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Decline

Back to the bell curve and exponential growth: adoption cycle goThe sixth is here and I want to remind people first and foremost that BTC doesn't have to do anything that we predict it will do. As a matter of fact if manipulation is as strong as some people believe then it is most certainly not going to do what the overwhelming masses believe. Just as it's best to buy when there is blood on the streets, it's going to be best to buy when every one else is selling. So let's see how plausible it is from here to get to $25k and even $30k. I'm going to put this in real simple math terms to show what the average daily growth needs to be to meet these goals. We are at just over $7.5k so I think with the volatility still in the market swings of a couple hundred dollars are still very likely. I'm going to also estimate that we only have about 180 days left this year. $25,000-$7000 = $18000 The amount that we need to increase to get to the end goal of the shorter trend-line. 180 days left in the year means that on average we only need to gain $100 dollars per day. $18000/180 days = $100. Gains and losses can be found in the 15 minute and 5 minute charts every now and then so for the daily chart to reflect this is really really plausible. $35,000-$7000 = $28000 The amount that we need to increase to get to the end goal of the second over-all trend-line. The simple 180 days again puts us at a gain of $156 rounding to the nearest dollar. $28000/180 days = $155.56 average increase per day. Now with these simple numbers, apply them to the bell curve that I've presented in the past and think about adoption. Are people running from bitcoin as a whole or adopting it even more on the whole. Use cases are still few but improvements keep coming. Even as a store of value, it is still going to increase in use for a while and that adoption rate is not going to be linear. Hence the reason I used parabolic lines. As for the two beacon examples of BTC and block chain being adopted...Taiwan and Korea. There are also a plethora of countries in turmoil where BTC is being adopted as a way to not use native fiat currency. All of this outside of the normal developed nations trying to make this more usable. Now with this said, $7000-$4000 = $3000. This $3000/180days = $16.67 dollars of loss per day over the next few months to take us down to $4000. It is really easy to see that a BTC price of $4000 is entirely plausible if things were linear, but for an adoption cycle to be exponentially increasing we would have to be on the downside of the bell curve to get there easily, and we would have to also see an agreement of sell-off between a lot of parties otherwise. For us to reach $4000 at this moment which I do believe is possible but unlikely, there would be a sell off great enough to counter act the adoption process and the reason I'm not worried about that is because if it happens that spring is going to be compressed under so much pressure that the bull run afterwards will dwarf what we saw in 2017. I don't believe that it would happen right after the fall because a lot of people are going to lose trust in the system, but after it settles again there would be a massive buying frenzy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by whiprush3
EURUSD Counter-Rally to Upper Parallel Before next DeclineineEURUSD 30th May EUR has finally reached the month-long downside target at 1.1558 just in time for the end of the May. It actually exceeded the target by 45 pips before reversing higher and creating the first strong green candles of buying intent the market has seen for months now. But the counter rally is running out of momentum now whilst DXY holds above 94. Initial resistance for EUR lies here at the 1.1676 line and extends to the line above at 1.1731. This range, bounded by the two lines, is likely to prove insurmountable in the very near term - it will need DXY itself to break below 94 to break the upper parallel here - in which case the bears will retreat further here too and it should then rally 90 or so pips higher still to 1.1821 on more bear closing before falling away again. That looks to be best case scenario for EUR from here though. (At the same time DXY should then fall to test the 93.36-93.12 range and then bounce higher again.) So long as 94 holds up on DXY the Euro is likely to remain trapped within the medium term downtrend of April/May and likely to fall away from the upper parallel once more when challenged. But this time around the next sell off from the upper parallel of the larger impulse wave has a reasonable chance of creating a double bottom around the 1.1558-1.1540 range when it does fall away again - so any fresh shorts taken out around current levels need closing down again here. Any subsequent fall below 1.1535 will then be needed to trigger fresh shorts from here back to the 1.1318-1.1287 range.
