Get started

DIA

Apple is Falling from the TreeShares of AAPL are trouble, so long as this zone of support between $144.79-150.24. If not, a possible relief rally may come in to play because it's getting oversold on a weekly basis (RSI <30). Even so, any strength should be sold in to, as I see this thing falling hard. Minor breakout resistance (dotted white line), but the extensions from the major move has downside targets at 127.2% and 161.8%, $127.60 and $98.80, respectively. Finally, $89.78 is the line in the sand... if we get there, you'll get a chart from me far in advance. It may be worth stepping in to a small position, but go easy because you're betting this the bottom. Have an exit strategy, and if possible, play via options to define risk. I'm buying some near dated called expecting a bounce to $178.78, give or take. From there, I'll be looking to go short on a longer-term. Happy Trading!
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by EchoAlphaBravo
SPX Is Strong SellI can see the hate mail now, but let's look at empirical evidence rather than emotional hypotheses. I marked several indicators that confirm this reiteration of a decline that cold probe the 1510 level, the last untested breakout from the post-crisis era. Don't misconstrue me, I'm not not say thta's about to happen overnight, but if we are indeed entering a bear market, which it appears we are, that's the level we must hold and there should be massive support there. Before we get there, look for 2280 on SPX.
SP:SPXShort
by EchoAlphaBravo
1
Next Week Trade Plan: $82 Expected Move + Gravity Points + ExtraFor what it's worth, I don't have any Gravity Points identified under the "Gravity Point Very Hard" Chart Dump this week. See what I see. Last Week's Post Other Relevant Charts: (One Last Rally) (Interesting Development) (Kings Crown) (Extremely Useful) (Combo Equal-Weight Indice Chart) (Extremely Useful) (Should've made it public) (Semi-Useful) (Just for fun) Sector & Indice Trendline Watch: I use a fan of different trendlines from different anchor points (candle wick, candle body, Day prior, Day after, ect.) and connected them in a similar way to 2015/2016 Lows to capture a more complete picture of the trendline. That way I'm not second guessing if the trend is broken or not because I have all of the possibly variations already displayed. See Below: Indice: (Broke?) (Very Weak) (Hanging on) Sector: (Strong) (Very Weak) (Struggling) (Broke) (Still Well Above)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RHTrading
4
Next Week Trade Plan: $70 Expected Move + Gravity PointsVolatility Expansion from last week's $62 Expected Move. I actually expect us to burst to the upside and then Fade for the rest of the week. You can see the 'Event Risk' being priced in because of the G20, but on Monday we have a $47 Expected Move in one day alone. I marked this in Yellow on the screen. Interestingly enough, Monday's $47 move brings us up into the next Gravity Point and where we've failed twice before at 2811. How much would I trust the Expected Move? Less than usual. The market place is trading inefficiently. We just had two weeks in a row where we exploded outside of the expected move, both to the downside and last week to the upside. How to look at the Expected Move: It's a probability Distribution. Imagine the bell curve. 68.26% of the time price will remain inside of the Expected Move. So pretty much 7 out of 10 weeks. This gives you an edge of 20%, where 50% represents completely random (no edge). 95.4% of the time Price will remain within 2 Standard Deviations of the Expected Move. 99.74% of the time Price will remain within 3 Standard Deviations of the Expected Move. Last week we had a 2.5 SD move to the upside in relation to what the Option Market had priced in. --> This means the marketplace is priced inefficiently. The week prior we also broke outside of the Expected Move by about 2.5 Standard Deviations but to the downside. These are extremely rare events and does not diminish the effectiveness of this strategy. I like to couple the Expected Move with Gravity Points, which is my suggestion for this week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RHTrading
1
Up in Smoke? Nope, just getting lit!Shares of MO have been under tremendous pressure since the FDA mentioned banning methol cigs/e-flavors, but don't let that fool you. This cash cow has plenty of firepower to withstand this minor hiccup and as shown on the chart, has fallen exactly to trend line support going back to 1969 (almost 50 years). This is a screaming buy! I'm already long shares, selling covered calls against to boost income. I'm adding aggressively on this decline. I'd do the same if I were you!
NYSE:MOLong
by EchoAlphaBravo
S&P 500 Trading Plan: Gravity Points + Expected Move ($62)Our first expansion of Implied Volatility in 3 weeks. Last week was $47 Expected Move, this week's Expected Move is $62. I'm not sure what this next week will bring us, my bias short term is to the upside. There's a confluence of support right below us at $2,600. But at the same time I don't like the long trade unless we see some extreme capitulation-esk move early next week with substantial volume. Last week we saw a 3 sigma move that actually closed OUTSIDE of the Expected Move which means that the options market isn't adequately pricing risk in the marketplace. 9 times out of 10 it closes inside of the Expected Move. We saw this in the 3 prior weeks of trade. Watching JNK closely, Need to see it turn around. Watching the Financials closely at this level. Really need to see them above $26.50. Watching Boeing closely, Boeing needs to stabilize if the Dow is going to rally. (UNH (Up 20% YTD) is the 2nd largest constituent of the Dow, and I will be watching this closely as well). Watching Rotation of sectors, specifically Defensive names for downside continuation; KO, JNJ, PG, MRK, PEP, VZ, MCD, Healthcare/Retail/Discretionary/Real Estate. I haven't been able to form any theories on where money will rotate into yet. Last Week's Trading Plan: Goodluck out there Gentlemen, -RH
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RHTrading
SPY: Bullish Case / Indicator StoriesWe have a strong bounce here pre market. This honestly looks pretty strong to me. This is my 15 minute time frame. Hey, I'm not a permabear I promise. This is the earliest timeframe that I could find a bull case for, and thought it was convincing. On my Stochastics on the bottom of the chart; My longer term Blue Stochastic has risen above the lower black threshold line (40) for the first time in a long time. This comes after my Blue Stochastic has been diverging for several days now, and the Shorter Term Stochastic also shows a divergence. On the RSI on the Top of the Indicators; Momentum has clearly shown strong buying pressure at this time resulting in a powerful move higher in price. Clear divergence on my Shorter Term RSI Black Line Longer Term RSI Red Line has moved decisively, with conviction, over the center (50) line. This comes after an extended period of time spent below the center (50) line. Strong breaks above the center (50) line often stay above the center line The shorter term RSI Black Line has risen above my Upper Black Line Threshold (62) so which allows me to rule out false bounces mostly, and breakdowns.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RHTrading