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Delta

Stock Analysis: DALBig Picture Price action has been climbing off the lower low of March 7th; currently in sideways consolidation with a series of large bullish engulfing candles. Price action has run into our 42.71 resistance area. Price needs to break above the Feb 14th high to make a higher high. As we breakdown the price action layers we see that the price ran into our supply area after a series of two gaps. I would be expecting some retracement back towards the 41.50 - 41.00 based on the psychology of the candles. 38.68 would be the ideal downside target and that would also close some of the recent gaps; however leaving one open around the 33 area. Could be setting up for some short positions. Despite the economy opening up and the mass assumption that 'demand' will be of major significance it throws caution to the wind that 'some' may decide to utilize other means of transportation; especially with the continuous rounds of flight delays and cancellations due to staffing shortages, hours of waiting on the phone to speak to someone, inflation continuing to climb, and incomes being tested with everything around them slowly eating into their buying power. This may also cause some families to put off vacations in general to a later time or reduce the duration of travels, etc. There could be some shorting opportunities on both intraday and swing day outlooks within the ranges above; feel free to annotate your charts Distance between Price and Moving Averages: SMA20 11.02% SMA50 9.91% SMA200 6.18%
NYSE:DALShort
by bsdvs23
13
Delta Air Lines (NYSE: $DAL) Set For Upwards Rally! ✈️Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Airline and Refinery. Its domestic network centered on core hubs in Atlanta, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Detroit, and Salt Lake City, as well as coastal hub positions in Boston, Los Angeles, New York-LaGuardia, New York-JFK, and Seattle; and international network centered on hubs and market presence in Amsterdam, Mexico City, London-Heathrow, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, and Seoul-Incheon. The company sells its tickets through various distribution channels, including delta.com and the Fly Delta app, reservations, online travel agencies, traditional brick and mortar, and other agencies. It also provides aircraft maintenance and engineering support, repair, and overhaul services; and vacation packages to third-party consumers, as well as aircraft charters, and management and programs. The company operates through a fleet of approximately 1,200 aircrafts. Delta Air Lines, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia.
NYSE:DALLong
by Bullishcharts
1
Market Positioning on Q's and SPY$SPY Gamma Environment: Positive (289mn) Key Gamma Levels: 5th 465 - R3 resistance 460 - R2 resistance 458 - R1 resistance 452 - S1 (First Support) 450 - S2 (Second Support) 447 - S3 (Third Support) Views: Vix no longer remains bid maintains a clear path below 18, given the current stats and the 100% spike the past would suggest we don’t see another spike till mid-2023. That being said, the key catalysts for vix that remain include an unexpected fed hike intra meeting. Major escalations from Russia on the Ukraine side. VIX levels based volatility range of +1.2%/-1.2%, Negative gamma environment volatility is likely to continue to be more muted given the VIX’s current levels and as hedges begin to wind down. SPY pushed into negative gamma territory (short term) and long term (now at $-1.4Bn, down from $1.03bn yesterday looking two months forward). We now look ahead with a cautious view on direction as we reach a tilt on direction. There still remains opportunity for bulls to take this up as the negative gamma environment skew provides short term charm flows in favour of bulls should we stagnate. Call volumes -16% and put volumes -2% with puts now up to 2.2x the volume of calls. Following this drawdown there provides room as mentioned above to give a move higher should call buyers begin to step in. Note though that this volume is isolated to SPX and so in this case the underlying seems to have been the main driver in indices action. As a result we place an eye on TSLA/AAPL/MSFT contracts to see if volume continues to push in as there is likely to be some more put unwind in these names. As calls are likely to have unwound for the most part since last week already. 