Massive US Growth Will Decouple Many Global MarketsPlease watch this video to learn my viewpoint on where real opportunities exist for traders.
For many months, I've suggested that the US markets could double or triple over the next 5 to 7+ years. Some people laugh at my expectations, but others seem to "get it."
In this video, I try to explain why my expectations are valid and why I believe the "crash-dummies" will continue to trap traders into believing each new high reached is a fantastic selling opportunity.
Please watch this video and listen to what I'm trying to share. I don't see the markets as a risk related to a massive financial or global crisis (although it could happen).
I see the markets as shifting/changing related to a post-COVID coupling/decoupling event - very similar to what happened, briefly, in the 1990s.
A decoupling event would shift global economics to a point where global assets move away from determined risk factors and towards safety/security. That means the US stock market, as long as the US Dollar & US economy stays relatively strong, would be the most logical in-demand asset for the next 2~5+ years.
It is straightforward when you consider what is happening.
I hope this helps you understand where opportunities exist and how important it is to rethink what is unfolding right now.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Decoupling
Trade Data Confirms Decoupling Well UnderwayCME: Offshore RMB ( CME:CNH1! ), Micro RMB ( CME_MINI:MNH1! )
On April 5th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the latest U.S. global trade data. For the first two months of 2023, total export and import were $328.9 and $489.7 billion, respectively. U.S. international trade balance was $160.9 billion in deficit.
Export growth was very strong, at 9.5% year-over-year, while import was up modestly (+0.5%). As a result, trade deficit was reduced by $25.8B from last year period.
My analysis focuses on Exhibits 14 and 14a of the report, which detail global trades by trading bloc and country in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Here are what I found:
• NAFTA: Canada and Mexico together have total trade (import plus export) of $245.6B. NAFTA is the largest US trading partner with a 30.0% share. So far in 2023, we see trading growth of 8.5% and 1.3% in share gain y/y.
• EU+UK: Total trade is $173.9B, up strongly +20.2% y/y. This is the second largest trading bloc with a market share of 21.2%, up 2.8% y/y.
• China+HK: Total trade is $98.6B, down sharply -14.5% y/y. Traditionally the largest US trading partner, China is now the 3rd largest, with a 12.0% share, down 2.6% y/y.
• India: Total trade $20.1B (-1.1% y/y) with a 2.46% share (-0.1% y/y)
• Vietnam: Total trade $19.1B (-3.0% y/y) with a 2.33% share (-0.2% y/y)
• Taiwan: Total trade $19.2B (+72.2% y/y) with a 2.35% share (+0.9% y/y)
Shifting of Global Supply Chain
The U.S. has determined to reduce its reliance on China for manufactured goods. Decoupling aims to shift global supply chain out of China. Where would they go to?
• On-shore: moving manufacturing back to the U.S. (Made-in-America);
• Near-shore: moving manufacturing to NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico;
• Moving to democratic countries with shared values, including the European Union, Asia (Japan, Korea, India, Vietnam, Taiwan) and South/Central America.
Based on BLS nonfarm payroll data in March, total employment in manufacturing sector is 12.98 million. This is 600K more comparing to March 2017 level, before the US-China trade conflict. Manufacturing jobs are coming back to the U.S.
What does the strong growth in trading with NAFTA, EU and Taiwan tell us? It shows the shifting of supply chain. This growth comes at the expense of China, which is the only major US trading partner that suffered a decline in both trading volume and market share.
Implications of Decoupling
Shifting of supply chain has long-term implications.
Bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. means job creation as well as consumption and taxes. Companies may receive government incentives to offset the cost of relocation. In the long run, getting out of the expensive cross-ocean shipping and the punitive Trump-era tariff would lower the cost of production. Near-shore production in Canada and Mexico also benefits from a more reliable supply chain and lower transportation cost.
Southeastern Asian nations have average labor cost at 1/3 or less comparing to workers of similar skills in coastal China. Vietnam and India prosper in recent years by taking production of clothes, shoes, toys, and low-end electronics away from China.
What is the implication of trade decoupling on exchange rate? It will result in devaluation of Chinese Yuan against the US dollar.
Firstly, currency exchange rate reflects the interest rate differential in the short-term.
• US Fed Funds rate is 4.75%-5.00%, and China Shibor is 1.374%;
• The Fed could raise rate again, while China’s central bank is easing to support the lackluster growth in economy. The widening US-China rate differential would cause RMB to devalue, holding all else constant.
