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$ARKK Continues Wedging and ConsolidatingOn March 30, 2023, I posted (link below) my thoughts on AMEX:ARKK being a barometer for risk-on / risk-off in this market. I still hold the same view. I’ve updated this chart and it has simply continued to consolidate into a narrower range. I expect a resolution to either the upside or a breakdown. All TBD. The constructive things I see are the consolidation in a small price range AND a big decline in volume indicating to me that there is considerable indecision on other traders’ parts. While I tend to lean bullish on this name, it could breakdown as well. I have alerts at both upper and lower trendlines and may trade it accordingly. Thanks for looking. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
AMEX:ARKK
by jaxdog
Wild S&P Nonsensery Who could have guessed markets would rally in an ocean of bad news: Worse than expected CPI Worse than expected PCE Worse than expected Chicago PMI Joblessness Rising Missed Earnings Q2 GDP Contraction in Recession Collapsing Home and Auto Sales Who knew you could miss earnings, lose millions in revenue and your stock price rallies like Microsoft, Boeing, and Google. BestBuy which is a horrible performer in economic downturn also slashed guidance and their stock price rallied 10%. This market has become an utter joke and its pure manipulation due to QE and Buy Backs. At this point, I'm bullish. The more the bad news, the higher the market goes. Targets for S&P - 4209 - 4293 - 4340 If we break the dotted yellow line, we could see this going up towards the 4300 mark to the MA of 4350ish. If WWIII gets announced, I suspect this will rally to well over 7,000 or higher. There is no danger of a double top either at 4200, that is now a myth. Recession is a myth. Americans are actually FLUSHED with cash and prices aren't high enough and things in the US couldn't be better.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by WorldEconomics
2
SPY S&P SPX - Selling SoonHere we are in this bounce in the markets. We are seeing lower highs, lower lows. It is the best time to get into a position now. If you look at the timelines from peak to sell, its about 2-months. We're about overbought, and the economic data coming out is pretty horrible. Retail, autos, housing, buying and consumer sentiment, debt, revolving credit, personal debt... all these point to pain in the short term. Look at the 2/10YR inversion, which is surpassing passed recessions. Even the 3-month is far surpassing the 30YR. Cracks are forming everywhere and we are starting to see defaults and bankruptcies become a reality. Even IF the Fed softens and pivots, it wont make a difference. Statistics are showing that people are barely scraping by. Don't be caught off guard! Look at the data, not the delusional hosts on CNBC which will never admit the truth until we are deep in a crisis. This sell off or "crash" is a bit different than other ones. With most of the economic data worse off than 2008, the markets are not reflecting the economy whatsoever. The markets should be far lower, but, it seems that intervention of some sort is taking place... for how long, its to be seen. I would have liked to see a drop of 30%, rebound of 10%, 40% in wave 2, rebound of 15% but it seems like like markets are declining far slower than logical economists thought.
AMEX:SPYShort
by WorldEconomics
6
Dow Jones - DIA DJIBoy, are these markets something else. Since before 2008, markets correlated relatively close to economic data. Since the introduction of Fed intervention with slashed rates and Quantitative Easing, "markets" were able to "shrug" off even the worst geopolitical and economic events. In fact, it defies all logic. Logically, markets can and should ignore all TA when an economy is hurting significantly. There isn't a bright spot in the economic data. The consumer is badly beaten and barely holding on. Discretionary spending, credit card debt, personal debt, consumer sentiment, and consumer confidence show us that the average American is at their limit for what they can spend and do. A new study showed that 1 in 4 Americans are skipping Thanksgiving Dinner altogether because of the costs. Keep in mind the collapsing retail, collapsing freight by sea, and now the threat of rail strikes in December which is quickly becoming a reality. This of course is one of countless statistics that show the pain of average American. Other statistics show savings rates have plummeted and credit card debt is at record levels as people's pay-checks are no longer covering their expenditures. We've about peaked in this market, looking at a double top from August 2022.. but again, TA doesn't matter as it did before. MACD and RSI have PLENTY of room on the downside. Look at the economic data, even the TA for the short term and position accordingly. This chart can and will most likely reflect majority of stocks from S&P, Nasdaq, QQQ, SPY, IWM or Russell 2000.
