Get started

Depression

FED and Shoulders - Massive Bear Setup in Stock Indices Amid depression-level unemployment, the stock market is nearing all-time highs. But how and why? THE FED! The Federal Reserve is funneling money into corporations via buying corporate bonds. Corporations then take this money and buy their own stock, hopefully netting out those who can see the writing on the wall. The average age of a Baby Boomer is 66 - retirement time! How do we retire a generation when the stock market is at 2000-2008 levels or lower? The FED indirectly provides the liquidity with printed dollars. Boomers will not think about putting Trump back in this November if they go into retirement without cash. For corporations to also benefit from all this free money, do they just buy their stocks and hold? Is it not the rational choice to convert their new stock inventory to cash for themselves as a matter of survival? Will the FED be there to keep buying? Do we in fact live in a world without consequences? As a false bull wave hypnotizes the masses, those with cash to buy stocks 'since the market is going up' will provide this liquidity to corporations. Market participants will lose faith in a market where price discovery becomes compromised. Market cycles and pandemics cannot be printed away. When numbers come out at the end of this and subsequent quarters, when real prices rise, when stimulus checks don't make it to consumers, the bottom will inevitably fall out. It will inevitably and indirectly be the FED who bears the losses in the stock market, as opposed to the boomers. Or that's the idea anyway. Significant buying opportunities ahead, as soon as the FED stops fiddling. That, or we see an end of public markets in the United States. When the government enables corporations to buy their own stock, risk free, with magic money, what are the big-picture implications of that?
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by scottybfx
1
"Free stuff" part 1: Just tax the rich!Part 1 of my 2 parts (or more?) article on "free stuff". I will start immediatly by saying that the ultra rich did not become rich by "earning income". They got there by asset appreciation. Jeff Bezos did not "earn" 150 billion in wages. His company valuation went way up. So therefore it is impossible for the government to tax the super rich wealth like this. What would they do? Confiscate their shares and sell them? To what idiot? The way for the government to tax the super rich wealth is to nationalise their companies. This is what is called socialism. Works absolutely great. They can also confiscate land and give it as bribes to their electorate, like Zimbabwe did. It took a few months for Zimbabwe to say "we are starving we beg you to come back". Anyone that expects the government to be competitive (lol), or some bureaucrat to be innovative (double lol) is seriously delusional. Ignorant people can argue all they want: it got tried countless times and always failed in the same way. The debate is settled. The only industries that make sense to nationalise are the natural ressources of a country. Extracting Oil in particular. And most people can agree that this is quite fair. Exploiting the country ressources and of course sharing it with the country is fair. Robbing the hard work of someone isn't. France is the biggest spender in the world. They spend 55.5% of the GDP. GDP is 2400 billion euros in 2019. They got a whooping 87 billion euros from income tax. The upper bracket is 45%. Plus 66-70 billion with taxes on companies. The chart I drew with redistribution. It takes from the rich and raises the bottom 20%. The lower middle class gets scammed because those at the bottom, which are mostly handicapped and very low IQ and so on (they make almost nothing before government spending because they can't work most of the time), get uplifted up at the level of the bottom middle class. What all those numbers do not show: high taxes on companies means all this money goes to the government, not to the workers, and then the government redistribute it. Look. The ENTIRE income tax brought 87 billion. Not just the rich. And the government spends way more. On this page they have a 200 billion project to repay the debt. www.aft.gouv.fr In the entire budget it's "only" 330 billion, but that's not 55% of gdp, I guess all the rest is just regular spending (paying police etc) that is not counted in it? According to the french tax site impotsurlerevenu.org The top 1% pay 25% of income tax, and the next 9% pay 35%. With basically a 50% tax on the top 1%. They get about 21-22 billion euros from the top 1%. Historically raising taxes on the rich has lowered revenue (and raising on every one has increased revolts by a 10000 factor). Won't go into this, don't want to make this too long. Assume the top 1% was taxed at 100% and they're absolute suckers they