Disney
Disney - Straddles going into Earnings? Hey Traders! Disney is reporting earnings today after market close. There really isn't much technical analysis can do to determine what outcome the report will have on the stock price. But I will say this... Disney's stock showed decent price appreciation in the last two and a half weeks going from lows of $117.23 per share to highs of $147.68 per share. Although Disney is off it's highs, the current trading price of Disney's stock is $135, which is still above its 8 day exponential moving average. Whether Disney meets, beats, or misses analysts estimates for this quarter's EPS and Revenue, the option prices are a big move for Disney. A look at the "At The Money" straddles (at the 135 Strike, expiring tomorrow) show they are trading for nearly $600 .
Which means Disney would need to move up or down by $6.00 per share just to break even. Right? But wait...
Keep in mind that option prices are also made up of premium.. which consists of time value and implied volatility. Implied Volatility is considered a measurement of the perceived risk for an individual option contract. That risk is then priced into that option as a premium. Usually, implied volatility is at its highest before anticipated earnings reports or company news announcements. The day after the news is made public, implied volatility usually drops, which can drastically lower options prices.
In reality, you would need more than a $6.00 per share move in Disney stock considering. I say this because there is nothing more frustrating than seeing you were right on the expected move, but lost money on the option because you forgot to consider the effects of implied volatility.
Now, grab your favorite drink, sit back and watch Disney's stock after the bell as they are expected to report 5 minutes after market close.
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DIS bullish above $128Gap from ER not filled, held by 100 & 200MA, very bullish signal, and strong uptrend since then
gap filled from the previous gap up, also strong bounce off 20MA, closed at the previous pivot point.
MACD & CCI both pointing up, the only thing I'm concerned with is the volume.
I expect we break here and go to the previous high 131-135 range
$DIS starting an uptrend movementFirst objective price: between $129/133 if the trend continues could go up until $137-138
Multitime frame stochastic RSI + many other indicators, could look messy but I think it's understandable.
I add some shares where is the yellow dashed line and the arrow.
This is not an investment advice.
DIS PUTS will PrintDisney forming a bear flag on the 4Hr Chart, also see a gap down at 118.66. News not looking to good for Disney, news came out saying Disney has released thousands of employees and with Covid to keep parks closed for awhile I'm expecting Disney to bleed more. Break that 119 support zone we will drop to 109$.
TB - $DIS 124.00 Gann Fan Analysis - Oct/2020Well, after 6 months away from charting I'm back at the keys.
Here's the current setup and sentimental for swing trade on $DIS 124.00
Strategy calls for use of RSI and Gann fan drawn on the technical window.
Setup is looking for continuation of Bear trend.
Key price points on Gann So9 to come.
-Bucks
Working on a major resistance breakThe .786 fib shown here is the same (by a penny) as a retracement from pre-covid highs to March lows. This should yield major upside above. Still, this is trading in a range and offers multiple entries and exits. As Disney seems to trade following SPX and is especially sensitive to COVID news, market conditions and any news catalysts (positive or negative) will be particularly of note.
$DIS Bulls 3-Press In To Support$DIS had a bit of a stumble dipping down but, to unsuspecting bears (so far), buyers were waiting for the right time to strike. The massive one-two punch of a 3-Press Low Pattern dipping in to rising support was good enough but if anyone doubted them, the bull bar closed out super strong. Either the buyers rip this higher or this is a final stand and we get a strong break down.
Disney starting to trade in a channel Disney over the last week or two seems to have formed multiple tops and bottoms at about 137 and 131 respectively. At least in the short term I'm expecting that to continue. I dont think I need to state the obvious on when to go long/short, but watch the RSI/volume and should this trend be broken, consider either of these points could flip to be a resistance/support.
DIS Disney in a Long-Term Correction. What's next?DIS (The Walt Disney Company) is an old favorite for many who have had it or have it in their long-term portfolios, especially with this stock's long-term history.
The last 10-20 years have been some of the best for Disney with Bob Iger at the helm and the successful M&A, Creative, Movie launches and much more (Star Wars, MARVEL, New acquisition of FOX properties and much more).
The upward momentum for Disney seemed like it would never end. That is, until the pandemic of 2020 proved that Disney was overexposed. Whether theme parks, movie release and launch delays and compromises, and ESPN sports covering nothing interesting for several months, the trifecta took hold and saw DIS take a 50% retracement off its high in just a few weeks.
DIS proved resilient. Having already invested in the future of digital with Disney+ and bringing in a new CEO Bob Chapek to lead the new chapter of Disney, there was a glimmer of hope for Disney.
Still, long-term market cycles (note my WEEKLY chart) don't recover overnight. Expect DIS to continue seeing volatility in this large consolidation pattern. One might unfortunately link the stock's performance directly to sentiment on the pandemic and any hopes for a vaccine and re-opening of the economy, especially entertainment venues and attractions which Disney is overly dependent on.
DIS is a risky stock in the short to mid-term but can be a fun stock to trade while raising money to save a few shares in your long-term investment portfolio.
$DIS holding up well (potential value play)This is the weekly chart for $DIS.
In April '19, a huge volume spike propelled the stock out of its multi year trading range. It went on to trade as high as $153 a few months later, before falling back to its range.
Early last month, we see a similarly huge volume spike out of its trading range. Prices held, just like what it did back then; more importantly, the recent sell off in tech did not hit other industries as hard -- this is possibly a sign of sector rotation towards value stocks.
I have a small position in $DIS and am looking at a target of around $150
Who doesnt <3 growing up with Disney?Currently close to a very strong resistance point at around 128-130 range
the next support resistance point is at 116-117 range.
Key pointers;
like a portfolio, Disney is a great diversified business
- media
- theme parks
- hotels & cruise
- merchandise & royalties
- Disney+ (recently Mulan movie featured there!)
Theme Parks / hotels & cruise account for around 35% of the over business of Disney and though badly impacted, they are still generating through merchandise / royalties (oh the number of products lunches with other brands during recessions are staggering), entertainment channels and subscription through Disney+. If can only get bigger!
2nd Nov Target Price - Low / $138
2nd Nov Target Price - High / $152