AMEX:DIAShort
by WorldEconomics
8
New top this week, new bottom next weekMinor wave 4 should now be over leaving Minor wave 5 and the end of Intermediate wave 1 to occur by midweek. All a strong majority of models have the top at 2-3 days which equates to a top on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. Wednesday morning is the CPI report which could be the catalyst for the next short-term market drop. The report is premarket and therefore Minor wave 5 tops before the close on Tuesday. The most specific models point to a top around 4172, although the dataset does not contain enough points of reference to ensure a strong certainty. The next set of data points to a high between 4145-4159. While the broad set of data points to a high between 4169-4229. At the very least the index should drive above Minor wave 3 which topped at 4133.13. A top around 4150 is fair and achievable over the next two days. A move above 4190 is less likely. After Intermediate wave 1 concludes, Intermediate wave 2 should push the market down for about a week, but likely less than 2 full weeks (10 trading days). If wave 1 finishes on Tuesday with a top at 4160, Intermediate wave 1 would have lasted 20 trading days and gained 351.14 points from top to bottom. The following is a projection of Intermediate wave 2 based on the estimates for the end of Intermediate wave 1. Based on historical waves ending in 2BC2, Intermediate wave 2 could last 4 or 10 days with a bottom between 3947-4042. Based on waves ending in BC2, wave 2 could last 4, 6, 10, or 11 days with a bottom 3886-3953. Lastly the broader dataset based on waves ending in C2 indicate a duration of 4-7 or 10 days with a bottom between 3852-4002. For now, I will project the bottom around 3950 over 6 trading days which would be April 19. This would mean the index gives up a little over 200 points over a week of trading. This would require an average drop of 35 points per day which this market is easily capable of completing. The day of the CPI report would likely see more than this while other days could see less or slight gains. I will continue to monitor and provide new estimates as the waves complete.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
$CVS Breaking Out?First in full disclosure, I started a small position in this name today. Despite having a downgrade today, the price is improving. As noted on the chart, CVS has been in a downtrend since December of 2022. It looks to have broken out today. In addition, we have 3 short-term MA’s turning up which also makes a good stop loss area. Volume has just been so so but if you look at the bottom of the chart you will notice that we have a rising MACD signal. And we have a nice, rounded bottom. I’ll look to add to my position if it can continue to improve in price. All TBD. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
NYSE:CVSLong
by jaxdog
$ARKK Wedging$ARKK seems to be a barometer for risk-on risk-off in this market. A month ago, I was looking at the re-test of the 30 Week MA (white line) then the break back above the flat line of resistance to be a long signal. (I took the trade long only to be stopped out 3 days later.) That turned out to be a false breakout. We are now in a downward consolidation pattern that could break either way. I have alerts set at both sloping trendlines and I’ll look at taking a trade either long or short depending on the direction of the break. If going short, I’ll likely use $SARK an inverse ETF for the ARKK fund. I will also be looking for other longs or shorts in the market once ARKK breaks either way. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
AMEX:ARKK
by jaxdog
dji h3 IHS bulls buy low after pullback target 36 000🔸Hello guys, today let's review 3 hour price chart for DJI . Speculative Inverse H*S setup in progress. This pattern was recently covered in the reversal technical patterns overview, details see below. 🔸Strong V-shape recovery in progress should complete later near neckline at 34 230. Then we should get a decent pullback to form the RS of the IHS pattern structure. 🔸Recommended strategy bulls: after re-test of the neckline of the structure and subsequent pullback bulls should be ready to buy low near 32 700, which is also the RS of the pattern. Normally, we should target at least 36 000 based on measured move price projection. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:DJILong
by ProjectSyndicate
20
$NDX leads but has had issues in this area beforeBeen away for a week, needed time off. Visited family. Did some light trading, mostly closing closing puts sold as most of them expired worthless = We kept PREMIUM! 🙂 - Let's see how markets fared. - As we expected, $NDX has done decently & has kept retesting the upper boundary hit in February. It's breaking above today. BULLISH if accompanied with volume. As we've stated for months, markets don't act as most believe. They are irrational much of the time. - $DJI has not fared as well BUT will LIKELY join #NDX in the upward movement. The issue was 2 #banks on the #DJI. The #DowJones fared much better during the beginning of the year but lost leadership in February. - $VIX has stayed in the middle part of the Symmetrical Triangle. Which tends to be the case until as extreme direction ensues. As stated countless times this can stay the case until mid 2024! Most likely not but it can. We believe it will touch the bottom part of the trend, higher probability, before, IF, it hits the top part again. #stocks #stockmarket #vix
NASDAQ:NDX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
