S&P 500 bouncing off 2009 resistance lineS&P at the top of it trading channel bouncing off of the resistance line. This line so far has provided a clear limit for the S&P, and you can see where it has done this several times before. So far it has always ended in a sizeable correction. If you look at the 2014 range, you can see that it effectively hit this line 5 times before a major correction. That means this could continue along for several months, with possible several opportunities to buy sizeable pullbacks and clearly places to take profit.
1W
1D
4h
DIA
Bullish Next Week on IndexesFor Next Week (Indexes)
- SPX, DJI, and NDX are diverging (I expect to see an upward impulse rally from each of these); we could potentially see a morning down spike, but I "do not" expect that to hold and markets (in my opinion) will reverse late into the morning to the upside.
- We should see the Semiconductor stocks within the SOX start to have some real issues going into next week for potential short term and long term expiration Option Puts.
Remember:
SPX is the major index itself, SPY is an ETF that tracks the SPX, /ES is stock market index futures, but all correlated. (~ 505 stocks in SPX)
NDX is the major index itself, QQQ is an ETF that tracks the NDX, /NQ is stock market index futures, but all correlated. (~ 105 stocks in NDX)
DJI is the major index itself, DIA is an ETF that tracks the DJI, /YM is stock market index futures, but all correlated. (30 stocks in DJI)
Media:
Lots of news in the media around Covid and it's evolutions; however, the market has known about this for weeks. The market was showing signs 1 1/2 weeks ago a trend change was coming -> the Covid evolutions was the excuse the market needed to deleverage (that was going to happen regardless). Markets always look for a reason to justify the moves up and down -- the media and talking heads do the same thing. Just like indicators, these "post events" are all lagging to what the markets were already signaling. Do Not allow external elements dictate what you're seeing in the charts -- too much of media and articles have "personal intentions" always keep that in mind. And every comment illustration on a Press Release or sponsored article have disclaimers of "forward thinking assumptions" and some disclose "payments from the company for their article and/or provide disclosure of their positional holding(s) in the very item their discussing."
Notes:
Running a few calculations tonight on the SPX (S&P 500). Perhaps this is the geek in me considering I spend most of my days in AI robotics programming labs as an analyst and data scientist. Most people are not pointing this out. Not the people bragging their “highly sophisticated” algorithms, trading platforms, talking heads on televisions, etc. blah-blah-blah.
We are at an inflection point within the markets. Let’s take all the human emotional thinking and “what-if scenarios” out of the equation and focus purely on statistical math and probability theory.
Do not get caught up into WHY the markets are “going up” or “going down.” Must get that nature of our consciousness out of the equation. This is also the same reason why many enter into trades and lack the capability to cut the bad ones early.
We call this the visual illusion where the brain develops (or blends) our perception of reality and expectations -- this can be applied to the markets because we want an expected outcome.
Now let’s look at what everyone else is not talking about because the media and industry is using their visual cortexes from what they see on television and processed through hearing.
Starting Feb. 21, 2020: The markets fell for 30 days and 20 hours a total of -1,124.54 points (-10.36%).
Starting Sept. 2, 2020: The markets fell for 21 days and 20 hours a total of -378.66 points (-10.55%).
Starting Oct. 12, 2020: The markets fell for 18 days a total of -315.91 points (-8.90%)
Starting Sept.3, 2021: The markets fell for 30 days and 20 hours a total of -262.51 points (-8.90%)
Starting Nov 21, 2021: The markets fell (thus far) for 11 days and 4 hours a total of -248.71 points (-5.24%)
🔮DIA- didn't make it last round, will it fly now?I thought I'd just re-post this as a reminder, because everything from the last months publication is still valid. BINANCE:DIAUSDT didn't make it last time. The price left the formation in a sideways movement, which at this point has turned into 2months+ of consolidation on key level/200EMA. It is safe to assume that another breakout attempt will come soon. And if it won't- well, then DIA will be of the biggest disappointments this season 🤣🤣 But it's ok, it's part of the game we're playing.
Previous post:
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About DIA:
DIA (Decentralised Information Asset) is an open-source oracle platform that enables market actors to source, supply and share trustable data. DIA aims to be an ecosystem for open financial data in a financial smart contract ecosystem, to bring together data analysts, data providers and data users. In general, DIA provides a reliable and verifiable bridge between off-chain data from various sources and on-chain smart contracts that can be used to build a variety of financial DApps.
