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DJI

DOW Headed up to 37 -> 40kQuick post - Daily 50/200 EMA shows a golden cross, W pattern / double-bottom breakout re-tests have succeeded in staying above the upper trend-line. It also continues bouncing off the 50 EMA. We may find some resistance in the area of the red box. TP 1 is ~37.8k, TP is ~40.2k, expecting a pit stop around 35k in the resistance area as it makes its way towards suggested targets. DXY finds new troughs in correlation with DJI finding new peaks. Our recent lows on DJI correspond to DXY's recent peak. DXY has fallen back to the area where it broke out, suggesting a recovery. Should it remain below 102-103, that recovery could be extended. If it gets and stays well above 103 again, this recovery will be short lived. If DXY turns up above 103 and becomes bullish again, we could see a double-top instead of reaching targets above previous ATH.
TVC:DJILong
by dudebruhwhoa
1
US30 20th JANUARY 2023Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell nearly 2% in Wednesday's overnight market, which was the biggest daily drop for both indices in a month. The decline came after weak economic data was released overnight, reigniting fears of a recession. In addition, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials also further worsened the fundamental mood of investors. Before the wall street stock market opened, US economic data for December showed that retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data fell more than expected, while production at US factories also fell and total output in November was weaker than expected.
OANDA:US30USD
by DNP-FX
2
SPX. The Certainty Trap ‘Never’ &‘always’ have no place in MKTS!Just passing this cool info written by a guy called Ben Carlson. - Ben discusses the differences between probability and certainty: "There are two arguments I see on a regular basis that show up as a result of data overload: …because that’s never happened before. …because that’s what’s always happened before. -The problem with this line of thinking is that it can lead investors to fall into what I like to call the certainty trap. It’s this all-or-nothing line of thinking that causes so many to constantly attach extremes to every single market move or data point they see. The beginning of the recovery or the end of the world is always right around the corner. The assumption is that we’re always either at a top or a bottom when most of the time the markets are probably somewhere in the middle." -The reason the investing certainty trap is so easy to fall for is because historical data can feel so safe and reassuring. Look here, my data says that this has never (always) happened in the past. Surely this trend will continue. I’ll just sit here and wait for my profits to start rolling in. -‘Never’ and ‘always’ have no place in the markets because no one really knows what’s going to happen next. ‘Most of the time’ is a much more reasonable goal, because nothing works forever and always in the markets. If it did everyone would simply invest that way. I think a much more levelheaded approach is to follow the Jason Zweig 10 word investment philosophy: -Anything is possible, and the unexpected is inevitable. Proceed accordingly.
SP:SPXEducation
by samitrading
2
$DJI Inverse Head & Shoulder + Long term data on CrossoversThese are copy paste, pls see our profile IF RIGHT Shoulder, $DJI Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern, holds = STRENGTH 1/2 #DJI RSI WEAKENING, Negative Divergence Last 2 days good SELL volume Some interesting Moving Avg Crossover data on next post 2/2 $DJI Bullish Moving Avg Crossovers TEND to last There's been few times it didn't: Late 99-Early 02 Mid 78-Early 80 June-July 60 July-Sept 56 Feb 47 July 47 Whipsawed 1948 Oct 40-Jan41 Sept 39-Nay 40 Aug 32-Nov 32 You get point #stocks #DJI $DIA $NDX $SPX
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
DOW JONES The High volatility zone continues to pay offThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) followed our previous call (almost) 3 weeks ago to perfection as after trading within the Triangle, it broke to the upside and hit the 34300 target: The strong rejection of this week simply validates the argument that we've made since November, that the blue zone will be a High Volatility region for Dow as it is a confluence of major Support (Bear Cycle Lower Highs trend-line), Resistance (34300 August 16 High) and MA levels (1D MA300 and 1D MA50 (yellow and blue trend-lines respectively)). It is now testing the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line, which if successful can make another trip to 34300. But if it doesn't hold, the real medium-term Support Zone is within the former Lower Highs trend-line and (mostly) the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has already held once successfully on December 20. A break below targets the 31725 Support (1) first and (on a much less likely scenario) the 30100 Support (2) in extension. But why give away our 1D RSI blue-print and the symmetricality of each bullish - bearish phase that has been holding exceptionally well since the February 24 2022 bottom? As we explained in detail in our previous analysis, each bearish phase has been around 250 (4H) candles i.e. roughly 60 days. Considering that this is not a Bear Cycle bearish leg as it is obviously more sideways than making Lower Lows, we should be seeing an end of this phase by the 2nd week of February, if not earlier. Based on the 1D RSI though, it has already started to form the bottoming process (green rectangle) as shown by the previous sequences. As a result, investors should be more patient with such drops and willing to buy the pull-back at this stage, than looking to short to Lower Lows. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