vix 8 hour chart another 150% spike in April?Hello traders, today let's review VIX 8hour and daily chart . Is it possible that another 150% burst is in the making now? Entirely plausible, in fact based on advanced XABCD setup the current pullback/correction might be over near 15/16.00 later in April. Based on time/price symmetry point C of the XABCD pattern structure might come in at 15/16.00 sometime in April 2023. The pattern is defined by point X at 33.00, point A at18.50, point B at 30.00, expecting point C print at 16.00 and point D print at 38.00, based on 127 extension. Recommended strategy: buy calls / write puts once we land near point C near 16.00. this is a higher risk entry strategy, so always do your own due dill and use other indicators to confirm the entry. good luck! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:VIXLong
by ProjectSyndicate
21
Who would you trust with your money?Spoiler alert: More evidence against NDQ in this idea! US Companies are organized in clusters, some of them are DJI, SPX, RUT, NDQ etc. Some of them are more trustworthy than others. And by that I mean which of these sets one can depend on. DJI is indeed a dependable group of companies, the so called Blue Chips. Composed of the 30 largest US Companies. These companies aren't playing around, they have deep foundations that can withstand the worst of crises. The opposite of foundation is hollow ground. In finance, one hollow ground could be derivatives. More info about the possible repercussions of derivatives in my last idea: Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction. -Warren Buffett I have talked about how you should not blindly trust the price of the main indices. And as we know, the effect of derivatives is embedded in the price we see every day in our Watchlists. Equity price is a victim of derivatives. You know, these derivatives which by default have no foundation and are susceptible to a possible crash like the .com bubble. Let's hope a ".options" crash doesn't come for derivatives. And if it does, let's hope that the "weapons of mass destruction" was a figure of speech! So how big is their effect? BIS warned about the hidden debt, the "everything bubble" we have created and we are comfortably sitting inside it. Buffett has warned about derivatives. The only thing I can analyze is these hyperbolic charts, namely SQQQ (short QQQ) and it's cousins DOG (short DJI) and SPXU (short SPX). To remotely begin to make sense of their nature, we have to reduce their exponent. Dividing a chart by an arbitrary amount doesn't "flatten" it to a lower growth scale. We will have to raise SQQQ to 0.2 for example to bring it down to meaningful and comparable levels. I tried normalizing these 3 beasts, using the following methodology: For the entire history of SQQQ we calculate the SQQQ^-1 chart, and measure how much it grew in this period. As seen above, SQQQ^-1 increased by 17000x. To make it comparable to QQQ, we progressively increase the exponent so as to make QQQ and SQQQ growths identical. If this explanation didn't make sense, the following chart may clear things out. So we come up with the following "balanced" derivative charts. SPX // SPXU^-0.216 DJI // DOG^-0.62 QQQ // SQQQ^-0.244 WIth the // symbol I mean that these charts move in parallel. So what can we infer from them? More speculation maybe, more questions than answers... But still, there seems to be some important difference between them. I will divide these two charts to make some sense. When the chart increases, the "real" part of the index is increasing. When the chart decreases, the "derivative" part of the index is increasing. So in a sense, the chart increases when indices grow fairly , without cheating using derivatives. First SPX Next DJI Finally QQQ (NDQ) Painful... Is this derivative bubble the only reason NDQ is still afloat in this immense QT environment? In an attempt to keep business going and as money gets scarce, Big Tech is pushing prices higher using an immense amount of derivatives. Are these derivatives going to be the doom of NDQ? All of this may be speculative and some charts may not be financially true. But sometimes, price simply discounts everything. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
AMEX:DOG
by akikostas
10
GS WAVE C CRASH EARLY STAGEThe chart posted is my top wave count based on ew and cycles I do not in anyway see the Fed coming to the rescue the cycles I stated in dec 2021 are clear the deflation of ALL assets min downside is and will be at or about the march 23 low 2020. . I have been every clear based on 121 years of data the 20 month avg turned down and had 90 days to overcome the 4250 area in the sp 500 we have now passed it 3 days ago we are only mid point in the Bear Market and the worst has yet to come . The fed will reduce the balance sheet over the next 24/30 months and based on the Mandate of 1913 to keep INFLATION under control .I stated in dec 2021 the we ended a super cycle bull market dated back to 1974 and most likey to 1932 under both views my target of 3511/3490 was going to be the first leg down . We ended the abc rally into aug 16th as the forecast called for then dropped into the time cycle due oct 4th to the 20th focus oct 10th we have rallied into alt date for wave 2 into feb top the only way to view this drop at BEST is a wave B . I have moved all my funds into us T BILLS . the wave C CRASH based on all the data back to 1902 has min date is OCT 2023 and No New BULL MARKET till OCT 2024 The DEPRESSION LOW . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER . I ALWAYS SAID I WOULD BE HONEST AND STRAIGHT FORWARD
NYSE:GS
by wavetimer