keep making as much money for others. Woohoo! France got an additional 20 billion. With this they can... do nothing... People at the bottom, which on average have a much lower IQ but it's a coincidence, think the rich have a horn of plenty, they think so little of themselves (maybe they're right about that) that they see the rich as absolute gods that can multiply bread & wine, but so evil that they keep it all for themselves. A fun fact is that when the rich put money into the bank or in stocks, it does create some inflation, it would be wrong to say "money not spent is as if it didn't exist", there will be some inflation (althought very little just look at the BoJ they printed so much cash to create inflation and that cash just slept in safe deposits and created nothing, it only creates inflation if the bank lends it...) Either way, both if the rich keeping their money creates some inflation or nearly none, when the government spends it it creates way more. And we have seen that the rich are not demi-gods that single handidly generate the whole GDP of a country (lol). All this "redistributed" money comes from 80% of the populaition, via various taxes (including value added taxes which clearly reduced purchasing power), and via inflation, via government printing money or monetizing debt which steal wealth from the current generation, and the gov taking debt that steals wealth from the future generation. Taxing the rich won't create heaven on earth. Apart from making voters happy, and maybe feeding those at the bottom 20%, it doesn't do anything. If taxing the rich made every one happy and beautiful and wealthy and equal, wouldn't the Soviet Union have done it? Why does China Gini not decrease after the rich get taxed? Hey and what about the fact that Irish- and African- americans poorest periods were when they were getting a ton of welfare, and best periods economically were when they were getting the least? I looked again at some pictures from the great depression. People in line for free soup. Both whites & blacks. They disliked getting their picture taken. And they hated having to queue for soup. They had dignity back then. Compared to today where the government has grown and grown and people of their own will want "free stuff". Absolutely shameful. Taxing reduces inequality. Yes. It works. It works by uplifting the bottom 20% that cannot survive on their own. Koko the gorilla. Koko the gorilla won't go to college. Before the government "help" did you know that university in the USA was really cheap, and poor kids that went there could take a summer job to pay for it? And you didn't need a university diploma for most jobs? By "helping", the government has destroyed the system. Universities got super expensive. Students get massive debt. Jobs all require diplomas now, for no reason. Spoiled brats shot themselves in the leg. Well done. By "helping", the government has also made house prices go waaaaay up. Absolute bubble. The winners are those that owned a house before. And the population that cheered, now can barely afford a roof over their head, some get evicted. Well done. Why is all this so hard to understand? What's in people head? Koko the gorilla probably shouldn't be allowed to vote! All the Koko the gorillas that think in an emergency we will "just tax the rich" and we will all be fine are going to get a nice surprise and lesson. Lots of big city folks that don't get enough sleep, play a ton of fantasy games, and drink lots of coffee (its an opoid drug btw), completely detached from reality. If no one makes stuff, there is no stuff. "The rich" don't have a magic pot with enough stuff for every one. Inequality went up with industrialization (wageslavery): link.springer.com So... To increase equality, really smart voters want to hurt business and produce job security? Yes, less business and more wageslavery, that's what is required! www.researchgate.net readersupportednews.org Lmao suckers got convinced that they will die without the government and their only hope is the government taxing the horn of plenty rich. I'll end this here or it will be too long. One last chart: www.vox.com Wow! Wealth inequality was lowest in the mercantile capitalism era! During the time of kings not greedy politicians that lie to get votes! WOW! I never saw that coming! Before "secure jobs". Before "tax the rich". What a surprise! Tax was 99% back then right? No? 1%? LIES! It's so obvious to me. But suckers are too dumb to understand this and shoot themselves in the leg. And I might have to move abroad, because they might start a revolution to get more of the bad things that hurt them (lol). So many people are naive. The rich are not demigods. The rich are not santa claus. The government does not have a magic wand to steal wealth from the demigod rich to create an utopia. Chill out and get your lazy bums to work!