10 Delta Put premiums (465C) vs call IV (at the 10 delta, 445P) across duration remain at 1.1x on an IV basis (at parity), the skew here suggests puts are now much more favourable than before (explaining the increase in negative positioning) vs calls and even more so in the short term, so we expect some resistance going lower than 450 due to negative positioning at 452. -2% on calls -16% on puts OrderFlow For order flow perspective levels please see the levels provided in the chart. See these lines as “barriers” to overcome and if done then price can be “accepted” into areas where previous buyers (Navajo white = up volume) and sellers (purple = down volume) wanted to engage up until points where there are much greater levels of volume. These are areas that you can consider as greater points of resistance. Calls/Puts Volume Bull Scenario Above 4600 (with continuous bid at 4580) ($ES) additional call buying to increase up the chain at further expiries and up the chain would be needed to continue this drive up. Note the skew toward call buying has lightened dramatically but a portion of short date puts are still set to unwind (see screenshot). The majority of flow is likely to be driven by TAAN. (TSLA/AAPL/AMD/NVDA) given they attributed for ~3million contracts. Continuous exhaustion @ 4600 (we are at 4581 as of writing - having found brief support at 4520) in the first 30 mins defines whether there is a clear aggressive direction and a move above could set us up for a hold above 4600 should positioning continue to drive higher. VIX crush below 18 will also help produce the environment we expect. Bear Scenario If we maintain below 4550 in particular we’re interested in further sell off as this level provides a key level down. That being said this will be a difficult area to break. A break below this could generate sell down to 4500 as Vanna flows above drive us lower and with put gamma at 4500 and under increases exponentially. This begins to act as a magnet to price with selling intensifying from above and below. We would need to see call buying decline in AAPL/TSLA as well as semi weakness. VIX climbing over 20 and hold above 22 then signs that VIX is being bid and presence of further downward trend are present are increasingly there. We would also need to see some weakness in big tech particularly and strength in gold miners and other precious metal cos (NEM, GLD,SLV etc) $QQQ Gamma Environment: Positive (-74m) Key Gamma Levels 5th 375 - R3 (NQ -15371.0) 370 - R2 (NQ - 15166.0) 369 - R1 (NQ - 15125.0) 368 - S1 (NQ - 15084.0) 365- S2 (NQ - 14962.0) 360 - S3 (NQ - 14757.0) Views: Q’s positioning moved out of negative territory with AAPL buyback news leading the charge higher the move of which was a result of negative deltas that had to be bought back. Concentration at 375 is an area that could provide more pull higher should we break higher. Put IV to call IV is even (Puts 1.1 vs Calls ) the 10+/10- Delta (379 vs 359). Despite the drawdown puts are reasonably priced vs calls and as a result we may expect more drawdown should puts continue to increase down the chain. We continue to review VIX and look for this to hold above 20 to determine an increase in puts. (Key themes below still stand) A key eye remains on energy names as we look to see for continued flow out of equities, though this doesn’t seem to be the case. This is important for more drawdown, without strength in commodities we are unlikely to see much lower. We also noted weakness in steel, copper etc though a downtrend is yet to be confirmed. (Unchanged) Bonds: HYG to maintain weakness as will help indicate much lower which seems to be the case thus far. Weakness/Strength in Gold & Oil should help with this continued upside. Note that the flow into energy stocks whilst initially seemed to be increasing still seems muted so this hesitance may be off the back of worry heading into the next business cycle where demand destruction is expected. Another indicator being china home growth. FANG (Big Tech) had 124% increase in net positioning $490mn net gamma from $218mn, this positioning is an outlier in comparison to prior levels and is now reaching zones similar to February where we achieved a major rally. With breadth improving too this provides an extra boost and likely move higher to the Qs, though the window remains short for this week. A continuous bid at 370 (15166.0) is key to demonstrate lack of bearish bias and unwind of any put flows