Bullish H&S in 3M Corp. Shares of MMM look to be forming an inverse H&S pattern that looks it could be a favorable setup for the bull camp. It's deeply oversold with an R.S.I. reading of 22.9 and is holding the neckline support, so I think it's headed higher.
Shares are in the buy zone right now at $185, which is the neck of the pattern. Look for minor resistance around the gap down at $197-200. I doubt this will pose much of a challenge for the shares, although it may provide another buying point.
Major resistance comes in at the target of the pattern at $218-224, which I believe will be reached prior to the next earnings release on July 25th.
Set your stop-loss beneath the head, around $177-179. That gives you a nice risk-reward ratio... -$8 (-4.3%) to the downside and +$39 (+21.8%). That's a 5.1:1 bullish ratio. I'm a buyer for sure!
DIA
S&P 500 Next Week Expected Move ($37.50) & Gravity PointsHappy all time highs. No call.
Google + Apple reporting next week. Microsoft reached 1 trillion market cap.
Majority of companies reporting earnings beats and revenue misses. How is that possible? Buybacks.
Keep an eye on Semiconductors, smallcaps, oil, and China.
Natural gas looking interesting.
Maybe check on the VIX positioning. Record number. When commercial hedgers start to decrease longs, it's game time.
finviz.com
$IWM $RUT $TNA $TZA Small Caps About to Lead The Markets!While the large-cap stock indexes like the $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA have been running higher, they are now at resistance and should stall out or at least slowdown. Small-cap stocks have been building a base for a mega rally that could make the large-cap run look like chump change!
See more analysis on the small cap sector: www.thetechnicaltraders.com
DIA IndecisionIndecision in the Market right now.
Bear Case:
*Multiple failed attempt to break resistance
*Head and Shoulder formation
*Broken wedge up
*Lack luster volume
*Bearish divergence on RSI
***Motivation for break lower : recession fears
Bull Case:
* 50 MA broke back above 200 MA
* Price holding above those two MAs
* Symmetrical Triangle engulfing the H&S (Larger pattern usually plays out)
* Possibly a bull flag forming (look at it in the weekly)
***Motivation for break higher : Trade deal
****Personally, I think we break lower... Let's talk about it!
SPY Next Week Expected Moves ($52) + Gravity PointsLast week's call had me nervous for a second there. A very chaotic week, but I had several opportunities to put on a couple positions. Hats off to anyone who waited for that upper expected move. (two opportunities)
Large expansion for the expected move from last week to this week = expect volatility to pick up.
Couple quick notes:
- 10 yr / 3 mo yield inverted. You now are paid more to buy a 3 month bond than a 10 year bond. Fundamentally this makes no sense because you should be compensated for the additional risk of loaning your money for longer periods of time. Ill share some of my excel doc data of different yield curve pair inversions for the 10/3because it's so important:
---> 10 yr / 3 mo yield inversion time prior to next Recession: Average = 13 Months
---> S&P 500 Peak to start of recession percentage gain/loss: Average = -13.3% Median = -13.5% (Most losses happen prior to official recession)
---> S&P 500 percentage gain/loss during Recession: Average = -1.3% Median = 6.7%
---> Number of Months from Peak to Recession: Average = 8.7 months Median = 8.5 months
---> Number of Months in Recession: Average = 13.5 months Median = 10.7 months
---> Recession Start to S&P 500 Trough: Average = 8 months Median = 5.3 months
- Powell signaled to the market that the economy is weak
- Germany slowdown bad Friday morning manufacturing report
- China slowdown
- Brexit delated but nowhere near resolved
Best of luck next week gentlemen
- RH
P.S. Wish me luck on my Series 7 exam on Friday next week!
Small Cap Stocks with Bearish daily and weekly chartsThe Russell 2000 ETF continues to deliver critical technical and longer-term price patterns for skilled technicians. Combining the IWM chart with the Transportation Index, Oil, Gold, and others provide a very clear picture of what to expect in the immediate future.
Recently, we posted a research article about the Head-n-Shoulders pattern setting up in the $INDU. Again, the IWM chart is also showing a very clear Head-n-Shoulders pattern with critical resistance near $159.50 and support near $144.25. Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe this right Shoulder will prompt a downside market move towards support near $144.25 before a downward sloping wedge pattern sets up. This first downward price leg will setup and congesting wedge formation that will, eventually, break to the upside and drive market prices higher.
We authored a research article about this pattern setup on February 17, 2019. You can read it here.
Skilled traders watch all the charts to assist them in identifying characteristics that can assist them in understanding price moves, key support/resistance levels, and price patterns. This IWM chart should be on everyone’s radar at the moment. Where the IWM finds support, so will the other US stock market indexes.
The IWM setup indicates we may only see a 5~7% downside price swing before support is found. We’ll have to watch how this plays out over the next few weeks/months to determine if the $144.25 level is true support or if the lower $137.00 level will become support. Either way, the downside price swing appears poised to unfold over the next few days/weeks – so be prepared.
Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades in 2019. We have already positioned our clients for this move and we believe we can help you stay ahead of these markets.
Expected Moves ($33.50) + Gravity PointsPop and Drop likely. Target $2842.75 Gravity Point.
Next week is a positioning week. A bigger move is likely setting up in the following week. Take off / Put on Risk above and on that Gravity Point. Price must be firmly and immediately rejected, if price hops above $2842.75 and sits on top of it for a couple days the probability of profiting on a short trade diminish.
Good luck next week gentlemen
-RH