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Divergence

$US10Y and $DXY Divergence and correlation breakdownRecent weeks we might have missed some underlying churn in the market dynamics. Recently there has been a clear visible divergence in TVC:US10Y and TVC:DXY in midst of all the noise about the tariffs. Usually with rising TVC:US10Y yield the US Dollar index TVC:DXY rises with it as visible in the chart below. In this blog we have been following the downward slopping channel in the TVC:US10Y and the yield has remained within this tight range of the channel. In our last blog on 02 May 25 we called for a lower TVC:US10Y @ 4%. Seems that call was incorrect and I was wrong. But in this space, we have been asking for a lower $DXY. The TVC:DXY chart is making lower highs and lower lows and in a verge of a breakdown. So we have higher TVC:US10Y which is capped to the upside @ 4.6% visible from the upper end of the downward slopping channel and we have TVC:DXY making lower lows but the correlation is broken in the recent weeks as shown in the daily chart below. This kind of unpredictable market behavior it’s difficult to forecast equity market direction. TVC:US10Y seems to create headwind for equities but the lower TVC:DXY is good for risk assets like CRYPTOCAP:BTC , SP:SPX and $QQQ. Hence this push and pull will keep the markets range bound for now. Verdict : TVC:US10Y currently at top of the range, downside more likely ; TVC:DXY continues to struggle and in penalty box.
TVC:US10Y
by RabishankarBiswal
Gold Bulls Taking a Breather?Gold has been in an overall uptrend since late January, steadily climbing with strong bullish momentum. After peaking around $3,440 in early April, price pulled back and found support near $3,171, bouncing from that level and now approaching resistance around $3,300. Recently, price has shown signs of recovery, but the move still hasn’t broken the downtrend from the previous highs. The current area near $3,300–$3,365 is critical. If Gold can break and hold above this zone, it may retest the $3,440 high. But if price gets rejected again, a pullback toward $3,171 or even $2,972 is possible. Technical indicators are sending mixed signals. The RSI is around 57, showing moderate bullish strength, but not overbought. However, the Stochastic is in overbought territory with a bearish crossover forming, which could mean a short-term dip is coming. Gold is still trading above all major moving averages, which supports a longer-term bullish outlook. The bigger picture favors bulls, especially because of recent economic and geopolitical news. The U.S. Dollar has weakened after Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating and concerns grew over a massive new tax-cut bill. Tensions between the U.S. and China, as well as ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, have also driven safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, traders are betting on potential rate cuts later in 2025, which tends to boost Gold. Key levels to watch: Resistance: $3,300 and $3,440 Support: $3,171 and $2,972 Bias Summary: Upward Bias: Weak USD, rising geopolitical risk, safe-haven demand, Fed rate cut expectations, price above major moving averages, aggressive central bank buying Neutral Bias: RSI mid-range, price near resistance Downward Bias: Stochastic overbought with bearish crossover, potential lower high formation, hidden bearish divergence. Overall Bias: Bullish Long-term, Bearish potential short term – Fundamentals support further upside, but caution is needed near resistance for retracements.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Jacques1000
2
$SPY – Bearish RSI Divergence + Gap Below = Risky Setup👀 The RSI divergence has been signaling weakness for several sessions — with lower highs on momentum while price made higher highs. And now, we’re stalling right at a volume shelf (see VRVP) with a big unfilled gap looming just below. ⚠️ Things to watch: Bearish RSI divergence ✔️ Price breakdown confirmation below $582 Gap fill target = ~$572 VRVP shows thin volume beneath current price If momentum rolls over from here, this could accelerate fast into that gap zone.
AMEX:SPY
by SmartSignalss
BTC Potential Short-Term PullbackBINANCE:BTCUSDT could be setting itself up for a short-term pullback. It might be forming a Daily RSI Bear Divergence, with the latest retest of the the main supply zone, and RSI Divs/Breakouts have been reliable leading signals for recent CRYPTOCAP:BTC PA. Key Levels to Watch • $119k - Measured wedge target, confirmed with last month's breakout. • $106.2k-$109.5k - Main supply and ATH, a sustained break above it would invalidate any bearish PA. • $89.6k-$91.9k - Lots of confluence here: - Unmitigated daily FVG - The 200-day EMA is sitting there - A move here would be between 0.5 and 0.618 Fib retracement of the last leg up, consistent with the typical pullback length of Wave 2 (Elliott Waves theory) - It has also been an important S/R since November 2024, and a retracement here could form an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. I would be patient with it, as I still see a lot of uncertainty short-term, but I think a pullback to ~$90k could offer a great long entry. Worth keeping a close eye on it.
Short
by AliferCrypto
I Think I Should Just Trade This SetupI Think I Should Just Trade This Setup So long story short, I just: 0. Assess whether price has Seeked Liquidity, or Rebalanced Fair Value to get a clue of current price intention. 1. Wait for Overextended Price (Bearish or Bullish), Higher TF = Better 2. Wait for 4HR up to 15min Divergence + Oversold/Overbought, at least 2 TF with same divergence 3. On 15min, plot your FVA (PDA must be respected). 4. Look for your FVG entry once price has left the FVA. 5. Target nPOCs that align with divergence + price action direction (ex. npoc below price + bearish div + premium array respected + bearish orderflow leg) I've been winning "random" trades like this, no TradingView needed, just MT5, and has saved my funded account from imminent death lol. But here's how, if I looked back on those trades, I entered. I mean, this makes sense. Combine Price Action(PDA + FVA Respected) with Volume Momentum. Oh, and just to add. I think nPOCs from previous sessions give a good clue about where price wants to go. For example, npoc below price + bearish div & overbought + premium array respected + bearish orderflow leg = target nPOC. I might have to track tradingview entries to see if this actually works.
