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Demand Zone

Heating oil and gasoline supply remain tightOil demand, driven by China is an area of strength, but a slowing Chinese economy could weaken this. However, OPEC’s resolve to keep markets tight is strong. Petroleum product markets – heating oil and gasoline – are especially tight with inventory significantly below normal and prices have hit ‘golden crosses’ : technical analyst parlance for bullish conditions. Positioning in heating oil futures is a standard deviation above 5-year average after rising by 49% last month1. A combination of rising longs and contracting shorts drove the trend amid a 17% rally in heating oil in the past month1. Heating oil inventory has fallen 15% and inventory is now than a standard deviation below 5-year average2. While not as steep as last year, the 0.8% positive roll yield on heating oil futures marks a break from the pre-2022 historic trend of contango in August3. At 8.6%, the positive front month roll yield on gasoline futures appears larger than seasonally normal (although a positive front month roll is expected at this time of the year)3. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), world oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth. With the post-pandemic rebound running out of steam, and as lacklustre economic conditions, tighter efficiency standards and new electric vehicles weigh on use, growth is forecast to slow to 1 mb/d in 2024. Russian oil exports held steady at around 7.3 mb/d in July, as a 200 kb/d decline in crude oil loadings was offset by higher product flows. Crude exports to China and India eased month on month but accounted for 80% of Russian shipments. Global observed oil inventories declined by 17.3 mb in June, led by the OECD. Non-OECD stocks and oil on water were largely unchanged. OECD industry stocks fell by 14.7 mb, in line with the seasonal trend, to 2,787 mb. Industry stocks were 115.4 mb below the five-year average, with product inventories particularly tight. Preliminary data observed by the IEA suggest global inventories drew further in July and August. Refiners are struggling to keep up with demand growth, as the shift to new feedstocks, outages and high temperatures have forced many operators to run at reduced rates. Tight gasoline and diesel markets have pushed margins to six-month highs. Heating oil (Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel) prices rose 17% in the past month, reflecting this tightness. OPEC+’s aggressive cuts are continuing to tighten the oil market. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary supply cuts have helped oil curves remain in backwardation. Source: 1 Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of 15 August 2023 2 change in inventory over the past 3 months, United States Department of Agriculture as of 15 August 2023 3 Calculated as difference between front month and second month futures prices as of 15 August 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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by aneekaguptaWTE
LUV Weekly Chart Showing Heavy DemandSouthwest Airlines has been going through some turbulence with recent flight rearrangement issues, but for the most part has smoothened out all issues regarding flights. Air Travel Demand is still thriving and growing exponentially, respectively. Southwest is a leader among a few others in Airline Stocks as they have High-Quality Management & Great Financial Strategy (e.g. Fuel hedging) The stock has performed quite poorly since its post-COVID peak of $65 and has retreated nearly 50% while remaining a sound financial base. Southwest has been hovering around this major demand zone at the $30 area. As highlighted in green, this demand zone has repeatedly pushed LUV back up higher, and on this weekly chart, we can see a triple bottom starting to push back higher from this $31 level. This weekly chart prevails a strong Risk/Reward towards Southwest as a swing-trade or LT investment. Southwest has remained a fundamentally strong & sound company as they are the first American Airline Co. to reinstate their dividend. EPS projections are very optimistic for the next several years as demand increases & costs decrease. It would also be likely to see a rotation into the travel / Airlines sector as it has been quite low and non-volatile thru the past half year. Recent PT cuts lead me to believe Funds could be loading up Conclusion: LONG NYSE:LUV through commons Option Play: Credit-Spread : Jan 19, '24 Puts $30-$27.5p
NYSE:LUVLong
by ZachSap
FORD $F | Longer Term Demand Zone Ford, a Popular American AutoMaker has been having a struggling stock performance since its 2021 rally. This stock has continued to rally upwards and melt back down towards this $11-$12 area. What we are witnessing now is a retest of these same levels that previously sent the stock back upwards with volume. I am keeping my eye on Ford at these levels as historically this stock bounces from this demand zone. This demand zone is heavy, as highlighted in green, and will also be having support from a diagonal trendline around the $11.40 level helping support prices of $F. With this large area for support considering the Demand Zone & the diagonal trendline retest, I believe that this area of price levels gives a solid Risk/Reward Entry on a Long Position on $F. A break below this trendline would be a good exit point, as the stock could probably dump underneath heavily. With this Risk/Reward entry point, a swing position can be attractive or a LT entry. I am just pointing out these levels, as I think it can be an interesting area to watch the stock react to, and thought I'd share! Happy Trading!
