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QQQs overbought conditions forces June SwoonQQQs has been a steadily forming this ascending triangle flag since early February as part of a 3 month corrective wave pattern (4th wave). It wont take long for this pullback to happen (June Swoon). Perhaps as early July we start to see the market bottom here around 325ish then breaking out to complete the cycle. Sometime around early to mid Sept we top out around 400ish then correct hard. I'm still trying to figure out what can cause such a breakdown in the market. It is extremely likely that a CoVid wave hits the US once again due to the delta variant being strongly felt among young adults. I'm assuming the US will not hit herd immunity of 70% before flu season (October) and cases rise accordingly. More deaths in young adults. Some states shut down again? Who knows? The other is inflation data coming in hotter than expected and FOMC meeting in the end of Sept causes more deterioration in the market and Powell is extremely hawkish pushing the fed to raise rates sooner than expected as early as beginning of 2022 instead of end of 2022. Oof! If both news data comes to fruition, I could see the QQQs back in the 250s. The fifth wave is complete and my count is wrong and we go back to 2015 highs. I hope only one bad data happens and we go in this long bull run in the markets for the super cycle.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by CTRLZEEE
2
US Futures Drift Near Overnight Lows, Jobless Claims SpikeUS Futures are hovering near yesterday's lows after a shaky start to the overnight session saw us reverse the Powell driven buying spree that started around 2:45PM when he said to take the dot plot with a "pinch of salt." Powell is now essentially saying that the Fed doesn't know what it's doing, so don't really listen to what the members think. I mean, this guy is a complete idiot imo. After rallying to erase essentially all of the afternoon losses, futures tanked shortly after the close, and we tested new session lows, to then drift marginally higher. As of Thursday morning at 9AM the S&P was trading down -0.31% to 4,200, the Dow was down -0.23% to 33,828, with the Nasdaq down -0.38% to 13,918, and the Russell down -0.32% to 2,302.60. The Vix rose 2.5% to 18.61, while the dollar continued it's spectacular bounce to 91.81, up 0.46%. The US10Y yield also rallied hard after the FOMC minutes - but we're cooling lightly here before the open and sitting at 1.557%. Gold is crashing and is down over 4% on the day. We're sitting at 1,785 and losing the 100DMA at 1,797. We're back in the descending channel, and looking at further downside as we approach the end of the trading week. Oil continues to rise, and is sitting just below a 72 handle, up 0.39% on the day. Lastly, we saw jobless claims come in higher than expected moments ago. Initial claims rose to 412k vs the 350k expected, while continuing claims remained flat at 3.518MM (3.517 prior). Needless to say, investors are finally considering the fact that the cost of servicing debt is going to rise soon putting pressure on (debt fueled) asset prices, and in short order (by June 26th), roughly 1.5 million Americans will lose unemployment benefits. In September, apparently another 9 Million or so will lose benefits. Stagflation here we come... Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
TVC:DXYLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12
Vix Weekly RSI Lowest in Almost 8 Years?The Vix recently caught a bounce off one of the lowest weekly RSI prints since 2013. We've seen support each time the Vix hit a weekly RSI of 41, and so Vix may finally be on the verge of a notable spike soon, which leads me to believe that the Fed may surprise markets today by being more hawkish than expected, or opex (quad-witch) on Friday may be a disaster for risk. Either way, I think the worse could be over for Vix, at least for a brief period of time. Let's see what happens this afternoon when we get the Fed minutes...
TVC:VIX
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
QQQ ATHsGoing off my last $NQ1! idea published...near picture perfect and just a few hairs off fresh all time highs... Obvious resistance again, but the grind up and growth leading for weeks is tilting towards a bullish breakout in a big way IMO. of course it's gonna be choppy, of course there's gonna be huge size on the bid and ask. No telling what could happen when price reaches that point...usually probes through to check it out. I'd expect something similar tomorrow or overnight even. Good luck, and stay flexible.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Todoubled23
Futures Rise as Retail Traders Shrug Off Hottest CPI Since 1992Happy Friday folks! Let's get right into it today. US Futures traded relatively flat in the overnight session with the Dow down -0.12% to 34,420, the S&P down -0.11% to 4,233, the Russell up 0.29% to 2,315, and the Nasdaq up 0.07% to 13,969 as of 8:30AM. Yesterday's PA came as a bit of a surprise to trading desks across the Capital Markets, as the typical reaction to red hot inflation is a more hawkish shift in policy and an increase in the cost of servicing debt, pulling a significant amount of flows away from growth heavy indexes such as the Russell and Nasdaq, leading to more defensive positioning at the very least. However, sans the light selling on the Russell, what we saw was next to no fear at all, or demand for risk protection for that matter. Markets and particularly market signals are completely broken right now it would appear, as Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller rightly pointed out shortly after the red hot data. The best performing trading strategy over the past year has been buy and hold. So in other words, doing absolutely nothing but remaining as risk on as possible, this entire time, which many, if not most, retail traders have done, has outperformed hedge funds by 10 to 1. In my honest opinion, this is no longer a "market," far less an efficient or free market. The US10Y yield continued to fall as bond markets bought the Fed narrative of transitory inflation, and almost completely ignored Thursday's highest CPI print since 1992. The Dollar (DXY) rose 0.32% to 90.35 showing potential signs of derisking in growth, while Vix slipped back to a 15 handle, and is sitting at the lowest level since before the March 2020 lockdown crashed markets 35%. Gold is sitting just below 1,900 around 1,890 and is down -0.30% on the day, while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose 1.38% to 37,215. Finally, USOIL rose 0.11% to 70.16. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Hedge_Of_The_World