by MrRenev
9
Aged like a fine milk"Health authorities": The virus will dramatically spread indoors. We are banning every large indoor events. Also "Health authorities": Ok the population of West Europe and the United States is 80% urban and most people live in tall buildings. To protect the population we are ordering every one to stay tightly at home in a small apartment inside a large building with hundreds of people. How am I typing this without it being a simpsons episode? The result: Paris had more dead than Wuhan. 759 deaths per million inhabitants (versus Marseille at 149 I think). New York City, total lockdown too: 2000 deaths per million inhabitants (that's really high, 0.2% of the whole city). This interesting statement can be found via duckduckgo. Of course, completely impossible to find it via google. This is what I think: Using some common sense, we know (I hope this is true idk what to trust anymore with all the bs science) most of what comes out is liquid, infected people transmit droplets more than aerosol, so masks will stop alot of that and therefore it helps prevent infected people from transmitting the disease. If they don't touch their mask etc of course. Healthy people wearing masks does not make sense, it won't protect them, and ye with all the humidity you're breathing in here it's an absolute breading ground for all sorts of stuff. Absolutely disgusting. How to get sick 101. People that don't know if they have the virus: there is a small chance they might protect others, and a big chance they'll hurt themselves. In either case the risk to reward is poor, the benefit it would make is so small, it makes close to no difference. A solution: Wear a mask when in tight closed spaces to reassure yourself maybe? change.org. Do your part to cose these rebel states! www.change.org Oh so now there is south carolina too? w/e Let's compare it to neighbouring states. I didn't look at when they got infected, at urbanisation, density etc. I'm not going to write and publish a whole paper either. Hopefully someone will. Quickly looking at the numbers is fun, I'll do a few more that are in the area of the rebel states (no point doing california even thought it is close): This is just a first look but looking at Europe states, France cities, USA states, USA cities, it appears that: - Places with stay at home orders have more deaths in % - Places with higher pop density have more deaths in % - Places with the most severe restriction, compared to less severe, have more deaths in % - Democrats compared to Republicans have way more deaths in % People should end up noticing this. They can't be that blind. At some point they'll figure it out. How this unfolds will be quite fun to watch :) The odds of dying in a car crash or of obesity are still astronomically higher and no one cares. California is strongly fighting "fat shaming".
D
by MrRenev
7
Transition to GREATNESS 2/3DJI just like DJT is a good index and canary, showing the situation in general. Lots of small companies will disappear, shops will close, firms go bankrupt, people will go without luxury, but life goes on and only some will grow. Question is, what direction will we go and/or if we gonna be part of it or out of it financially, in the first place! Either way, I got to accept the situation and as always: act accordingly. I'm not into politics, idk if you are a democrat, a conservative or a liberal. More important to stay healthy (and alive) and do something that is one step ahead to a sustainable future. Common sense. So if I had the chance, I would advice to Mr. President to make peace, not war (with China and in general). I would support China, as they will support the US back too 'cause they are just like that. They also are smart and innovative. It's not like the old times anymore, when we said "poor quality because it's Chinese" remember? That's the old times, put it in a history book or something and step forward now. Together. As according to my belief and experience, cooperation feels and works better that hatred, fights and war. Or it's just me?
TVC:DJIEducation
by janfoux
Jerome Powell said he wouldn't save the stock marketIn a 60 minutes interview (I think) the FED chair said the stock market could go down. I don't want to rewatch the whole thing, and I can't find the quotes on the internet because you know that's not something important at all. It's in there. He said "yes, you can lose your money" and more. Not saying his word is to be trusted but he hasn't planned to "save" the stock market. Meanwhile, retail bullishness is at all time high, on the FED site the question "will stocks go up" has a record number of "yes". Suckers will buy "cheap", as they always do, but they do not have enough weight to drive the price. A part of money printed out of thin air ends up in the stock market this is true. During QE 1-4 a correlation of 98% has been found: 98% of the time the FED bought bonds, the stock market went up. And retail that gets checks, "free" money, is