Secondly, exchange rate represents the relative strength between two economies in the long run. Decoupling has a positive impact on US economy, but a really negative one on China.
Since China abandoned Zero-Covid policy last November, its economy has not rebounded as previously hoped. Export-oriented industries are seeing the horror of disappearing orders and clients. The housing sector, the bedrock of China’s economy, is suffering from a bust of real-estate bubble.
Dedollarization: Fact or Fiction?
Rhetoric about the pending doom of US dollar goes viral in recent weeks. While the Greenback is being challenged, no other candidate is capable of replacing it as global reserve currency.
According to the BIS, 88% of international trade was settled in US dollars in 2021. The Fed estimates that from 1999 to 2019, dollar settlement accounted for 96% of international trade in the Americas, 74% in the Asia-Pacific region, and 79% elsewhere.
IMF reports that the percentage of central bank reserve by currency in 149 countries is: US dollars, 59%; Euro, 20%; Japanese yen and pound sterling, 5% each; RMB, 3%; Others, 8%.
A global reserve currency could retain its status for well over 100 years before being replaced by another. British pound was the last reserve currency since the start of 1800s. It wasn’t until the establishment of Bretton Woods system in 1944 when the US dollar became its replacement. At that time, the U.S. has been the largest economy for forty years and held over 70% of the world’s gold reserve.
In a worst-case scenario, if an upstart currency were to successfully challenge the US dollar, its downfall would be decades away. If your investment horizon is months or years, this is not something stopping you from owning dollar.
Trade Idea
CME Offshore RMB (CNH) futures is settled at 6.8516 on Monday. The contract has a notional value of $100,000 and is quoted as the number of Chinese Yuan per $1.
The next Fed meeting is on May 2-3. According to CME FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 71% chance that the Fed would raise 25 basis points. If the Fed raises rate and China’s central bank does nothing, futures price shall go up by mechanical calculation.
Holding or selling 1 CNHUSD future requires HKEX:18 ,500 in minimum margin. If the exchange rate moves 1 tick, or $0.0001, the futures account would gain or lose 10 Yuan.
Micro RMB futures (MNH) is 1/10 of the standard size CNH contract with a HKEX:10 ,000 notional. Margin requirement is also 1/10 of the original, at HKEX:1 ,850.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
XRP is Awake: The DecouplingXRPBTC and XRPETH pairs are defying the market right now. XRPUSD now has an inverse correlation with BTCUSD after going negative for the first time in ages.
Despite being overbought, is bouncing off RSI.
This is only the beginning, XRP is not going to retrace down 50% from this.
You're witnessing a historical moment in cryptocurrency.
The lawsuit is set for settlement or summary judgement now.
It's the worst kept secret now that SEC lost.
Brad is all over media again, has balls to talk down SEC.
Taking photo-ops with CFTC commissioner Caroline D. Pham.
XLS-20 is going to launch soon.
This confluence...
This confluence is uncanny, don't sleep on this.
NASDAQ/US100 - ABC WAVE - UPDATEA month ago I made a call that NASDAQ would continue to correct through an ABC wave (see related ideas)
So far its playing out so I decided to give it a little more attention, with additional situations for consideration. Patterns could be wider or thinner than anticipated depending on news, fear & volatility.
Bullish scenario: Inverse H&S
Diverging from the initial ABC wave I plotted last month, should the impact of the current political turmoil pertaining to Russia deescalate, we could see an inverse head and shoulders.
Bearish scenario: Macro ABC correction
Should the political turmoil continue, or general market fears as people try to find a safe asset to allocate to such as metals, healthcare stocks, weapons manufacturing, we could see a continuation of my initial ABC wave, although I have tightened it up slightly to account for the obvious volatility in global markets.
Crypto: Decoupling opportunity
Currently US100 price action is also DIRECTLY influencing $BTC.
If BTC ever needed a shining moment to decouple from US100 in a dramatic manner, it would be for it to follow the bullish inverse H&S pattern, whilst US100 follows a the deeper ABC corrective wave. This would drag every other crypto up along with it.
Alternatively it would be an excellent moment for $ETH to shine and initiate the coveted flippening.
However, if BTC or ETH fails to follow the inverse H&S pattern, they will likely be dragged down with US100 on the macro ABC roller coaster.
War escalation scenario:
There's a possibility stocks could straight up tumble all the way down to the lowest trend floor. The red, yellow, and green boxes indicate areas with liquidity where I would theoretically DCA.
If the price reaches such lows of 8k it will call into question the current economic model. If there was a time for a Great Reset, or for a global movement to be rid of monetary finance altogether, this would be it.