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by TradingShot
5
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 33418.59, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 32573.43, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 34712.28, where the previous swing high is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
TVC:DJILong
by VantageMarkets
1
This chart measures pain.Spoiler alert, there is a lot. Inspired by a fellow trader, link to his idea. He is the reason I took the stock market seriously. An easy-to-explain chart. As NoOneWhoIsSomeone explained better, FEDFUNDS increases when an economy is strong. Therefore it can be a modificator for prices. The FED increases the rate when it smells money, and money smells when there is strength, historically... Now the FEDFUNDS race now is for inflation (amongst other conspiracy stuff) Does this chart work??? I don't know... Orange line: It is SPX in log scale. Blue line: I tried to add in the equation the FEDFUNDS rate. The price of SPX is divided by M2SL. This takes out of the equation the money printing. Now we multiply by 10-FEDFUNDS rate. I could do many different calculations but this is good enough for my knowledge. I am no trader, I have even managed to forget physics I did one year ago, so you could't possibly call me a genius. So take this with a grain of salt. What we find out is a new blue line which could be a measure of today's strength of economy. Throughout history, the two lines followed together, with the blue line surpassing the orange. Therefore the "strength" is higher than the SPX reading. In 2008 the lines followed through in exactly the same fashion. Even in 2000, albeit the blue line being slow, they both reached the same bottom. What we see now is the incredible. The economy's strength is already in trash. And for quite some time... It appears that my extreme ideas are not that extreme after all... Go ahead, post some hate comments below, like some did in the idea I linked. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
2
Falling Dollar Creates Opportunity For Outperformance AMEX:SPY TVC:DXY AMEX:EFA The opportunity presented by a falling dollar: These are simple Yearly Candles. The chart depicts how the falling dollar can provide outperformance in foreign equities vs domestic equities. The top chart is simply a chart of the dollar index. The middle chart is EFA vs SPY. The bottom chart is that of the EFA. Take notice as the dollar weakens - represented in the first chart by red candles - that EFA outperforms SPY as denoted in the second chart by white candles. Since 2002 There have been 9 years in which EFA outperformed the SPY. 7 of the years have been associated with a falling dollar. One of the off years was 2005. The dollar was up, but the overall long term trend was still down. The other off year, was this past year. Even though the dollar was strong it peaked in Q4 and fell precipitately into the new year kickstarting new strength in EFA. The 9 years of outperformance generated positive returns in 7 of those years. The 2 years of negative performance were in 2002 and in 2022. Two of the worst years on record risk assets globally. Those seven years generated returns of: 2003: 38.15% 2004: 17.16% 2005: 11.26% 2006: 23.20% 2007: 7.21% 2012: 14.80% 2017: 21.79% Average Return: 19.08% What is noticeable is how strong the returns can be when the dollar enters a secular decline. 2003 through 2007 was particularly outstanding. During that time the dollar fell by roughly 34%. While there hasn't been a secular decline in the dollar since then, I think it pays to keep an open mind to the possibilities. Funds for the falling dollar: $EFA $VEU $VEA $VXUS
TVC:DXYLong
by Breakout_Charts
3
Longest Wyckoff Distribution Ever.The history of the new world, reduced to its fundamentals. A simple channel and a few important events, define a Wyckoff Distribution. This chart is the DNA of the new world. The end of phase four would be the much-advertised-great-reset. The end of the past 120 years, and a beginning of a new era, if it is for the best or for the worst. I am not very hopeful for the future, but there is hope in the real things. Stay real. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. 120=7,77*7,77*2 120 is a super-cycle. It is the cycle of the cycle of 7.7 years An alternate chart.
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
5
Market Update 11/12/23 With Time Stamps0:00 DXY 2:30 APPL 3:36 NASDAQ 5:10 BTCUSD 8:15 DIA DJI 9:05 What I want to see with the DXY 10:35 What I want to see with the VIX 13:00 HSI Hang Seng Index 15:15 GOLD XAU 16:36 MARA 18:40 NVDA 19:12 DKNG 19:34 PYPL 19:52 Closing/Good bye Just an update from yesterday. Most things seem to be going as expected during this new year. I still expect the DXY to drop to 98.3 or 99.6 before trying to make a good move upwards and possibly bringing the market down, but I am still looking for a potential reversal at 12.324. We are currently under this target and that is why I say reversal. In my mind and at the moment, the odds of the DXY continuing further down are 70/30.
