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Demographics

NAS100 pepperstone [M]update feb-mar 2023 Continuation short, fibs are based off NQs 2200(price) gain back in 2010' Very, very long timeframe fib retrace in play. Supporting narratives? capital crunch from boomers exiting capital + deglobalisation pushes due to conflicts based on demographic declines, deglobalisation pushes due to growing reluctance to freely share Intellectual Property or freely secure transportation or cooperate with international maritime laws and standards. Free capital shortage until millennials reach the production class stage, (large generation to provide capital again)(maybe 10-15 years) Why I chose to short NQ? being the most speculative and averaging higher than reasonable p/es its safe to assume that capital will exit these asset classes before more productive or illiquid assets could. Less ballsy then shorting Bitcoin, but I think i've found a sweetspot Tech stocks are quiet literally based on assumed sustained exponential rates of development, while in general investors ignore the luxuries that have provided the tech industries foundations. I.e cheap capital, unhindered outsourcing/subsidisation, and unhindered free trade (subsidised trade). If you can't secure resources or their transportation If you can't secure cheap capital indefinity If you can't secure cooperation with multiple countries and multiple supply chains Then the system will need to go through a phase of Darwinian re-exploration to re-define efficiency. Its the most logical outcome which will conclude with a period of lower valuations until capital becomes more readily available atleast. Things to watch? Nations will be reindustrialising and renationalising because it will be mandatory. Periods of higher inflation will be evident, maybe akin to something more 'natural' without subsidiation abroad. (higher than the past 20 year average). Higher inflation is normal because a. reindustrialisation is the most inflationary stage of economic development because you are quiet literally rebuilding the road. Redesigning an efficient, self sustaining path will cost in the short term, but in the long term it will create a much more secure environment, that's why i say its darwinian. BUT, yes all we need to do is wait for the millennials to come into the production stages of their lives (40s-50s) and economic booms should follow (so late 50s earlys 60s will be their wealthiest). It will be the same for their offspring, so capital booms will arise when the millennials reach their early 60s, and when their offspring reaches their early 60s and so on. One thing to note is if we continue down the path of smaller and smaller generations, we could very well be living right now (or the past 5 years) in the most capital rich (relatively) era in recorded history. Coming from.. well i believe I'm a zoomer right? (24 this year) its quiet daunting to think about, but this play is literally the only 'invest for the long-term' play that I have. Want to thank Peter Zeihan for his continued works, and for his astute insights on current affairs, and for providing a great outline or general trend on where the world is going in the years to come.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by gravy49
The US & EU terrible demographics: What to expect and solutions.Japan, which today is the oldest country in the world, had a weird looking demographic "pyramid" 30 years ago, with a big bump in the 40s, there were 75% more japanese in their forties than 0-9 years old. What could possibly go wrong? Japan was the new superpower, everyone invested in Japan. And then it all collapsed. As usual it got so bad they actually ended up undervalued, and George Soros invested in the Nikkei before the rally a decade ago, probably using his large Forex knowledge to time the stock market. And yes he also bet on the Yen at that time and it worked very well. So what happened the the Japanese economy? In the late 80s the japanese economy surpassed the Soviet Union! That was mind blowing to everybody. And in 1995 it grew to the size of Germany + France + UK. In 1995, after the stock market - which was in a gigantic bubble - crash, it was 5,500 billion usd big. The stock market crash is not what ended the Japanese economy! At the time the USA were 7,600 big, so the little island was ~75% the size of the US! They were so advanced, people thought they'd conquer the world with giant robots. They were really ahead of everybody. And then the japanese started to retire, and as they aged demanded more and more support from the youth, more healthcare... tradingeconomics.com Germany and the UK have grown their economies, the UK even got ahead of France which I'm sure has nothing to do with anti-business laws. And Italy has already collapsed (since 2008), their brilliant solution was socialism, the downtrend will last a long while. But the big most noticeable ones are the Americans. Now the USA economy is two and a half times bigger than Germany + France + UK! How could a bunch of rednecks that love to fire guns in the air and mentally unstable drug addicts get this big? Their population has grown unlike the west