bought. Maintain a view of AAPL, TSLA, GLD, NEM, HYG, CRWD, DOCN, PANW, ARK, XOM, XOP, SLV with the commentary above in mind. OrderFlow For order flow perspective levels please see the levels provided in the chart. See these lines as “barriers” to overcome and if done then price can be “accepted” into areas where previous buyers and sellers wanted to engage up until points where there are much greater levels of volume. These are areas that you can consider as greater points of resistance. Bull Scenario If we can hold above 370 (15166.0) with a move higher into (ideally above) 375 (15371.0) into the close, additional gamma levels would need to increase further( particularly at the 370 mark) up the chain and as a result positive deltas would need to bought higher. The negative gamma in short duration below should also continue its last legs and decay with this effect resulting in pops in the final market hours. We would also want to see the VIX continue to drawdown and maintain below 18. Bear Scenario Maintaining below 368 (15084.0) should result in the decline down to 365 (14962.0) and 360 (14757.0) potentially on the cards should VIX remained elevated with a gradual increase. Strength in commodities and weakness in AAPL/TSLA in particular especially at 177.5 will demonstrate a lack of bias to the upside. As mentioned above we would want to see SLV, XAUUSD and CL (Oil) get a bid (noted in call vs put volumes as of late). Any questions, Hit me up on twitter @Vexxly. Appendix: Key Terms: Key Gamma Levels: Areas to identify for key support and resistance i.e. a call wall can act as a resistance zone as call buyers sell as we reach closer to the money and so MMs will re-hedge accordingly Negative Gamma = Increased volatility Why? Because MMs are enhancing volatility and flows are supportive of direction Positive Gamma = Reduced volatility Why? Because MMs are suppressing volatility and flows are against of direction Gamma Environment (Negative/ Positive) Vol Trigger (Where gamma flips through a key negative level and reinforces flow, as MMs re-hedge) R1/R2 resistance - resistance level one etc S1/S2 support - support level one/two etc Note: This information was never intended nor will ever be considered a place to give or receive investment advice. This information was created for the sole purpose for education and fun. Anything said by anyone on this commentary should never be taken as investment advice. Do your own due diligence before making any decisions to invest your money and seek investment advice from a registered advisor should you choose to do so.
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by vexxly
13
QQQ 336/332 Put Spread (Mar 7)This was an order that I had input this morning when going through the my broad market charts. Reasoning is below: 1. Clear support at 352.75 (White line) 2. Long term bullishness on equities, especially if inflation continues. Caveat to this is that with rising rates I do think Tech will feel the pain more than other names. As such this position is 1/2 my usual size. 3. Yellow line (338) identified as recent low, and middle of a lower trading range from Apr / May. Yellow line then acts as target for the short leg. I.e if I take this trade, the short leg must be below this. As such, I found the 336/332 spread that paid 10% Return on Margin (or risk) and was below my target. Set the order this morning and it filled a few minutes ago as the market came down a bit. Questions, Comments, Leave em below!
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by ThetaTrades
43
Scary but also beautiful BTCScary but also beautiful! How is it possible? We see clear downtrend and now it’s confirmed also by Options Sentiment indicator at the bottom (both signals aligned - more volume in Put Options than Calls (orange vertical bars) & red background showing sentiment of Options indicator. Both are Bearish now. But when BTC will reverse (and it will happen somewhen in future) we have so many untested Virgin VPOCs to fill in! And believe me - Virgins are always retested 😉 Last but not least - check blue Volume Zone from VSA Scanner, where we’re close to its’ top edge. Reversal point? I am NOT entering Long (yet), but I keep closely observing BTC. Options combined with VSA are complete trading suite if properly used. I've created tools available for everyone which are universal (works on multiple types of instruments). Start getting your edge in trading today!
