Demand Zone
XAUUSD Bearish biasHello dear traders,
I think gold will continue forming lower lows on its way to the weekly demand zone of 1590-1570 area.
I have draw paths of possible impulse as break and retest areas.
For bullish reversal, I want to see a clear break of 1660 zone with price action retest.
Dollar is getting stronger and stronger with this solid and aggressive FED policy and the continuous rising yields.
However, the global economy is not at the normal levels, so this USD strength might get exhausted after December.
You can share your ideas on the comments!!!
Good luck!
UsOil H4 TF Projection Hello Traders, here's a chart of the UsOil and right now i'm keeping a bullish bias.
Here are my reasons:
- Daily timeframe Break of structure
- H4 bullish impulse and correction into our demand zone
-Demand zone tallying with the 61.8 fib level
-Double bottom at demand zone/fib zone confluence.
I'm putting all these things together from a technical analysis POV. However, there's the fundamentals too and we see an increase in the price of gas cut across different countries since the Russian/Ukraine happenings. Could this be the fundamental backing that our technical thesis needs?
Anyways, don't take me as your single source of truth, and I hope this technical breakdown helps.
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Housing Market Crash Incoming!Demand always rules supply. Always.
BLUF:
Short-term projection = TBD
Mid-term projection = bullish
Long-term projection = bearish to extremely bearish
Traders,
I have been quick to point out the tremendous amount of disinflationary data in my videos which leads CPI reports in some cases by as much as 6 months (i.e. -rent). Now, let's take a closer look at the NAHB's Housing Market Index data which helps us to better denote market sentiment.
First, observe that we have entered well below the weak demand zone. This is generally an area in which we can notice softening demand. Though the housing market may still remain hot in certain cities, others have noted softening demand.
Once we dive below this "Weakening Demand Zone", it can often represent the beginning of a housing market recession, or, in the case of the 2008 era, a crash! We began this crash with certain city markets plummeting through this weakening demand zone, Detroit comes to mind along with a few others. These were our lead cities to watch at the time. At the point in which weakness in these markets began to be acknowledged and reported, it was already too late. Michael Bury (aka - The Big Short) knew this. The crash had begun.
The markets did not react immediately, as we all know. In fact, the opposite: it would be a full 17 months before the stock markets reached their tops and then crashed hard. In a similar fashion, the Fed was notoriously tardy in recognizing lead disinflationary indicators and reducing rates accordingly. Not until a full year and two months AFTER the housing demand fell below its weakening zone would the Fed jump in and begin to diminish rates. By then it was too late.
Fast forward to 2022. Despite the fact that our U.S. housing demand has fallen far below the weakening demand zone and below the approximate median for a housing crash start, the Fed continues to raise rates at a historic record pace. These rate hikes will come home to roost eventually, but not immediately. This is why I am under the persuasion that we WILL enter a more disastrous recession or worse in 2023. The lag effect of the Fed rate hikes will have a significant consequential impact. Just as in our past housing market crash story the impact will be significantly delayed and by the time they are noticeably felt, it will be far too late. Disinflationary data, low demand, low consumer sentiment, etc., will have hit us harder far in advance and the Fed will have realized they should have pivoted sooner.
Though my longer-term outlook appears rather dismal at the onset, my mid-term outlook may be rather surprising to many. I do believe that just as occurred before the 2007-2008 market crash, the preceding price action will become bullish. It took the market a full 17 months to recognize the significance of our housing data, and the fed wasn't much better. Will it be any better this time around? It might be, but as we can learn from history, the market collective and the fed are often irrational and reactionary. The case for my blowoff top past the previous year's November highs still stands. The market will begin to recognize and digest more and more disinflationary data not least of which is housing market demand. The Fed will begin to be pressured more and more to pivot. And whether due to pressure or reason, I believe they will pause or pivot soon. Then the meltup (aka blowoff top) will begin. And sometime mid to late 2023, it all ends. Secular bull market (since 2009) exited. Secular bear market entered.
Be ready my friends!
And pray that I am wrong!
Stew
ES (SPY) SUPPLY DEMANDSupply and Demand
Supply and Demand is one of the core strategies used in trading. It focusses on the ancient laws of supply and demand and how price moves in a free-flowing market. The foundation of this strategy is that the amount of an instrument that is available and the desire of buyers for it, drive the price. It identifies zones on the chart where demand overwhelms supply (the demand zone), driving the price up or where supply overwhelms demand (the supply zone), driving the price down. Most supply and demand traders wait for the price to enter these zones, where major activities of buying or selling have taken place, before entering a long or short position themselves.
I MOSTLY DAY TRADE BASED ON THESE ZONES. THE TIME FRAME I PREFER IS 2 MIN AND 5MIN TO TRADE THESE ZONES.
chfjpyHello everyone! My CHFJPY point of view.
We are in a strong bullish trend which is still valid pointing up.
In the recent past, the price has formed incremental retests of Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
Our eyes at Balance of Trade and Inflation Data of Japan, which in case they come to public worse than expected, they are going to rocket to the highs of 151 this pair.
Manipulation is going to get high with Long Wicks at the bottom I think so be cautious with SL levels.
Long Wicks whow wickness and rejections - Orderblocks, but at the same time they do show instant momentum, phsychology of masses and investors and they leave liquidity behind which must be tested soon or later.
Good Luck!
Weekly zone ahead. This mapping is to show a very clear structure of support become resistance in daily timeframe.
I marked this zone as "Fresh SBR 6" area probably can become a good zone to re-entry sell.
If you look an opportunity to buy weekly RBS zone is the best area to take a buy risk.
Regards
Alyaqen
AUDCAD - Demand ZoneAUDCAD has reach the other end of the Bearish Parallel Channel, it gives counter-trend traders an opportunity to engage the trade.
On a more conservative approach, counter-trend traders could wait for a double bottom with RSI Divergence on the 1hourly chart.
What is crucial in the setup is that the candlestick shouldn't break and close beyond the blue dotted line.