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Depression

The markets are sick with their own virus. I have been trying to avoid the doom and gloom media as much as possible. I prefer logical information without the sensationalism. On February 24th I posted a short position on the SPY, I hope you were able to exit at or near that time. On this weekly chart for the SPY we see trend lines for the highs and lows going back to 2008 (white lines). This weeks action broke through two support layers. The first one near $250 was a very crucial support in my opinion. This support level goes back to the financial crisis of 2008 and has provided supported for three selloff phases since 2008. This week broke the $250 support level and then some. The yellow line at $237.36 was the reversal point for the Oct. 2018 selloff. For most of the week, price was bouncing off this support. Today's afternoon selling broke this support. The next confirmed support level that I see is in the $210 range. Economic conditions are going to get worse before they get better. The global economy is screeching to a halt. I recommend learning to short the market with cheap long put options. Long puts automatically give you a max lose situation as you can only lose what the option cost, nothing more. This strategy leaves your cash on the sidelines and still gives you upside. The upside on options can also be very lucrative. If you have sold most/all of your positions, I recommend keeping most of that money on the sidelines. Investing in cheap long puts is a great way to hedge your long positions or to short the market and make money. Most retail brokerage firms don't want you to know how to short the market, they expect you to be the lambs to slaughter when the markets shift. This is a large market shift that large investment firms are most likely raking in the cash as they short the market. The two indicators below are the Cash in/cash out Report (CICO) and the Cashflow. Both of these indicators are free to use on Tradingview. The CICO measures the sum of new money in and out of the market. Cashflow is measuring the change in close price x the volume, it acts like a digital on/off electrical signal. I am not affiliated with any news outlet or investment service. I love programming and I hate the financial wealth gaps in our country. I have lost large sums of money in the market, I wanted to give up because of it. Instead my goal is to create free software and indicators designed for you to take your hard earned money back from the greedy hoarders at the top of the financial food chain. There is a small group of very rich people getting richer during this crisis while millions are literally worried about life and death. Some call this capitalism. However, this selfish mentality confuses me. I hope you stay physically and financial healthy during this time of crisis.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Johnny_Nickles
2
Long Term Spy Prediction - COVID-19-> Economic Depression(maybe)If the rally at the 61.80% fib level does not rally hard enough we will certainly see a farther downturn. There is a coronavirus cure being talked about and trials in Australia start at the end of March. China is already using the HIV and Malaria drugs to combat the respiratory symptoms people have with success. However, it takes a long time for drugs to go through testing so by the time it is complete the damage will already be done. At the beginning of the outbreak and quarantine I believed there to be signs of a 75% pullback on all gains made in 2019, it has already pulled back 100% on the year. The overconfidence in the markets after a 10 year upturn is what caused this in the end. Now though there will be a slow down in consumer buying in the market as well as in spending on consumer goods. Debt is still at an all time high and soon unemployment will jump through the roof regardless of a cure or not. With people unable to pay their bills and unable to find jobs they will be unable to spend money. (I know life changing ideas) I may be too short term on this prediction but a 75% pullback in all markets is entirely possible. If this were to happen in such a short time frame we could see a market crash that rivals 1929. The key to this insane idea is that this is a global pandemic. This is the first time the world has ever quarantined itself and we were not prepared. I see this worst case scenario occurring end of April or mid May. This would also be the last chance for recovery. www.dailymail.co.uk en.wikipedia.org www.ted.com Bill Gates Predicts the Outbreak
AMEX:SPYShort
by skimkings2
3
