AUD/USD - SECOND DISTRIBUTION PATTERN FORMING - HEADING LOWER?A clear second distribution pattern is forming.
We have selling into the moves higher on the recent BC and ST by the looks of the volume.
We are also approaching a re-test of the AR in the first larger distribution pattern.
The downward trend that has formed also indicates a re-test approaching.
Watching this closely for some reversal signals to get into a longer term short trade.
Do your own research and good luck.
Distribution
Buy and HoldThis is based purely on fundamentals and industry market conditions. This is one of the first disruptive technologies in the gold mining industry and I can see this reacting in a very similar way as many innovative ideas that have been implemented into parallel industries such as oil and gas.
USD/CAD WEEKLY TREND BREAKOUT Price Action (Technical Analysis): It is not rare nor surprising to see price repeat itself, Weekly time frame I have anticipated this breakout as we saw price previously breakout and distribute itself all the way to our Weekly support. I'm expecting Sellers to dominate as we are ready for a short opportunity, we do not see price breaking higher highs and higher lows weekly, in lower time frames we are gaining more reason to go short. A big push down (Impulse) would give us more confidence to enter this Distribution Phase.
Fundamental Analysis: We do not have any Major News today that would put our idea into a 50/50 idea.. however we do have very important news happening tomorrow with the Greenbacks. Following ahead of Tuesday we have G20 News starting up & USD-CHN Trade War can easily affect all price action ideas. Stay updated with News and anticipate big moves happening.
I''m not one to push this as much as this is just an Idea for Traders to see opportunity in but use very good risk management and be patient as the market does not just move Up, Down, Sideways.. as Traders we should expect fake outs. This is why having a Price Action Strategy with a set of rules can build confidence and a Highly Improved Trader. Best of luck to everyone this week...
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/12/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to trade sideways while printing higher lows toward the $8100 resistance on the lower TFs. It doesn't amaze me anymore that novice traders think highly bearish in spite of this development. Many of y'all are still in disbelief at this 6 month bull market. Sadly, what they fail to understand is that even a correction toward $6000 is not bearish. It's a pullback in a bull market. It's one of the most bullish things that can happen as it gives traders the opportunity to ride the next wave up. The biggest thing that novice traders have to overcome is their emotion and they can start by choosing to use non-emotional words. The higher lows on the lower TFs don't guarantee that price will go up, but they should at least give traders pause when being so bearish. The higher TFs are showing higher lows and higher highs, however price has been trading sideways for a month now while printing a higher high and currently a possible higher low. The daily shows price consolidating against resistance.
A couple of days ago price left the descending channel it had been in for two weeks prior. It then retested channel resistance as support yesterday and since then has been printing higher lows and highs. I have two support lines noted on the 1H RSI and 1H Stoch RSI is consolidating just under overbought. The higher lows toward resistance has me thinking that we should see a good pop upward through that resistance. As a reminder, the red line is the monthly pivot, the dashed purple line is the 2018 TR EQ, and the horizontal black line around $8400 is the top of the TR that price has been printing for about a month now. Price is also currently back above the 1H pivot.
There are a couple of targets to watch at this time based on channels and TRs. The red target is based on the large descending channel and targets that fresh supply in the blue zone from the recent swing high. The blue target is based on the blue TR and targets the 2018 TR EQ. The purple target is one that traders should also keep an eye on. There is the possibility that price has printed a triple bottom as noted in purple. If price can close above that swing high at $8115, then we could see price targeting ~$8800 and that gets it pretty close to the red channel target at ~$8970. If price falls further, then I will continue watching the same support levels that I have been mentioning for a while now including the noted demand zones on this chart.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Wyckoff on BTC for last 6 months; daily chartA look at the supply and demand shifts for BTC during the past 180 days. It looks like we are nearing the end of a full cycle, from accumulation to mark up and now entering the end of distribution. We begin phase D of distribution once/if price returns to the former trading range of $7600-$8400. I do believe that we are in a clear bull market, my expectation for the markdown (phase E) would be a bottom somewhere in between the .382 - .5 fib ($6100ish-$6700ish). This has confluence with a touch of the 50 day MA, a common retest during BTC bull markets.
JSE:HAR Harmony Looking WeakAfter showing signs of strength (SoS) (see the previous post) the tide seems to have turned and we are seeing some signs of weakness (SoW). Volatility has increased to the downside. The smaller TR that has formed at the top of the larger TR is also showing an increase in volatility indicating distribution. With the rally in gold, the rally in harmony has been poor and could not break the highs. This looks like there is some downside to come.
Bitcoin Started to Distribution of Phase DWeekly rsi was overbought and it has sell pressure from the weekly ma50 so I think we just started to Phase D of distribution. Before to rise again, rsi needs to take breath also we need to check support lines. This brings a short opportunity here.