going to do the "safe thing" and the "right thing", the "rational thing", what they have been told to do, and invest it in "safe productive companies that always go up". They can't really save their "money" (currency), the option they have is what they have heard over and over "beautiful dividend paying productive business that always go up because it always have value because it always go up". Yes, alot of money will flow into the stock market. Here is the thing: The stock market will only go up, if the US DOLLAR falls faster than the stock market does. In real money term it will fall 100%. In $ terms, sure, it can go up. Who cares about something priced in ponzi currency? The whole bull market driver, for the entire bull market, and by very far, were corporate buybacks (company profits don't get taxed until they sell shares if they use that profit to buy shares). Now almost all companies are underwater and need bailouts. Buybacks have slowed down in 2019 and now I strongly believe those will strongly decline. I expect them (at least) to be at their lowest in 10 years. Foreign countries might want to dump both their US equities, and their US dollars (currency or treasuries) also. China was super mad and have been reducing their usd exposure, but they still own over a trillion. Boy will they be pissed when the USA inflate their debt away. I think that's the end of the usd reserve currency. 2020 was a nice round year for a great depression. Powell got asked in that 60 minutes interview "Will this be called the second great depression in the future" and he froze and looked terrified lololo, then ye of course he said "naaah, there will be a sharp downturn, a violent recession worse than 2008, but we will recover by late 2021" or something like that. During the whole interview he has weird ticks and makes strange faces. I think he is a little worried 😃 This depression will be worse than the 1930s. For foreigner this means we'll get discounts on nice companies (outside of the USA duh). For Americans emmm rip. I want to post a list of countries with average price to earnings, but alot of this info is behind pay walls. I'll just go for something very generic and partly outdated but that's fine don't need perfection, just need to know where to look first. I know the USA and India are so expensive. I think Europe is quite undervalued, and prices are not down falling. I like Africa there is potential to go way up, but this is far more risky I think. I am not going to keep holding euros and dollars that are racing to zero. I need to grow my trading account more but as soon as I have a decent size I need to generate profit (I hate the idea of trading for income but I'll have to) I'm going to want to put some of my money into real assets. Anyone that worked for more than just a few years or maybe I should say anyone that ever worked period should want to save up some of it and keep it in a real asset not a ponzi ran by banks & government that only benefit them. Hey here is the whole Elon Musk quote. Calling social democrats fascists, calling the quarantine stupid, calling out big tech censorship, tearing down the narrative, calling the average dum dum a fool? I'm really liking the new Elon Musk. Real inflation does not just come from a currency supply expanding more than the GDP (amount of goods and services). If the GDP contracts then there is less stuff. If there is less stuff, it becomes more valuable. The US won't starve. They can produce so much food (1 of the reason is how much CO2 we pumped into the atmosphere). In the short term they might have some meat shortage but it's not a huge deal. I really don't think anyone will starve. Powell has clearly said "we just want to print money so small & medium business survive a few months, we are just trying to buy time". So he is not trying to print the country into wealth, like Zimbabwe. But it doesn't matter. This is a ponzi scheme and like every ponzi scheme you need to burn more and more cash to sustain it. You can never stop it without the whole thing collapsing. Plus politicians are never going to want to give back the powers they got, and the public is going to want more "free stuff" "we need a living wage that's all we ask" "we just want the bare minimum to live in human dignity". The US bonds are trash bonds. The country is collapsing from the inside. The US stock market was extremely expensive before the GDP contraction. There is no one to bail them out. Don't look at west europe we got our own problems we ain't going to bailout anyone, plus we became so reliant on the USA... I hope it crashes soon so I can start making money. The USA really holding everything back zzzzz. Stupid modern portfolio theory. This will either be called a great depression, or the greatest depression, or the deep depression. Or maybe they invent a new worse word. "Bipolar psychosis dysphoric disorder". I wish the bureaucrats didn't try to "help". Oh well at least I'll get to say "told you so".
