Demand Zone
USDCAD possible change in trendUSDCAD
Over the past month, the USDCAD has been in a steady downtrend. On Friday, we observed the swing moves and identified an internal high that could be used as a selling opportunity to continue the downward trend. However, due to recent market changes, we are now considering a potential shift in momentum towards an upward trend. This is because the market has shown a clear sweep of the low and a strong impulse to the upside, surpassing the nearest swing high moves. This suggests the possibility of a trend reversal. Therefore, we plan to sell into our extreme demand area and wait for a confirmation entry to further validate our assumption of a bullish shift in price.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
EURUSD Forecast Navigating Supply and DemandIn our previous EUR/USD technical outlook, we discussed the possibility of the 1.0851 supply level turning into a demand level. On 10th April 2023, the price rejected this level, setting the stage for a push higher.
Chart Analysis: EUR/USD Resistance and Support
The daily EUR/USD chart shows the price reacting off the resistance zone around the 1.10422 level, with a support zone at 1.09098. If this support is invalidated, we can expect the price to test the next support at 1.07088. The 4-hour chart reveals a bearish divergence, and the 1-hour chart indicates a potential pull-back with the MACD below its zero line.
Economic News Impacting EUR/USD
The Euro will be affected by the ZEW economic sentiment and higher Euro Area inflation in the coming week. These factors, alongside hawkish ECB rhetoric, may impact the EUR/USD pair in the short term. The currency pair recently hit a yearly high of 1.1075, but a consolidation period may be needed before further upward movement.
Stay updated on the latest EUR/USD news and analysis by checking out real-time rates, interactive charts, and expert insights.
Upcoming Economic News
Keep an eye on the economic news scheduled for the week, including:
Mon, Apr 17: USD Empire State Manufacturing Index & EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Tue, Apr 18: EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Thu, Apr 20: USD Unemployment Claims, USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks, and USD Existing Home Sales
Fri, Apr 21: EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI, EUR French Flash Services PMI, EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI, EUR German Flash Services PMI, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI, EUR Flash Services PMI, USD Flash Manufacturing PMI, and USD Flash Services PMI
By monitoring technical analysis and upcoming news, traders can make more informed trading decisions in the EUR/USD market.
USD JPY - Back on the move upG'day,
Master Key for zones
Black = Yearly
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Pink = Three, Four Day
Orange = Daily
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual.
Below are some of the take aways from the video.
Daily Chart
Weekly chart
Monthly Chart
Let me know your thoughts and analysis. Each opinion is valid where research is conducted.
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Bitcoin Short-Term Support & Resistance AnalysisPrices move because of supply and demand . When demand is greater than supply, prices rise. When supply is greater than demand, prices fall. Sometimes, prices will move sideways as both supply and demand are in equilibrium.
When support and resistance lines are broken, there is a high possibility of a significant uptrend in that direction. Be aware of the stop-loss area when trading on margin
ⓡ Resistance Line 30221$
ⓢ Support Line 28580$
ⓢ Support Line 28216$
ⓢ Support Line 27867$
The above price level represents an important tipping point, not an absolute analysis for buying and selling. You must be careful about your investment decisions.
Thank you for reading my poor analysi
EUR/USD Short-term & Longterm IdeasWhats up TV community. just want to share with you guys my view on EURUSD. From yearly Topdown to Daily.
We touched the Yearly Demand level & the 3Month Chart has a strong bullish candle which engulfed the previous bearish candle. (some bull signals) on Monthly timeframe we eliminated the last Supply CP and we created nice demand level with imbalance, which indicates more bulls kicking in. Now we jump to Daily timeframe and use our fresh demand levels to jump into the rally .
Never forget one major thing. Follow your trading plan. i am just sharing ideas. If something big happens with fundamentals technicals can change never forget that.
Enjoy your trading.
XAUUSD FALLING WEDGE BREAKOUTHello traders,
Gold has broke out of the falling wedge pattern, the fair value gap has been filled and the chart is balanced. Gold has been forming a higher highs and higher lows which is a plus for the Pattern. Live a like and comment down below what you think about my analysis.
Enjoy!
NAS100 Weak momentum observed 👀Hello traders,
Nas has been bullish for a while trading up making a higher high and higher lows, as you can see in the chart it has recenlty failed to make a higher high. Nas could potentially drop to around 12530.00 if it breaks the channel and the Lower low. Leave a like and comment down below your thoughts on my anlaysis.
Cheers 🥂
📊Market Structure Breakdowns Pt.1Not every pattern or indicator is a confirmation that you should enter a trade. Understanding the market structure is key and in these series we will explain how to read a Bullish and Bearish market structure formation with multiple indicators/strategies and what you should look for before entering a trade. The markets are either trending up or down until they experience a reversal in the opposite direction. Do not fight the trend, trade alongside with it's direction until a confirmation of reversal. It is not about being right, it is about trading on the correct side of the trend.
