DGAZ
UGAZNatural Gas looks to have hit a double bottom. RSI oversold. I'm looking for a bounce here, maybe to the 200sma. I'll play this move with BOIL.
DGAZ going up!DGAZ has been following a very interesting and predictable trend starting back in August. It followed a channel pattern down from about $8.64 to just under $4.00 in about two months time; hitting major support and resistance lines on the way down. An interesting observation to look at with this channel is that it is following a cyclic pattern as well. The lows are almost in the same position throughout the cycle and the highs fall right in between each low. The channel is then broken and jumps to the previous high and falls back. This retracement could be the start of another channel; and if you look closely, you'll notice it follows the same cyclic pattern the previous channel had and bounced off the same support/resistance lines. We could see the price rise from $3.03 to just under $4.00 (~33%) in the next week. At this point it could either follow the channel (most likely) or it could break the channel and bounce of the next resistance line.
NGAS SHORTNatgas currently looks very bearish on the chart. Yet, the price needs to confirm a break of the current upward trend by breaking the diagonal support with relatively high volume and snappy movement. Based on data epectations we should see NGAS reach its first support 2.88 during next week and if further favourable (the data) 2.645. If you don't currently have an open short NGAS position I would highly reccomend you wait for the break of the support and then enter.
Short NGAS below $2.955 to $2.50, then LongIt appears that NGAS is in the perfect upward reversal pattern, except it hasn't broken the neckline and there is bearish div on the upper hourlies and daily. also, the waves and momentums have not broken into any new uptrends lately and it doesn't look like they will. That tells me that there is a pullback before NGAS goes well into the $3s (and likely further). Notes are on chart, and as I note there, this is a short unless the upward H&S pattern is confirmed with a break of around $2.955.
Natural Gas Pullback then LongAfter a mega run, Natural Gas needs to take a break and will be pulling back before beginning a new run upwards, likely toward the $6 range... it might not go that far, but it's going to have a lot of power behind it once it reverses. The daily time frame has broken the uptrend in COG and CMF, so the uptrend should end. I believe that Natural Gas will be one of the top performers in commodities over the next few years and I think that in a few weeks we will have an opportunity to get a great entry. Check out my last natural gas idea from two months ago. It was when I was first implementing my trading strategy and I really liked the Natural Gas chart, but it threw me a curve and I bailed... it has been frustrating to watch it go up like it has, but I've tried to learn from it.
Closing the overgap likely to create resistance $UGAZ We seeing bullish rotation of the "point of control." Be aware of the overhead "gap" that remains as it will be an opportunity for trapped longs to exit trades with minimal losses.
We will likely see longs who accumulated through Mar/Apr/May take some profits. These actions are likely to create some near term resistance. This may also result in prices dropping to confirm support and build additional market structure around $8 base before attempting higher price discovery.
Good Luck!