Shorting EURAUD for a big moveLast week I shorted EURAUD at 1.56 and I am keen to do the same this week. This pair has been resisted over the last 2 weeks. I am hoping for one last challenge to complete the deep crab at 1.56. I will leave targets open because these kind of trades will usually result in a 200-300 pip move.
Deep Crab
Aussie-Skrilla Key extension and resistance level The double top formation, which is circled on the left shoulder, is a major point of resistance and support on multiple points in the entire instrument. This point is also a 2.414 Fibonacci extension level. Also, on the 4 and 1 hour charts, there is a Deep Crab harmonic pattern, which would suggest a possible bullish rally. I will set my stop at 0.71206 since this is another strong level of former resistance. I will enter the trade upon opening, unless the market gives an aggressively bearish sentiment.
Petronet LNG losing out - Bearish Deep Crab PatternIt confirms a Bearish Deep Crab Pattern, and now I expect profit booking at this level and the price should hit the first target of 226 and then T2 213. Stoploss should be placed at 247.50. Duration to achieve target 1 is 3-5 days.
Good time to short this one.
EURUSD Short: 2 Very High Confluency PRZ'sEURUSD is approaching an area of highly confluent short opportunities. I have broken the zones into 2 separate PRZ's to make the boundaries more distinct. I have a short entry at the top of the first PRZ with a SL outside PRZ2. Target placed just above the ab terminus which would coincide with .618cd. Reasoning for each PRZ is broken out below.
PRZ1 Confluence:
Missed Weekly Pivot
Bearish Crab Completion
Bearish Butterfly Completion
1.5ab=cd
1.618ab=cd
1.786ab=cd
Missed Daily Pivot
0.5XA Retracement
0.5AB Retracement
Bearish Knoxville Divergence Printed
PRZ2 Confluence:
Bearish Crab Completion 1
Bearish Crab Completion 2
0.618AB Retracement
If entry is triggered and target is achieved, I will be looking for bullish opportunities around the deep crab completion level near 1.06
QUICK ANALYSIS: EURUSD: Looking for Triangle ConfirmationFollowing on the post I did recently where I first suggested the idea of a triangle forming in this pair upon the completion of a Gartley pattern (see Related Ideas: "UPDATE #2 SHORT ANALYSIS: EURUSD: Catching some pips down") that failed, the triangle idea is still valid but now there is a POTENTIAL bat pattern that is almost completed. When/if this bat gets completed and prices start to rise without breaking the X point of the bat, then the triangle is intact and the D point of the triangle would be confirmed.
4HR Chart Showing Overview Of The Possible Triangle And My Projections
As many of you following my posts know, I think ahead a few steps before the market and do studies as to what the future price action may look like. This is something I do in order to prepare for the future price movements if they go accordingly. Here is another example of this. Here you can see the triangle pattern that would complete the wave (b) of the larger wave (B). Remember that wave b's are corrective in nature so have tendencies toward complex patterns like triangles. Once the wave (b) and the triangle were to be completed, then of course, wave (c) would commence. In my study, wave (c) would reach towards the bottom TL of a larger triangle seen better on the DAILY TF. This price action would also form a bullish DEEP crab pattern that would also complete near that lower TL.
MY TRADE PLAN
Upon the bat completion as in the main chart above, I will be looking to go LONG for the completion of the triangle and Leg E. When the Leg E has completed, I'll be looking to go SHORT for the wave (c)
*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all constructive comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.
Long EURNZD: 10 Reasons!EURNZD is completing a conglomerate of potential harmonic patterns to produce a highly confluent kill zone. In addition to a host of pattern completions, there is added support from a long term trendline and another strong S/R area further below price. SL is placed below the S/R area and targets placed at the .382 and .614 retracement of CD.
Confluence in the PRZ:
1. Bullish Gartley pattern completion
2. Bullish crab pattern completion
3. Bullish deep crab pattern completion
4. Bullish butterfly pattern completion
5. 2BC Projection
6. .786XA
7. 2.13AB=CD (Coincides with its .886AB reciprocal ratio)
8. 2.618BC Projection
9. Long-term trendline support
10. Strong S/R area
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TRADE: USDCAD: BUY@1.30780 Still looking For the end of Wave 2I'm taking this LONG trade because I still strongly believe that we are in a wave 2 of (5). I'm just looking for where this wave 2 MIGHT end. Do I believe it could be here? Yes, It could be. But I am well aware that the bearish nature of the price action does not bear that out. So why am I taking this trade?