It will either be the greatest buying opportunity in history, or the end of traditional finance as we know it.
If a war is nuclear? Well you'll be lucky to have electricity to trade with.
Nobody wins.
As always, I could be completely wrong with all of these ideas.
WAVES Makes Waves. Crypto's "Decoupling" ContinuesAfter Friday's "decoupling" event, the markets have mostly stayed flat (it feels like there's a lot of confusion and uncertainty in the market as a whole right now) with a few exceptions - WAVES seems to be the big winner today, followed by AXS (Axie Infinity) and ADA (Cardano). XTZ (Tezos) had a very good week this week but at least for today, it seems to be in the red.
With altcoins normally moving in parallel to each other, these trends are interesting to look at because it seems like after Friday each coin seems to have suddenly gained independence as we start to see less and less parallel motion over time. Time will tell if this "decoupling" trend continues - but so far, it seems to be the case.
By the way, if you invested in LUNA right at its rock-bottom a few days ago you would have made a 5.9 MILLION % return today. High risk, high reward. 😂 I don't recommend putting your life savings into bets like these but there is something to the idea of supporting a project during its struggles since that's often how investors make their biggest returns.
Proof-of-Stake Coins Are Now Winning Web3. Can Bitcoin Survive?Along with the "decoupling" event that happened on Friday, Ethereum's announcement of the ETH2/Consensys/Merge coming up in August is likely to create some waves in the crypto space as the date approaches - not only will it affect the ETH ecosystem itself, there's a chance that it could have significant ripple effects on the tokens minted on top of it as well.
Over the years there has been, however, a general trend towards Proof-of-Stake systems gaining more favorability, especially among DeFi projects - because of its greater efficiency and ease of use. After the merge, Bitcoin may be the only project left on the charts that is using the Proof-of-Work model - what does this mean for Web3 and crypto spaces longer term?
Crypto Decouples From Stocks. Is the "Flippening" on its Way?On Friday the (currently volatile) stock market rallied a little, putting Wall Street somewhat at ease. But an interesting thing happened that day that never happened before - crypto assets actually went down, instead of up.
If you're a crypto holder you're probably prefer to see the pattern reversed, but it's still an interesting pattern worth exploring further. If crypto and stocks are finally "decoupled", does this mean that when stocks go down next time, crypto is going to go up? If so, when the recession hits later this year, it could mean good things for the crypto ecosystem, long-term. The "flippening" may well be on its way.
Many investors are waiting to see what happens on Monday, when Wall Street opens up again - the fiat markets are likely to go down again in response to Friday's rally, at least in the short-term. How will crypto assets respond to this event? Will it move in parallel again? Or will it do its own thing?
Also a few comments about Tezos (XTZ) and Dogecoin (DOGE) that displayed independent movement on Friday as well.
Decoupling trade in the making gets a Like from ProfZero! 👍🏻INVESTMENT CONTEXT
In a remarkably divergent trade, on May 19 BTC regained USD 30k threshold and many Layer-1 currencies (ADA, ETH, XRP) moved up at least 4% while the S&P 500 headed towards the 7th consecutive week in red
U.S. President Joe Biden is touring Asia in an attempt to launch the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), countering criticism that American interest in the region had mainly security components
German industrial goods producer prices rose by 33.5% in April, setting a new record on the back of sharp increases in energy, metals and food prices
Russia will increase its military presence in the West of the country, in response to "increased military threats" posed by Sweden and Finland joining NATO
PROFZERO'S TAKE
ProfZero confesses a quite puzzled feeling after May 19 trading day. What started deeply in the red staged a rebound towards the end of the session, as tech stocks, and in particular blockchain equities (CoinBase, COIN; MicroStrategy, MSTR; RobinHood, HOOD) all surged at least 4.50% thanks to cryptocurrencies refusing to sideline in bear territory. ProfZero already noticed an interesting decoupling trade between the battered blockchain space and the market at large - yet prudence calls it too early to see a harbinger of a broader risk reversal
The dramatic 33.5% increase in German producer prices in April reflects how Europe's leading economy struggles to keep up with soaring energy and commodity prices as well as growing supply bottlenecks caused by the war in Ukraine and Chinese lockdowns. ProfZero can't help but to see how a portion of such greater costs is destined to be passed on to consumers - thus inevitably putting pressure on household consumption in Q3-Q4
ProfZero is not surprised about Russia's ambivalent reception of Sweden and Finland joining NATO - after all, on January 30, Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s security council, said "We do not want war. We don’t need it at all". True, in fact - no one needed that
Tracking the correlation/decoupling of BTC & tech stocks🚨🌊🔜👀This idea seems to be continuing on pretty well, showing the "slow" decoupling of BTC and the stock market. Currently the trend has been broken and there seems to be a confirmed retest of the upper trend. A good bounce off this should see the ratio move towards the 0.29 level and a break of that resistance level would signal a strong continuation. This (to me) would be the final signal that BTC has begun (perhaps in a big way) to decouple from the growth/fall rate of the stock market. This may be sparked by retail returning to the market, institutional investors taking a more BTC targeted strategy, or a combination of the two. If this is mostly caused by institutions then I would also be looking to see the "hype news" starting to come out, with headlines such as "Bitcoin will hit $100k" and things like that. As the US market goes into recession, big investors may just look to BTC and other cryptos to meet there profit-making needs. IMO this is how the next "short-term" bull-run may begin.