TVC:DXY
by TrendLINEBoys
Peak Equities?Happy Dump Year! What a shocking year... equities dropping, bond market failing and energy skyrocketing. Almost a perfect storm ain't it? But something ain't right... Have we passed the dump year or are we just started? Which number will we be talking about in the future, 22 or 23? And another question... have equities peaked? For the past year, bonds have been outperforming equities. But equities have been holding relatively strong despite the monumental increase in yields. Now we might have reached the point of diminishing returns. Every move we make is beginning to turn up against us. The similarity to the Great Depression is stunning. Stochastics don't help the situation much. Even if a total crash does not occur, the product looks fated to move horizontally. The cover chart pinpoints us on a fib retracement, with much resistance above. The drawn levels were respected throughout the last 15 years. Other equity comparisons follow suit... The charts above attempt to objectively calculate the price of equities compared to the cost of money. This chart below attempts to calculate the excess performance SPX has, compared to the performance of an investment in bonds. It is further modified by PPIACO, the producer price cost. Printed on the chart are some beautiful bull flags, and some very historically-important retracements. Equities will have much trouble gaining traction compared to bonds. This year, the relative performance of equities compared to bonds, showed a 60% drop. So 2022 was definitely a Dump Year. This is massive of a figure for the equity market, measured as relative performance. Also the bond market has suffered a lot this year. If equities have already sustained a massive hit compared to bonds, who will be the next to take the dive? Since their product (their cumulative profit) has just now showed signs of stagnation. Will equities drop again or bonds, or both? It smells like 2023 will have some sort of dump... An analysis of equity mutual funds compared to bond-focused mutual funds could have a lot to say... I leave it as an exercise for the TradingView community. Feel free to tag me if you analyze anything regarding it! PS. Happy Dump Days as of now (The peak of the product chart), for the main indices are: DJI: Nov. 8, 2022 SPX: Nov. 10, 2022 NDQ: Oct. 25, 2022 Take a look at price action of the indices after that day if you are curious on how real prices translated from that day onwards. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
9
DJI/GOLD to drop longterm?It may not be that simple... Now that inflation is in the headlines, I decided to "follow the herd" and post an idea regarding it. To compare the current financial market with the market 100 years ago, one may analyze the pairs DJI/CURRCIR, or DJI/ GOLD . From the chart is trivial to realize that DJI/ GOLD historically moves inside the blue channel. Historically the following occurred in this specific order. A. The ratio increases from the bottom of the channel (without a significant change of course) to the top of the channel. B. RSI maximizes and then breaks it's increasing trendline. C. Near the RSI trendline break , price breaks it's trendline. D. Then a retest of the price trendline occurs. Only then the drop is significant. E. Price reaches the bottom of the channel. F. After a while, the middle of the channel is tested with a significant reaction to the downside. (In 1976 it caused the ratio to stop growing and the price went below the channel) G. The price now increases from the bottom of the channel, and the cycle repeats... Right now we are are in a make-or-break moment. We haven't reached the top of the channel and already the RSI trendline is violated to the downside and RSI indecisively fluctuates a little above the 50 mark. Shortly after the attempt passing the channel axis, a rejection occured. The price trendline is violated to the downside. It seems a second trendline exists now and looks intact. On the chart there are 3 very distinct cycles, which peaked in 1929, 1966 and 1999. The cycle lasts about 35 years. I find it very interesting that it is that consistent. Maybe the 35 year cycle is not that consistent and we are in an abrupt stop. And in the years following having DJI/ GOLD drop significantly. And it makes sense for a drop in stocks and gold exploding. We are talking about food shortages, water shortages and war. This is not a recipe for success for stocks. Most companies need a calm climate to grow. Or maybe in the end, even though we talk about inflation , money losing it's value and the economy being in the brink of collapse, we will grow until 2030 and then we collapse. After all, recessions happen when noone expects them to. We are also above the 1M, 3M Ichimoku clouds. Who knows what will happen? I certainly don't know what will happen. My gut feeling is "way down we go". It may be a controlled demolition of the stock market, but I don't think we have much room to grow for now in absolute terms.
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
6