DIA is the governance token of the platform. It is currently based on ERC-20 Ethereum protocol.
The project was founded in 2018, while the token supply was made available to the public during the bonding curve sale from Aug. 3 through Aug. 17, 2020, where 10.2 million tokens were sold.
Source: coinmarketcap
*hypothetical* correction vs black swan eventWith a run-of-the-mill correction, I believe the indices will check back to their 200-day moving averages, which for the QQQ, SPY, and DIA are 351.81 (-11.34%), 424.98 (-9.01%), and 344.41 (-5.27%) respectively.
So based on the technicals, the QQQ is the most overstretched, followed by the SPY and then the DIA. The QQQ is susceptible to higher interest rates making certain investors less attracted to the very risky assets. The TVC:US10 has been rising.
Dow Avg Div Yield: 2.23%
SPX Avg Div Yield: 2.00%.
As the 10-yr rises and surpasses 2%, the QQQ will see the worst of it, the SPY the second-worst, and the DIA the least bad.
In the case of a black swan event, god forbid China invades Taiwan, we could see something like this if they checked back to their 200-week moving averages.
QQQ to 239.11 (-39.02%)
SPY to 327.96 (-30.16%)
DIA to 280.97 (-22.71%)
In this instance it would be the same, the most richly-valued tech stocks would feel the brunt of it, the general market (represented by the S&P will take a heavy hit), and the top 30 blue-chip stocks (as decided by Dow Jones) will see something only slightly worse than a 15% correction.
*PURELY HYPOTHETICAL*
Full disclosure, I opened up small positions in SQQQ, SPXS, and SDOW.
🔮 DIA- attempting breakout soon? heavy resistanceIf you've seen my other recent posts you should probably know this setup by heart by now, as this scenario (symmetrical triangle breakout) is visible on many charts right now.
The price is attempting a breakout right now, but is being suppressed by the key level (1.84), dynamic resistance (upper trendline) and 200EMA. Once it manages to break it, we can expect it to move to the next area of resistance 2.20-2.50 (highlighted red)
Entry: average buy in the green zone (current price down to the dynamic support trendline) -- or buy at 200EMA breakout -- or buy later on a local pullback
Long-term targets:
TP1: 2.23
TP2: 2.54
TP3: 2.75
TP4: 3.48
TP5: 4.24
TP6: 5.15(~180%)
TP7: OPEN++
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About DIA:
DIA (Decentralised Information Asset) is an open-source oracle platform that enables market actors to source, supply and share trustable data. DIA aims to be an ecosystem for open financial data in a financial smart contract ecosystem, to bring together data analysts, data providers and data users. In general, DIA provides a reliable and verifiable bridge between off-chain data from various sources and on-chain smart contracts that can be used to build a variety of financial DApps.
DIA is the governance token of the platform. It is currently based on ERC-20 Ethereum protocol.
The project was founded in 2018, while the token supply was made available to the public during the bonding curve sale from Aug. 3 through Aug. 17, 2020, where 10.2 million tokens were sold.
Source: coimarketcap
MKRMKR vs ETH. Few things to note, We broke out of the large multi year falling wedge. The break out tested 100 weekly ema around 2 ETH per MKR. We are at ATL vs ETH now, the BTL is very close and can get tapped. A reverse back to fib retracement lvl 236% & Also the 100 ema weekly would be around 1.86 ETH per MKR
Short Dow Jones - Wolfe WavesWolfe wave pattern.
1. Wait for the price to come to the "sweet zone".
2. Enter on the exit from "sweet zone".
3. Take profit if the price touches the vertical pink line (TP1).
4. Take profit 50% if the price comes to lower line of the channel (TP2). Set the stop to breakeven.
5. Take profit 100% if the price comes to lowest diagonal line (TP3).
Remark:
Pattern will be invalidated if it gets above the "sweet zone" (purple area).
Spy GAP SPY is opening above value Opening range is going to be 438.43- 439.77 if we fade the gap it tells us we didnt have enough supply to hold price up and it was taken up to sell previous day supply to people chasing the gap. If we hold the gap with strength we can have a second day of mark up. We have to get through the open first and see how the closing hour looks.
DIA (dow jones etf) - Support, Resistance, Trend - October 2021Dow Jones Index ETF has been in a daily downtrend since September 2021.
DIA price is currently above trendline resistance.
-Bullish scenario: price breaks and holds above $350 to $354.
-Bearish scenario: price falls below $344 to $338.
