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Distribution

Price Action Similarities between the NASDAQ and BitcoinThere is a lot on the main chart but lets go through it directly: Both had a parabolic run up and Over 80% corrections Both Created a W pattern with a higher low around the 0.236 retracement level from the height to initial low BTC intermediate high stalled at the 0.786 while NDX intermediate high was around the lower 0.500 (not shown on chart). Consequentially NDX did not show the same bullishness and perhaps that is why the subsequent uptrend was not as impulsive Both Stalled briefly at the previous high (the 1 level) BTC had a very neat consolidation at the 1.271 and 1.414 levels level while NDX showed a lot of chop BTC entered a clear distribution at the 1.618 Level Forecasting The primary supposition based on this chart is that NDX will enter a technical distribution pattern as BTC did and this process can take a long time. Below is a scenario that I could see replay. Previous resistance gets turned into support and then sets up the trendline of the bull trap. You can see this al over the place when parabolic moves end and there is a fair chance we will see it again. The time measurement on the chart shows from the time the price broke free of resistance until the bull trap was in. We may run into a lot of the same narratives with NDX as we did with BTC. People expecting a blw off top like the 00 bubble pop. Or "Printer go brrrrrr" type analysis. Side Rant It is sadly impressive how people can develop for themselves a system to determine their bias in trading whether to go long or short on a time frame but still get completely torn up and don't get the message. Below is a very important chart for NDX and if you follow me even somewhat closely the system should be recognizable. There is the VSTOP, the VSTOP X3 timeframe, the 20W and the MACD. When the VSTOP, MTF VSTOP and 20M are all below price action it is a clear sign that the macro trend is bullish. You should be taking longs and taking profits. To be honest I took some calls on SQQQ that paid well and some that did not during the last couple of months and it really wasn't worth the stress so I stopped. To continue that point I have seen lots of crypto traders on Youtube or Trading view that had systems that the have appeared to abandon. They were going to be bearish if BTC slipped the 21 EMA or the 20w SMA.... And now they are bullish again somehow despite price action still being below the moving average. Traders that clearly saw the 2018 descending triangle cannot see the head and shoulders. People that used MA cross overs to determine bias have abandoned that, people that use the cloud have abandoned that because they are stuck on a bullish bias even after their systems tell them not to. Same with cloud traders. The cloud for bitcoin is flipped bearish on the daily or three daily and these traders are looking to go long on the 4h chart. Madness. Back to the analysis Since NDX is at a major target level this could be where a trader or investor decides to rotate some of their portfolio out of growth stocks. Into what I recommend anything as I am not a financial advisor. In this system you would not contemplate going short without a clear distribution pattern on the weekly timeframe that could take months or until the VSTOP flipped and then you would short into strength. Once the MACD crosses and price is below all the indicators it is a full multi-year bear market. If (and that is still a big if) we do flip the monthly to a bearish bias the target for the next major consolidation is the 200 month EMA/SMA. Conclusion It is a "big if" if I am correct in several ways. It may take a month or so for this to get shorted out and lots of people may get surprised by an upward trust after distribution. I can see a lot of people getting torn up because they take shorts too soon, or get timed out of their option calls. Relief rallies can blow a bunch of shorter out of the water.
TVC:NDQShort
by This_Guhy
7
Wyckoff Distribution PhasesDisclaimer: This is a personal observation, I don't intend to claim this facts as the absolute truth of the events that are happening in the market. As we can observe, the Wyckoff Distribution Model suggests that BINANCE:ADAUSDT is standing on the Last Point of Support and (supposedly) should bounce back looking forward to get back on track with the B ull market . It will take a while for the price to show this sentiment, but if this continues, we would definitely see Cardano getting back on the $1.40 level. Trade safe. Cheers.
by patofunes
Quickpost: Low Time Frame Wycoff DistributionTop chart is the 15 minute chart and shows the key components to distribution. As of right now there has not been a key return to the ice. This is also some what provisional as usually they are way more Signs of Weakness in the move so this would be less reliable than the topping formation BTC saw at 60K The 4 hour chart shows that this trend line has been flipping support and resistance for a while now so the move would be big either side. My bias remains to the downside. Happy 4th of July
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
3
Are We Going To $80k?Here's the deal, As being one of the first trades to point out Accumulation, i've been at both sides of the story. Price being right at the middle of the trading range, it's time to evaluate current situation from both angles. 1- We are in Accumulation. The spring action is being tested and breaking 37k would validate it along with higher highs and lower lows. In Wyckoff analysis, horizontal column counts are used to calculate potential. Right now we have 17 columns (17x3x1000=51.000) and this fuel is enough to take us to 80-84k area. Wait, but aren't we going to 100k? Well that's the psychological target, but the current state of our data says we have enough fuel for 80-84k. The good news is that the more we go sideways the higher we go. 2- We are in Redistribution The poor rally and break of the uptrend are weaknesses that can validate a redistribution. However, the 17 column count far exceeds the current price level, which i mentioned in my previous analysis. We simply can't fall below zero :) So, in an effort to make this work, i've segmented the structure in to two at the second highest volume drop. That is the last 5 columns and that equals to a 15k drop, taking us to $20k as widely rumored. Calculate Your Risk If we want to open a long position today with a traget of $80k and a stop loss level at $18k, our risk to reward ratio will be 2.76 - at the worst case (if we are not going to $10k). This means If you invest $100 today, you'll have $376 when the price target is reached. Not bad. However, if the shakeout happens, the worst case we can see is 18k, meaning a ~50% drop. Will you be able to handle that stress without selling? TBH I don't know the answer, but the reward is still 2.76x if you stand strong. With proper risk management and position sizing i believe this risk can be mitigated. Final thoughts I see 2 possible scenarios now: 1- A rally towards 80k followed by a small re-accumulation, taking us above $100k 2- A break down to 20k followed by 7-8 weeks accumulation, following a rally towards 80k, followed by small re-accumulation towards $100k. I'm really neutral here, but looks like $80k will be an important level. What's your take? Go long now, or wait for 20k?
by BitcoinMillio18
70
#Bitcoin Road To $100K - Wyckoff Accumulation UpdatedI've digged deeper in to details and updated the accumulation phase we are entering. While the length of each phase can differ, this is pretty much what it will look like to reach $100k. So, sideways accumulation looks like it will continue in trading range until October, while institutions accumulate, following a rally / markup to $80k and the distribution will begin, topping at 102k by the end of January and then the cycle will repeat. Forever. Laura. :)))
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
108