NYSE:FLong
by ZachSap
Key day tomorrowPrice reacted to the H4 demand but sellers came into play again very strong from the M15 level of the previous post. The expectation was for a reaction but not for a reversal and another break of structure. The only reason for price to do this, is to grab more liquidity and react to the bottom of the 1D/H4 demand, where the M15 level is. That's exactly what I'm expecting to see tomorrow. If not, there's always the possibility that price will break the H4 swing structure and continue down. This would be an important reversal and a show of strength from the USD. If that happens, next week shorts will be in play but for now I don't have enough evidence.
Long
by CirculoForex
Daily swing demand1D -> Even tough price has been bearish for the last couple of weeks and today had an impulsive move down, to me this is still just a pb and I'm expecting price to react to the current daily demand. H4 -> Price is also coming very close to H4 demand, it's not my favourite zone but it's still valid, considering it was responsible for an impulsive reaction. M15 -> There's a demand zone at the bottom of the H4. I'll either take a position from there without confirmation, or I'll wait for a reaction at the top of the zone.
Long
by CirculoForex
1
Chart vs. HeadlinesLet's debunk some headlines like "The Dollar is Bearish!" and dig into the real chart dynamics. On the weekly chart, a bullish trend is evident, despite a retracement that might seem bearish. Always consider the bigger picture. The recent retracement is a mere blip compared to the overall uptrend. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch 🔍 Zoom out and observe the retest happening on the previous high. Keep a close eye on whether the market breaches 145.24. The next crucial level to watch is 152.02. Chart analysis trumps online articles. Don't just read, define your levels strategically. 💡 Daily Chart Insights 💡 Approaching the previous high on the daily chart, counter-trend traders might eye shorting opportunities. However, wait for candlestick confirmation before executing. Personally, I see a breakout trading opportunity, not an aggressive short. 📊 Four Hour Chart Dynamics 📊 New highs surpassing previous structures on the four-hour chart indicate the bullish trend persists. This trend isn't over. One hour chart mirrors this pattern—a break of prior resistance. 📚 Mastering Market Analysis 📚 If you're passionate about analyzing markets like I am, employing clear rules for buying and selling levels is vital. No guessing games. Scan the QR code for our community channel. Engage with like-minded individuals and refine your skills. 💼 Crafting Trading Strategies 💼 Returning to the weekly chart, counter-traders might spot a shorting setup at 149.28 for a Fib-3 Bat setup. On the daily chart, a crab pattern at 150.39 forms, with a Bat pattern completion at 149.16. ⚙️ Shorting Opportunities ⚙️ For those inclined towards shorting, the ABCD pattern on the four-hour chart sets a stage at 147.80. My focus? Buying opportunities. A pullback to 144.02 holds potential for a buying window. 🔎 Immediate Insights 🔎 On the one-hour chart, a closer level of interest stands at 144.46—a promising buying opportunity within the buy zone.
Long
by RaynLim
USD CAD - Demand in control, outlook to 1.40+G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily chart Weekly Chart Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 7+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
Navigating GBP/JPY with Care and Confidence this weekA promising setup for GBP/JPY this week would be to closely monitor the potential supply levels around and keep an eye on any bearish confirmation forming in that region. Additionally, watching for any negative news releases or economic data related to both the British pound and Japanese yen could provide valuable insights into potential price movements. Remember to incorporate risk management strategies and stay adaptable to market conditions throughout the week.
Short
by azizyarfx