The breaking of that BIG long term triangle is the reason we are seeing this bearish move down. A break of that triangle brought in the sellers selling on that break. If you trade triangles, then you know that the height of the triangle is the profit target. Well, that is also where we are at now. The AB=CD stemming from that triangle has been reached which is the triangle profit target. There is also a completed bullish crab pattern here and also is still within the PRZ of the completed bullish DEEP crab I posted earlier. In addition, prices ARE now within the "Goldilocks zone" where reversals often happen. It is now sitting (as of the time of this posting) at the .707 retracement of wave 1. So even if this is NOT the end of the wave 2 down, it still seems to be a good place to take a LONG trade.
Here's a the expanded view of the 1Hr chart above:
4Hr Chart Showing 2 POTENTIAL Patterns
This chart shows a POTENTIAL bullish bat and a bullish butterfly both ending near the .886. If the trade I am taking now fails, then I will be looking towards these to pattern to find the next possible points where wave 2 may end.
MY TRADE PLAN
This is very much a counter-trend trade, I am keeping stops tight. If prices should break the .786 retracement, I will close the trade and wait for the completion of the POTENTIAL bullish bat or the butterfly as seen in the 4Hr chart before possibly taking another LONG trade.
*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all constructive comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.
AUDCAD T2 Achieved: Now Short at Bearish Deep CrabAUDCAD has achieved T2 of the bullish crab idea that I recently published (see below) and has now completed a bearish deep crab pattern. The PA has respected the 1.618 projection of xa and it is time to look for a short entry.
Confluence in the PRZ:
1. Bearish Deep Crab Completion
2. Weekly Pivot
3. September, 2015 Pivot
4. .618CD (Bullish Crab Target)
5. 1.5ab=cd; upper limit
6. 1.41ab=cd; lower limit
Target set at confluence between .618cd and the new weekly pivot.
Bullish Crab Idea:
MSFT Short: Harmonic Confluence in Triple 3 CorrectionMSFT is consolidating after bearish price action in what appears to be a sideways combination corrective pattern. Regardless of EW count, there are multiple congruent harmonic patterns that if completed will be met with significant trendline resistance, helping to drive price down. List of confluence in PRZ is listed below.
PRZ Confluence:
1. Two Bearish Butterflies
2. Bearish Crab
3. 1.13ab=cd (Reciprocal of .886 c point, Green)
4. 2ab=cd (Blue)
5. Bearish Deep Crab
6. .707 & .786 Wave 3 Levels
7. Two Structural S/R Levels
8. Trend line Resistance
TRADE: GBPUSD: BUY@1.52522 Completed Bullish Deep Crab + ChannelThis pair has been trading in a descending channel for the past few days and still has some more downside to go. But for now, there is a COMPLETED bullish deep crab pattern with it's PRZ down by the bottom of the channel. Within this trading channel, I have marked out its' ABCDE points and this crab is near the C point of the channel. Buying at 1.52522 would be in the PRZ of this crab and confluence with the bottom of the channel. Projecting that this point would only be Point C, the odds are good that prices will head back up into the top of the channel and form Point D and then descend back down again.
MY TRADE PLAN
I will take a LONG position ONLY if prices do get to the bottom of the channel whcih would be testing the PRZ of this deep crab.
*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all constructive comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.
UPDATE #1: EURUSD: All Roads Lead to Wave 3. Added Deep CrabIn my last post on this pair (see Related Ideas: " ANALYSIS: EURUSD: All Roads Lead To A Wave 3"), I identified a bullish Gartley and a bearish butterfly patterns. In this update, I have removed the bullish Gartley as I do not think it is relevant anymore although it is STILL valid. But as per my possible updated wave count, I don't see prices heading any lower to complete that Gartley. That's why I have removed it. So what you see here is that I have added a POTENTIAL Bearish Deep Crab pattern that will end nearby the bearish butterfly completion as well.
Be careful not to get over-enthusiastic on any trade because this pair is in consolidation mode and therefore prices will swing back and forth. This is what my possible wave count shows. Before either of these 2 patterns will complete, we should see this swinging PA in the form of a smaller contracting triangle before breaking out to the upside to head towards the upper trend line of the larger contracting triangle and the pattern completions.
What's important to keep in mind always is the bigger picture. All this PA is happening within the larger contracting triangle pattern consolidation on the DAILY TF.
Currently, I am LONG and have been holding LONG positions on this pair for weeks now. Although this pair is showing signs of moving upwards within the contracting triangle consolidation (DAILY TF), I am not adding anymore LONGS as I don't need to. But having said that, this is a good place to get LONG if you want to because prices are near the bottom of the larger contracting triangle and showing signs of moving upwards. Also, I do not see any breakout to the downside happening. That's NOT to say it can't happen. Anything can happen.
*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all comments are welcome.