by reventioaxie
Divergence Since 2020 - What Happens When Bonds Continue?When Stocks & Bond Move Opposite Direction what does it mean? We have observed a divergence between the stock and bond markets since 2020. While U.S. Treasury bonds entered a bear zone, the stock markets continued their upward climb. What are the implications of this decoupling? Will the stock market resume its uptrend and hit new highs? Or is this merely a retracement before further downward pressure? A healthy, three-way interdependent relationship occurs when the economy, bonds, and stocks move in the same direction. When investors have confidence in the U.S. economy, they tend to invest in long-term bonds, which it usually will benefits the stock market. This alignment was evident between 2000 and 2020, during which bonds and stocks moved largely in tandem. However, from 2020 onward, bonds began declining—signaling a loss of investor confidence in the economy. Technically, this should exert downward pressure on stocks as well. Yet, we are witnessing a divergence: Where U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen while stocks have continued to rise. When such a divergence surfaces, it signals the need for caution in our approach in the stock markets. What could be the other reasons why US T-bond has peaked in 2020 and depreciated by 44% since then? Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by konhow
2
BTC Potential Breakout, Daily DivergenceBTC on the daily has the opportunity to expand way upwards over the next month - a divergence on the daily evidently takes longer to play out but RSI could easily reach 80 off the back of the structure. I have been shorting, confidently, for a good few weeks now, with longs in between, but I'm starting to feel like I should flip long. Solana is also trying to reclaim the daily/weekly range - things to think about for sure. Good luck out there!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by hokblake
1
MARA...Poised to turn ??MARA Holdings, Inc. is a digital asset technology company, which engages in mining cryptocurrencies with a focus on the Bitcoin ecosystem. They have a current P/E of 8.18 and a slightly positive seasonal rating. Generally there is a fairly good correlation with BTC. Technically I see several patterns at present: 1. A Bullish Wolfe Wave 2. A Complete ABCD pattern 3. A Longer term Harmonic Bullish Crab pattern. 4. Positive RSI divergence appears to be present, I point this out being fully aware of the present chaos the market is in. Specifically : 1. With a Tariff Policy probably formulated from a CHATGPT search by a DOGE junior staffer. 2. Where s 401(K)s risks becoming a 201(K)s. 3. Where the Waffle House appears not to care and but can shift and change policy at any point. 4. Analysts estimated are positive (insert) That said and with a stronger BTC and a generally positive market shift, I believe MARA will participate. Note: There is a longer term crab pattern in play which suggests we may bottom out around the $7 area. We need clarification and a reversal of currently ill advised and destructive tariff policy. I will entertain a long position if we close above the $11.60 area with volume, a stronger BTC a positive market outlook and tariff nullification. My Targets are marked. Analysts targets ate an insert. Q4 and Full year earnings are set for early May. Q3 exceeded expectations This is not Investment advice. Do your own due diligence. S.
NASDAQ:MARA
by Steve666
1
Crypto Bulls Awaken – Is This Just the Beginning?In the past 48 hours, the crypto market has brought joy to traders and investors who managed to buy near the bottom. (Sorry to the cryptobros still holding floating losses—your time will come too! 😊) Some of you might be thinking it's too late to ride this bull run. But if you zoom out and look at the bigger picture, there's still plenty of room for the bull to run. Just switch to a higher timeframe like the weekly or monthly chart, and you'll see the potential upside. One coin that looks particularly interesting is BINANCE:SUIUSDT . There's been a pullback from 2.1829 - 1.7997, and it's supported by bullish divergence, suggesting a continuation of the impulsive move with 7.6108 as the first major target. This bullish scenario remains valid as long as the price holds above 1.7174. You might be wondering, " So can I just buy/long BINANCE:SUIUSDT now? " Not yet. For a better entry and a more favorable risk-reward ratio, I suggest using the daily chart. Wait for a pullback, then look for confirmation using candlestick patterns. (I'll cover those patterns in my next post—stay tuned!)
Long
by EkyFabyanto
Nifty Closes 1000 Points Higher – Will It Catch Up with BNFIn a strong move, Nifty 50 surged by 1000 points to close at 23,851, compared to last week’s close. The index made a weekly high of 23,872 and a low of 23,207. As highlighted in last week's analysis, a breakout above 23,400 could push Nifty toward 23,900 — a target it missed by just 23 points. However, an intriguing divergence has emerged between Nifty and Bank Nifty. While Bank Nifty has scaled a new all-time high, Nifty still trades significantly below its previous all-time high of 26,277. This sets the stage for an interesting dynamic: Will Nifty rally to close the gap, or will Bank Nifty face a correction? What to Expect Next Week? For the upcoming week, Nifty is expected to trade in a range between 23,200 and 24,414. Despite the bullish signals on the daily and weekly timeframes, the monthly chart remains weak, indicating that volatility is likely to persist until a broader trend confirmation. S&P 500 Outlook: Bounce or Breakdown? The S&P 500 index saw a mild pullback, closing around 80 points lower from the previous week’s close of 5,363. Our “sell on rise” strategy mentioned last week worked well, as the index dipped post-rally. Now, things get technically interesting. On the weekly chart, the S&P 500 is forming a potential bullish W pattern and an inside bar. A breakout above the previous week's high of 5,481 could trigger upward targets of 5,551, 5,637, and 5,679. However, on the downside, a break below 5,115 would reintroduce bearish pressure, which could have negative ripple effects across global markets. Key Market Takeaways: Nifty 50: Strong rally, but still below ATH. Watch 23,200–24,414 range next week. Bank Nifty: At ATH, diverging from Nifty – crucial to monitor. S&P 500: At a technical crossroads – potential for breakout or breakdown
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11