CME:BTC1!
by skyline-trader
3
Whispers from Options - BTCWe observe weakness/Bears dominating BTC market recently. Options Sentiment Indicator is giving mixed signals (overall we see bullish sentiment from Options traders but more volume is within PUT options still). 4 Virgin VPOCs are awaiting retest and are located above current price in comparison to 1 VPOC below current price - Bullish pressure area of 46000 is major/key level, worth observing from Options OrderBook of contracts expiring in 26 days (28th January 2022) - there are no strong resistance levels (!!) - Bullish pressure. However major support levels (a lot of CALL orders awaiting) are relatively low - 35,36 k on H4 we see multiple Demand Signals coming from VSA Scanner software near 46 000 level
CME:BTC1!
by skyline-trader
Options Medium-term Week Review Let's jump to analyse the data from Options market and scan main markets from D1 timeframe perspective: DAX - opposite signals from Options flow, as in general we have recently present Bullish sentiment for last 3 sessions, but Option Volume flow still points to Bearish signal (as PUT Volume aka red line is higher/above CALL Volume aka green line). Virgin VPOCs are present on both sides - so above and below current price level. On last session DAX broke significant S/R Level (identified by balance point where PUT and CALL Volume were equal - my indicator is pointing such moments in time). As long as we're above 15616, price should go in direction of Virgins on 15907 and 16165. However careful observation is required further on German Index. S&P500 - Bullish sentiment from Options flow appeared recently and CALL Volume is increasing in comparison to PUT Volume - when green line moves above red line it will confirm fully Bullish sentiment. On the other hand we have multiple Virgin VPOCs levels below current price, what add odds to Bears Camp. Major Support Area is 4477.75-4507 zone. Gold - from quite a long time we see Bullish sentiment from Options Flow and PUT Volume should be soon lower than CALL Volume what adds confluence to Bullish move. Major Support zone is now 1783.5-1795.3 while still we have multiple Virgin VPOCs to retest above current price Level. Gold should climb up in the area of last major top on D1, around 1875. Oil - Bullish sentiment from Options flow and recently PUT Volume reached balance vs CALL Volume. It opens road for up move. Currently we're on major resistance (73.79) so small correction could appear, but overall Oil prices should continue climb up. Next major resistance is on 78.45 Just for reference, blue lines are Virgin VPOCs and red lines are major S/R Levels marked in moment of time where PUT Volume was equal to CALL Volume from Options flow. Options are giving us a big edge, when only we can properly analyse the data coming out of this market. My tools are analysing it and display end-results in fully objective way for newbie traders as well as for experienced ones. Please bear in mind, I am not predicting future but write assumptions only that can happen but doesn't need to. Trader need to be prepared for different scenarios.
COMEX:GC1!
by skyline-trader
Canadian dollar buoyed by risk sentimentThe Omicron variant continues to rage through Europe and the US, but the markets are in a positive mood. Why? There is a feeling that Omicron is much milder than Delta, which means that a wave of Omicron may get a lot of people sick, but it will not kill thousands and overload hospitals with severely ill patients. Time will tell if this is an accurate diagnosis. In the meantime, the global recovery outlook has improved and commodity prices are higher, which is good news for the Canadian dollar. Risk sentiment has been moving up and down over the past few weeks, depending on the headlines de jour concerning Omicron. Investors have been encouraged by the latest medical reports out of the UK and elsewhere which indicate that Omicron is up to 70% less severe than Delta. The equity markets continue to rise and risk barometers such as the Canadian dollar have moved higher this week. The markets are starting to view Omicron like a storm in a tea cup, but there is good reason not to sigh in relief just yet. First, Omicron is five times more contagious than Delta, which means that unvaccinated people could experience severe symptoms. Second, some reports indicate that Omicron is not necessarily less severe than Delta. Third, the Chinese Sinovac vaccine, which is the only one available for a majority of the world (the developing countries), doesn't appear to be effective against Omicron. In the meantime, the markets have dismissed Omicron as an annoying nuisance, and this rosy outlook could continue into January, barring some grim statistics from a wave of Omicron. Canada's GDP for October rebounded with a gain of 0.8% y/y, up nicely from 0.1% beforehand. The economy has now expanded for five straight months and the BoC is projecting growth in Q4 at 4.0% y/y, as the economy continues to gather steam, despite the challenges of Covid. USD/CAD has support at 1.2756. Below, there is support at 1.2615 There is resistance at 1.2987. Above, there is resistance at 1.3077