TVC:DJIShort
by MrRenev
13
SH, cleared for take off, runway Covid2020, no delayEquities are about to burst, I am very bullish SH. USA leadership has spectacularly fumbled the ball in responding to covid. Hot spots are developing as Trump is hellbent on reopening the economy. This will set the USA up for a massive 2nd wave this fall, unfortunately. This will ensure business remains crippled, if not completely shuttered till spring 2021. Trump doesn't realize that 'the economy' isn't an abstract thing--it's comprised of individuals whose health under-girds all else. The general health, safety, and well being of the country is our chief capital stock. Queue Abraham Maslow: Meet basic health and safety needs 1st. Insane R:R available Targeting $75-100 to begin
AMEX:SHLong
by scottybfx
1
SPY Long Channel identified Or How I Learned to Stop Shorting and Love the Fed. This channel will be the range the SPY travels within for May, until a breakout on either side. A breakdown would likely mean consolidation, but NOT a bearish signal unless carried by momentum, which seems gone now that the Fed is buying ETFs. There are plenty of support levels to keep the SPY sideways rather than down. On the other hand, a break upwards out of the channel would represent a breakout back to last year levels. I doubt this will happen. At some point the trend must end, and will have to consolidate, whether that means going sideways for a bit or consolidating to the major levels. Personally, I doubt we can revisit the 220 lows unless wave 2 turns out to be a worse disaster than wave 1. Major Levels: 286, 280, 272, 264. Support: 246, 220 Resistance: 295, 313 "But Jorji! Where are your candles! I thought we were supposed to be trading stocks!" I turned them off because I wanted a clearer picture of the trend, try it for yourself. Please feel free to comment/discuss/critique my charts in the comment section. Always happy to collaborate. tl;dr SPY 300 6/19
AMEX:SPYLong
by Jorji
3
Bulls Don't Get Your Hopes UpRetail is plowing into USO, tech, and US stocks. Even with the "Fed Liquidity", the 1st quarter of 2020 was the largest QoQ contraction in credit conditions EVER. The fundamental economic data is putrid. The worst ever. and REMEMBER, corporate profits peaked in late 2018, which is also when the Russell 2000 entered a bear market. The SPX was saved from crashing by a Fed that slashed interest rates in 2019, but with this biggest global shock we have ever seen and with money supply velocity at ZERO, there's nothing that traditional monetary policy can do for the markets. Markets bounced off of hope and optimism given to them by Mnuchin. Don't trust the administration. Things are about to get UGLY UGLY
SP:SPXShort
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
20
SPX | Fear and HopesThere's a large amount of speculation whether or not the United States will enter into a deep depression; And there's some potential for it. Housing Starts for single family homes has decreased to levels seen in the 1980's, meaning there will be more families moving into multy-family homes; or apartments. Housing asking prices are dropping along with demand shown by multi-sector consumers. The inflation rate hasn't moved, which is good for now, though the interest rate isn't looking so good with the possibility of negative rates. I guess you can say the injection of trillions of dollars by the FED has mitigated the fall, but I'm not even sure this is the beginning. My assumption is that SPX will have a lot more selling pressure than displayed this past week. New highs were lost in two days and the close was lower than the previous candles' close. Personally, I'm longing SH until I can see some fundamental upside for this economy. I speculate a prices being near $1600 before we start to recover from this potential Global Recession.
TVC:SPXShort
by jordvnflows
S&P 500 Rebound SituationThis is a more detailed look at the current crash rebound on the S&P 500. The daily chart with a Fib Retrace box shows we've managed to rebound higher than the 50% fib retrace (2788 on the chart) which was my initial call for a reversal point. If we continue higher, the next fib level up is the 62% retrace which is about 2930, around 2% higher from Friday's close. The NASDAQ 100 (not shown) has incredibly broken over the 62% retrace. This is due to very strong tech stocks like NFLX (at new highs), MSFT, INTC, and insanity stocks like TSLA filled with morons. I'm not exactly sure what tech buyers think the future holds... I guess they see a virus treatment soon followed by a V-shaped recovery to new all time highs? Yet all over the global markets we see record breaking horrors... unbelievable unemployment, small businesses closing, decimated oil prices, ugly bank index, dead airlines/leisure/auto markets, and real estate looking terrible. All this and more is screaming an economy with serious problems ahead, not new all time highs. Most likely the tech buyers aren't thinking anything but are just buying what is going up and betting on further Fed stimulus to offset bad news. I think that will end in tears. The fundamental action of markets is to discover fair value by testing price levels--going up and down seeing what values hold and which don't. So my expectation (which is just a guess like anyone else's), is that despite manipulations from the Fed, there can be no faith in a higher market given the current situation of extreme negatives and unknowns without a retest of previous lows. If the market drops and holds previous lows, then maybe bulls have a point. Until then it's just a bear market rally, amplified by the Fed, sucking in fools and their money to be separated. And once the current bullish frenzy turns, the charts will show an ugly lower high on the indexes, the fear will return, and I wouldn't expect March lows to hold. However, to keep myself from getting too carried away with a bearish view, here's a bullish take (at least for the short term). I've also put the S&P500 priced in gold (the yellow line), which I think is a proxy for a market index with the "Fed shenanigans" removed. This value is still approaching the 38% retrace. In 1930, when the DJIA was priced in gold (along with everything else), the initial rebound from the 1929 crash went as high as the 50% retrace over 6 months or so. So from the point of view of the S&P500 priced in gold, one bullish view might be a bounce to the 50% retrace by the yellow line. We'll see how long the market can continue its extreme ramp higher, but when it finally turns, I suspect the market mood will turn uglier than anyone alive has ever seen it.