Resistance(s): $350, $352, $354, $355, $357, $359.
Support(s): $346, $344, $339, $335, $333, $331.
Q3 2021 earnings season is starting, and will likely be the catalyst for price volatility this month.
DIA (Dow Jones Index ETF) - Support, Resistance, Trend -09/05/21DIA (Dow Jones Index ETF) has been uptrending in 2021, on daily and weekly charts.
However, price is currently consolidating between $352.18 and $355.83.
Bullish scenario:
-DIA price breaks up above resistance to establish a higher-high.
-Resistance levels: $355.83, $358.07, $361.59.
Bearish scenario:
-DIA price pulls back down to test support levels below.
-Support levels: $352.14, $348.46, $346.17.
Note: To maintain a weekly uptrend, DIA price needs to close and hold above $346.17.
Spanish flu covid sentiment checksThere is some Fed Fud going on right now with a busy economic calendar. We studied the Spanish flu and what is happening with covid. During both events there are very similar sentiments. Does this mean we will trade this scenario NO this is purely a study of the two events. With that being said. Here is what we came up with.
Spanish Flu
Throughout the 1920s, the U.S. economy expanded rapidly, and the nation’s total wealth more than doubled between 1920 and 1929, a period dubbed “the Roaring Twenties.”
The stock market, centered at the New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street in New York City, was the scene of reckless speculation, where everyone from millionaire tycoons to cooks and janitors poured their savings into stocks. As a result, the stock market underwent rapid expansion, reaching its peak in August 1929.
By then, production had already declined and unemployment had risen, leaving stock prices much higher than their actual value. Additionally, wages at that time were low, consumer debt was proliferating, the agricultural sector of the economy was struggling due to drought and falling food prices and banks had an excess of large loans that could not be liquidated.
Millions of shares ended up worthless, and those investors who had bought stocks “on margin” (with borrowed money) were wiped out completely.
As consumer confidence vanished in the wake of the stock market crash, the downturn in spending and investment led factories and other businesses to slow down production and begin firing their workers. For those who were lucky enough to remain employed, wages fell and buying power decreased.
Many Americans forced to buy on credit fell into debt, and the number of foreclosures and repossessions climbed steadily.
www.history.com
Covid
Rising stocks and rock-bottom interest rates have delivered a big perk to rich Americans: cheap loans that they can use to fund their lifestyles while minimizing their tax bills.
Banks say their wealthy clients are borrowing more than ever before, often using loans backed by their portfolios of stocks and bonds. Morgan Stanley MS -2.69% wealth-management clients have $68.1 billion worth of securities-based and other nonmortgage loans outstanding, more than double five years earlier. Bank of America Corp. said it has $62.4 billion in securities-based loans, dwarfing its book of home-equity lines of credit.
The loans have special benefits beyond the flexible repayment terms and low interest rates on offer. They allow borrowers who need cash to avoid selling in a hot market. Startup founders can monetize their stakes without losing control of their companies. The very rich often use these loans as part of a “buy, borrow, die” strategy to avoid capital-gains taxes.
Many wealthy people are also borrowing against their portfolios.
“Ordinary people don’t think about debt the way billionaires think about debt,” said Edward McCaffery, a University of Southern California law professor who says he coined the buy-borrow-die phrase. “Once you’re already rich, it’s simple, it’s easy. It’s just buy, borrow, die. These are planks of the law that have been in place for 100 years.”
www.wsj.com
^^^^^^^^^^^ 100 years? something rhyming
Summery
Both events have over margined accounts in the book
Both events have the average person in the market Spanish flu recovery had "cooks and janitors poured their savings into stocks." now with Reddit, Discord, Twitter, and all of these trading groups working together to trade so we have retail in the books. Retail is the exit for smart money.
If this scenario plays out we will have margin call selling, panic selling, and stop losses being triggered.
Where can it go? From the tweets and podcasts that we have gathered from fund managers they all missed the lows of covid most of them got in after the high was cleared at $236 so this is where the margin positions are sitting. Going to the high liquidates all of these positions.
Bull Scenario we hold 354.47 which liquidates 4-5 months worth of position liquidating those positions may give us enough supply to push the highs. We trade level to level not some bar chart copy be objective and trade safe! Use stops! Again this is only a study of the two events. We want to see how this pans out.We have a plan and playbook for a bull and bear cases.
todays examples of preperation
Before
heres the vix with a SD line hitting rejection here is bullish for SPY a break is risk off market
After