📈Bullish Market Structure
A bullish market structure is characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating that buyers are in control and there is a strong demand in the market with a strong upward momentum. Connecting the swing lows and swing highs will be a clear indicator of bulls pushing the price higher on each level and flipping the previous resistance into a support zone. A good way to trade a chart pattern such as a falling wedge, is to wait for the price to reach around the zone of support. That will indicate the end of the pattern and will give the best possible entry. To have confirmation of this, make sure that you are looking at the volume. When the end of the the falling wedge approachses the previous resistance turned-into-support, you should see volume coming inside the market to push the price higher. One key thing you must understand is that when resistance lines are crossed, they become new support and the cycle repeats until the trend break.
📉Bearish Market Structure
A bearish market structure in the other hand, has a series of lower higher and lower lows, indicating that the sellers are in control and there is a strong downward momentum in the market. In this case, we will be looking for short opportunities. The same confirmation of a short is the selling pressure that can be characterized by negative delta volume. To confirm a trend line as true, it should have at least 3 touches where the price rejected from back into a support zone. The market structure is not symmetrical, with perfect patterns that completely respect each and every line you draw. Most patterns and indicators look asymmetrical and have a skewness and you should adapt to it. The big players are waiting for you to place your stop loss right above your trend line or pattern then push the price right above it so you close your position and they get their orders filled to push the prices lower. Stop hunting is one of the most important things you need to understand, until the market makes a Higher High of an important level, the market has not changed structure and it's still trending downwards.
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Bitcoin Short-Term Support & Resistance AnalysisPrices move because of supply and demand . When demand is greater than supply, prices rise. When supply is greater than demand, prices fall. Sometimes, prices will move sideways as both supply and demand are in equilibrium.
When support and resistance lines are broken, there is a high possibility of a significant uptrend in that direction. Be aware of the stop-loss area when trading on margin
ⓡ Resistance Line 28952$
ⓡ Resistance Line 28549$
ⓡ Resistance Line 28300$
ⓢ Support Line 27881$
ⓢ Support Line 27617$
The above price level represents an important tipping point, not an absolute analysis for buying and selling. You must be careful about your investment decisions.
Thank you for reading my poor analysi
Revolutionary Insights into the EURUSD Bull MarketThe EURUSD currency pair has maintained a bullish trend on the daily chart despite multiple rejections at various supply zones. The price action is still above the 50-SMA and 200-SMA, indicating a bullish trend. However, the pair shows bearish reversal signals on the daily timeframe with a down candle close below the 2nd supply zone, and it's uncertain whether the price will pull back to the anticipated demand zone.
The 4-hour chart shows signs of weakness, with the RSI displaying divergence, while the 1-hour chart indicates a gradual fading of bullish pressure. The 50-SMA on both charts may act as support for the bullish trend. Two targets have been set at 1.03989 and 1.01158, respectively, with the first demand zone at 1.06824.
High-impact news for the US Dollar is expected to affect the currency pair. The key takeaway is to keep an eye on the 50-SMA and 200-SMA as indicators of the bullish trend and be prepared for potential changes in the trend if the price breaks support levels.
GOLD Bullish Momentum (LONG IDEA)
The XAU/USD pair appears to be in a bullish momentum, as evidenced by the higher highs and higher lows seen on the chart. Additionally, the price is moving within an upward trend channel, creating a bullish triangle for accumulation before a potential breakout.
Currently, the price has made a higher high and is undergoing a correction. It is essential to wait for the price to reach the observed zones before making any trading decisions.
These zones are particularly strong due to the presence of Fibonacci clusters. As such, when the price reaches these zones, it is crucial to watch for the formation of bullish candlestick patterns such as pin bars, inside bars, engulfing patterns, and dojis.
Upon the appearance of these signals, a long order can be considered with a target of a 4:1 reward-to-risk ratio. By risking 1% of the trading portfolio, a potential gain of 4% can be achieved if the price moves favorably.
Uninverting yield curveHere we can see Japan is slurping up bonds to hold down oil prices. (vs. USD: Red) (vs. SAR Green)
Simultaneously the us05y (orange) is compressing below the us30y (yellow), uninverting the yield curve and firing off our famous recession signals.
But people wonder why the MOVE index is so wildly off the charts..
OPEC’s supply cuts pre-empt economic weaknessThe Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) producers surprised the market with a decision on Sunday 2 April 2023 to lower production limits by more than 1mn barrels per day (bpd) from May through the end of 2023. This decision was announced ahead of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting scheduled on 3 April and was contrary to market expectations that the committee would keep policy unchanged. Over the prior week, OPEC+ ministers were giving public assurances that they would stick to their production targets for the entire year. This cut tells us that OPEC+ is pre-empting weaker demand into the year and was looking to shore up the market.