US100 CORRECTIONS OVERLAYED ON BTC + DECOUPLING + MAJOR PRICESRecently I updated a NASDAQ/US100 chart that was playing out an ABC scenario over the past month (see related links for more info).
To put it simply, two major situations I see as possibilities on the US100 chart are
- An inverse H&S
- A macro ABC corrective wave
Given $BTC price action is coupled with US100 price action at the moment, these patterns would also occur on the BTC chart, which I have mirrored here. HOWEVER, it also presents the perfect and very dramatic opportunity for crypto to decouple from traditional stock markets over the next few weeks by BTC following the inverse H&S (or rally before then) whilst the entire global stock market continues to correct.
Should this happen and we turn bullish:
- Returning to 46k to 53k as a trading zone
- A (somewhat unprecedented) rally to the ATH & Price Roof A (Plotted from the top DAILY wicks of 13th April 2021 + 10th November 2021)
With that said, the inclination for BTC to continue to follow US100 and the current political turmoil pertaining to Russia is high. In this case, BTC will just continue to follow US100 on a slow ABC macro wave until Q3/Q4 with a potential Christmas rally (War is hard in the winter)
This leaves us with the following key areas in a bearish only situation.
- 35k trend floor (Plotted from the bottoms wicks of 22nd July 2021 + 24th Jan 2022)
- 28k to 34k as a major consolidation zone with two previous trading ranges during (Jan 21 - Feb 21 + May 21 - July 21) as well as key wick bottoms.
- 25k as the next trend floor (Plotted from the bottom wicks of 20th March 2020 + 21st Sep 2020)
- 16k to 20k as the range at which a number of institutional funds entered the space (Grayscale entries, etc)
- 6k to 12k as a major liquidity range over the past 5 years
- 4.7k as the final and worst-case possible trend floor (plotted from the bottom WEEKLY wicks of 11th Sep 2017 + 10th Dec 2018 + 9th March 2020)
Of course, I could be completely wrong and we just go sideways till Christmas. Who knows!
Our generation's economical crossroads?I did this analysis on SPY last October. If you put together context and history on this chart, It's hard to ignore a potential painful scenario. Here are my thoughts.
1) If the markets are truly fundamentally cyclical, we could imagine the past being just versions of the same phenomenon : "When we're highly over-extended, old profitable bags are being sold to young greedy believers of paradigm shifts'"
2) In order for that not to happen, you would technically need factors big enough to outweigh the gravity pull that Newton's law is usually exerting on the market.
So the question is :
1) Are these factors powerful enough to break Newton's law? (Gigantic sideline money + Massive influx of new Investors + New economic culture + Other factors I don't know of)
2) If we observe a de-coupling of crypto and traditional markets, should we interpret that as evidence of the point above being true?
I am really on the fence between those two thoughts :
1) We're obviously going down, it's pretty crystal clear. Thinking other-wise is being a euphoric noob.
2) We're entering the most chaotic and unpredictable market moves in history and our expectations should be the first thing we doubt.
It is a saying that the market has its way of not getting us what we want. The reason why I am being neutral at this point is because I truly see the 3 same scenarios since October 2021 and yet at this point, it seems still too early to confirm any of them. At least through my eyes.
Scenarios being :
1) EXPONENTIAL ERA : We enter the so called exponential era that translates into a multi-generational money orgy sort of bubble
2) REGULAR ERA : We go for a real dump (20%-30%-40%), new investors get tricked by either buying the dip too early because they think their edge is infinite or selling the bottom betting on the end of the world, and we continu going up at a regular pace. The laws of the markets prevail. Maybe crypto decouples at that point?
