Divergence
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I bought half a position and so far the price hasn't under cut its support at $25, just were my stop is. For me this is a really good sign, considering what the SP:SPX is doing.
The bad thing is that the OBV and ROC is signaling a bearish divergence. If I had full position I'd have cut it in half.
So, as long as it doesn't break from the $25 support I'll hold my position.
If price goes above $29.50 I'll add more.
SPX - this rally could have legsDespite that bullish engulfing candle with strong volume on 13 Oct, the market continued to climb a wall of worry for the next 5 days. However last Friday's strong close is a "follow through" day that added to my conviction that this rally could last a fair bit.
On the Monthly Chart (not shown here):
A potential "bullish piercing candle" (monthly ) will be formed if by the end of this month we have a close above 3762. So let's see!
On the weekly chart:
1. SPX had rallied after testing the first major support @ 3500 on 13 October (last major support is around 3200, may not get there)
2. we see bullish divergence playing out
On the daily chart:
if SPX can close above it's immediate resistence @3800 (a mini inverse H&S neckline and also the 50% fib retracement of the recent XY down swing, then it could attempt to rally (minor pullbacks not withstandng) towards 4100 (inverse H&S target, incidentally 4000 - 4100 zone is critical as it also where the major downward trendline resistance is. The bears and bulls will be having their last battle here.
Could this be just another bear rally (albeit a strong one) or could the market have bottomed out at it's most recent low of 3491? I guess we will never know for sure except on hindsight.
The market seem to be resisting much lower levels than 3500 (at the worst case we could have a double dip back towards 3500 within the next few months although I feel the chance of market going lower than that is diminishing. Still protective stop loss is must.
p/s Fed starting to sound less hawkish in the coming days could be the ultimate signal for the bulls.
definition of "follow through day" here: www.investors.com
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
The easiest way to spot divergences and how to trade them
Welcome to the coffee shop everybody. This is your host and baristo Eric, and in today's video I am giving you a video Lesson based off of my preferences on how you should look for and use RSI Divergences.
THe Oscillator used in this video is The Heiken Ashi Algo Oscillator
Get it free here and always BOOOOOOOOOOST IT!!
There are three problems that people have whether they are experts or when they are novices in spotting Divergence between the RSI and price.
First problem is they don't know where to look because the RS I can have hundreds of high values and hundreds of low values but you need to know which ones are the relevant ones to look at.
The second problem is a common question where people ask "which way will the price go?"
The answer to that is basically the slope of the RSI is the new slope of your price so, if the RSI is angled up your price will angle up. If the RSI is angled down your price will angle down.
Now hold on a minute don't run off and start acting like you know how to trade divergences yet because there's still question number 3.
When will it go in that direction?
Just because you see a Divergence doesn't mean it's going to immediately happen so you need to know what to look for to let you know that it is actually going to go in that direction and when will that Trend begin. So in today's video I do a nice lengthy coverage on how to spot those answers and you can use the oscillator in the video by going to this link.
Bollinger and Wilder Charts Suggesting BottomThe Bollinger chart is on the left and the Wilder chart is on the right. The Bollinger chart shows bullish divergence between price and %B which is confirmed by AD%. See the yellow bars. AD% is a normalized accumulation/distribution indicator. Price has also created a double bottom and closed above the 20-day moving average, triggering a long entry.
The Wilder chart shows bullish RSI divergence with a failure swing (higher low and higher high), as indicated by the yellow bars. ADX is threatening a crossover but has yet to achieve one. The parabolic SAR has triggered a long entry. The two lower indicators are not Wilder indicators, but both are showing bullish divergence.
Note: a 50% retrace was accomplished last week.
I went long two micros after the bell with a stop below the day’s low. I’ll consider closing the trade in part or in full near the 9-week moving average which is near the high from a couple weeks ago at 378.50.
SPY closed at 371.13 today and is currently up after hours as of this writing at 8:27pm EST.
Sushi - Bearish Divergence 4HSushi has ben on the roll recently, with strong bullish pressure making its price reach its multi-month high.
On the 4H time frame SUSHI is forming a bearish divergence with higher highs on the price and lower high on both MACD and RSI.
RSI its losing momentum at the moment of the writing, while still sitting in overbought territory.
I would open a short at these price, with target price at the demand zone at around $1.2. Remember that buying pressure is still very high as highlighted by the volume levels, thus play safely.
DOTUSDT Falling wedge + bullish divergence in many indicatorsThis looks a lot like a reversal type falling wedge pattern + MACD is showing bullish divergence + MACD histogram also showing same bullish div + RSI as well, Bollinger bands are very tight, and the unusual thing is that they have been tight for far toooooo long, so that tells me that volality is very near.
DOTUSDT Falling wedge + bullish divergence in many indicatorsThis looks a lot like a reversal type falling wedge pattern + MACD is showing bullish divergence + MACD histogram also showing same bullish div + RSI as well, Bollinger bands are very tight, and the unusual thing is that they have been tight for far toooooo long, so that tells me that volality is very near.
The art of trading- Spotting Divergences is a good way to be prepared for a potential trend reversal.
- Many peoples are using RSI in a wrong way, as fix point indicator (oversold or overbought).
- in reality RSI is a "Momentum indicator". Point to Point.
- Divergences most of the time are not enough to enter a position but help you to have more nice cards in your hands.
- They can be combined with Trend Lines, Supports/Resistances, pivots, MAs/EMAs and much more indicators.
- More information you get on a trend, more is helpful to be accurate.
- the reverse of the medal is using too many indicators at the same time can make you confuse and doubt.
- Trading is an art but patience a virtue.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Using Zigzag to find patternsZigzag is my favourite technical indicator. Usage of zigzag is often misunderstood. People try to find tops and bottoms and complain that it repaints. Well, zigzag is supposed to repaint its last pivot and it should not be used finding tops and bottoms to enter and exit at the right time. Then, how do we use zigzags?
Main application of zigzag for me is pattern recognition. Just put zigzag on your chart and observe how easy it will become to identify patterns.
The chart below shows double bottom - confirmed by divergence on lower pivots and continuation on higher pivots (price, strength and volume are all making higher high). Having said that, we need to keep in mind the expectations of double bottom pattern and settle for appropriate risk reward.
SHORT or LONG?Right now the trend seems to be moving down and continuing to go even lower. We will have to wait for a potential reversal because I can see a Hidden Divergence. Higher Low and Lower Low on the RSI. Let me know what you guys think.
EURGBP - Possible Short term Buyprice reaches an order block/demand area and forms a QM pattern (higher high and lower low). if price reaches the left shoulder level (fib retracement of 0.718 and 0.886 - best levels for premium or discount ), it could reverse and go bullish . Divergence also occurs at 30M and 1H tf that backs up the bullish behavior. The overall trend is now bearish after it hits a resistance trendline on a weekly tf. So if in case it goes up then it is just short-term.
This is just my analysis. I could be wrong of course.