DJI
$DJI & $NDX very important levels (TSLA trade = fire)The TVC:DJI trade we did ( NASDAQ:TSLA was great) was nice. In & out.
AMEX:UDOW gave back all gains
TVC:NDQ holding better, NASDAQ:TQQQ bit higher (risk reward was good but not for holding longer term)
Point is, NOT RISKING, not convinced downside's over.
AMEX:DIA almost oversold & very close to a VERY IMPORTANT AREA.
Will revisit risk soon, once there.
This is also an important area for $QQQ.
ATM both weaker, could be mid day reversal. We'll see.
My Case For NO 1929 Style (Economic Collapse) + Super Bubble
I see many many articles circulating the similarities of the 1929 "Super Bubble" and see almost all the information is very miss leading and not accurate at all.
We can see the DJI compared to the SPY today is dangerously similar at face value. Enough for anyone with basics to be very nervous about this.
Each cycle has a 1st bubble followed by a 2nd bubble then ending with a gigantic 3rd melt up.
But the truth? we need to take the (CURRCIR) (Currency in Circulation)
as a proxy for the US M2 / M3 for the early 1900s
What we see is there was no debasement "Quantitative Easing" almost no new currency growth meaning it was all leverage based on air. Only after 1930s did we see currency growth.
Fast forward to 1999-2023
We see even before Quantitative Easing (Currency in Circulation) started an uptrend in 2004 going parabolic after 2008. Meaning the "Super Bubble" people are betting shorting right now is completely based on false information. Yes they are all wrong so is most retail.
2023
Adjust the SPY/USM2 supply we see a resistance trend going back to 2002 being hit 5 times, this means the debasement is acceleration coming back stronger every time.
There's a chance something insane will happen where markets will go parabolic almost triple or quadruple the 1929 "Super Bubble"
This will begin when the FRED has to cut or hold rates.
Reserve Banks forced to cut rates due to debt interest (government).
(Global M2 by math will go parabolic) this will flow back into companies / growth stocks.
Bond Yields there's a chance they will not lower and most of the money gets captured by hard asset / growth markets, this includes Bitcoin / Gold.
My thought process here is for the final "Super Bubble" to form from all this debt interest and monetary easing we have to see a blow off top in the SPY/USM2 chart, and you can guess it if the SPY makes all time highs soon while the FRED is planning to cut rates you're going to have all the (Money Market Funds) capital flow back into the stock market, there's currently trillions in short term US bonds meaning anyone purchasing TLT expecting a play for Bond Yields to fall are going to get this very wrong too (unless YCC happens for US Bonds)
So has the bubble busted? based on the math it has just begun we could be in the 1927 stage.
#SP500 UpdateAlthough the count may look complete, the scenario allows that there can be one more wave down before resuming the uptrend.
NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Rising trend breaking downwards in medium long term.
🔹Support at 13700 and Resistance at 15800.
🔹Technically positive for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
SPY - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Rising trend breaking downwards in medium long term
🔹Support at 430 dollars, indicating a potential positive reaction as it rises to 477 or more.
🔹Technically positive for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
DJI - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Rising trend breaking downwards in medium long term.
🔹Support level is around 34425, indicating good buying opportunities.
🔹Support at 34200, potentially indicating a POSITIVE reaction, but a break downwards through 34200 indicating a NEGATIVE signal.
🔹Technically positive for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
Dow Jones Industrial Average Key MomentMACRO MONDAY
Dow Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT
The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) is a price-weighted average of 20 key transportation stocks traded in the United States.
The transportation sector acts as a leading indicator as it is further up the value chain ahead of the final products being sold by companies in Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI. For this reason, in some circumstances we can use the DJT as a helpful leading indicator for the direction of the economy
Currently we are at a critical juncture on the DJT chart as we are testing significant resistance levels
- The DTJ Index is at a critical diagonal and horizontal
resistance level
- A break through or rejection of the resistance will
provide insight into the direction of the economy
- There is a potential Head and Shoulders pattern
that needs to be validated or invalidated which will
be defined by the price reaction to the resistance
zone.
We can observe what happens over the coming weeks and how price reacts to the resistance. Can it break above it and turn it into support?
When the DJI is climbing higher while the DJT is falling, it can be a signal of economic weakness ahead. A divergence of this sort means goods are not being transported at the same rate they are being produced, suggesting a decline in nationwide demand.
This type of divergence occurred prior to the March 2020 crash with the DJT making its ATH in Dec 2020, thereafter the DJI made a new ATH in February 2020 whilst the DJT was closing almost 5% lower making a lower high. Those that study Dow Theory were key observers of the divergence and acted accordingly safeguarding their portfolios.
Thankfully, at present there is no divergence. I will follow up in the comments with a chart showing that the DJI and the DJT are currently very closely aligned. Regardless paying close attention for a divergence could be very beneficial for your portfolio. I will certainly be on the look out and notify you in the event of.
Thanks for reading and welcome to Macro Mondays
PUKA
Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to support area 34628Dear colleagues, I anticipate that the price will continue to decline towards the support area at 34628.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Michael Burry Bets $1.6B On Market Crash - Dow Jones Down 500+Michael Burry has placed a substantial $1.6 billion bet on an imminent stock market crash, representing 90% of his firm's assets.
Known for his accurate prediction of the 2008 US housing market crash which netted him $100 million, Burry's recent move follows a 500-point drop in the Dow Jones in just two days.