3) MOTHER OF ALL CRASH: We truly are the generation that eats all the compounded shit of human history's past. (Quite skeptical of that one but maybe that's a bad sign?)
DISCLAIMER : THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE
ENS Potential DecouplingWell hello there,
It has been years since I have posted here, its been years since I have properly interacted with the Crypto space, now returning in a much healthier way all things considered personally.
The idea i have here for $ENS is that it currently sits on the 200MA forming what looks like a pennant. I have copied the last time it did that recently to the chart where ENS has only recently been released and the 200MA only had just appeared before the last considerable move up. I think that moving into the new year that assets like ENS have the potential to decouple from $BTC and forming unique price structures.
Looking left TP's would be the previous ATH of 80 ish and long term 120 - 249 USD in perhaps 6 months or so. I am not interested in making exact calls, i obtained these figures through basic fib analysis.
We can see a very recent sign of decoupling where ENS followed btc up from the last major dip and proceeded to form a pennant instead of following BTC back down ( Which for now BTC seems to be forming a shoddy looking megaphone pattern).
I am still on the fence as to how much i want to be contributing to this space as I have plenty of other creative endeavors / business to attend to, as someone who has been in the space for over 7 years if crypto is all consuming for you I would suggest taking a break for a while and putting some love into other areas of your life, you wont regret it!
Big love.
Rick
Decoupling of Garbage Coins- Zooko Time to Shine?!With ZK Rollups being the hot-topic of ETH hopium discussions, ZK Snarks should be in discussions as well. That, along side the recent volume and strong technicals on HTF for both the USD and BTC pair for ZEC is my reasoning on being bullish. Unless Zooko increases the founders reward to buy some more groceries, NGU.
BTC 180K-200K top in Q2-Q3 2022?Major trendline resistance was broken recently at 51k level.
We may be in a mid-cycle peak on to the way up to 180k-200k until ~Aug 2022.
Would still remain cautious atm as the traditional markets are undergoing a major 100 year-cycle correction that could drag $BTC with it.
But, there is a chance that every asset on the traditional market will get tokenized, possibly decoupling bitcoin from it from here on out.
XRP Has Finally Decoupled From BTC - Next Target $5 Very LikelyToday was very likely the final day for btc correction forming some kind of a W bottom. Looking at the market, everything was red ...except XRP. It was also when, just before the final btc crash xrp pumped 11-15%. It did hold above $1.30 as btc and other market was crashing today.
On the chart we can see that the fib. extension has been very well respected in the past 3 months. We can see that after the initial breakout period an abvious crash comes, followed by retrace of price that takes us roughly to a 0.702 - 0.786 level. The final phase is reaccumulation period that usually uncomfortable and boring till that clear breakout comes again.
Fib. extension on a 1st of Feb pump and dump took us to a roughly $1.8 - $2 and was very well respected. If we now use the same fib extension over the recent local top and bottom, we get to the same level as 4,236 fib. extension (2nd Feb.- 14th April) would take us, and that is $4.9-$5.3 area. I don't belive that is expected area is the top yet, but it is where we could expect this pattern to repeat itself for the final time (3 phases), before with a breakout to a $8-$10
I am not a financial advisor and non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
The Great Decoupling - BTCUSD vs. US30This chart illustrates Bitcoins performance vs. the US30 stock index.
In many ways it resembles the BTCUSD chart, which supports the idea that there is a correlation between US equities and Bitcoin price.
A key difference obviously is that if BTC were to go flat while stock prices climbed, the "price" on this chart would drop as BTCUSD was being outperformed by the US30. On the other hand, if stock prices dropped while BTCUSD was flat, this chart would show a rally.
Compared to the US30, BTC is showing a great deal of strength this Q, having broken out of it's downtrend, confirming bullish market structure and just this week, printing another higher high to confirm trend continuation (assuming this week closes bullish).
This chart will be one to watch as the decoupling narrative swirls in the coming months and years. It seems inevitable at this point, that Bitcoin is here to stay, and this chart will tell us all we need to know about how it's performing vs. US equities and to an extent, global markets as a whole.
Overlooking IndicatorsTop cap and Average Cap by aaMonkey
Average cap is the "cumulative sum of the daily Market Cap values divided by the age of the market in days" - aamonkey
Top cap is the "Average Cap multiplied by 35" - aamonkey
I assume this multiplication value can be altered and should be for other coins but i decided to leave it to seem it the same for BTC and ETH since they are extremely correlated.
