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DIA

This is Just Getting Silly NowAfter another run around yesterday on taper talks by Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, global markets are screaming higher, and headed back for their ATH's. As of 8:30AM, the Dow was up 0.34% to 35,051.80, the S&P500 is up 0.18% to 4,408.40, the Russell was up 0.66% to 2,240.10, and the Nasdaq was flat at 15,018.10. China convened a meeting with top banking officials after markets reacted negatively to a broad regulatory crack down. This has Asian markets roaring higher with the Hang Seng leading the way, up a whopping 3.29% to 26,218.50. Moments ago we saw Q2 GDP come in at 6.5% vs the 8.5% expected. Initial claims came in at 400k vs the 375k expected, while Continuing Claims came in at 3.269MM vs the prior print of 3.262MM. At 10:00AM we'll see Pending Home Sales with the consensus estimate at 0.8% for June. Not that market signals or fundamentals mean anything anymore. But, I digress. After Powell's promise of more dollar debasement with over $1.4 Trillion in stimulus flowing in on an annual basis, the metals are being heavily bid today for a change. Gold is up 1.7% to 1,830.50, Silver is up 2.85% to 25.59, and Platinum is up 2.04% to 1,079.70. Of course, as inflation hedges are bid, the dollar (DXY) is puking, and is down -0.40% on the day and sitting at 91.95. FB fell by over -3% in premarket trade after the company reported strong earnings, but admitted their outlook is turning negative with new Apple advertising rules being implemented. It looks like we're seeing yet another strong earnings season, but more often than not, I'm seeing stocks sell off on strong earnings. Potentially, we're seeing large funds seeking to reduce equity exposure by liquidating positions on strong earnings. Due to the "buy every dip," cult-like behaviour in markets, transferring risk on to unsuspecting retail investors has never been easier. According to Peter Oppenheimer at Goldman, "Buying the dip mentality in general does make sense because we do have policy settings which are really going a long way to reducing the tail risk for investors, the combination of extremely loose monetary policy and forward guidance, together with fiscal support, suggests that deflationary risks that dominated the post-financial crisis era are moderating." I guess who needs a real market when you have the Fed stealing the working class' wealth to keep asset prices rising, and zombie corporations lights on. In crypto land, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit a massive wall at the 21EMA (w) around 39,437. But, we're still hovering just above this level, and the bears have until EOW to recapture this resistance level or risk a potentially massive rejection. Lastly, the US senate voted on, and agreed upon a new infrastructure package of $550 Billion. That's not quite $3.5 Trillion, but hey, it's more free money, folks! The farce continues. What can I say, patience is a virtue. I'm working on some new strategies for you guys today. The old Vix trade is still on the board, and I'm holding my UVXY and HUV (for now), but we need some new and exciting ideas to trade asap. I'm looking at some potential longs (while hedging downside with Vix and tight stops), as well as shorts, so let's discuss a few of those in the private Telegram group tomorrow and get the ball rolling. Best of luck out there today, my friends, and see you guys at the opening bell tomorrow to wrap up the week. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
10
Gold Shows Possible HedgingGold has been moving down this year but it looks like that is about to change. With inflation at over 5%, it is surprising gold is lagging behind. I see this as a great opportunity, as well as maybe for institutions already, to start hedging for whats ahead. The analysis: Starting from the weekly chart on the right, it appears gold has finished the correction phase of the Elliot wave (ABC) and is currently on wave 3 of the bullish impulse wave. I see anytime here is a good entry and with a 4-5% stop loss seems fair if my analysis is wrong. Day trade opportunity as well on the 1 hour chart. Gold just broke out of a similar downtrend channel and just finishing an Elliot wave correction. MFI and RSI also confirms upwards momentum with lastly a big green candle on the previous hour of this posting. Please leave a like or a comment if you have any feedback. Would encourage me to post more. Also follow me on twitter, I have several trades opened $GLD and you can follow them there. Good luck out there!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WaisTrades
WARNING SIGNS DJI Bear case for DJI presented with an ABCDE correction unfolding. My take - E WAVE down on deck. Price target provided. Last summer starting in August and running through all of October DJI witnessed an ABC correction which is highlighted on the chart for comparison. However, last time - following the correction the DJI price smashed up through a potential triple top formation clarifying that it was an ABC down and that DJI was done correcting (No ABCDE Correction). Today's price action on DJI stalled out @ ~35K and sold off (note = lower high than May 10th) , thus potentially completing WAVE D up in the chart as shown. Stoch and RSI pointing downward and Woodies CCI appears to be confirming the trend. Further, the recent lapse as highlighted in the Stochastic indicator where it could not get Overbought for several days is flashing a warning that DJI is top heavy/needs to correct. Futures price action tomorrow and the rest of this week will likely be telling, to see if the price can power up like it did last October - however will still need watch for a potential megaphone top on DJI, but if it flies up like last time, bear case will be suspect. Hearing more and more that early Bears will be squeezed - nibbling on the short side only, waiting for confirmation. Not financial advice.