by OANDA
DELTA DRONE ALDR What will 2022 bring us? The Delta Drone Group is a major player in the civilian drone sector for professional use. The group’s two core activities: Business solutions: ISS SPOTTER (safety & security), COUNTBOT (automated warehouse stock-counting), ATMOS (events), ROCKETMINE (mines), SAFESPRAYBOT (sanitary aerial spraying) and PARAZERO (on-board security system). Additional services. We provide a complete value chain with a range of services that can either support our solutions or be used independently: regulatory management training drone pilots and solution operators system design and production, including associated software specific missions data processing and archiving The group is deploying a dynamic strategy in international expansion in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Australia I think this company has great potential. Alciatas goals marked NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
ALong
by wallstreetstocks
Options flow are whispering on BTCThe Options Market can inform well in advance about movements that are yet to happen in futures contracts. Looking at the Options with an Exercise Date (expiry) in 22 days at the time of writing the analysis, the conclusions are quite loud and clear: 50,000 - Put Wall level, that is support with 2 times more capital than the other levels 60,000 - Call Wall level -> resistance 65,000 and 70,000 - successive resistance levels We also see some Virgin VPOC points from the past, which only adds strength and confidence to the Bitcoin bullish prediction. All data and levels are based on BTC quotes from CME. I am puzzled by a very large capital located at the level of 50k $ - someone really cares to defend this level at all costs. There is still time for it, so it's worth watching how the situation develops;)
CME:BTC1!Long
by skyline-trader
2
Explaining The Greeks: DELTAIn case you prefer to read the blog version of the report, it is listed below. I have included an example as well. What is DELTA? Delta is one of the four major risk measures in options trading. It measures the amount an options price is affected by a $1 price change in the underlying stock. DELTA is measure on a scale from 0.00 to 1.00 for call options, and 0.00 to -1.00 for put options. Delta is the main component in measuring leverage. This can be done by: (delta/option price)*current stock price. Remember a delta of 0.45 results in a 45 cents change in options prices, which is a $45 change in options value, with every $1 move in stock price. The leverage through this can be huge. As expiration approaches, the delta for in the money options will approach 1.00, whereas, for out of the money options, the delta will approach zero. Delta unofficially is also the probability that the option will expire in the money. EXAMPLE: CASH: $100 Current Stock Price: $25/share Call Option: Strike: 26, Cost: 0.50, DELTA: 0.80 Before expiration the price of the stock rises to $26 per share If you would have out right purchased shares, it would have costed you $100 for 4 shares. If you would have bought two call options it would have costed you $100, and you have the right to 200 shares of stock At expiration your shares, if purchased, would be worth $26 each, or a $4 P/L. At expiration your contract would be in theory worth 1.00, or $100 each, $200 P/L. We can calculate your leverage at purchase to be (0.80/0.50)*25 = 40X leverage PLEASE NOTE: The numbers listed above are extremely unrealistic numbers, I used them for simplicity's sake. PLEASE NOT: You must have sold your option prior to expiration in order to cash out on your gains.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by braydenboyko
Looks like we've got another mystery on our hands.Hey, you guys, look, I know I'm just the dude that carries the bags. If you want to know what happened with GME in January watch this . Most interest to me is the selling of puts It's good to get a basic understanding of Gamma and Vanna exposures for market makers. The important takeaway is "market makers who are long puts, or long gamma, By knowing how market makers will be forced to delta hedge according to changes in price, one can implicitly know where market makers will need to place buy and sell orders" In the video at 4:14 in the video explains why GME has been following the patterns I followed in this chart At this point, I'm fairly certain GME will remain around 180 until Nov15-19 and possible through to the end of the 1yr is when the market makers pnl profile will change to meet the end of 1yr options contracts. so much for free market price discovery. Just wait until you see what I have in store for my next mystery.
NYSE:GMELong
by SPYvsGME