moment, important to watch that pivot line (green) because we will continue to pass over and below this line for a long time and only the ECB decisions on the EURO QE purchasing program will decide what moves the pair (and puntualities like Greece, migrant crisis and also fundamental news)
IF THE FED DECIDES TO LOWER THE RATES - this is the less of all outcomes, chances of this is nearly zero and this is why I havent mentioned it on the chart but there still a possibility, if this happens, forget about parity, the Euro and other majors would instantly take over the dollar and we could see levels we havent seen for 2-4 years. Crazy eh? well... we know central banks can be crazy (remember SNB flash crash begining this year)
So... here we go, no only the action of increasing will move the market, but also how much is increased and for how long, watch out for inflation and unemployment as these will be the triggers.
any questions? - ask me here or on my twitter account @SolidSnakeUk89
December Bitcoin PredictionIn November, the bitcoin market had a surge of volatility because of a huge short squeeze that caused the price to go up about 50%. This, along with several other technical signals, suggests to me that bitcoin may be transitioning into an uptrend. Since the lows in the upper 200s in October, we have had a series of higher lows and some higher highs as well. Currently, bitcoin is in a symmetric triangle consolidation, as shown by the orange boundaries. I think bitcoin will break up through this triangle towards strong resistance at 2520. Should we break through this resistance level, i think the uptrend is confirmed and we will retest the highs in november. $450 is an important resistance level because the unleveraged exchanges (stamp and btc-e) made their highs around there, and it was an old resistance level from the middle of the downtrend.
The auction of 50k bitcoin may create some interesting market dynamics for the month of December, regarding the market expectations of miners concerning supply and demand. Should there be overwhelming demand from the auction, miners may find that demand was higher than they expected, and now don't have enough coins to satiate the general market demand. I think they may have sold many of their bitcoin upon receiving the news of the auction, thinking that this extra supply would hinder their ability to make a profit from the coins they were currently holding, and also to lock in profits to avoid the risk of holding them when this extra supply enters the market. This could have had an effect to artificially lower the price for the past few weeks. If it plays out like this, the lack of supply will help fuel the potential uptrend.