Short
by sumastardon
2
The decline is continuedAfter reaching the mark of 10.000 we see a series of falling vertices. Later, our price went up to the mark of 8.000, and at the weekend it was adjusted from it to 8.500. Watching the further movement of the pair and considering the price levels, we assume that further price advancement will continue. Therefore, in case of consolidation under our current level, near which the price is, the pair will move on to the next level. The next levels for the price are near the marks 7.500 and 6.800, which are expected to move in case of overcoming the mark 8.000. Therefore, we recommend taking short positions. SL and TP should be set near the resistance levels.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by SuperForex
The decline is continuedAfter reaching the mark of 10.000 we see a series of falling vertices. Later, our price went up to the mark of 8.000, and at the weekend it was adjusted from it to 8.500. Watching the further movement of the pair and considering the price levels, we assume that further price advancement will continue. Therefore, in case of consolidation under our current level, near which the price is, the pair will move on to the next level. The next levels for the price are near the marks 7.500 and 6.800, which are expected to move in case of overcoming the mark 8.000. Therefore, we recommend taking short positions. SL and TP should be set near the resistance levels.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by SuperForex
BTGUSD Neutral to bearish - next buy pointsBTGUSD Update Neutral to bearish near term Left this awaiting a successful break of the parallel to the upside having bought again around 290-288 - but the break was dud at 303 first resistance with a couple of tiny pin bars (like BCH, too) showing rejection....over about 3 hours so giving loads of time to see the top/resistance forming and therefore close out with meagre 5% profit (on top of 15 to 25% profits already banked on BTG this week alone - was banned for 12 hours last night so no updates for mistakenly uploading an LTC chart to gold chat room by mistake: Nazis in the gold room, beware) So now BTG is falling away down the parallel, not hot but not too cold either, like BCH right now. Ideally this will fall lower still, to 270 and could spike down to 262. Look to accumulate in this range with stops left below 252. Break Points Any break below 254 would be very bearish, opening the way for a good short back to 222-217 range (reverse here) A break above 308 is needed now (unlikely in near term) to trigger a long up to 320. More as this develops.
B
by sumastardon
1
EURUSD: Continuation pattern prior to next decline still in playEURUSD It's plain to see that this this pattern is still one of continuation and eventually EUR should break the lower parallel containing this week's minor corrective up-wave and come much lower still...so am not looking to buy dips, more to sell the EUR rallies back to the upper parallel, looking for much lower values once the parallel gives way... Whilst being written another pin bar of heavy selling has been created, only confirming that this is a sucker's rally. This time we need to keep away from the EUR cookie jar. It's pretty much empty. The last hour of trading only adds weight to that outlook. Look to sell from the smaller upper parallel if retested and then to sell again once the lower parallel is broken on the downside. EUR has much further to fall over the coming weeks, as per recent comments.
by sumastardon
WING- Breakdown short from $31.87 to $28.87zWING seems broken down from an upward channel & consolidating within a triangle formation. If it breaks down the triangle formation or the support around $32, it can decline down to $28 or lower. * Trade Criteria * Date First Found- October 25, 2017 Pattern/Why- Upward channel, Triangle breakdown short. Entry Target Criteria- Break of $31.87 Exit Target Criteria- $28.87 Stop Loss Criteria- $33.53 Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
NASDAQ:WINGShort
by AcornWealthCorp
Dollar Weakness continuationDecline situation in my previous DXY analysis was a success. There is the continuation of my DXY analysis; A (orange) - Still looking for bears to take control. As long as we remain under the blue area, that will be our main resistance area for the week. Currently bouncing on a higher timeframe bullish trend line, I am looking for a break and a nice retest for confirmation. We might al Long term more down moves. B (red) - Still looking for bears to take control. Same technical moves from plan (A). Long term big consolidation range within S&R area and further down moves. C (blue) - As we might be into fake bearish move as mentioned in my previous analysis, we might starting the next trading week with fake bearish moves. Breaking throughout the blue resistance area and pushing the Dollar further up to reach and bounce off the bearish trend line , also on the highlighted S&R line. Pulling out the fibs on the weekly, this projection could give us an optimal trade entry based on the retracement. 88.4 is my long term bias for the US Dollar . Price action can only determine which situation could occur and even, none of them. This will help on the direction of all USD cross pairs. Dollar strengh = USDXXX UP / XXXUSD DOWN Dollar weak = XXXUSD UP / USDXXX DOWN
TVC:DXYShort
by RomZStar
Sugar - Triangle consolidation in wave 4 completeIn my September 28 update, I called for a final zig-zag rally in wave e to complete the triangle consolidation in wave 4. This e wave has developed as expected and wave 4 is now complete. The final impulsive decline in wave 5 should now be seen towards at least 10.11 and more likely closer to the cluster supports in the 8.39 - 8.77 area from where a new rally towards 14.45 is expected. Resistance at 14.58 should continue to cap the upside for a break below the triangle support-line near 13.05 for the final impulsive decline in wave 5.