9
Almost there....After lagging behind the other indices is it the QQQ's turn to break out to a new high? QQQ has obviously been leading (not saying much) as of late. Growth seems to be ready to explode again. So much short interest up here without a doubt. We have grinded the way up and that's not a bad thing necessarily. Looking for a bit of a move up overnight/premarket then fade the gap after open. Will be heavily shorted almost surely again in that situation as the gap from weeks ago is still to be closed. Perfect storm as we hold in the general range of ATH's. Can good news catalysts rock the coke machine enough to pick a firm direction with some sustainability? The charts will tell us soon.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Todoubled23
Which camp are you in? SPY based off of Elliot Wave TheoryBased on the Elliot Wave theory, there are three things that I think ya'll should check out. We are close to a correction but one of them is a two year bear market and the other is a 2-3 month correction before the next impulse wave to the upside. If you guys don't know anything about Elliot Wave theory, I highly recommend reading up on it. There are rules that must be followed but its pretty simple once you study it for a couple of days. Anyways if we sit below 320 on the SPY, we are in for a melt down that basically back tracks to March 2020 lows. If we bounce from 360, we're in for a big ride up to all new highs (SPY 500). But...that maybe the last leg of a real bull market that started in the 1990s (the beginning of digital age). The question is what camp am I in? I think the Fed wants inflation. And I think there is inflation. I literally paid close to $80 for 15lbs of Brisket at Costco when it used to be $35 a year ago. Chicken just got really expensive too. Cost of food is up. I think the Fed wants to raise interest rates. The Fed knows it doesn't have ammunition to soften the blow when a true problem erupts e.g. 2008 crash. With Fed Funds rate at 0, there is no room for mistakes. So my answer is we are in for a big pull back down to 320 but less steep like 2020 and the start of the big correction ABC like 2003 - 2008. Which camp are you in? What are your thoughts? Please like and share.
AMEX:SPY
by CTRLZEEE
1
Futures Flat, Investors Brace for Thursday's Inflation DataUS Futures traded relatively flat on Monday morning with the S&P up 0.01% to 4,228.75 (sitting just below the ATH), the Dow up 0.14% to 34,790, the Nasdaq down 0.10% to 13,753, and the Russell down 0.01% to 2,286.40 as of 8AM. The US10Y yield fell back to 1.58%, while the dollar (DXY) traded flat at 90.12. We saw another mini flash crash in Vix this morning (similar to June 1st) around 7AM, which saw Vix test a low of 15.78 before quickly bouncing back to 16.66. Over the weekend we saw the G7 come to an agreement on a 15% minimum corporate tax rate, which is expected to be rolled out to the G20 soon. Enforcement of the accord is another story, of course. Yesterday Yellen said she isn't concerned about higher inflation or higher rates in the near future, adding that they're "good for the Fed and US society." Clearly she doesn't understand how the market works and what will happen to asset valuations when the cost of debt rises; don't forget - Yellen was the one who said just a few years ago in 2017 that she doesn't think we'll see another financial crisis in our lifetimes. Needless to say, I don't place too much emphasis on anything she, or Powell for that matter, says. Later on today around 3PM we'll get the consumer credit report for April, which is expected to fall from the prior print of $25.8B to $22B. But, the main event this week is going to be the US consumer price report on Thursday, which based on the recent spike in used car prices, could reveal a shockingly high print, causing panic over the possibility of hyperinflation/stagflation as early as this year. The Fed, of course, will come out and say it's transitory as rapidly and as many times as possible following the print. That we can be certain of, as they're nothing more than a PR firm for Wall Street imo. Lastly, Bitcoin bulls are cheering on El Salvador President, Nayib Bukele, for advocating for Bitcoin this weekend in Miami at the largest Bitcoin conference to date, as a legal form of tender for the country. However, according to Goldman, 35% of Hedge Funds (25 CIO's from various hedge funds) see Bitcoin as their "least favorite" investment, while Growth was the "most favorite." Bank of America's global fund manager survey revealed that "long Bitcoin" was the most crowded trade on Wall Street (no surprise there). We're currently sitting at $36,651 and up around 2.35% on the day. I see us potentially retesting the 200DMA in the near term, before a continuation of the downtrend toward $20k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
Nikkei's multiyear rising expanding wedge and probable outcomeI have the chart depiction of Nikkei's multiyear rising expanding wedge and outcome laid out here. In my understanding, the Dow, SnP 500 and all the rest of indexes worldwide will mirror this to the final lows in March 2022 and probably beyond. The standard price targets in that rising expanding wedge pattern along with possible cycle date timings are shown no matter of any timescales in the chart. That's about 56% decline from around the high of 30,700+. German DAX 30 shows expanding megaphone in the same range of years which is targeting all the way to 3,600 in coming years (end of 2023) if the megaphone pattern fully plays out in this large context. I know that it certainly does in smaller scales for the declines up to 30%. That will be one heck of a decline to witness in anybody's lifetime.
TVC:NI225Short
by tfinavia