europeans, but not that much. And they're hitting the wall NOW. A major explanation is their economy got way overheated (which had the secondary effect of creating lots of entitled recently born americans), in part because they attract the smartest migrants and all the foreign investments. NO you can't make people work till they are 80. Past 50 like it or not it's all downhill from here. Here is the productivity chart: Migrants: This is something that Japan has not done. They did not take migrants in, and they also did not (net) import goods to "buy time". West Europe and the United States have bet everything on importing migrants; which seems it might be a very profitable strategy: 0 cost to breed and raise workers, Africa for example has the charge of raising them, and Europe gets them entirely free once they reach working age. The US Department of Agriculture reported that the cost to raise a child born in 2015 to 17 years old would be an estimated $233,610. 10 million migrants = 2,330 billion us dollar saved. And if they are qualified and 25 years you save university and the first years of gaining experience costs. The EU had talks of importing 50 million migrants. At a cost of $200,000 per unit, since these are considered exchangeable pawns the word unit is adequate, that would be $10,000 billion saved! The foreign aid Africa has received for the past 70 years is estimated at around $1,400 billion. Muslim countries that provide many cheap workers obviously do not get anywhere near that amount. And I cannot tell how much money the west spends in anti-African propaganda - working on that negative "poor and violent Africa with no hope" image to push young africans to want to migrate to the west, also know as the second welfare objective (to keep them down and dependant rather than force them to build their own economies), the first one being obvious: "Keep dem kids alive and keep breeding, we want our workers!". The problem is... It is not working perfectly... You see, life is not a video game, and people are not interchangeable pawns. I'm not saying it doesn't or can't work I am just saying it is not working PERFECTLY. The west is facing more and more diversity issues just like Africa and Israel. And this everyone agrees on regardless of their politics, those on the left say it is because of systemic racism, and the other side say it's because people are different I guess. Just as long as we can all agree. Racism or not if you look at Yugoslavia they were the same race, culture, economy, history, and they still killed each other. It is a difficult subject to write about since for some people if you do not say everything will work out great you are automatically an enemy. So how do you even talk about it? You can't. Publicly. Just have to play dumb and act surprised. Ye well I might have to pretend to be stupid but my money won't be acting surprised that I can tell you. I am obviously not going to develop the subject. It may or may not be a viable solution, either was there are obstacles. On the other side of the flying pancake on a giant turtle's back China is facing the same issue. The CCP was surprised to learn the awful demographic numbers a few weeks ago, and started a new 3 child policy as well as fighting feminists. How could they possibly create a 1 child policy and never manage it? Seems unreal. But anyway, now they got a disgusting demographic pyramid, and it will take at best 25 years to fix. China is not looking for migrants to support its aging population. So it would appear they are going to follow Japan? NOPE. See, China has something very special: The USA & West Europe owe China A LOT. Africa owes them too. The world owes them trillions. In theory they could just lay back, relax, and let the world work for them. In practice they might have to use their military to get what is rightfully theirs. But the USA, Germany etc have their own issues and can't really pay up... Will be a big big problem. I am not an expert, I invest in the short term in the currency markets, like every decent "specialist" I know and take an interest in about everything that gravitates around but is not exactly my activity, but I don't really get into it, I stay focus in my area. If you want to know more about the subject, some people of whow the job it is - doesn't necessarily mean they are good at it or know more than me, but they may, at least they have researched the subject extensively - write about the subject. There are articles, "official" reports on the subject, as well as books. An economist that was on the United Kingdom Monetary Policy Committee and an economist that was Managing Director at Morgan Stanley wrote a report available on the website of the Bank of International Settlement, and according to them big money does read what they publish: www.bis.org
Education
by MrRenev
4