Great scripts..
I am long Ethereum
BitcoinWarren Buffet once referred to Bitcoin as "Rat Poison Squared."
I'm beginning to think that he is right , though not in the context he was using.
Bitcoin is coupled with nearly every altcoin out there , and on many exchanges is a NECESSARY medium for the exchange and trade of these altcoins , as many have not been made into base currencies directly correlated with Fiat.
While many of these altcoins have verified use cases , and some have Dapp's , Bitcoin transactions take a long time relative to nearly every other coin , clocking in at 20-60 minutes. On blockchain.com , a popular wallet service , the transfer speed can be sped up for a FEE.
Using an analogy , Bitcoin is very much like the first version of a new car model from a new car company. It has cool features , but smart money doesn't buy that first model. Other, faster , more useful iterations have emerged - that could in theory boom if they are not sucked under the water as Bitcoin finally goes under. IF bitcoin survives at a price higher than a few hundred dollars , I would be convinced at that point of market manipulation. It's worth is HIGHLY overestimated.
Bitcoin mining is bad for the ecosystem , demands tremendous amounts of energy from a world in an energy crisis , and is good for what exactly??
The coupling of Bitcoin with these other , useable currencies creates an effect where the direction of Bitcoin becomes the direction of the market, and it is arguable that Bitcoin is in a place from which it cannot return. Mining power has become increasingly consolidated , which is a move towards the very centralization it was intended to avoid.
Prevailing theory seems to be that the value of Bitcoin is overvalued at 3k , and is determined solely by investment speculation.
If Bitcoin is not to take the entire concept of digital currency down , decoupling cannot happen soon enough. One could argue that it's best use case is as a parasite.
Caveat Emptor.
Darth Vader finds your lack of faith disturbingI'm ashamed. Embarrassed. I don't want to tell people I dabbled in crypto.
The main reason is the weakness and lack of faith within the crypto community itself.
It hamstrings itself at every opportunity; shorts constantly, can't sustain bullish activity for more than 5 contiguous minutes.
What are you doing?? Collecting 1% and day trading.
Recent studies show that the amount of crypto press multiplies in times of negative activity , and despite claims of market manipulation, the far greater threat are your weak , trembling hands that hit the sell button every time you see green.
Pathetic.
If crypto fails it is because it failed s a cooperative community.
The worlds premier financial services disavowed.
Of course this is a threat to government , and they may play a role , but it is small; crypto is still of and by the people involved. Failure to maintain BTC above 4k when an ASIAN session set it up to get there is also pathetic. They (those involved in mining) have had to sell machines for scrap but have more confidence in an overall positive outcome than the trembling westerner.
Your kids still want crypto for Christmas. Kids tend to be pretty smart , being not far removed from education, at this point taught coding in school, and may have greater insight than the fools destroying the concept of something anti-globalization.
What is especially galling is that the weakest hands are the ones otherwise subject to a fractional reserve banking system in countries like the U.S. for example, that are trillions of dollars in debt.
There is a day coming worse than '08. And when it does the government will bail out banks again , because the banks are so greedy they lend out money that doesn't rightly belong to them , and when the machine breaks the Federal reserve PRINTS MONEY.
WAKE UP AND DO SOmETHING!!!!! RAISE THE BAR FOR ONCE. No, 2017 is unlikely to repeat in that it will not be a parabolic rise in just a few months, but rather a slower yet permanent rise if you would simply allow it to happen. By you I mean EVERYONE involved in finances at all who can see their reflection in the mirror.
If this was a team , you went undefeated in '17 only to lose every game in '18. I'm the guy yelling in the locker room , because I cannot and do not understand such behavior and do not want to.
This IS a community , and while everyone wants to make money , it is painfully obvious that the self inflicted wounds just keep on coming.
YOU just failed to break a 4k barrier for BTC - forget metrics that is ALL psychology , and it happened because you short sold and ran. Enjoy your short term capital gains tax.
Finally, why in the f%$% does every other major coin have to be directed by Bitcoin? Are people just too stupid to understand the differences in fundamentals and use cases?? One ring to rule them all, and it's that one?? Equally pathetic.
Tax headlines scare you off?? You suck.
Bad press? You suck. Do some research . The bad press is a ploy by big money to get YOU to sell, you , the guy who gets hurt , so that the absurdly wealthy can buy in cheaper.
Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat.
** I am not a financial advisor and the above should be construed as a rant.**