TVC:DJIShort
by Akksujean
1
DIA/USDT - POSS RETEST ENTRY! Some small cap alts have been stealing the show recently. The trick is to find the good ones early. DIA has broken out of an ascending channel with volume, which is a recipe for parabolic price action to the upside. **This is contingent upon BTC cooperating (continuing to trend sideways & not dumping) The Mas are all curving upwards and will cross the 200 if this trend continues. There are plenty of other small cap alts with solid setups right now. Focus on those instead of the large caps for now. happy trades, CD
by cryptodonovan
Bullish- Long PlayAMZN has been consolidating in this channel for quite some time now and is forming what appears to be a very clear bullish ascending triangle off of a long-term uptrend line. As most already know, the DIA posting its worst week since October posting a 3.5% loss on the week with the SPY and NDAQ following posting losses of 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively. By no means is this a short-term play, however, certainly will be watching closely for a breakout at the end of this ascending triangle. The last time AMZN was consolidating in a parallel channel like this one we saw a breakout to new highs, AMZN has prime day coming up as well as earnings on 7/16' which could both serve as a catalyst for a nice run. Broader market conditions permitting- PT1- $3,750 PT2- $4,000 PT3- $4,115
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by jacobosiason7
1
US Futures Tank on Thursday, Vix Spikes 25%US Futures are tanking on Thursday after a rough overnight session saw the S&P fall back toward it's 21EMA around 4,269. As of 9AM the S&P is down -1.3% to 4,294, the Dow is down -1.3% to 34,124, the Nasdaq is down -1.32% to 14,607, and the Russell is down -1.85% to 2,207. The Russell is down around -4.28% on the week, and has lost critical MA supports, potentially leading to further downside toward the 200DMA around 2,053 as early as tomorrow. The Vix is up around 25% and is back at a 20 handle as we approach the open. Considering we're down less than -2% on the majors today, and we're seeing this type of bid for risk protection, things could get nuclear for Vix if we get a decent multi-percentage point correction today/tomorrow. The US10Y yield is puking again as inflation fears subside - we're down just over -2% and sitting at 1.29%. The Dollar (DXY) retreated -0.34% to 92.38 after another test of the wedge yesterday. With stocks puking, we should see a bid for cash today. Bitcoin is down just under -4% and sitting back at a 32k handle. We're approaching the 30k support once again in what is shaping up like a dead cat bounce. The next logical target if 30k goes, is 20k. I know the Bitcoin perma bulls hate this prediction, but like all risk assets, when the tap stops, the party is over. Gold is seeing a nice bid here, though, we're up around 0.78% on the day, and sitting at 1,815.9. Lastly, we saw jobless claims this morning come in at 373k vs the 350k expected, while continuing claims fell to 3.339MM vs the prior print of 3.48MM. Funny how when the pandemic claims end, the jobless claims fall... Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
$DOW - Strong Company at Key SupportFairly simple trade again this time round! DOW had an unwarranted drop from the top of it's channel on seemingly no news, and had a healthy bounce at the bottom. This enough wasn't really enough for a trade, as we kept running into resistance around 63.80. Now that we're over it, I'm comfortable loading a position. I'll be playing 65Cs and 67.5Cs expiring 8/20, though flat out shares are also valid for this play! This is a solid company with strong fundamentals, so even if this play takes longer than expected to pan out, we're still holding a great company which will recover. All that being said, make sure you don't confuse this ticker for DIA! It's fairly easy to get them mixed up, haha. Godspeed traders.