The end of the west is closeIf I had to make a guess I would say Bitcoin will top and crash in June, and the stock market will have its big Niagara falls in September and this will symbolically mark the beginning of the end. It could happen later, the later it happens the worse it gets. This info is easy to find, no need to list all my sources. The population is getting older, and migrants will stop coming to support retirements Yes the population of Europe is old, and it keeps getting worst. Until last year, when China made its own economic/monetary zone any attempt at challenge to the USD was crushed. Since the fall of the USSR obviously. A journalist that read Hilary mails wrote this: "So do you think it would it be easier for the Obama administration to rally American support behind this 'regime change' by explaining how the French wanted to steal Libya's wealth and maintain French neocolonial influence over Africa - or would Americans respond better to propaganda themes about Gaddafi passing out Viagra to his troops so they could rape more women while his snipers targeted innocent children? Bingo!" And the truth is always "conspiracy theory". Lmao western public opinion is mentally retarded I swear. If I am correct back in 2017 Ghana president told france "gtfo" (politely), "we don't want your help anymore" and he explained that african migrants are like italian migrants of the last century, they'll stop running away as the countries grow, and they are growing. In 2019 the same man called the african diaspora to bring back stolen wealth in front of Macron, called the African-European relation non-natural, and criticized the narrative of "poor desperate people running away for a better life". He reminds that 1/4 of Chinese investments that made it grow into what it became came from chinese migrants, sending money back home. A link to the official page of the event by french "white house": www.elysee.fr Ghana president even said what I've been repeating for long! I love it! "We have to change the narrative about africa, and we can only do it ourselves. We have to get away from the idea that there is a father christmas somewhere that is going to come develop our continent for us." Lmao and tell this to western pro "free stuff". Ghaddafi got killed for less than this but Akufo-Addo is still breathing. The numbers are out there, the western population is aging, the working age population is in a downtrend, US & EU are desperate for working and taxpaying migrants. I'm not sure if this covid lockdown thing made things worse, or if it is creating austerity, people still work and produce but they consume less. Plus migration is a big ponzi scheme, their children are not integrated at all, all unemployed, and often small time criminals. So you got to bring in even MOAR migrants to also pay for the welfare of the previous migrant's children. Debt and spending to GDP is ridiculous As "leftists" have pointed out so much, inequality has been growing in the past ~60 years. France spends 60% of its fake GDP. It's fake because they add to actual production government spending which produces nothing, they just tax themselves it's not real wealth. Growth died at least 10 years ago, and what they pretend is growth now is actually just taxing yourself to spend your money and count it twice. At least the USSR was honest about this... If it was real wealth, and you know, west Europe was so much stronger than other countries, far above them, why would they need the US to defend them against Russia & Turkey? A vastly greater economy should have no issue defending itself, military power follows even if it is ignored. You know what is funny about inequality growing in the past 60 years? It is directly correlated to government transfers (you know, of money, like welfare) :) Of course, masterminds are asking for even MOAR of it! I guess 60 years is not enough time for the info to reach the brain. 60 years ago government transfers in the US represented less than 5% of americans income. In 2020 it has grown steadily (but exponentially) to 30%, ballooned a bit recently. Now where did I see this number before let me think. Of right! Rome. Rome had no grain future market so prices fluctuated a lot, and the senate/officials bought futures from Egypt and when the price went up too much they covered the difference for those that could not afford bread. Obviously as always it kept escalating and by 45 BC, 1 year before Caesar death the system was super abused (they'd argue that they had no choice LOL SURE). 30% of Rome was getting free bread (not just the difference in price), Caesar was aware this was just nuts and he cut this number in 2. But this did not save the republic. Senators that abhorred Caesar and were unable to bipartisan impeach him after he crossed the rubicon, bipartisan stabbed him to death the next year. And then it all degenerated into a massive civil war and 17 years after his death the Roman Empire was born. GG. Michael Burry has also drawn parallels with Germany just before Hitler. Bill Ackman which is famous for being VERY VERY VERY wrong AND stubborn when he is wrong, repeated his short bet like last year, but I think he is too early. I now have access to american options, I will purchase some puts this summer I think. China will collect its debts China has openly panicked about their giant foreign currency bags, they are afraid they go to zero and they got scammed after working for decades. last year they caused the big downtrend of the USD starting in the