SShort
by EWS
WDAY- WDAY seems breaking down forming a double top. It is rolling over nicely, and moneyflow also turning negative. We think it will be a good hedge for all the Longs we have. * Trade Criteria * Date First Found- May 11, 2017 Pattern/Why- Double top breakdown, Hedge position Entry Target Criteria- Break of $88.43 Exit Target Criteria- 1st Target $88.43, 2nd Target $70.23 Stop Loss Criteria- $90.76 Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.) You can check detailed analysis on -- in the trading room/ Executive summary link here- www.youtube.com Time Span- "
WShort
by AcornWealthCorp
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDJPY Can Be In For A ReversalUSDJPY is turning down at the moment which has been technically expected based on a five wave rise from 112.08 which makes a completed wave v) of a higher degree. That said, a bigger corrective decline can be coming in three waves. Disclosure: We do not own any assets or share of the instrument mentioned in our outlook Please be informed that information we provide ARE NOT trading recommendation or investment advice. All our work is for educational purposes only.
Short
by ew-forecast
5
S&P 500: Major US stock market pullback until around May 2017The Trump rally is forced to take a break after the recent Fed rate hike. A hike which was forced onto the market. A upcoming strong stock market pullback of the "S&P 500" can now easily be blamed on this decision by the Fed. As reaction the Fed is most likely going to cut back on their current plans to hike even more in the year 2017 and then the stock market could rise slowly again, after all weak hand mom and pop investors have sold at the bottom of the pullback to all strong hand long-term investors (who were waiting during the last weeks for an opportunity to buy cheaper into the big rally). Related news: 'Three steps and a stumble' feared after US Fed raises rates - March 12, 2017 Although US Fed chief Janet Yellen has moved very slowly in raising rates, and has gone out of her way to prepare markets for the inevitability of higher rates, some analysts are warn that the old market adage of "three steps and a stumble" – which predicts a US share market selloff after three Fed rate hikes – is likely to hold sway. And this could have extremely important consequences for the behavior of US consumers, who have been comforted by the rise in value of their homes and share portfolios, and have continued to spend briskly even though they have yet to to enjoy a strong lift in real (inflation-adjusted) wages. www.afr.com Three steps and stumble rule The principle that security prices will decline following three consecutive increases by the Federal Reserve in the discount rate it charges commercial banks. The rule stems from the negative effect rising interest rates have on security prices. financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com The overall downtrend could be large and quite fast. My 8 month old forecast has the downtrend going back down to around 2150 or even 2000 points: But with so many bulls in the market and overall improving economic data during the last months I currently think the pullback ends around 2300 points or even higher earlier as my best case scenario. Worst case this turns into a larger crash which will end down further and later around 2100 points. Short entry: 2360-2375 Stop loss: 2390 Target: 2300-2225 Risk: 15-30 points Reward: 60-150 point (2360-2300, 2375-2225) P.S. I mentioned the downtrend risk already as a warning in the comments of my previous chart '"Phase III" Of The Trump Rally' 21 days ago (on February 28, which was one day before the "S&P 500"peak at 2400 points). Since then I was waiting for even more confirmation by the price action that a market top has been reached, which is now the case on March 21, 2017.
SP:SPXShort
by ChartArt
1
NVDA - Head & shoulder formation short from $108.07 to $90 areaNVDA came up in our smart money course. It had a really long run, and now seems forming a Head & shoulder. Also seems forming a double top. We think it has very good down side potential & it can drop to $90 shortly. * Trade Criteria * Date First Found- February 13, 2017 Pattern/Why- Head & shoulder; Double top Entry Target Criteria- Break of $108.07 Exit Target Criteria- $90 Stop Loss Criteria- $116.13 Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by AcornWealthCorp
JACK - Support breakdown short from $92.77 JACK looks pretty interesting short setup. It had a huge decline below MA200 & holding this support now. Moneyflow has plummeted. It has huge downward potential if it can break the support label. * Trade Criteria * Date First Found- March 2, 2017 Pattern/Why- Support breakdown Entry Target Criteria- Break of $92.77 Exit Target Criteria- Momentum Special Note- We would consider $95 April Puts @ $3.60 or $95 Jun Puts @ $6.50 Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
NASDAQ:JACKShort
by AcornWealthCorp
XYL - inverted flag formation short from $46.63 to $40 area. XYL seems breaking down underneath Resistance, and seems forming a flag formation. Downward volume is increasing & moneyflow is going down as well. We think if it can break below $46.63 it can go all the way down to $40 area. * Trade Criteria * Date first found-February 9, 2017 Pattern/Why- Resistance breakdown, Inverted flag formation Entry Target Criteria- Break of $46.63 Exit Target Criteria- $40.63 Stop Loss Criteria- $49.13 (Note: Trade update is delayed here.)
NYSE:XYLShort
by AcornWealthCorp