ETHUSD Daily TA Neutral BearishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 35% ETH, 65% Cash. *IMPORTANT: If ETH breaks down below $775.83 support then it will likely retest the uptrend line from February 2017 at ~$300 for the first time since July 2020. If this happens, it would imply that all of ETH's value after March 2020 came from Covid-19 stimulus + 0% interest rate environment + quantitative easing; rather than from the vast DeFi/NFT network comprised of OpenSea, Yearn.Finance, Metamask, Uniswap, Moonpay, Transak, Chainlink, Polygon, etc. This would obviously be a death blow to the industry and would surely liquidate a majority of leveraged positions.* **Chairman Pow spent a solid four hours fielding rhetorical questions and scathing criticisms from the Senate Banking Committee regarding the Fed's response to inflation today. He handled it very well and stayed in line with his tone and perspective from last week's FOMC meeting. He mentioned that cryptocurrencies currently present no systemic risk to the economy but that they (Fed) are paying close attention to it (most likely DeFi and a CBDC). He also mentioned that the Fed funds rate will likely have to be beyond 2.5% to restore price stability and that markets are responding appropriately to the Fed's 'reaction function' and that the economy can handle even higher rates. He emphasized that a recession is not the Fed's intention and can still be avoided, but that is yet to be determined and will likely find clarity closer to the Fed meeting later this year (09/20-09/21).** Price is currently defending $1k at $1078 as it attempts to continue the relief rally by testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 as resistance at ~$1300. Volume remains Moderate and is currently on track to favor sellers for a third consecutive session if it can close today in the red; it is also on track to shrink for a fifth consecutive session which implies that a breakout/breakdown is likely pending. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $886, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 26 as it tests the uptrend line from 01/22/22 as support after forming a peak at 30. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending sideways at 46.76 resistance; if it breaks below 41 it will likely be a bearish crossover. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up slightly at -244, if it can break above -230 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 52 as Price is attempting a correction/reversal, this is neutral at the moment; however, if ADX can form a peak and trend down as Price continues up then it would be bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 as resistance at ~$1300. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely formally test $775.83 support for the first time since breaking above it in January 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1265.