Tin Foil Hat Time BabyWhats up Traders - If you're waking up today and starting to get worried about the near term United States Economy .... welcome to the party. Oil Prices are in Shambles and we're heading into a recession which will command significantly reduced Oil Demand Gold is falling from the sky (no not literally) The FED has lowered interest rates to zero The FED has recently fired hundreds and hundreds of Billions at the Economy to keep it liquid - and more will be needed Equities have fallen 30% Monetary Policy across the globe is failing (DYOR) What I think We should Reasonably Expect: Unemployment to increase in the ensuing months. Inflation was beginning to show itself naturally. Reduced Rates (post / virus panic) will only exacerbate this. A quick and healthy Economic Recession as (likely) our best outcome. People will begin to default on debt. Extent to be determined. Students will begin to default on student debt at increased rates. Universities that have popped up across the country will begin to bankrupt as students run screaming away from the overpriced education system. Corporations will begin to default on debt as we enter recession If you dont think massive increases in Personal and Corporate Debt (relative to GDP) was a cause for the Roaring 10's .... yes the Roaring 10's .. not to be confused with the Roaring 20's bull market....Do you at least agree that it was a cause for the 1920's? The Preferred Platitude, often for me, ' History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but it often rhymes' - Twain I fear and plan for the worst...which the picture Im painting certainly is... I'm not predicting a depression, or WW3. . . . Im just saying, the ground on which we stand is familiar, it is shaky . . .. and we must proceed with extreme caution. The 1930's gave birth to Extremist / Nationalist Politics. Do you think that may be a condition of our 2020's? Are we already seeing that with Donald Trump, the Death of the 'Establishment' and the rise in popularity of candidates like Bernie Sanders? Do Millennials Trust in a 'Free' Market that has capsized 3 x in 20 years? If they do, how quickly and readily does that happen? -Nixxx Sources: houseofdebt.org www.quora.com seekingalpha.com
DJ:DJI
by WillNixTrading
4
March 2021 Prediction (S&P down 1800-1600)Bars copied from previous recession. Average bear market = 36% drop in 11.7 months Risk/Indicators **Both Debt & Equity Bubble** - interest rates are at historical lows Debt household debt student debt corporate debt public debt Equity People are leveraging to invest in Tesla, with P/E estimate for 2020... 93.51!!! S&P500: 1929 P/E = 21... depression 1973 P/E = 18... recession 2020 P/E = 20.4...? global housing market bubble Trigger - Coronavirus kills boomers - USA has only tested 12000 people total - CDC underfunded - Ppl cant go to work = less income - companies make less money - massive supply shock (chinese manufacturing) = higher prices Result - decreased business earnings & household income - decreased consumer demand, decreased supply altogether = decreased GDP
TVC:SPXShort
by nolanrj44
Stock market at critical level support, expecting a bounceStock market has fallen to a critical support line where we should see some type of bounce from here. However, at the 4 times this has held at support over the last 10 years, there was never a pandemic to trigger an even bigger sell off. I expect a sell off below here will be shocking and violent if it is to occur soon. Perhaps, we can hold on here and bounce back, but this pandemic seems to be getting worse and oil prices have tumbled (as I have predicted $25 oil on twitter back in October 2019). The underlying factors behind this sell off indicate to me that a major crash which is much worse than what we have seen this past 3 weeks will come. I expect this 10 year trend to break sometime over the next few months and we shall officially declare this a recession. The world has many underlying issues and seems that now they will be forced to be addressed. Sure if you are long on the stock market this is the ideal time to get in and this could be an absolute low, but perhaps the bleeding is barely beginning, depends on your perspective. Tread carefully my friends. I expect a relief rally up to 28-3k range, then a violent sell off will occur again.
TVC:SPX
by nostranomist
Spy - 3 levels to amazing entryHello everyone, as we can see our last 2 major financial crysis were 3 and 2 years, and each of them we had a drop of around 50%. This virus started the crysis and even if people say that the virus is not as serious as the media makes it out to be, people's perception of the virus is that the virus is really serious, so this is why the panic could be hard to be stopped so easily. I would say that we have 3 key levels that we could buy or add to our positions, which I have listed on the chart. I am waiting for support 2 or 3, because I believe now is too early for making a higher high anytime soon, but this is just opinion, not a financial advice! Like and follow for more ideas!
