DIA
$NDX looks better than $DJI, but it's no slouchPls see profile for more info
We limit data
as it's copy paste
We're cautiously bull $DJI, bit more on $NDX
But there's reasons:
#ECONOMY = TRASH
Tons of good lost jobs
Unemployment low but most BAD jobs & multiple jobs
#DJI RSI negative divergence (slight weakening)
#NDX RSI looks good & many green candles
$DIA $QQQ #QQQ #Stocks
DATA 1902 TO PRESENT 20 MONTH MOVING AVG TURNS DOWN SIGNALTHE CHART POSTED is that of the Long Term back to 1902 pre FED and Post FED . in each point posted the markets when the 20 month moving avg turned down . The markets confirmed True Bear markets and that the corrections in time were at a Minimum declining of 11 more months And saw the market drop back to the 100 month avg in each time . in the SP 500 THAT IS 2975 ! . Always trust ALL the DATA not cherry picking time !! BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
$DJI Inverse Head & Shoulder + Long term data on CrossoversThese are copy paste, pls see our profile
IF RIGHT Shoulder, $DJI Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern, holds = STRENGTH
1/2
#DJI RSI WEAKENING, Negative Divergence
Last 2 days good SELL volume
Some interesting Moving Avg Crossover data on next post
2/2
$DJI Bullish Moving Avg Crossovers TEND to last
There's been few times it didn't:
Late 99-Early 02
Mid 78-Early 80
June-July 60
July-Sept 56
Feb 47
July 47
Whipsawed 1948
Oct 40-Jan41
Sept 39-Nay 40
Aug 32-Nov 32
You get point
#stocks #DJI $DIA $NDX $SPX
$SPY / $SPX Head and Shoulders Pattern (H&S)?Looks to me that the $SPY could be in the process of forming a H&S Pattern on the weekly chart. I’ve drawn in 2 necklines which can also be called Lines of Resistance. For now, I have an alert set at the more aggressive downtrend line. However, it would not really confirm the pattern until it is decisively above the more traditional Neckline.
I did another post regarding $SPY and stated that it would make a good case for the bottom is in if we can get over and stay over 410. (Link below).
My posts are not meant to be trade recommendations. I may or may not take trades I post. If you use any of my ideas, please make them your own to fit with your trading plan(s).
$DJI still looks great - Inverse Head & Shoulder in play!Keep eye on intraday $DJI volume 2c how we're doing
So far NO anomalies showing trouble for this run
Great Inverse Head Shoulder pattern going
Monthly Averages DIDN'T crossover = VERY good
Barring something crazy, $DJIA may have enough for 1 - 2 year move
$UDOW $DIA #stocks
$DJI leading the pack & Bear close to be done🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
Not sure how this was missed!😱
$DJI looks VERY VERY VERY good
Went FULL BULL late Sept/early Oct
Mid Nov went neutral to short term bear
Mid December turned cautious bull
NOW
GOOD signs that September was BOTTOM!
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This is daily & weekly
Inverse head & shoulder pattern = 1 of the best bottom forming patterns
IF right shoulder forms here = HUGE
We've spoken on light blue box area many times
Weekly $DJIA still looks GREAT
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BONUS
$DJI monthly almost gave up BUT HELD
Did trade below the avg's but fought back
NO Bearish moving avg crossover
$DJIA movement can buy more time
Maybe year or 2
RSI looks ok
$DIA $UDOW $SDOW #stocks
S&P trend lines to watch in the new yearAnother big picture view like my idea on the NASDAQ. Right now, it looks like on the monthly that the S&P has been testing the the purple trend line, but no success. From the looks of it, there is still a good size drop to come down to at least the bottom of the blue channel ($350) to test previous low, maybe even the center line of the purple channel around $325. Let's hope that holds, because if the dot com crash or the financial crisis repeat, then we could still fall all the way down to $240 range.
Weekly with 20 and 200 SMA
Daily with 20 and 200 SMA
US10Y 🇺🇸 U.S. 10-Year Interest Rate History (1913 - 2022) One of the biggest "shocks" in the 22' financial markets is the breaking of the long-term (weekly) trend in Interest Rates — specifically the U.S. 10-Year Treasury (US10Y), which has gone through now two long-term trend cycles since it’s history dating back to 1913.
Given the inflation fight that the Federal Reserve is currently waging, while at the same time keeping in mind the structural debt-load that the U.S. 🇺🇸 is current burdened with, this begs the question can rates actually go higher from here?
While we do not know the answer as to the actual trajectory of interest rates into 23’ and beyond — what we do know is that given the structural debt load, we can speculate that at some point rates will likely be forced lower as a proxy of stabilizing inflation and also total debt servicing obligations of the U.S. Government.
Also keep in mind comments by J. Powell and the Federal Reserve as they have been preparing investors for a new macro regime of “higher for longer” .
Should this actually play out and not just be the "hawkish tone" of the Federal Reserve that is helping to push interest rates higher, investors must consider the ramifications that could come IF we have truly entered a new (rising) interest rate regime that includes structurally higher rates as part of the next 40+ year historical cycles.
Here is the same chart of the (US10Y) paired against the backdrop of other macro indicators including Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, as they give us insight as to both the bull and bear thesis for yields moving forward:
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) 📊
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) 📊
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Debt Total Public (GFDEBTN) 📊
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Reserve Central Bank Balance Sheet (USCBBS) 📊
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Liabilities & Capital (WRESBAL) 📊
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. S&P 500 (SPX, SPY) 📊
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, DIA) 📊
What is your take on the forward trajectory of interest rates?
Have we officially broken the 40+ year downtrend on structurally low interest rates, given the potential for entrenched inflationary pressures within the U.S. economy?
Or, will rates be forced lower as structural debt obligations of the U.S. are far too great to support the notion of "higher yields for longer"?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇🏼
2022 Yearly Recap - SPY QQQ DIA IWM DXY US02Y EFFR USIRYY Looking back over the last year (22'), as the saying goes "hindsight is 20-20".
That said, here's the recap on the 22' market cycle against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hiking Cycle (one of the fastest on record) — while at the same time, we (investors) are all asking "What's next for 23'?"
TOP SECTION
DXY - Dollar Index ($104.51) 🔼 ✅ (Green Line)
US02Y - U.S. 2yr Treasury (4.38%) 🔼 ✅ (Black Line)
US10Y - U.S. 10yr Treasury (3.84%) 🔼 ✅ (Blue Line)
EFFR - Effective Federal Funds Rate (4.33%) 🔼 ✅ (Orange Line)
USIRYY - U.S. YoY Inflation Rate, Federal Reserve Target Rate = 2% (7.10%) 🔼 ✅ (Baseline = 2%, Red = Above Target, Green = Below Target)
BOTTOM SECTION
SPY - S&P 500 SPX ES1! (YTD 22', -19.92%) 🔽 🩸
QQQ - Nasdaq NQ (YTD 22', -33.95%) 🔽 🩸
DIA - Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA (YTD 22': -8.77%) 🔽 🩸
IWM - Russell 2000 RUT (YTD 22': -22.57%)🔽 🩸
Prediction(s) these asset classes for 23'? Let me know your macro trade(s) in the comments below! 👇🏼
All Asset Class Chart Template 📊👇🏼
www.tradingview.com
Index Chart Template w/ YTD Return Indicator 📊👇🏼
www.tradingview.com