OPEC+ announcement may have caught speculators by surprise
It is evident Sunday’s decision caught the market by surprise evident from the commitment of trader’s report which showed net speculative positioning in Brent crude oil futures at -44k contracts were 146% below the 5-year average. Sentiment on the crude oil market had been weak prior to the decision.
Demand outlook remains soft amidst weaker economic backdrop
OPEC has been markedly dovish on oil demand for some time relative to other forecasters such as the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This cut helps solve the disparity that existed between OPEC and the EIA. OPEC expects oil demand to grow by around 2mn bpd in 2023. A significant portion of this growth (nearly 710,000bpd) is reliant on Chinese oil demand . Given that such a large amount of demand hinges on a single economy poses a risk to the demand outlook as the pace of China’s recovery post re-opening has not been as robust as previously anticipated. At the same time, tightening credit conditions owing to the recent banking crisis is also likely to weigh on growth forecasts in the rest of the developed world. Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) indicators suggest manufacturing activity has contracted since September 2022.
Supply outlook will be driven by new OPEC+ cuts
Since Russia has been producing less than its notional limit, the reduction on actual production will be less than 1mn bpd. But with Saudi Arabia committing to voluntary reduction of 500,000bpd we would expect the overall decline in OPEC supply to be around 900,000bpd by the beginning of May 2023. Assuming OPEC production holding at the recent 28.9mn bpd for April, our balances would point to an equilibrium in Q2 and a return to a deficit in Q3 and Q4. This deficit is largely a function of OPEC+ cuts as opposed to stronger demand globally. The front end of the Brent crude oil futures curve remains in backwardation with a roll yield of +0.4%
OPEC+ producers can also cut without the fear that they will lose significant market share to non-OPEC members. Previously, OPEC+ would be reluctant to let prices rise too high, as it would incentivise a supply response from US producers. However, US producers today appear more focussed on capital discipline and maximizing shareholder returns. The US also has limited capacity to plug the shortfall created by OPEC+ cuts owing to last year’s unprecedented release from strategic US oil reserves (now at a 40-year low).
Conclusion
In the short term, OPEC production cuts are almost always supportive evident from the recent price reaction Brent crude oil prices have risen (+6.54% ). However, over the medium term, the price response to cuts have been more mixed as they do tend to signal underlying weakness in the supply/demand balance. Either OPEC countries are expecting demand to be significantly weaker or doubt oil production in Russia will decline as sharply as forecasted.
So, with speculative positioning at currently low levels alongside further inventory draws expected later in the year, the risks are titled towards the upside for crude oil prices. However, given the uncertainty in the macro environment, we expect the upside in prices to be capped at about US$90 per barrel.
Bitcoin Short-Term Support & Resistance AnalysisPrices move because of supply and demand . When demand is greater than supply, prices rise. When supply is greater than demand, prices fall. Sometimes, prices will move sideways as both supply and demand are in equilibrium.
When support and resistance lines are broken, there is a high possibility of a significant uptrend in that direction. Be aware of the stop-loss area when trading on margin
ⓡ Resistance Line 28952$
ⓡ Resistance Line 28549$
ⓢ Support Line 28300$
ⓢ Support Line 27617$
ⓢ Support Line 27229$
The above price level represents an important tipping point, not an absolute analysis for buying and selling. You must be careful about your investment decisions.
Thank you for reading my poor analysi
Bitcoin Short-Term Support & Resistance AnalysisPrices move because of supply and demand . When demand is greater than supply, prices rise. When supply is greater than demand, prices fall. Sometimes, prices will move sideways as both supply and demand are in equilibrium.
When support and resistance lines are broken, there is a high possibility of a significant uptrend in that direction. Be aware of the stop-loss area when trading on margin
ⓡ Resistance Line 28570$
ⓡ Resistance Line 28317$
ⓢ Support Line 27682$
ⓢ Support Line 27229$
ⓢ Support Line 26693$
The above price level represents an important tipping point, not an absolute analysis for buying and selling. You must be careful about your investment decisions.
Thank you for reading my poor analysi
Enough Confluence For A Long Position?My mentor, and I have a totally different bias on AU. I heard him out, and watched as he charted both sides. His main confluence was a bearish engulfing candlestick on the monthly chart. Pushing him toward "sells" only in the month of April. While that can be intimidating, on the technical side, along with his other confluences, I see potential continuation of an uptrend ; due to Australia raising interest rates! , I decided to soak in his bias, and counter his bias, with my own. Knowing fundamental analysis is usually the total opposite I decided to share why AU may go up, While the USD is strengthening, the Australian Dollar may go "Long" going into Monday.
WTI-Oil 2nd April Wti-Oil is another pretty simple setup with a continuous bullish movement up to the nearest supply, we may see a breakdown from that zone but of course if we don't see a breakdown we will look towards the new bullish range that would of been created to make another move higher...
from open iam looking for price to drop down giving us a reason for a shift higher after a small breakdown.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!