Short between 5250-5150.
Tp1 : 4920
Tp2 : 4780
If support lines broke,
Tp3 : 4620
Tp4 : 4480
Stop Loss: over 5350.
This is my first post in here so all kindly criticism and suggestions are welcome.
All the best and good luck for you.
SPX distribution TR?Distribution TR?
- Diverging volume (only converging with price rise during reactionary bounce through TR's EQ)
- Overall decreasing volume and candle spread
- RSI falling through support
- Stoch RSI double top in overbought and will print bearish cross if price settles here or lower for the week
- Current doji candle may be signalling an imminent reversal
- Price falling through blue C-Fork (Chuvashov Fork) support should indicate upcoming series of lower highs.
- Failure of HVN at $2650 to hold should mark end of market distribution and further movement into markdown.
JSE:S32 South32 Looking WeakA little like Kumba S32 is looking week in a strong sector. The relative strength to the resources sector is rolling over. I previously looked at the structure as accumulation but this seems to have been an upthrust (UT) that met with supply (Increased volume on UT). The volatility to the downside has increased from 19 to 28 to 34%. The upward stride has been broken and is being retested. This looks weak and probably is distribution. The recent rally was without any conviction, even though it was over the holiday period.
JSE:MND Mondi Change of CharacterI prefer identifying horizontal trading ranges (TR) but in the case of Mondi I will make an exception due to the clear change of character (CoC) that was seen in the previous decline. At the end of 2018 we have seen a decline that has never been seen in the stock before, with some volume. The attempted rally has been weak and I am expecting a markdown to begin. The TR also started with the largest decline at the time and volatility has been increasing as the slanting TR developed indicating distribution.
from accumulation to distribution: trading plan for pound aud
hey traders,
on pound aussie we have a very good example of market phases.
pair is now approaching a decent level of resistance,
and the market leaves multiple clues of bulls exhaustion.
first of all, analyzing volumes,
we see that smart money dont buy anymore,
and prefer rather to sell:
also, we have weakening overbought rsi with clear divergence,
and formation of a head and shoulders pattern.
all these things signify the distribution market phase.
last thing that we are waiting for is the violation of a neckline.
then we can freely sell the market with the targets based on structure.
good luck!
JSE:GRT Growthpoint Distribution Complete?Growthpoint has been in a trading range since 2013. After a good uptrend, there was a throw over of the upward stride and a climax formed. The volatility to the downside has increased and Signs of Weakness (SoW) can be seen. Now after an Upthrust after Distribution (UTAD) and a test we have now seen a Last Point of Supply (LPSY). Looking for a high volatility breakout to the downside for the markdown to begin.
ETH struggling to break the 4-hour 100 MA; possible DistributionETH/USD is entering into a tightening range as we have strong resistance at the 4-hour 100 MA and support from the 50/200 4-hour MA's. With that said, I am leaning bearish in part due to LTC (see my other post for context on this.) Going along with that, the current side-ways range looks a lot like distribution to me; and that could indicate an eventual drop/dump. This is also a contrarian trade as most of the sentiment right now is bullish across the board, and when everyone thinks the same, it means someone isn't thinking.
Strong resistance: 4-hour 100 MA.
Potential zones for the price to drop if it does break down:
-4 hour 50 MA.
-4 hour 200 MA.
-Prior support zone around $125-126.
Moving average guide (All 4-hour moving averages for this post):
10 MA in Orange
20 MA in Pink
50 MA in Green
100 MA in Yellow
200 MA in Red
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk.
JSE:KIO Kumba Being DistributedThe resources sector has been strong but Kumba has been a laggard in the sector. The Trading Range (TR) that was formed seems to have the characteristics of distribution with increased volatility. The volatility to the downside is seen by increased spreads, gaps and increase volume. Pullbacks have been on lower volume. After the recent pullback, Kumba is ready to be marked down out of the TR.
JSE:RMI Rand Merchant Investments Markdown to start?Last year I followed the distribution pattern on RMI (See post below) which now seems to be completing. Price had found support at the at the bottom of the Trading Range (TR) but was unable to rally back the top of the TR. After some consolidation, we see a change of character bar (Significant reversal bar). RMI could now be ready to break out and start the markdown.
KO Earnings: Dark Pool Rotation vs. BuybacksCoca Cola has been in a major buyback mode for its stock in an attempt to move the price up. The buybacks have faced heavier than normal Dark Pool rotation (large lot selling) against the automated buyback orders. Recently the buybacks have increased, creating some interesting anomalies in the large lot indicators as well as in price patterns. Retail traders, who trade this stock heavily, are often fooled by buyback candlestick patterns. Institutional holdings has declined, which is unusual during a buyback mode.