NYSE:DOWLong
by FluxTrades
US Futures Drift Lower Ahead of Final Day of Q2/H1US Futures are drifting lower on Wednesday morning after the MBA Mortgage Applications Index sank -6.9% and the ADP Employment Change came in at 692k vs the 400k expected. This sets us up for a potentially strong payrolls print on Friday, which at this point may lead to a risk off move on the assumption of tighter monetary policy as a response. According to ZeroHedge, the S&P has risen a whopping 14% in the first half of the year, it's best performance going back to 1998. Let's hope quarter end rebalancing flows don't ruin the party for everyone. We'll see Chicago PMI at 9:45AM, Pending Home Sales (for May) at 10:00AM, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30AM. As of 9:00AM, the S&P was down -0.7% to 4,279, the Dow was down -0.9% to 34,138, the Nasdaq was down -0.2% to 14,561, and the Russell was down -0.31% to 2,297. The US10Y yield was slightly lower, down around -0.81% to 1.46%, while the Dollar (DXY) rose marginally by 0.11% to 92.17. Vix rose 4.49% to 16.74, while Gold continued to sink, down -0.31% to 1,758/oz. Bitcoin has resumed it's journey lower after a nice bounce back toward 36k yesterday. We're down -3.8% on the day and trading at 34,543. Stay tuned for our live analysis at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
US Futures Hover Near ATH's as Banks Crush Stress TestsUS Futures are trading at or near their ATH's ahead of Tuesday's cash open with the S&P flat at 4,281, the Dow up 0.27% to 34,258, the Russell up 0.22% to 2,321, and the Nasdaq down -0.16% to 14,490 as of 8:30AM. The US dollar (DXY) is gaining some ground and is up around 0.30% on the day to 92.16, while the US10Y yield traded around 1.50% after recovering from a light dip yesterday. Bitcoin is up around 4% on the day to 35,895, while Gold is down -0.70% to $1,768/oz. USOIL is up 0.70% to 73.28, and is on track to grind higher as inflation takes hold. The Vix slipped back to a 15 handle yesterday and is extending losses this morning - we're down around -0.57% and trading at 15.67. After passing the Fed's stress tests yesterday which showed that banks are firmly above the Fed's caopital minimum's (how could they not be when they're giving the Fed back their capital via the RRP every night), Financials are seeing some notable strength this morning with Morgan Stanley up over 3% in pre-market trade after pledging to double it's dividend. According to Bloomberg, the top six banks have agreed "return" a whopping $142 Billion to shareholders. Looking at the day ahead, we should see the FHFA Shousing Price Index along with the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price index at 9:00AM, followed by consumer confidence at 10:00AM. I suspect the banks will need to liquidate some capital in order to dole out all this cash to shareholders, so keep an eye out for potentially aggressive quarter end rebalancing flows today and tomorrow. Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM! Cheers, Michael.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Hedge_Of_The_World
8
Markets Flat on Monday as we Approach the End of Q2US Futures traded relatively flat on Monday morning, and are sitting near ATH's to start the week. The Dow is down -0.7% to 34,308, the S&P up 0.9% to 4,276, the Nasdaq up 0.32% to 14,384, and the Russell down -0.11% to 2,329.50 as of 9AM. It's insane to me to watch quantitative hedge funds underperforming retail traders, while asset valuations becomes more and more stretched due to mindblowing liquidity from central banks, corporate buy-backs, and persistent and obsessive jawboning of markets by policy makers. It's as though they're allergic to price discovery, or maybe it's just logic? The Dollar (DXY) is holding steady just under a 92 handle, while the US10Y yield continues to drift lower. We're holding on to 1.50% at the moment but we've been stuck in a persistent downtrend since the end of March. Bitcoin tested a 35k handle in the overnight session but has since slipped back to 34,382 with about 30 minutes to the cash open. I feel for the crypto permabulls who will be left holding an empty bag when this ponzi comes crashing down, but anyone who looks at secular cycles will see that inflation, and as a result, rates, are about to skyrocket. When this market eventually reprices, it's going to be vicious. Vix is sitting at 16.12 after testing long term trendline support, and looks poised for a major spike in the near term on a way overdue correction across the asset classes. With valuations going essentially parabolic, money managers are starting to worry about the implications of inflation on an already struggling global economy. The central banks are stealing wealth from the working class, and liberal governments all over the globe are cheering on the fiat debasement, while their loyal voters foot the bill, and beg for more. The feeling of cognitive dissonance has to be infecting policy makers minds by now, as they single handedly destroy capitalism. When price means nothing and supply and demand are controlled by policy makers, it's no longer a market, folks. Let's see how the week shapes up as we approach the final trading days of Q2. Stay tuned for our live analysis starting at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
4