AMEX:SPYShort
by donaitelo
9
Ladys and Gentlemen: The great FOMO depression of 2020-2022. Hi, as i´m professional lazy i will not write too much, The corona virus is a catalyst for the great FOMO depression of 2020-2022. As you can see, we have the same pattern like the great depression at the beginning of the 19th. century. Please also watch my Bitcoin Chart Version of "The great FOMO depression of 2020-2022" Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies will solve the liquidity crisis, bring new value into the world via smart contracts and a new decentralized financial system through Ethereum and other great blockchains... The estimated high of BTC will correlate with the estimated low of the Dow Jones. So open up an international broker account and learn to pick the solid companies which will prosper. The world will not end. The Dow Jones low of 2008 is not the end. It is a new start. A once in a lifetime opportunity. I wish you all the best
TVC:DJI
by gsdgeweg
1
A reminder to my bigger plan = The big shorter Hedgehog ;)So I wanted to remind you guys my bigger bearish picture which i was talking about since June when we reached 12k-14k.... Are we entering the final phase? 16/12/19 is very important date, this week/month should show us the direction BTC chose for the next few months: - Either we test the weekly cloud and bounce up and start new trend line with higher highs and higher lows... - Or we fail to bounce and crush below it to sum up my entire conclusion towards the last most important support at 5-5.5k (which is also above the weekly e200) *** Dont forget that * 16/12/17 BTC was at top: 19-20k * and on the 16/12/18 BTC was at bottom: 3.1k * This is why I think that 16/12/19 entire week should show us the next 4-6 months path.. (PS: Bloody Monday anyone xd) - Halving: was already priced in at 14k - Most people/communities/groups paid/free believe this is going to explode and bring the next bull run, but when most think X, usually Y happens, I go against all... and thus I think we will have a nice good falling months... - Halving scarcity real impact happens after real smart money accumulated the fallen "dumb money", smart money will start the next bull run a few months after halving, this is also when the OSTs will start rising up and replace ICOs age, 90% of Crypto out there wont participate in them and will die out slowly and painfully, only rare few will rise together with BTC, so choose well which can benefit from OSTs. * My only concern is the big depression and how will it effect Bitcoin? - Will OSTs rush for the biggest and fastest dot com push before all collapses? - Will OSTs have much less of an impact on Crypto, and institutions will prefer cash out? - Will the big depression will have any impact on BTC at all? * No one can be 100% sure, and those who tell you otherwise are lying to you, but I will recommend this: - If we are going to see this month that we are going down? then accumulate anything you the lower we go the more you accumulate, but don't go all in in now way!!, accumulate every 250$ drop, I'm starting to look and change my bearish bias to bullish when we get to 5-5.5k, this is where I will start accumulating BTC big time, if we go lower then that? i will keep accumulating monthly, even if we get to 1-3k with big crushes due to the big depression i will keep accumulating, because I always believed that BTC has still the potential to get to 35-50k, and then 80-120k, and who knows, if its technology improved (as for now, last 2 years it was disappointment in fundamentals) then we can easily achieve mass adaption within 10 years and get to 1-10m$$$..... - If we are going to see this month that we are going up? then I will start looking to change my bearish bias at 8-12k only if we create a 'fan' of higher and higher trend lines... (and some other confirmations that I'm looking to mark on my list)
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Hedgehog_king
The comm cycle (1970-2020) is over. Enjoy the populist cancer.It just keeps getting worse. I lost all hope. Now people actually believe CO2 is a dangerous poison. I hope they stop breathing soon. That would solve alot of issues. The US and EU are going for extremes in particular the threat to our freedom far left has gained alot of traction. People are getting more ignorant than during the dark middle ages. It really is getting worse and worse at an accelerated rate. Bronze and silver strugglers have gotten VERY resentful of diamond and master players. "Oh my gawd you just ks noob I go afk". People are like children, to understand how their (small) brains work, I recommend playing competitive team video games. Seriously. People are getting more and more resentful. Just like we learned. I recommend re-watching Ray Dalio "How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio" video. From 2013. Boy did that escalate quickly. 3 years later the american people voted for Trump. 