SP:SPXShort
by MystryBox
10
Stocks Peaked 20 Years Ago. US Perma-Bulls are Chasing a BubbleIn nominal terms, US stocks have gone higher and higher over the last 20 and 30 years. This is priced in US Dollars. Priced in terms of real money, stable money, the US stock markets and the US real economic growth peaked 20 years ago. Over the last 20 years we've printed a crap-ton of money to paper over the losses and make ourselves feel richer, but it's all been an illusion. A money printing fueled bubble. And the most recent cycle peaked in September of 2018, when the Russell first entered into a bear market and when the gold bull left the train station. In terms of what's happening right now: The Russell is sitting at the top end of its range right underneath major resistance. Without big stock buybacks driving the market there won't be enough buying power to send it to new highs. The Fed can print as much money as it wants but it can't stop a massive global shock. Money velocity is at ZERO. Doesn't matter how much money you print, you can't fix a solvency problem with more liquidity. You can only buy yourself short slivers of time. Its only a matter of time before economy gravity is respected and the global markets, including the US equities, get absolutely cratered.
TVC:RUTShort
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1
SPX: The Great Depression and Today's Market 1W (Apr. 27)X FORCE GLOBAL ANALYSIS: The Great Depression that took place in 1929, took 10 years to recover, and is still remembered as one of the most devastating events that hit the stock market. Today, the stock market is recovering from a devastating hit caused by a virus outbreak (COVID-19). Governments and banks have worked together, initiating both monetary and fiscal policies to resuscitate the market. However, doomsday theories arise, comparing the current situation to that of 1929. In this analysis, we explore the possibilities of a Depression in 2020. Analysis - First off, we look at the technicals, comparing the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1929, and the S&P500 in 2020 - Visuals demonstrate a similarity in terms of the general trend - Both charts start off with a parabolic move (not demonstrated above). - Then, a phase of consolidation - marked by the red zone - which represents base 4 of a parabolic move - The first thing to note during this phase is that we see an extended bearish divergence - Prices form higher highs and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forms lower highs, demonstrating a lack of strength in the bullish trend - After reaching the peak, we see the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) form a death cross. This death cross marks the beginning of a temporary bearish trend reversal - Then a bounce near the trend line takes place. During the Great Depression, DJI bounced over 50% before continuing to drop. SPX has currently bounced over 30%. - As it bounces, an ascending bearish wedge pattern is formed - As the ascending wedge pattern reaches resistance between the 0.618 and 0.5 FIbonacci resistance zones, a rejection takes place - Prices drop further, and we see a continuation of a downtrend following the descending trend line, marked by the dotted purple trend line. - According to Ray Dalio, one of the most successful hedge fund managers in history, there are debt supercyles - The last debt supercycle ended in 1929, and usually last 50-100 years - Because this crisis was initiated by a viral outbreak, the real economy has also been significantly damaged, with unemployment rates having skyrocketed Counterarguments - Unlike the government and banks back in 1929, we are more prepared for a crisis today. - The US has initiated Quantitative Easing at an unprecedented rate, and the Fed has cut interest rates like never before in history - As biomedical companies heavily invest in medicines and vaccines, we see hope in eradicating the virus. - Since this crisis was triggered by the virus, mass production of a vaccine could immediately end the crisis (driven by bullish anticipations of the future), and possibly take us to all time highs - The doomsday prediction has been a popular argument for years. Ray Dalio has also been taking about the possibility of a debt supercycle since 2016. Market Sentiment: The fear and greed index for the S&P500 Index still points towards fear, despite the huge bounce we have recently witnessed. What We Believe It's impossible to perfectly predict and time the market. Leveraging for maximal positions in the market is definitely not optimal, and so is terminating all positions to catch the bottom. We believe that the trend is your friend. Identifying short, medium, and long term trends is absolutely essential, and choosing the right stocks, with strong fundamentals that can stand the test of time throughout this crisis, is the recipe for success. Trade Safe.
TVC:SPX
by XForceGlobal
12