Despite this downturn, the Dow Jones has shown a positive trend in 2023, rising over 1,500 points. It's vital for investors to discern between short-lived market shifts and long-term trends.
An in-depth analysis of the Dow Jones reveals a robust support level from December 2022 at $34,712, further reinforced by the daily 50 SMA just beneath.
This strong support could be pivotal in pushing the index upwards, potentially eclipsing its January 2022 record high of $36,952.
DOW JONES First time near the 1D MA50 since July 10.Dow Jones is having the strongest pull-back since late May, so far still within the technical boundaries of the 5 month Channel Up. In doing so, it is only a few points before hitting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact since the July 10 Low. Despite that contact, the index hasn't closed a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 since June 01, which was at the start of that Channel Up Higher Low.
As a result, we remain bullish aiming at a +6.10% rise to 36800, as long as the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50. If it fails we will take the small loss and quick sell instead towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 34200, which is exactly at the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up.
If that scenario is materialized, then we will only buy again after the 1D MACD completes a Bullish Cross, most likely (but not necessarily) closer to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). In that case our buy target will be 36900, just below the All Time High of 2021.
P.S. The 1D RSI already broke below its Higher Lows trend-line, potentially an early bearish warning.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Stocks still struggling - $SPX copying late 2021?The risk in #stocks is still not to the upside.
Took a trade before this rally, but that's it, a trade, already done too.
Lower low today, still expect to be positive for the day, but until we get some sort of reversal, the risk is still to downside. TVC:DJI AMEX:UDOW
NASDAQ:NDX is trying to find a bottom but here's not best place. Very light support.
CBOE:SPX looks weakest of the 3.
We could very well be doing what happened in late 2021. One last hurrah & then kaput.
$DJI has been weak, can it keep going lower?We almost called top on the #indices.
DJ:DJI AMEX:DIA
Daily
Few days ago stated that it could drop 1k points.
Weekly
Yellow areas are the best risk reward entries, for a bounce or if we continue higher.
Monthly
Choppy action is 100% normal since 2018 (Only after CV crash it went straight up). This was not the norm prior to 2018. Usually had few months of up or down patterns.
#stocks AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SDOW
$DJI is at do or die hereDAILY
TVC:DJI is really struggling to hold the green moving avg. (see profile for more info)
#Dowjones RSI is holding the 50 area - Yellow Box.
NOW, pay close attention
IF they break we're looking at likely trendline retest, white line.
That's where the possible 1k point drop idea comes from, mentioned yesterday.
Weekly support, Red Mov Avg, shows another view for the possible, roughly, 1k point drop for the Dow.
#stocks AMEX:DIA AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SDOW
DJI yearly CRASH or Sideways incoming??Looking at past times on DJI yearly time frame where Stoch rsi has crossed below the 80line it has resulted in major market crashes or dead sideways markets for long periods.. With how the economy is world wide at the moment id say things are about to get pre ugly for the markets.
Monthly time frame also trying to set a Lower High.. Not feeling too optimistic
Any thoughts on subject is welcome and would love to hear others opinions on the current state
$DJI holding better than other indicesAMEX:DIA has been pretty resilient lately. Stronger than TVC:NDQ , SP:SPX , & $RUT.
IMO
Even if #inflation goes up, #stocks can follow. Historically, many countries have shown, this has been the case. Eventually, when the music stops it's ugly. But, we'll deal with that when we get there.
Risk is not as bad as it was a few days ago. Risk is waning again.
Let's say, for giggles, 1k more drop for TVC:DJI , not so bad.
DOW JONES The Inverse Head & Shoulders no-one is talking about.The Dow Jones (DJI) index remains within its 5 month Channel Up pattern that started in mid March and recently hit its top. What the majority of the market is missing is a stronger pattern on the wider 1W time-frame. This long-term chart shows that an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern priced its Head (bottom) when the Channel Up started and completed the Right Shoulder on the first week of July.
As a result, the aggressive 3 week rally that followed is a natural consequence of the completion of that pattern, similar to the October - November 2022 rally that led to the start of the IH&S. Such patterns can technically target as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level, which sits just above the 36975 All Time High. As the 1W RSI is bounce on a Pivot level (formerly a Resistance), we have more reasons to continue to be bullish in this market and target first the 35900 Resistance and ultimately the ATH at 36975, potentially all within the boundaries of the Channel Up.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Dow Jones - 10/08Pair : DJI - Dow Jones
Description :
Completed " 123 " Impulsive Wave
Falling Wedge in STF and Rejection from UTL
S / R Level
Fibonacci Level - 38.20% / 50.00%
Divergence - RSI
DIA - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Achieved target at 351 after breaking Rectangle formation.
🔹Supports 342 in NEGATIVE reaction.
🔹RSI curve shows rising trend, supporting positive trend.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
#SP500 Update #SPYThe outlook remains unchanged supported (biased) by similar patterns that I see in precious metals that chose to correlate with US markets thus far.
Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to diagonal lineDear colleagues, I believe that wave 3 has completed and the price is undergoing a correction to at least the 35000 area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Index shows NEGATIVE signal from double top formation, broke support at 15426.
🔹Signals further decline to 15057 or lower.
🔹Supports 13600 and resistance at 15800
🔹Technically NEUTRAL for medium long-term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