6 years later 1/3 of the USA unironically support literal socialism. What will happen in 3 more years? Gas the jews? At that accelerated rate it is not crazy for me to make that call. It's so insane. IQ levels are said to have dropped, I do not know if that is true, but what I know is Testosterone did. The United States is full of soyboys. Cowards. I heard Dan Pena say that he asks his "pupils" what they would do if a man spat on their wives face and apparently most of them answered "I'd ask him if he had a bad day". Lol wft beat the guy to death lmao don't ask him if he had a bad day. In alot of places the wife herself would kill him. Easy times make weak people. The west is really full of cowards I can speak from experience, it's depressing they just shut up and take the abuse. They're very tough on the internet thought. And they have all these bullied losers that never stand up for themselves and end up coming to school with firearms. The United States of America is the most inequal nation in the world that is not an African or South American country (most of which are socialists, nice equality commies, all super poor and also super unequal not sure how people can be that dumb to fall for this scam). Seriously, even arab countries with 0% taxes have a lower GINI coefficient than the US. Want to know a secret? When Germans & Italians arrived in the USA, they had very little political representation and they did great economically. The Irish dominated the political scene and had all sorts of favors. And Irish people were POOR. It's really risible. How about black folks? In the racist period of the - not sure when I'd say 50s to 70s - they had very little political representation and they were making the biggest gains in the country. In that period if I recall correctly more blacks were employed than whites. Then came all the populist demagogues (it got way worse recently) and their affirmative action and their priviledges and their wellfare. And now blacks are back at square poor. Well done. Bush & Obama bail out banks, raise government spending, do wellfare nonsense, the Federal Reserve prints trillions and throw that money to the rich, that make TRILLIONS WITHOUT MOVING A FINGER. No one bats an eye. Rents go up. "OH MY GAWD CAPITALISM IS EVIL WE NEED A FAR LEFT TOTALITARIAN STATE AND 90% TAXES". I'm done with the west anyway. I am out of here the moment things get bad. Hopefully they won't keep us in. Hitler = Use force to move people out. Stalin = Use force to keep people in. I would rather see the far right deport me than far left force me to stay and work some dumb peasant job like I'm the equal of these jealous idiots that laughed at me my entire life - and were wrong - each time I said something intelligent their pea sized brains could not comprehend. Silly USA, why do their politics have to spread to the world? It's always the same people that go for populist demagogues: - Struggling bottom feeders: "Sounds good on paper". They cannot think 1 step ahead. They misunderstand everything. Say something subtle and they'll look at you with big eyes. - Nerdy bookworms: They had good grades all their lives, they worked like good obedient little nerds. They got plenty of diplomas. And they see people that dropped out, had C grades, make way more money than them. They actually think school is useful XD They actually think they deserve more, and they are butthurt about it. The very inventors of democracy, thousands of years ago, since day 1 warned that we should not let any idiot vote. Only qualified voters should decide. Anything is possible with every one, no matter how ignorant and stupid, having the right to vote. Voting for celebrities and "this guy has a nice personality"... How ridiculous... Expect the worse. I think I am done with the west anyway. Going to collapse from the inside like the Roman Empire did. There will be a giant depression and maybe WW3. All because some ignorant brainlets refused to let the stock market crash and wanted to pump it in 2009 & 2016. Bulls are really the biggest morons. "Go up good. Bears bad." There will not be a new Kondratiev cycle. The west will fall into deep ignorance and negative growth, for decades. It's over. Progress has been going parabolic. Time for a crash anyway. Born too late to explore the planet, born too early to explore the galaxy. Born right in time to witness the great collapse, the 750 genders, the masses calling CO2 a danger to life on earth, and jealous heinous ungratefull plebes shoot themselves in the leg. Soon earth will be flat and "the globe" will be a racist social construct, unsalted H20 (the other element essential to life) will be a life threatening chemical to be destroyed, mathematics and astrophysics will be banned, meteorologists will get executed, all books from before 2020 will be burned (Sweden already started this), history will be rewritten, and so on... I just want to build a spaceship and start an utopia on mars. Only the strong and smart are accepted. We will call ourselves Spartans, and all weak or small brain babies will be killed, just like the Spartans of Greece did. And we will have huge egos and fight wars 300 versus 50,000.
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
3