summer or even earlier but I think China started selling in summer, the downtrend against their currency is still going. They cannot do this with the US (who knows though) but with Europe? Haha good luck grandpas. China will send an armada, put their foot on land and say "Can't pay? No problem, we'll take what we want". They made it abundantly clear they were not going to bend over and let westerners literally scam them out of what was theirs. They worked and exported for several decades, and they won't just take it with a smile and say "oh well tough luck", the debt owed to China will not magically disappear and let's all forget about it and just go about our day. I can guarentee this. How delusional? China will come to Europe, and they will take your monuments, they will take your bridges, they will take your factories, they will take your doctors, they will take your engineers, they will take your gold. This may sound like a bad movie plot, exagerated or whatever, but it has happened. And it WILL happen. Hey recently Elliot management vulture-man went to Argentina and tried taking their warships. But he is just a man. China WILL take Europe warships. China is not a solo billionaire dude. They will be able to leave with what they want. This leads to war but it won't lead to war here, what will pathetic lazy sedentary comfy 60 year old west europeans do? Shut up and submit. A grim conclusion, but each man for himself, if we prepare we can do well, and let them sort this mess. My destination will be England or North Africa. Good luck liberals. The west is going to die. And it will all snowball. Their weakining will lead to more weakening. As they decline they won't be able to defend their interest so it will all fall apart. This is all long term analysing, but what was predictable for decades is now becoming reality. And it might all start accelerating violently this very year. If you thought 2020 was bad I got news for you... The west won't be able to continue to enforce their ponzi currency the us dollar. It has even already began in asia. Huge news that went under the radar in maintream. The west won't be able to continue neo-colonialism and the pillage of Africa. The west won't be able to continue to spread propaganda. The west won't be able to continue to suck in working age migrants to support their massive senior population. The west won't have enough of their own population to be able to support their seniors. The west will get a lost century like Japan got a lost decade. The west non native populations will leave & those that stay rebel. The west will get plundered by China that will take what is rightfully theirs. The west will degenerate into civil war with the end of democracy as result, I don't know if the next government will be fascists but they will be called fascists. No matter the turn of events, no matter what miracles happen, in any case there is 0 possibility to support all these old people, and they will die. It is 100% impossible to give a high standard of living and good medical treatment to so many seniors. It's not socialism versus capitalism here. It's just maths at that point. This is not sarcasm or an expression, they will DIE, in the literal sense. Like what happens when they get covid, but this will be like 1000 covids. They will DIE. DIE. DIE. DIE. Those that made children will have kids to take care of them. Those without kids had "their fun" right? They did not want to waste years of their lives right? Then isn't it normal if they die a few years earlier? Welcome to nature. The UK might survive while France, Germany, Benelux, and Italy sink into this mess, the UK has always survived. No need to mention Portugal and Spain that are already third world countries.
by MrRenev
12
Bye Bye growth, oh hello turbulent timesIf my idea is not displaying correctly here is a screenshot: I hope this is not too thick to read. An edited video would be better. Or maybe I could make a version with small screenshots rather than 1 big block of text? A little additional explanation if you are interested ==> Part 1: France 2022 elections Frenchies are complaining about "toxic ideas that come from the anglo-saxon world". LOL. Someone explain to the french all these "cultural marxist" ideas don't come from the USA/Canada/etc but FROM FRANCE. They merely embraced these ideas, France was born in them, molded by them. They were born here in France buddies, exported to the english speaking world, and they are simply coming back like a boomerang. The far right is for the first time getting 50% intentions of vote at turn 2. In April 2017 they came second in turn 1, and EURUSD gapped 150 points iirc over that weekend. In France the president forms the government, he decides who the unelected first minister will be. It's like the UK where the queen appoints the first minister expect no one has a clue who it will be, or even heard of that guy until he get appointed 😃 These elections are not only important because the far right & the gap but also because in 2022 it is France that will preside the European Union 😃 And the french far right is stupposed to be pro Frexit, but recently they have been flaunting the vertues of Europe (to get votes). So who knows? The major left wing party, LFI, are now the demon, and liberals want to get their voters. LFI is our Trump. I wrote several times this right wing demonization was BS and they'd do it to the left in a heartbeat, and here we are 😉. LFI calls them the party of freedom, actually not even a party but "just an idea" (with elected officials under that banner but w/e). LFI says they are not islamo-gauchistes (a dum dum concept invented by the media to tell their sheep who to frown at, just like the word "racist"). LFI says they're not even leftists but just the people that are pro-freedom. Trying to avoid dum dum demonization? Not leftists lmao, they praise the virtues of a planned economy, are in awe of the soviet union, form alliances with communists, want to tax high earners at 100%, call celebrities & athletes worthless parasites (isn't that true though?), and the worse part: Hate multinationals! Oh no not our monopolistic profits. Oh no! How dare you criticize Gilead and Pfizer! Conspiracy theorist! So here we have the truth. Who are the "eeeevil bad guys" in the UK? The Brexit clan, anti-multinational. Who are the "eeeevil bad guys" in the US? The Trump clan, anti-multinational. Who are the "eeeevil bad guys" in France? The Stalinists, anti-multinational. They tried taking away their profits, and so they declared war on them... After WW2 there was a debate. Was Hitler inevitable, or an anomaly? It was concluded, and is now the scientific consensus (HAHAHAHA!) that fascism & communism were the outcome of short term problems. Don't you dare say they fixed the problems. Economists say Hitler built a monster economy BUT he was mean therefore it does not count (seriously that's what they say). The NSDAP was so successful that they lost their mind... What they did with that success is not the question. What is in focus is the answer to the question "why are liberals so terrified of national-socialist fascism if they have so little support"? Because they win. They get strong. Germany went from a third world country to a superpower. To take down that small country it took the entire Soviet Union, AND the USA, AND North Africa, AND all of Europe resistants. Just damn. It would not cross liberal-bourgeois minds that THEY are the problem. If they do not get replaced by someone slightly radical that will fix the problem, it will keep getting worse. Like the devil said to south park kids "ok you can postpone it but it will be 10 times worse". Getting rid of Trump, getting rid of Marine Le Pen by baiting her voters to vote for you, to "buy time while problems solve themselves". How dense are those people? The fascists even love this because now they DO want it to get worse. They consider Trump & Bolsonaro are traitors that are not the messiah they were hoping for. They are even saying "voting will not remove them". And they may have a point. EU & USA are old states. Old people don't vote for radical change. They vote for the status quo, for "no waves" while they peacefully live their last days. If adults go out in the street to start fighting will the "no waves" old people go fight? They will tremble and home and pray for things to calm down. "Buy time" just such a dumb concept. I don't want to go on and on so finally here: In 44 BC the roman swamp impeached Julius Caesar with knives. Hurray! The populare dictator is gone! Hurray! Yay! Return to normalcy! (This was a slogan by a US candidate just before WW2 😆) And then a civil war erupted and EVERY SINGLE CONSPIRATOR GOT BRUTALLY SLAUGHTERED. Yaaaay 😆 27 BC, 17 years after Caesar heinous murder, the Empire is born. Augustus Caesar's nephew is the Emperor. Ah and the senate greatly lost power (hurray). The swamp won't let people vote for "populism". "Just buy time problems will magically go away". So we might end up with a power vacuum. So who will we get? Robespierre (Louis XVI vacuum), Hitler (Keiser/Caesar vacuum), Lenin/Stalin (Tsar N2 vacuum), a Caligula maybe? Part 2: The population aging More "buying time" (to make things worse later). Printing money to buy time. High IQ strat. Watch GS Lloyd Blankfein interview/discussion of Paul Tudor Jones (June 18 2018): "The hope is from the guys making the monetary policies that the growth catches up and solves the problem HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA" The BOJ gave up this "monetary stimulus" nonsense. They just capitulated after trying so hard. One nice thing is at some points they were so desperate to get their decade back they literally GAVE MONEY TO SPECULATORS. When the USA & EU get desperate, and it might be soon, make sure to open your pockets. Don't get too lost in numbers and statistics or (ewwww) "charting" and nonsense indicators that don't work, looking at fundamentals & bankers mindset sometimes can provide über opportunities. That 2-in-1 idea is packed enough, I'll leave it here, and make something lighter next time. There is a lot to consider this is not a trivial game, there is no magical ichokumookookoo indicator that tells us what to do with 0 effort 0 info on anything, regardless of everything 😂 And also makes us rich quickly in top of lazilly.
by MrRenev
5